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How is the Irish Fish Market Performing?

Data to 18 June 2017

Source: Kantar Worldpanel. Data to 18th June 2018

Definitions

How does fish’s performance compare to other proteins and who is a typical fish shopper? Total Fish

Overview of the drivers of Frozen Fish’s performance and a look at Branded vs PL and retailer performance Frozen Fish

Overview of the drivers of Fresh Fish’s performance looking at Prepacked vs. Loose and Raw vs. RTE, species and retailers Fresh Fish

Coated Fish, Ready Meals, Prawns, Mussels Focus on…

Today’s Agenda

Contents


Definitions of the Category & Sub-Categories

Raw Fish which needs heat applied to it before eating RTE: Fish which can be unpackaged and consumed immediately

RTC Fish which has been prepared to provide final product for the consumer and is ready to cook

Frozen Fish

Prepacked

Loose

RTC

RTE

RAW

RTC

RTE

RAW

Total Fish

Fresh Fish


Definitions of the Sectors Sector Definition Includes/Excludes

Total Fish All Fish – Fresh and Frozen excluding ambient fish All Fish – Fresh and Frozen excluding ambient fish

Coated All Breaded Fillets, Battered Fillets, Dusted Fillets including all Breaded, Battered & Dusted Whole Shellfish including Tempura Prawns

Excludes Breaded & Battered with Sauce, breaded & battered fingers, bites, goujons, cakes etc, filo prawns and breaded/battered fish with chips/potato and smoked coated fish

Fish Cakes/ Burgers All breaded/battered/dusted/seeded fish cakes and fish burgers even those with sauce in the middle of them

Excludes any options with other proteins/carbohydrates and smoked fish cakes/burgers

Fish Fingers/ Goujons All breaded/battered/dusted/seeded fish fingers and fish goujons

Excludes any options with other proteins/carbohydrates and smoked fish fingers/goujons

Fish Bites/ Crunchies All breaded/battered/dusted/seeded fish bites, nuggets, shapes, croquettes, dippers and crunchies. Also popcorn prawns

Excludes any options with other proteins/carbohydrates and smoked fish bites/crunchies

Flavouring/ Marinade All fish and shellfish with flavouring/butter/marinade/topping/ glaze/dressing/ vinegarette that is not a complete ready meal

Excludes fish and shellfish with sauce and smoked fish with flavouring/marinade

Flavouring/ Marinade Smoked

All fish and shellfish with flavouring/butter/marinade/topping/ glaze/dressing/ vinegarette that is not a complete ready meal made with smoked fish

Excludes fish and shellfish with sauce and products with flavouring/marinade that do not use smoked fish

Source: Kantar Worldpanel


Sector Definition Includes/Excludes

Natural All natural raw fillets of fish and shellfish without any sauce/butter/ marinades/ crumb/toppings/additions

Other

All value added fish and shellfish that is not a main meal or with sauce such as Kievs, Spring rolls, parcels, filo prawns, prawn toast, starters for fish, shellfish, tartlets, wellington, terrine, dressed crab/lobster, dinner food excl carbohydrate, fish with toppings, sausages, tartlets, appetisers, party food

Ready Meals

All complete fish and shellfish ready meals (with carbohydrate/vegetables) Excludes separate dinner components such as quiche, Kiev, mornays or any starter type products where smoked fish is not the main ingredient

Smoked All natural smoked fish including BBQ fish Excludes any smoked fish with flavouring/marinade, smoked coated fish, smoked fish with sauce or smoked fish as the main ingredient in fish cakes/burgers, ready meals and other

Scampi All scampi products either wholetail langoustine or reformed scampi with whitefish

Surimi All surimi products

Sushi All sushi products

With Sauce All fish and shellfish with sauce including prawns cocktail with sauce, fish mornays, fish with sauce

Fish and shellfish with marinades, toppings and other flavourings and complete ready meals and does not contain smoked fish as the main ingredient



Pre Family: 1 to 2 person households under 44 years without children

Young Family: Younger households under 34 years with children

Middle Family: Families where main shopper is between 34-44 years and they have children

45+ Family:-Families where main shopper is 45+ years and they have children 15 years and under

Older Dependents: This is a 45+ year household with 3+ persons in the household (no children)

Empty Nesters: Older 45+ year households with 1 to 2 people and no kids

*Please note that Children are defined as being 16 years and under.

Lifestage Definitions



7

Total Grocery Headlines

Total Fish Overview –

Fresh & Frozen

Fresh Fish Overview

Loose Fish Performance

Prepacked Fish

Performance

Focus on…

• Mussels

• White Fish

Looking Ahead:

Emerging Trends in Total

Grocery


€10.3bn +2.9%

€2.4bn +3.5%

+1.6% +0.5% +0.2%

+0.4% +3.2% -1.1%

Frequency Packs per Trip Price per Pack

Total Grocery Market Value and YoY Growth

52w/e 18th June 2017

12w/e 18th June 2017



Fresh & Chilled

Produce

48.2%

Ambient Food 28.2%

Household 6.6%

Frozen 4.7%

Alcohol 7.6%

Share of total trolley 4.9

4.2

3.7

3

3

2.9

2.1

-0.2

Alcohol

Total Healthcare

Frozen

Ambient

Fresh & Chilled

Total Grocery

Total Toiletries

Household

Healthcare 1.1%

Toiletries 3.8%

52 w/e 18th June 2017

YoY % Change in Value Sales

TOTAL GROCERY – SECTORS VALUE SHARE & YOY % CHANGE

Alcohol is driving the YoY growth of the Total Grocery market. Fresh & Chilled and Frozen both growing ahead

of the market.


Retailer Share & YoY Growth

SuperValu has the greatest market share over the latest 52 weeks, however it has lost share since LY

22.5 22.9 21.7

10.9 11.2

21.8 22.5 22.1

11.1 11.3

Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Aldi Lidl

52 w/e 19 Jun 16 52 w/e 18 Jun 17

-0.4

1.1

2.9

3.8

4.7

5

Tesco

SuperValu

Total Market

Lidl

Dunnes

Aldi

52 w/e 18th June 2017

Lidl, Aldi & Dunnes grow ahead of the market.

YoY % Change in Value Sales Retailer % Share of Value Sales


Retailer Share & YoY Growth

SuperValu has also maintained first position in the latest 12 weeks, however only 2 ppts stand in the way of

Tesco stealing the top spot.

22 22.5 21.4

11.2 11.7

22.1 22.3 21.6

11.2 11.7


12 w/e 19 Jun 16 12 w/e 18 Jun 17

2.5

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.8

4.5

SuperValu

Lidl

Total Market

Aldi

Tesco

Dunnes

12 w/e 18th June 2017

YoY % Change in Value Sales Retailer % Share of Value Sales




Fresh & Frozen


Fresh Fish Overview

Prepacked Fish

Performance

Focus on…

• Mussels

• White Fish

Looking Ahead:


Grocery


Fish Drivers of Growth

52 w/e 18th June 2017 vs LY

95.8% 27.4 times €11.73

Penetration Frequency Price per KG

€245m

Volume per Trip

0.5 kg +4%

Total Fish

Fresh

Frozen

+0.3ppt +0.1% +0.3% +2.5%

84% 21.1 times €14.40 €175m 0.4 kg

+5.7% +1.5ppt +0.2% -1.5% +4.5%

83.4% 11.7 times €8.02 €70m 0.5 kg

-0.1% -0.3ppt -1.6% +3.1% -1.8%


Fish accounts for 2.4% of the Total Grocery Market.

6.6

4.2

4

2.9

1.6

-3.5

Beef

Poultry

Fish

Total Grocery

Lamb

Pork

52w Total Grocery – value % change YoY

3.3 4.9

1.1 1 2.4 Total Grocery

Total Poultry

Total Beef

Total Pork

Total Lamb

Total Fish

*Includes Fresh & Frozen Products

Value %

52 w/e 18th June 2017

It is outperforming its growth at +4% YoY.


Protein Drivers of Growth

-2.4% +0.1ppt +€0.20

Poultry

Beef

Lamb

Pork

Fish

97.3% 31.8 times

+4%

1.1 kgs

+1.8%

€5.73

+0.3%

41 times

+3.1%

0.8 kgs

+2.4%

€9.20

-9.9%

11.6 times

+13.9%

0.8 kgs

-1%

€10.74

-7%

15.7 times

+1.3%

0.8 kgs

+3.1%

€6.74

+0.1ppt

96%

-0.4ppt

62.6%

-1.1ppt

80.5%

+0.1% +0.3ppt

95.8% 27.4 times

+0.3%

0.5 kgs

+2.5%

€11.73

Penetration Frequency Price per KG Volume per Trip

Total Fresh & Frozen – 52 w/e 18th June 2017


Protein Shopper Overlap

Fish

Poultry Beef

Other

1.4%

0.9% 0.4%

0.1%

2.2%

0.4%

0.6%

1.8%

0.2%

0.1%

12.2%

1.9%

0.2%

3.2%

74.5%

Market Penetration = 99.7%

The strongest relationship exists between the white meats.

Penetration %

The majority of shoppers buy across all meat types.


Who is a Seafood Shopper?

35

20

26

18

21

26

16

16

22

12

3

10

12

21

16

25

30

24

28

18

17

27

20

19

18

14

5

13

16

19

17

16

Dublin

Rest of Leinster

Munster

Connaught+Ulster

Class AB

Class C1

Class C2

Class D

Class E

Pre-Family

Young Family

Middle Family

45+ Family

Older Dependents

Empty Nesters

Retired

Fresh Fish Total Grocery

25

23

32

20

16

25

21

19

19

13

5

13

16

20

17

16

Frozen Fish

52 w/e 18th June 2017

% Share of Value Sales

C2 AB & E


Total Fish Overview : In Summary

• Total Fish growing at +4% YoY, outperforming Total Grocery market, but underperforming vs Beef & Poultry.

• Beef & Poultry both driving increased volume per trip, while Total Fish is flat on this KPI.

• The majority of Irish shoppers (74.5%) buy across all meat types.

• Fresh Fish growing ahead of Frozen (+5.7% vs. -0.1%), driven by more shoppers, paying higher prices.

• Fresh Fish over-indexes among Empty Nesters & Retired shoppers based in Dublin.

• Frozen Fish over-indexes among Empty Nesters outside of Leinster.




Fresh & Frozen

Fresh Fish Overview


Prepacked Fish

Performance

Focus on…

• Mussels

• White Fish

Looking Ahead:


Grocery


Prepacked vs Loose Value Share & Change

25.2 24.1

74.8 75.9

Va

lue

Sh

are

%

June 2016

Loose Loose Pre-Packed Pre-Packed

June 2017

+13.3% +7.2% +1.2% -3.3%

Prepacked accounts for the majority of Fresh Fish sales and is driving growth in the category. Although Loose is growing at

a slower rate than prepacked, its performance has turned a corner since LY.

Total Fresh Fish Value

€175m

+5.7%


Fresh Fish has mostly gained spend from existing shoppers spending more vs LY.

432

7,873

-45

10

-2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Total Switching

Shoppers Held

Shoppers Lost

Category Arrivals

Source of Fresh Fish Spend (€000s) Change - 52 w/e 18 Jun 2017

819

384

134

69

45

42

4

0

-393

-672

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000

Fresh Pork

Fresh Lamb

Total Frozen Poultry

Total Frozen Fish

Frozen Beef

Frozen Lamb

Frozen Pork

All Others

Fresh Poultry+Game

Fresh Beef

Switching Spend (€000s) to Fresh Fish - 52 w/e 18 Jun 2017

Some spend has also been gained by shoppers switching from Fresh Pork & Lamb, however there

has also been a movement in spend away from Fish, into Fresh Beef & Poultry.


Value Growth YoY

14.8

25.9

21.5

5.3

8.3

16.2

7.0

15.2

24.3

20.7

4.7

10.3

17.0

6.9

Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Marks &Spencer

Aldi Lidl Other Outlets

19-Jun-16 18-Jun-17

-6.3

-1.1

2.0

3.9

5.7

8.4

11.3

31.1

Marks & Spencer

SuperValu

Dunnes

Other Outlets

Total Market

Tesco

Lidl

Aldi

Fresh Fish Retailers Value Share and Change

The Discounters, particularly Aldi, have had the strongest YoY growth.

Value %


SuperValu & Dunnes are driving the price of Fresh Fish up in the market, while Aldi & Lidl are driving growth

in shopper numbers.

18-Jun-17 vs. Previous Year

Total Species | Fresh | Total Market | 52 w/e | Previous Year

Fresh Fish Retailers – Drivers of Performance


Top 5 Species

Value

Growth Market

Share

Volume

Growth

+15.2% +8.4% +6.3% 53.6

11 8.9

2.7 2.4

51.7

11.4 10.7

4.4 3.9

Salmon Cod TotalPrawns

Hake Trout

52 w/e 19 Jun 16 52 w/e 18 Jun 17

+0.2 ppt +6.1%

-1.1% +0.5%

Fresh Fish in Tesco

C2DE Social Class

Older Dependents &

Retired

Dublin, Connaught & Ulster

Value Share % Demographics over-indexing in Fresh

Fish vs Total Grocery in store


Fresh Fish in SuperValu

Value

Growth

Market

Share

Volume

Growth

24.3% -1.1% -9.5% 50.2

10.8 7.7

4.9 3.9

44.8

12 11.8

6.4 4

Salmon Cod Hake TotalPrawns

Coley

52 w/e 19 Jun 16 52 w/e 18 Jun 17

-1.1ppt -7.6%

+0.1% +9.3%

Who are SuperValu’s Fresh Fish

Shoppers?

ABC1 Social Class

Older Dependents &

Retired

Dublin



Top 5 Species


Fresh Fish in Dunnes

Top 5 Species

Value

Growth

Market

Share

Volume

Growth

20.7% +2% -8.8% 56

12.5 6.4 5.2 3.5

59.4

11.6 7.4

4.1 3.5

Salmon Cod Hake Coley TotalPrawns

52 w/e 19 Jun 16 52 w/e 18 Jun 17

-0.7ppt -2.6%

-4.8% +11.8%

Who are Dunnes’ Fresh Fish

Shoppers?

ABC1 Social Class

Retired

Dublin, Connaught &

Ulster




Fresh Fish in Aldi

Top 5 Species

Value

Growth

Market

Share

Volume

Growth

10.3% +31.1% +23.3%

58.7

7.8 7.1 4.6 4.6

53.9

10.6 6.9 5.3 4.2

Salmon Cod TotalPrawns

ColeyMackerel

52 w/e 19 Jun 16 52 w/e 18 Jun 17

+6.1ppt +3.1%

+0.7% +0.1%

Who are Aldi’s Fresh Fish

Shoppers?

ABC1 Social Class

Older Dependents &

Retired

Dublin & Munster




Fresh Fish in Lidl

Top 5 Species

Value

Growth

Market

Share

Volume

Growth

17% +11.3% +17.3%

46.5

16.4

8.9

4.8 5.2

48.8

19

7.5 5.8 5.4

Salmon CodMackerel

Haddock Fish andShellfish Mix

52 w/e 19 Jun 16 52 w/e 18 Jun 17

+3.2ppt +4%

+4.1% -5.1%

Who are Lidl’s Fresh Fish

Shoppers?

ABC1 Social Class

Older Dependents,

Empty Nesters & Retired

Dublin Value Share %

Demographics over-indexing in Fresh



Fresh Fish Overview : In Summary

• Prepacked driving the growth in Fresh Fish (+7.2% vs Loose +1.2%).

• Majority of spend has come through existing shoppers spending more vs last year.

• The Discounters had the strongest YoY growth in Fresh Fish, driven by increased shopper numbers.

• SuperValu is declining and losing market share as shopper numbers decrease and remaining shoppers reduce their

purchase frequency.




Fresh & Frozen

Fresh Fish Overview


Prepacked Fish

Performance

Focus on…

• Mussels

• White Fish

Looking Ahead:


Grocery



Total Species | Total Market | Fresh | Loose | 52 w/e | Previous Year

Loose Fresh Fish has seen some growth this year, however this has been driven only by a

significant increase in average price, as shoppers drop out of the category & frequency and

volume per trip decline.


vs. Previous Year

Total Species | Total Market | Fresh | Loose | 12 w/e | Previous Year

The latest 12 weeks have been more positive for Loose fish, as along with continued higher prices,

an increase in shopper numbers has contributed to the YoY growth of +6%.


Breaking Down the Loose Fish Category

Loose

+1.2%

(24.1%)

Raw

+1.1%

(97.1%)

RTC

-3.2%

(2.6%)

Whole

-8.5%

(9.5%)

Fillet

+2.1%

(89.6%)

Natural

+0.4%

(91%)

Smoked

+16.3%

(6.2%)

YoY % Change & Value Share %

Who is driving the growth of Loose?

Families +18%

ABC1 Social Class +5.3%

Shoppers in Munster +7.8%


Loose Fish Species Value Share & Change

Hake was the fastest growing species, at almost +34% YoY. Cod also saw strong growth and is gaining share,

while Salmon, which accounts for 40.2% of the market, is in decline.

41.5

20.6

5.7

3 2.7 2.8 2.5

40.2

22

7.5

2.9 2.8 2.6 2.3

Salmon Cod Hake Haddock Whiting Mackerel Coley

52 w/e 19 Jun 16 52 w/e 18 Jun 17

-6.1

-5.9

-3.5

-2

4.5

8.2

33.9

Coley

Mackerel

Haddock

Salmon

Whiting

Cod

Hake

% Share of Value Sales YoY % Change in Value Sales


Loose Fish Species Performance Drivers

Salmon’s decline this period is primarily due to a number of shoppers no longer buying the species, as well as less volume

bought per trip.

-10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Total Species

Cod

Coley

Haddock

Hake

Mackerel

Salmon

Whiting

Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Volume (kg) Price per kg

Hake’s growth came through a significant amount of new shoppers paying higher prices.


SuperValu has the greatest share of Loose Fish (38.1%), however its sales are declining YoY.

10.6

39.7

24.3 24.5

9.7

38.1

24.2 26.3

Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Other Outlets

52 w/e 19 Jun 16 52 w/e 18 Jun 17

-7.7

-2.7

0.7

1.2

8.2

Tesco

SuperValu

Dunnes

Total Market

Other Outlets

*”Other Outlets” includes Fish Mongers, Road Side Stalls, Butchers, Other Grocers

Other Outlets are driving the growth in Loose Fish at +8.2% YoY and are gaining market share.

Retailer % Share of Value Sales



Loose Fish Retailer Performance Drivers

Shoppers have left the category across all of the retailers as price has risen. Growth in Dunnes & Other Outlets

has also come through shoppers repurchasing loose fish more frequently than LY.

-8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Total Market

Tesco

SuperValu

Dunnes

Other Outlets



Retailer Opportunity if Fresh Fish shoppers were converted to purchase from the Loose Counter.

35 37

33

8.7

21

11

Tesco SuperValu Dunnes

Total Fresh Fish Loose

Size of Prize for each

retailer if they could convert

just 1% of their Fresh Fish

buyers to purchase from

the Loose Counter:

Conversion Rate 25% 57% 32%

€165k €282k €317k P

en

etr

atio

n %


Loose Fish Performance : In Summary

• The growth of Loose (+1.2%) has been driven purely by increased average prices.

• In the shorter term (12w/e), increased shopper numbers as well as higher average prices have contributed to the

stronger growth of +6%.

• Smoked Loose Fish makes up only 6.2% of sales, but has seen strong growth of +16.3% YoY.

• Salmon has the largest share of the market, but is in value decline of -2%, due to shoppers dropping out of this species

& remaining shoppers purchasing less volume per trip.

• Hake saw the strongest YoY growth of +33.9%, driven by an increase in shoppers paying higher prices.

• Tesco & SuperValu’s sales declined, due to a loss of shoppers & less trips. Other Outlets saw strong growth, driven by

higher prices

• The greatest opportunity for Loose exists in Dunnes. If the retailer could convert 1% of their Fresh Fish shoppers to

purchase from the Loose Counter, it would be worth €317k.




Fresh & Frozen

Fresh Fish Overview


Prepacked Fish

Performance

Focus on…

• Mussels

• White Fish

Looking Ahead:


Grocery


vs. Previous Year

Total Species | Total Market | Fresh | Prepacked | 12 w/e | Previous Year

Prepacked Fresh Fish – Rolling 12we Performance

The key factor driving growth in prepacked fish this year has consistently been new shoppers buying into the

category. In the latest 12 weeks, increased shopper numbers was the key contributor to the +12.8% growth.


Older and Post - Families

C2DE Social Class

Shoppers in Munster & Dublin

Which shoppers are driving the growth in prepacked?

1.8

12.6

-10.8 -8.7

-3.9

17.7

14.3 16.2

11.3 9.2

1.7

11.1

4.7



Prepacked

+7.2%

(75.9%)

Raw

+9.7%

(43.6%)

RTE

+2.8%

(33.6%)

Whole

-18.4%

(1.4%)

Fillet

+6.1%

(89.1%)

Natural

+8.6%

(43.4%)

Surimi

-2.9%

(0.3%)

RTC

+9.5%

(22.8%)

Meats

+25.2%

(16.8%)

Smoked

-0.4%

(26%)

Coated

-1.6%

(6%)

Flavourings /

Marinade

+8.6%

(12.8%)

With

Sauce

+45.2%

(4.1%)

Ready

Meal

+9.2%

(2.2%)

Breaking Down the Prepacked Fish Category Performance



Prepacked

+7.2%

(75.9%)

Raw

+9.7%

(43.6%)

RTE

+2.8%

(33.6%)

RTC

+9.5%

(22.8%)




Raw is driving growth through increased shopping trips & higher prices, while RTC is attracting the

most new shoppers & RTE is driving volume per trip.

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Total Prepacked

Raw

RTC

RTE



Prepacked

+7.2%

(75.9%)

Whole

-18.4%

(1.4%)

Fillets

+6.1%

(89.1%)

Meats

+25.2%

(16.8%)




Fillet & Meats are bringing new shoppers into the category and are being repurchased more

frequently. Fillets have also increased in price, while greater quantities of Meats are purchased per

trip.

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Total Prepacked

Fillet

Meats

Whole



Prepacked

+7.2%

(75.9%)

Natural

+8.6%

(43.4%)

Surimi

-2.9%

(0.3%)

Smoked

-0.4%

(26%)

Coated

-1.6%

(6%)

Flavourings /

Marinade

+8.6%

(12.8%)

With

Sauce

+45.2%

(4.1%)

Ready

Meal

+9.2%

(2.2%)




Natural & With Sauce sectors are driving the price up of prepacked fish. Added Value sectors are

bringing in new shoppers.

-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Total Prepacked

Coated

Flavourings or Marinade

Natural

Ready Meal

Smoked

Surimi

With Sauce



13.6

86.4

9.8

90.2

Branded PL

52 w/e 19 Jun 16 52 w/e 18 Jun 17

13.3

-13.4

19.1

7.2

-22.7

11.9

Total Fresh

Branded

Private Label

2015-2016 2016-2017

Prepacked Fish Brands Value Share & Change

Sales of Branded prepacked fish continue to plummet, now accounting for only 9.8% of the market.

All of the growth in prepacked fresh fish is through Private Label.



Retailer Performance of Branded vs PL Prepacked Fish

Branded Fresh Fish sales are in decline across all retailers apart from Aldi, which has grown its sales of

branded over 79% YoY.

9.8

20.7 14.7

10.7 4.5 1

90.2

79.3 85.3

89.3 95.5 99

Total Market Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Aldi Lidl

Branded PL

-0.5

-26.6

-33.5

79.6

-53.7

15.7

6.7

9.6

29

11.9

Tesco

SuperValu

Dunnes

Aldi

Lidl

Private Label Branded



Which species are driving the growth of Prepacked?

Hake, Trout, Prawns & Fish and Shellfish Mix have seen huge YoY growth in sales, while Mackerel & Seabass

have sharply declined.

54.4

9.2 7.2

4.2 3.7 3.5 4.1 2.4 1.9 2.3 1.3 1.3

53.4

9.5 8.2

5.6 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.8 2.1 2 0.9 0.9

19-Jun-16 18-Jun-17

-21.9

-11.8

-6.7

-2.8

3.2

5.1

5.2

7.2

10.1

21.2

22

27.7

43.2

Sea Bass

Mackerel

Fish Mix

Crab

Coley

Salmon

Haddock

Total Species

Cod

Fish and Shellfish Mix

Total Prawns

Trout

Hake



11.9 times

Prawns 5.9 times

Cod 4.4 times

Mackerel 3.7 times

Hake 3.6 times

Coley 3.6 times

Fish &

Shellfish Mix 3.6 times

Which Prepacked Species are purchased most frequently?

Salmon


Prepacked Species Mapped

A high number of shoppers & shoppers buying often is what makes Salmon, as well as Cod & Prawns, the

most valuable fish types.

Total Species

Cod

Coley

Crab

Fish and Shellfish Mix Fish Mix

Haddock Hake Mackerel Total Prawns

Salmon

Sea Bass Whiting

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Pe

ne

tra

tio

n %

-Actu

al

Frequency-Actual

Bubble Size = Spend (€000)

More

Shoppers

More Trips


Best Performing vs Worst Performing Species – What are the performance drivers?

Sea Bass has lost shoppers, which is causing its huge decline, while shoppers are repurchasing Mackerel less

often at lower prices.

Hake, Trout, Prawns & Mix have all gained new shoppers & more trips.


Prepacked Fish in the Retailers

Lidl has the greatest share of Fresh Prepacked Fish, and is growing ahead of the market, along with Aldi &

Tesco.

16.2

21.3 20.5

11.1

21.6

16.9

19.9 19.6

13.5

22.2

19-Jun-16 18-Jun-17

0.0

2.5

7.2

10.4

11.9

30.7

SuperValu

Dunnes

Total Market

Lidl

Tesco

Aldi

Retailer % Share of Value Sales YoY % Change in Value Sales


Prepacked Fish Retailers Performance Drivers

Tesco, Aldi & Lidl all driving growth in shopper numbers and frequency of purchase.


Prepacked Fish in the Retailers

Top 3 Species by Retailer – Value Share %

54.5

10.6 10.4

52.9

12.3 10.1

Salmon Total Prawns Cod

55.1

11.1 7.8

48.2

17

9.9

Salmon Hake Total Prawns

63.3

6.2 5

67.1

6.6 4.7

Salmon Cod Total Prawns

58.6

7.7 7.1

53.9

10.6 6.9

Salmon Cod Total Prawns

46.5

16.3

9

48.9

18.7

7.6

Salmon Cod Mackerel


In Which Retailers is there Opportunity to Grow?

Opportunities for prepacked fish exist in the Multiples. The biggest opportunity lies in SuperValu at €6.1m.

19.0

24.5

21.0

12.2

13.2

16.9

19.9

19.6

13.5

22.2

Tesco

SuperValu

Dunnes

Aldi

Lidl

Fresh & Chilled Fresh Prepacked Fish

89

81

93

111

168

Value % Index

€2.8m

€6.1m

€1.9m


Prepacked Fish Performance : In Summary

• Strong growth (+7.2%) due to increase across all shopper metrics

• Older shoppers in Dublin & Munster driving growth of prepacked.

• Added Value formats (eg. With Sauce / Flavours & Marinades / Coated / Ready Meals) are attracting new shoppers.

• PL driving the growth as Branded continues to decline in value sales.

• Hake, Trout, Prawns & Mix saw strongest growth, driven by increased shopper numbers & more frequent purchases.

• Seabass & Mackerel saw greatest decline. Lost shoppers and decreased volume per trip drove Seabass’ decline, while

Mackerel shoppers paid lower prices and repurchased less often than LY.

• Aldi, Tesco & Lidl growing ahead of the Total Market, due to increased shopper numbers and more frequent trips.

• Opportunities exist for Dunnes, Tesco & SuperValu if they were to achieve their fair share in Prepacked Fresh Fish.




Fresh & Frozen

Fresh Fish Overview


Prepacked Fish

Performance

Focus on…

• Mussels

• White Fish

Looking Ahead


Mussels Drivers of Growth

The value of Mussels has declined by -15% YoY. Despite gaining additional shoppers, people did not re-

purchase as frequently as LY, and lower prices also contributed to value losses.


Who is a Mussels Shopper?

Mussels shoppers are less affluent and slightly younger than the average fish shopper.

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Shoppers

Aged 45+

C2DE Social Class

Mussels

Total Fish


6.7% 2.1 times 0.6kg €5.39

June 2016

June 2017

€929k

€765k

5.9% 2.4 times 0.65kg €5.89

Fresh Mussels

Despite an increase in shoppers to the category, Fresh Mussels have declined across all other KPIs.


Mussels : In Summary

• Mussels sales decline by -15% YoY.

• Despite an increase in shoppers into the category, lower prices and shoppers purchasing less often contributed to the

decline.

• Mussels shoppers tend to be younger & less affluent than the average Fish shopper.




Fresh & Frozen

Fresh Fish Overview


Prepacked Fish

Performance

Focus on…

• Mussels

• Fresh White Fish

Looking Ahead:


Grocery


White Fish has a strong majority share of the Frozen sector. However Salmon rules the Fresh

sector, leaving White Fish with just under 30% market share.

42.7

38.6

18.7

Total White Fish Total Salmon All Others

29.6

75.2

50.2

9.7

20.2

15

Fresh

Frozen

Total White Fish Total Salmon All Others

Value Share % : Total Market (Fresh & Frozen)

Value Share %


Fresh White Fish is growing ahead of the market at +10.5% YoY. Driven by an increase in shopper numbers

and shoppers repurchasing this fish type more often than LY.

Fresh White Fish Drivers of Growth


Prepacked vs Loose Fresh White Fish – Value Share & Change

White Fish has turned its performance in the Loose category around, growing at +8% this year. However

Prepacked continues to gain share, growing ahead of loose at +12% YoY.

63.4 64.2

36.6 35.8

Va

lue

Sh

are

%

June 2016

Pre-Packed Loose Loose Pre-Packed

June 2017

+8% +12% -5.2% +9.7%


% Share of Value Sales

Who is a Typical Fresh White Fish Shopper?

Class ABC1

Class C2DE

Pre-Family

Young Family

Middle Family

45+ Family

Older Dependents

Empty Nesters

Retired

Dublin

Rest of Leinster

Munster

Connaught+Ulster

White Fish Total Fresh Fish

C2DE Social Class

Older Dependents

Dublin & Munster


SuperValu has the greatest share of Fresh White Fish.

12

27.7

24.6

6.3

14.5

12.3

29.8

20.7

9.2

15.4


52 w/e 19 Jun 16 52 w/e 18 Jun 17

-7.2

10.5

13.5

17.3

18.5

60.6

Dunnes

Total Market

Tesco

Lidl

SuperValu

Aldi

Aldi has seen the strongest YoY growth, whereas Dunnes is the only retailer in which sales of

fresh White Fish have declined.

Retailer % Share of Value Sales YoY % Change in Value Sales


The Discounters are driving the growth in shopper numbers, attracting additional shoppers to

purchase Fresh White Fish in store. SuperValu & Tesco are driving increased trips for White Fish.

-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Total Market

Tesco

SuperValu

Dunnes

Aldi

Lidl



Retailers opportunity for growth

15.2

24.3

20.7

10.3

17.0

12.3

29.8

20.7

9.2

15.4

Tesco

SuperValu

Dunnes

Aldi

Lidl

Total Fresh Fish White Fish

81

123

100

89

91

€600k

€1.5m

Value % Index

€800k

The greatest opportunity for Fresh White Fish to grow exists in Tesco. If the retailer could achieve its fair

share of the category, it would be worth an additional €1.5m.


Fresh White Fish : In Summary

• White Fish accounts for 29.6% of the Fresh Fish category, and is growing ahead of the market at +10.5% YoY.

• Additional shoppers to the category & shoppers repurchasing more often contributed to the growth of White Fish.

• Strong growth in both Loose (+12%) & Loose (+8%).

• White Fish over-indexes among Older Dependents in Dublin & Munster.

• SuperValu has the greatest share of Fresh White Fish, & is growing ahead of the market due to increases across all KPIs.

• Aldi had the strongest YoY growth of +60.6%, primarily due to an increase in shoppers.

• There is an opportunity of €1.5m for Tesco if it could achieve its fair share of Fresh White Fish.


TODAY’S AGENDA



Fresh & Frozen

Fresh Fish Overview


Prepacked Fish

Performance

Focus on…

• Mussels

• White Fish

Looking Ahead:


Grocery


Shoppers have become more concerned about

Is not the only factor influencing shopper’s

purchase behaviour

Shopper are willing to pay a premium price for certain

grocery market categories


+239%

+€12.7m

1

+119%

+€3.3m

5

+122%

+€8.5m

4

+173%

+€5.7m

3

+192%

+€5m

2 Total Grocery

Market has grown

by 9% over the

last 5 years

+7% Frequency

+8% Packs per Buyer

+6% Spend per Buyer


-42.7%

-€14.9m

-28.2%

-€16.4m

-29.8%

-€6.8m

-31.3%

-€4.3m

-36.5%

-€5.5m

72% Sugar

Agree that they are trying to restrict the amount of sugar in their

diet

76% Diet

Agree that their diet is important to them


80 79 80 77 77

73 72 70

75 75 76 71 70 69 69

66

When shopping for groceries I

consider price to be the most

important factor

45 48 47

43 40

38 38 36

I will switch the brand I buy if

an alternative is on offer

I regularly shop around to

make sure I get the best

offers

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwif35PIjJfQAhVE2hoKHT_2BPQQjRwIBw&url=https://crisisboom.com/tag/food-prices/&psig=AFQjCNEt2s7qoyW1EN7Q-YeodM6RewTYCw&ust=1478623632343403

http://www.google.ie/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjrz7XBjpfQAhXEChoKHb9zDd8QjRwIBw&url=http://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Regulation/Less-healthy-foods-have-too-many-promotions-Which&bvm=bv.137904068,d.d2s&psig=AFQjCNH8q4mrU7BI_S6MSg7cg4AhrgWXiw&ust=1478624174807032

http://www.google.ie/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwihoJejj5fQAhXGAxoKHUY1DPEQjRwIBw&url=http://blog.lendingclub.com/get-a-better-rate-shop-around-for-loan-rates/&bvm=bv.137904068,d.d2s&psig=AFQjCNGYEKjFwlfoHqm4gb3Lkk3yhgpwFA&ust=1478624354570702


15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

A M J J A S O N D J F M M A M J J A S O N D J J F M A M J J A S O N D J J F M A

On Promotion

% Packs sold on promotion

Total grocery 12we

At Total Grocery level, promotions are in decline

2017 2016 2015 2014


% Packs sold on

Promotion

% change

promotions

Categories driving

decline on promo

30.6% 31.4% 34.9% 15.3% 17.5%

+0.2% -14.1% -8.9% -12.4% -9.8%

Promotions across Retailers

All retailers have decreased their % packs sold on promotion. The main categories reducing

promotions are Alcohol, Ambient Bakery and Fruit and Veg.

LY 31.4% LY 36.6% LY 38.7% LY 18.0% LY 20.2%

http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://users.skynet.be/sky39402/Images/lidl.gif&imgrefurl=http://users.skynet.be/sky39402/germany.htm&usg=__DdNvfiBGF7UaINW1K-c3BHncyYQ=&h=308&w=310&sz=11&hl=en&start=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=Rqc6LfyvSorLrM:&tbnh=116&tbnw=117&prev=/images?q=lidl&hl=en&rlz=1T4GGLT_enGB336GB336&sa=N&um=1

http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://blog.al.com/frugalmom/2008/03/medium_aldiLogo.gif&imgrefurl=http://blog.al.com/frugalmom/2008/03/aldi_update.html&usg=__pW_4YuM24aS84SOIKqa_Xet1B0s=&h=288&w=240&sz=21&hl=en&start=2&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=JW00Q-kpdMWNwM:&tbnh=115&tbnw=96&prev=/images?q=aldi&hl=en&rlz=1T4GGLT_enGB336GB336&um=1


FRESH MEAT

+2.1%

FRUIT & VEG

+1.5%

CONFECTIONERY

+1.6%

ALCOHOL

+2.1%

CHILLED BAKERY

+0.9%

Consumers behave differently to different categories

YoY Change in Price Per Pack By Segment – 52 w/e June 18th 2017

EVERYDAY LOW PRICES PREMIUMISATION

AMBIENT BAKERY

-1.2%

BISCUIT

-1.8%

DAIRY

-2.3%

CANNED GOODS

-2.6%

CHILLED CONVENIENCE

-2%

PACKET BREAKFAST

-2.7%

FROZEN FOOD

-1.5%


• Loose

• Long Term – Some growth, turning last year’s decline around. Driven purely by increased prices.

• Shorter Term – Stronger growth, due to an increase in shopper numbers alongside higher prices. Shoppers

are willing to pay a premium price.

• Greatest Opportunity in Dunnes: If 1% of the retailer’s Fresh Fish shoppers were converted to purchase

from the Loose Counter, it would be worth an additional €317k.

• Prepacked

• Driving the growth of Fresh Fish, as all shopper metrics have increased.

• Fish with Added Value, such as Sauce and Marinades, are the strongest performing sectors.

• The Discounters & Tesco are driving the growth of prepacked

• Opportunities to grow the category exist for the top three Multiples – size of prize if SuperValu were to

achieve fair share is €6.1m.

• Older Demographics based in Dublin & Munster are our most valuable shoppers in prepacked.

Key Takeaways

For further information contact

Ian Mannix – [email protected] or

Gavin McGrath – [email protected]

how is the irish fish market performing?€¦ · how is the irish fish market performing? data to...

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