how the looming debt bomb will crush the dollar

8/9/2019 How the Looming Debt Bomb Will Crush the Dollar

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Inflation is already here. It returned to positive territory in November, according to a report fromthe U.S. Bureau ofLabor Statistics. The consumer price index (CPI) increased 1.8% from a yearago, the first positive reading since February 2009. Prices increased 0.4% on a month to monthbasis, and 4.8% on an annualized basis

But this is just "core inflation,"w

hich excludesfoo

d and energy.

I don't know about you, but I have to buy food and gas every week... so my wallet takes a majorhit every time these prices go up. But, the U.S. government conveniently leaves these out...painting an inflation picture that is far removed from reality.

Fact is, real inflation is rapidlyapproaching 10% and will only getworse. Inflation devalues the dollarby reducing purchasing power anddriving prices up.

At some point, even if the economyis slowing, the Fed will have to stepin and raise interest rates. This willcause the trade deficit to explode.

Then, hold on to your hat as risinginflation prompts employees todemand higherwages to keep upwith consumer prices, adding fuel tothe fire. It's a vicious circle that canturn the economy into a race tounload dollars for tangible goods.

Americans have doubled

down on debt

Americans will be in for a rude awakening in coming months when they discover the true scopeof the massive national debt racked up by the U.S. government.

The go

vernment's debt has almo

st do

ubled in the last two

years alo

ne. At the same time,Americans' personal wealth sank - along with housing prices.

But the U.S. debt bomb has only just begun to tick.

Within the next 12 months, the U.S. Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-termdebt. And that's not counting any additional deficit spending, which is estimated to be around$1.5 trillion this year alone.


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So looking only at short-term debt, we know the Treasury will have tofinance at least $3.5trillion worth ofmaturing debt in the next 12 months, an amount equal to nearly 30% ofourentire GDP.

Currency speculato

rs have a rule: ino

rder to

avo

id a default, c

ountries sh

ould maintain hardcurrency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term foreign debt maturities.

Now You Can Get Richer:

y Each time Congress goes on a billion-dollar spending spree...y Each time hedge funds and Wall Street pile into gold to hedge their equity

positions...y Each time countries like China move out of the US dollar and buy (even more)

massive quantities ofgold...

Each of these things has caused the yellow metal to soar recently, and it's not going to stopanytime soon. One of the easiest ways to take advantage of it is this one thing you can dowith aslittle as $10 and 10 minutes - from yourown computer. Discover it here.

The U.S. holds 8,133.5 metric tons ofgold worth around $300 billion. The U.S. has strategicpetroleum reserves of725 million barrels. At current dollar prices, that's roughly $58 billionworth ofoil. And according to the IMF, the U.S. has $136 billion in foreign currency reserves.So altogether... that's around $500 billion of reserves.

Total domestic savings in the U.S. are only around $600 billion annually. Even ifwe all putevery penny ofour savings into U.S. Treasury debt, we're still going to come up nearly $3trillion short.

So the question is: How in the world can the Treasury get $3.5 trillion in only one year?

The answer is obvious: the printing press. The Fed will take up the slack by printing money outof thin air and exchanging it for IOU's from the Treasury, further devaluing our currency andgovernment bonds.

When Will Creditors Unload Treasuries?

Around the planet, concerns are already mounting about the U.S. debt bomb.

The cost to insure Treasury debt with credit default swaps (CDS) on the over-the-counter marketrose by a whopping 66% in the fourth quarter, according to an index compiled by CMADatavision. The index is a benchmarkfor the cost ofprotecting bonds against default -- anincrease indicates a deterioration in perceptions ofcredit quality.

Only the U.K. and Greece had worse performing CDS'.

The biggest question is how long will it take forour creditors (mainly China) towake up and


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wonder how they're actually going to get repaid. Ifyou can't pay offall ofyourforeign debts inthe next 12 months with hard reserves, you're a terrible credit risk.

Before long, speculators will start targeting our bonds and currency, making it impossible torefinance our debts. And that's when the trouble starts. Interest rates go up dramatically. Funding

co

sts so

ar. The party'so

ver.

As an alternative to U.S. debt China has already begun the process ofdiversifying its reserveholdings away from the dollar. And China isn't alone -- other emerging markets are going thesame route.

The Indian and Russian central banks have stopped buying Treasury bills and begun to buyenormous amounts ofgold. The Indians bought 200 metric tons in November. Sources in Russiasay the central bank there will double its gold reserves.

Sooneror later, our creditors will face a stark choice: Hold our bonds and continue to see the

value diminish slow

ly,o

r try to

escape to

go

ld and see the valueof

their U.S. bo

nds plummet.

All of this will lead to a severe devaluation of the U.S. dollar, or even a default. Based on ourneed to refinance over $3 billion in debt in the next year, expect it to happen within 18 months.

One Stock to Buy Now

When the dollar takes a nosedive and its prospects for a turnaround dim, investors will flee thecurrency and take refuge in hard assets - most notably oil and gold. But don't just buy gold barsor bullion... lookfor a company that leverages the price ofgold forrealgains.

That co

mpany is Yamana GoldInc. (

NYSE: AUY).

Yamana Gold is a growing gold producerwith a $6.8 billion market capitalization that made anunexpectedly good profit in the fourth quarterof2008. What's more, its gold production isexpected to double to 2.2 million ounces per year by 2012, primarily from its Brazil andArgentina mines.

Yamana is also expanding both production and reserves (currently 19.4 million ounces) withoperations in Canada and Latin America. That's because Yamana Gold went on a spending spreein the past two years, buying up junior mines around the world to lock in reserves.

E

ven better, becauseY

amana is a go

ld pro

ducer it benefits

fro

m leverageo

n the priceof

go

ld.Here's how: Ifgold trades at $1000 and it costs the miner $500 to produce, they pocket $500 inprofits. Ifgold moves up to $1200, but production costs remain at $500, profits move up to $700- without having to mine any more gold! That's $200 higher than before, or a 40% increase from$500 profits. The miner's shares are then likely to appreciate by some 40% as well, while goldonly appreciated by 20%. Pretty good deal.


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The Municipal Memoisa Legislative Reference Service completedby the Office ofLocal Government Assistance.Billsar e groupedby category (ie.Schools, Citiesand Towns).Bart BertholicYou canview any ofthe...

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DivisionofM unicipal Finance One Capitol Hill, 4thFloor Providence, R.I.02908-5 873Offi ce ofLocal Government Assistance One Capitol Hill, 3rdFloor Providence, R.I.

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y 78%Rhode IslandMunicipal Finance:

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y 54%Office ofthe Secretary ofState:A. RalphMollis: State Archives

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how the looming debt bomb will crush the dollar

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