how to beat mos need to understand how it works mos does well when: –weather is close to...
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HOW TO BEAT MOS
• Need to understand how it works
• MOS does well when:– Weather is close to climatology
(equations lean toward the modal case)
• MOS does poor when:– Weather departs from climatology
( the “outliers” of the scatter plot)– Bad model data used as input (GI=GO)
MOS: Equation Development
Y1 = mx1 + b1
850mb Model Temp VS. Observed Surface Temperature
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-10 0 10 20 30 40
Observed Surface temperature (C)"THE PREDICTAND"
Mo
del
Pre
dic
ted
850
mb
tem
p (
C)
(30
hr.
fcs
t, v
alid
18z
):"T
HE
PR
ED
ICT
OR
"
HOW TO BEAT MOS
• Forecast lower than MOS by day if:– It’s precipitating– Overrunning situations– Spatially thin, optically thick cloud (non-climo)– Snow cover– Shallow cold air mass– Sea breeze in hot air mass with cold water– Expected air mass will be record-breaking
MOS ERROR: OVERUNNING
850mb Predictor gives a very poor forecast!
MOS ERROR: SPATIALLY THIN/OPTICALLY THICK CLOUD
MOS ERROR: Shallow Chill
MOS ERROR: Shallow Chill
MOS ERROR: Shallow Chill
MOS ERROR: Shallow Chill
Beating MOS
• How to account for shallow chill problem:– Recognize pattern– Look at 2m temps from model (ETA/AVN)
• If much colder than MOS, then lower MOS
MOS ERROR: FRONTS
Relaxed gradient aloft gets translated to the surface
MOS ERROR: FRONTS
Relaxed gradient aloft gets translated to the surface
HOW TO BEAT MOS
• Forecast higher than MOS by day if:– Mainly sunny– In warm sector
• Especially if in the cooler season and it’s breezy
– Expected air mass is record-breaking
HOW TO BEAT MOS
• Forecast lower than MOS at night if:– Clear– Calm– Low dew points– Snow cover
• (unless its ‘climatological’!)
HOW TO BEAT MOS
• Which city is more likely to have the bigger bust in the following situation?– Clear skies, light winds, snow cover
• ST. LOUIS vs. INTERNATIONAL FALLS
HOW TO BEAT MOS
• Forecast higher than MOS at night if:– Cloudy– Breezy– Not precipitating
MOS ERROR: CYCLONE
HOW TO BEAT MOS
• PRECIPITATION– Will tend to miss mesoscale events tied to
topography• Lake-effect• Under predicts upslope areas, Over predicts in
downslope areas
• WIND– A little inflation of sustained winds
HOW TO BEAT MOS
• Other considerations:– NGM beyond 48-hours …. Watch out!– Beware if MOS exceeds 850mb ‘rules’– Lean toward MOS product that makes the
most sense:• (i.e. AVNMOS: 65F NGMMOS: 72F and character
of day: optically thick/spat. thin overcast)
– If unsure, go CONSENSUS MOS ............ wins over long haul!
– Analogous thickness methods
HOW TO BEAT MOS
• Analogous thickness approach– Use analogous thickness method to “advect”
mos errors to forecast location!– If MOS is busting at upstream site and same
weather regime is heading to forecast site, then assume error will continue!