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Comprehending
the 2009 Construction
Marketplace
Understand
Prepare
Grow
April 7, 2009 I Las Vegas
Strategic Briefing for
Rusty Sherwood I Vice President
Things aren’t great, but
hang in there…
better days are ahead!
Understand
Prepare
Grow
April 7, 2009 I Las Vegas
Strategic Briefing for
Rusty Sherwood I Vice President
Trends
US & Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM
– Workforce/Labor
– Innovation
– Materials
– Project Delivery Methods
4:3
$463B
$131B
< 2700 sec
Trends
US & Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM
– Workforce/Labor
– Innovation
– Materials
– Project Delivery Methods
Context
Stimulus
09/10 Impact
Trends
Resources
5 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
The McGraw-Hill Companies –Essential Information & Insight…
$6.7 Billion in Revenue (2007)… 280 offices in 40 countries.
Leader in every market we serve.
6 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
HistoryFounded by James H. McGraw, Frederick W. Dodge
and Clinton Sweet Over 100 Years Ago
TodayServes One Million Customers Within the $4.6
Trillion Global Construction Community, Helping
Industry Enterprises Save Time, Money and Energy
McGraw-Hill ConstructionMarket leadership for more than a century…
Leading provider of
construction information
Founded over 100
years ago
Key industry alliances
Over 1,000,000
customers
Serving the private
sector, government and
financial communities
7 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
20+ National Alliances
40+ Regional Alliances
Cover Wide Range Business Opportunities
Formation of Construction Industry Association Council (CIAC)
New Association Affinity Program
McGraw-Hill Confidential
McGraw-Hill ConstructionAlliances / partnerships
8 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Vision: To transform the
Global Construction Industry by
setting new standards through
connecting people, projects
and products
Mission: To provide our
customers with sales,
marketing and workflow
solutions that will help them
get smarter, get seen &
selected, find & manage
opportunities, and sell &
market smarter
McGraw-Hill ConstructionVision and Mission
140,000
9 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Serving Your Business Needs Four Ways…
MHC
Research & Analysis
Create / verifyStrategic Plans
Forecast Current andPotential Opportunity
Assess Brand andMarket Preferences
Confirm Expansion
Plans based on Opportunity /
Competitor Relationships
Analyze Business Impact ofKey Trends -Interoperability, GreenConstruction
MHC Network®
& Dodge Database
Identify & Manage
New Project Opportunities
Target Key Owners / GCs
based on ideal project profiling
Target underserved prospects
based on competitor behavior
Access Custom project
Information to meet
specific business needs
Accelerate sales with
pre-qualified targeted leads
MHC Network® Express
& Performance Tracking
Integrate Project Information
Into Your CRM /
Business Workflow
Create Executive Dashboards:
- Actual growth vs. market potential
- Specification rates vs. potential
Measure Customer Satisfaction
Strategic Solutions
to
Get Smarter
Sales Solutions
to
Find Work
Productivity Solutions
to
Do Work
Increase Efficiency of Business
Processes, and Build Project
and Employee Productivity
Identify Key Project
Opportunities, and Increase
Your Company’s Backlog
Analyze, Identify and
Evaluate Market Conditions
and Opportunities
MHC Integrated Media:
Print, Online, Events
Reach and Influence
Key Decision-Makers
Create Awareness and
Educate Owners & Contractors
Attend & Sponsor
Key Industry Events
Create Integrated Print, Online,
and Events Programs that Reach
Target Audiences When and
Where they Work
Marketing Solutions
to
Get Seen
Build Your Company’s Market
Presence & Identity
for ConstructionTechnology
10 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Trends
US & Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM
– Workforce/Labor
– Innovation
– Materials
– Project Delivery Methods
Stimulusthe big picture
11 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Economic Crisis = Opportunity?
Major component of recovery policies –federal and state
Key to job creation
12 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
The U.S. Economic Recession has Deepened
GDP Pattern:
History Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010
+2.0% +1.3% -2.5% +2.0-2.5%
Change in Employment
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Thousands of Workers
Jan.'09
-598,000
Full Yr. 2008
3 million jobs lost
Real GDP Growth - Quarterly
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Annualized Percent Change '08 Q4
-3.8%
Three Part Recovery Plan
Stimulus Bill
Financial Rescue Package
Housing Rescue Package
13 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Major Negative – Lending Standards Still Tight
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Survey of Bank Lending Officers Percent Reporting Tighter Lending Standards --
Commercial Real Estate Loans
Financial rescue effort from Fall ’08
has not yet had positive impact.
Obama Administration’s financial
rescue effort – still waiting on
details.
Tight lending continues to
impact construction activity.
Chicago Spire
World Trade Ctr. Towers 2,3
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Survey of Bank Lending Officers Percent Reporting Tighter Lending Standards --
Commercial and Industrial Loans
14 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Another Constraint – State & Local Finances
State & Local Governments
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Year-End Balance, Percent of Expenditures
.
Numerous states facing large budget
gaps for Fiscal Year 2009, including -
Shortfall $ bil.
California $35.9
Illinois 8.0
New York 6.4
Florida 5.7
New Jersey 3.7
Massachusetts 3.3
Arizona 2.7
Georgia 2.3
Pennsylvania 2.3
Virginia 2.3
Also –
20 states have implemented cuts to K-12
education, 6 states proposing cuts
28 states have implemented cuts to public
colleges and universities.
Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Source: National Association of State Budget Officers
Year-end Balance of State Governments
15 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
$787.2 BillionAmerican Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
…the most sweeping
economic recovery
package in U.S.
history…
President Barack ObamaSigned Denver, CO
“
”
16 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
How the Construction Industry… benefits from the Stimulus
Will stimulate more construction activity in 2009-2011
Adding 7.6% to bring total construction in 2009 to $463 Billion
Adding 10.6% in 2010 to bring total construction to $509 Billion
17 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Enacted on February 17
Total: $787.2 billion (over 10 years)
– $308.3 billion appropriations spending
– $211.8 billion tax cuts
– $267.0 billion direct federal spending
• State fiscal stabilization, unemployment insurance, etc
Construction Spending Share (included in appropriations)
– ENR estimate: $131 billion
• Note: some line items are for capital programs (equip’t as well as construction, eg, transit, airport baggage screening)
Surprises
– Pleasant - $8 billion for high-speed rail corridors
– Unpleasant – No line item for school construction
18 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Distributing the stimulus money
– States: about $40 billion, including…
• Highways: $26.7 billion
• Transit: $7.8 billion
• EPA Clean Water SRF: $4 billion
• EPA Drinking Water SRF: $2 billion
• State energy offices: $3.1 billion
– Federal Agencies: about $90 billion, including…
• DOE: $27 billion (including $11 billion for Smart Grid)
• GSA: $5.55 billion (including $4.5 billion for green building upgrades)
– $750 million for courthouses, other federal buildings
– $300 million for border stations
• DOD: $6.6 billion (repairs, upgrades, energy improvements, barracks, medical buildings)
• VA: $1.25 billion (hospitals and other medical facilities)
19 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Transportation
– Highways: $27.5 billion
– Transit: $8.4 billion
– Rail: $9.3 billion
• Includes $1.3 billion for Amtrak; $8 billion for high-speed rail
– Transportation Security Administration: $1 billion to buy, install explosive-detection, airport screening equipment
Environment
– EPA clean water and drinking water SRF’s: $6 billion
– Corps of Engineers: $4.6 billion
– DOW environmental cleanup: $6 billion
– EPA cleanup, including Superfund: $1.2 billion
Energy
– Electricity grid: $11 billion; “Smart-Grid” investment: $4.5 billion
– Renewable energy loan guarantees: $6 billion
– Tax credits for renewable energy projects extended• Wind energy extended through 2012
• Biomass and geothermal extended through 2013
20 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Buildings
– GSA federal buildings, energy-efficiency upgrades: $4.5 billion
– Construction funding for such agencies as NSF, NIH
– DOD restoration, modernization of facilities: $4.2 billion
– Veterans Administration: $1.3 billion for hospital upgrades
– HUD public housing capital fund: $4 billion
– HUD redevelopment of abandoned, foreclosed properties: $2 billion
Schools
– No specific line item. ($20 billion in House and Senate version)
– Renovation funding could come from $39.6 billion in bill’s State Fiscal Stabilization Fund
21 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Looking ahead…
– Federal reports (DOD, VA “expenditure plans) due 30 days after enactment.
– GSA “detailed plan by project”, due 45 days after enactment.
– Obligation deadlines:
• GSA, $5 billion obligated by Sept 30, 2010, other $550 million by Sept 30, 2011. No penalty in the act for missing deadlines
• VA construction funds, available until Sept 30, 2010.
• DOD/military construction funds, available until Sept 30, 2010
• DOD operation and maintenance funds (repairs, modernization available for obligation until Sept, 30, 2010.
• Army Corp of Engineers civil work funds, no expiration date for funding
• Highways, FHWA apportioned funds to states on March 2 releasing $26.7 billion for projects
– States must obligate 50% of funds 120 days from apportionment (about July 1). Obligate next 50% one year after apportionment
– Use it or lose it – unobligated money redistributed by US DOT
– State agencies file progress reports 90 days, 180 days, one year, two years, three years after enactment
22 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
“Buy American” provisions (section 1605 in the Act)
– No stimulus funds can be used for a project “unless all of the iron, steel, and manufactured goods used in the project are produced in the United States.
– But there are exceptions…
• If a federal agency head finds that the Buy American provision “would be inconsistent with the public interest”, or the US-produced iron, steel, or manufactured goods are not “in sufficient and reasonably available quantities and of a “satisfactory quality”, or they would increase the project cost by more than 25%.
• Act also says Buy American section “shall be applied in a manner consistent with the United States obligations under international agreements.”
23 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Financial Stability Plan
Proposed February 10. “A work in progress.”.
Goal: inject as much as $2.5 trillion into banking system
Parts:
more funding for ailing banks
create mechanism for private investors to buy toxic securities
expansion of Federal Reserve program to encourage consumer lending
Housing Rescue Plan
Proposed February 18. Further details provided on March 4.
Total Cost: $275 billion, could help 9 million homeowners
Parts: Remove limit on refinancing for “responsible homeowners.
Allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to guarantee refinancing on mortgages valued at more than 80% of homes value.
Help renegotiate loan terms for “at-risk homeowners”, create a $75 billion program to subsidize loan modifications
Incentives for lender: $1,000 upfront payment for every loan modified.
$200 billion to back Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Purchases of stock, to reduce concerns about solvency.)
U.S. Macroeconomic Picture Two other keys to economic recovery…
24 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Trends
US & Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM
– Workforce/Labor
– Innovation
– Materials
– Project Delivery Methods
Construction Impact
2009 - 2010
25 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Total Construction Starts
Helped by Stimulus Bill in 2009-2010
- 11%+10%
- 14%
Total Construction Starts Including Stimulus Effect
(Billions of Dollars)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total Stimulus
-15%+10%
26 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Highway and Bridge Construction
Big Winners Under Stimulus
Highway and Bridge Construction
(Billions of Dollars)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Stimulus
+15%
+10%
-2%
27 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Environmental Public Works
Will See Big Boost from Stimulus
Environmental Public Works
(Billions of Dollars)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Stimulus
+8%+10%
+2%
28 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Other Public Works, Including Transit/Rail
(Billions of Dollars)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Stimulus
Other Public Works Will Benefit
Significantly from More Transit/Rail Funds
+4%+5%
-9%
29 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Electric Utilities Will Stay
at High Volume with Push from Stimulus
Electric Utilities, Including SmartGrid
(Billions of Dollars)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Stimulus
- 25% - 3%
+ 65%
30 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Public Buildings, While a Small Category,
Will Receive Large Stimulus Boost
Public Buildings
(Billions of Dollars)
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Stimulus
- 1%- 5%
+7%
31 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Healthcare Construction Starts
(Billions of Dollars)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Stimulus
Healthcare Facilities Will Get Slight Benefit
from Stimulus After a Record 2008
- 14% - 3%
+27%
32 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Educational Buildings Will Settle Back,
Diminished Prospects for Stimulus Boost
- 9%+5%+8%
Educational Buildings
(Billions of Dollars)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Stimulus
- 9%+5%
33 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Multifamily Housing Weaker in 2009,
Slight Benefit from Stimulus Expected in 2010
- 31%+18%
- 35%
Multifamily Housing
(Billions of Dollars)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Stimulus
- 31%
+18%
34 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Office Construction in Retreat,
Slight Stimulus Benefit (via Gov’t. Offices)
- 20%- 6%
- 6%
Office Construction Starts
(Billions of Dollars)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Stimulus
- 20% - 6%
35 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Store Construction in Sharp Correction,
No Expected Benefit from Stimulus
- 20%- 5%
- 28%
Stores and Shopping Centers
(Billions of Dollars)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
- 31% - 5%
36 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Hotel Construction in Sharp Correction,
No Expected Benefit from Stimulus
- 27%- 12%
- 7%
Hotels and Motels
(Billions of Dollars)
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
- 38%- 12%
37 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
U.S. Total Construction Starts for 2009-2010Billions of Dollars
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total Construction 670.3 689.6 639.2 548.1 463.1 509.3+13% +3% -7% -14% -15% +10%
Single Family Housing 315.5 272.4 201.2 122.4 85.1 115.0+12% -14% -26% -39% -30% +35%
Multifamily Housing 68.6 69.8 61.8 40.0 27.6 37.8+36% +2% -12% -35% -31% +18%
Commercial Bldgs. 72.2 93.0 100.9 84.1 61.3 58.2+7% +29% +8% -17% -27% -5%
Institutional Bldgs. 100.1 110.8 117.2 128.3 119.3 121.0+12% +11% +6% +9% -7% +1%
Manufacturing Bldgs. 10.1 13.5 19.8 27.3 17.8 16.0+26% +33% +47% +38% -35% -10%
Public Works 96.0 112.4 121.5 118.2 130.5 141.9 +9% +17% +8% -3% +10% +9%
Electric Utilities 7.9 17.7 16.8 27.7 20.7 20.0+6% +125% -5% +65% -25% -3%
38 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Points of Perspective – U.S. Construction
85
100
115
130
145
160
175
190
T T+2 T+4 T+6 T+8 T+10 T+12 T+14 T+16 T+18
1982-1991
1991- 2005
1975-1982
Cyclical Trough (T) = 100, Based on Constant 2000 Dollars
Years from Cyclical Trough
Total Construction Activity by Cycle
1991-2009
39 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Trends
US & Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM
– Workforce/Labor
– Innovation
– Materials
– Project Delivery Methods
Trendsshaping construction
40 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Global Construction
41 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Worldwide: Sharp Declines in 2009
Source: China, India, USA: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Database,
January 28, 2009 Update. UAE figures: Oxford Economics, January 19 2009;
Real GDP Growth, Annual % Change
9.3
7.3
5.16.5
13.0
9.08.0
2.82.0
1.1
-1.6
1.61.8
4.5
9.8
6.7
11.6
7.07.4
9.4
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
China
India
UAE
USA
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
42 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Dubai Today: The Bubble has Burst
Global Financial Crisis Has Reached UAE
– Tighter lending standards
– Property values spiraling 30-50%
Construction Grinding to a Halt
– “Wait and See”
– Developers citing significant profit losses
– Layoffs due to cancelled or halted projects
– Expats fleeing
Abu Dhabi & Rest of Region Holding Steady
43 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
India Market: Mixed Bag
Declines in private funding & foreign investment
– Drops in economic growth
– Residential, hospitality and retail particularly hard hit
– Increase in risk aversion
Indian Financial Institutions Hold Steady
– Historically conservative lending has kept banks afloat
– No major changes until new administration in late 2009
Construction Opportunities Persist
– Consistent demand for infrastructure projects (power, transport)
– Rebound expected in SEZs, hospitality and education projects
44 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
China: Construction Opportunities Persist
Export-Driven Economy Hit Hard by Global Crisis
– Manufacturing sector declining due to slowed global trade
– 4,000 factories closed in 2008, 20 million jobless migrant workers
– Falling property prices
Government Action Expected to Buoy Market
– $586bn stimulus package announced
– Interest Rate cuts
– Significant Investment in Infrastructure Projects
– Urbanization Leading to growing Consumer class; Retail sales up 21% in 2008
45 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Green is a Silver Lining in the Down Economy
46 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total North
America
Australia/New
Zealand
Middle
East/North
Africa
Worldwide Market Growth
= 2008
= 2013
Europe South
America
Asia Sub-
Saharan
Africa
36%
73%
Percentage of Firms Largely Dedicated to Green
(on over 60% of projects) from 2008-2013
Doubling
29%
56%
47 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Upper Market Size
Lower Market Size
Mark
et
Siz
e
$ (
bil
lio
ns)
2005 2008 2013
In the U.S.: Increasing Market Opportunity
Total Non-Res Residential Total Residential Total Non-Res ResidentialNon-Res
Triple
Double
TripleFive
Fold
48 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Green Wins in Stimulus: Renovation Gets a Boost in Green
Much of Public Building $$ to Green Renovation Projects
– GSA $4.5 billion
– DOD $4.2 billion
– VA $1 billion
Tax breaks for ResidentialEnergy Efficiency expanded & extended
49 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Green Wins in Stimulus: Big Focus on Renewable Energy
Investment in Renewable Energy & Conservation
– "Smart-Grid" activities $11B
– Energy efficiency grants $6.3B
– Renewable energy loan guarantees $6B
Incentives: Manufacture of Green Energy Products
50 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Perceived Advantages of Building Green from AEC firms and Owners
Decreased Operating Costs: 8-9% 13.6%
Increased Building Values: 7.5% 10.9%
Improvement in ROI: 6.6% 9.9%
Increased Occupancy: 3.5% 6.4%
Rent Rise: 3.0% 6.1%
Increased revenue flows: 71% 77%
Increased profits: 59% 61%
Advantages are Increasing Over Time!
2005 2008
51 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Market is Growing Despite Declining New Building Construction
$182 Billion
$3 Billion
$29 Billion
$245 Billion
= Commercial & Institutional Market
= Green Market
Source: Commercial & Institutional Market Size: McGraw-Hill Construction, as of January 27, 2009. MHC Housing Starts data is similar to the Census Bureau, except that MHC defines single family housing as detached housing only. MHC includes townhomes in its multifamily data.Green Market Size: Commercial & Institutional Green Building: Green Trends Driving Market Change, McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008
$208 Billion
52 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Residential Green: Upward Growth as Total Home Market Falls
$384
Billion
$7
Billion
$133
Billion
$20
Billion
= Residential Market
= Green Market
Source:
Residential Market Size: McGraw-Hill Construction, as of January 16, 2009. MHC Housing Starts data is similar to the Census Bureau,
except that MHC defines single family housing as detached housing only. MHC includes townhomes in its multifamily data.
Green Home Market Size: Green Outlook 2009: Trends Driving Change, McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008
53 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Rapid Growth of LEED in Specs
54 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Labor Force: Increases from Stimulus, especially Green Jobs
Stimulus Bill Labor Specifics
–$3.95 billion training and employment services
–$500 million for job training in energy efficiency (out of above $$)
–$250 million toward creation of Job Corps Centers
Stimulus Package Funding Creating Opportunities for Green Jobs
–Federal Facilities Retrofit: Energy Efficiency
–Renewable Energy: SmartGrid Investment Green Jobs
55 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Other Industry Trends– Interoperability/BIM
– Climate Change
– New Materials Trends
– Prefabrication & Modularization
– PPP
– Stimulus Influence on Products/Trades
56 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Interoperability: Eliminating Waste & Increasing Productivity
StructuralEngineer
HVACEngineer
City
Constr.Manager
FacilitiesManager
BuildingOwner
CivilEngineer
Architect
StructuralEngineer
HVACEngineer
City
Constr.Manager
FacilitiesManager
BuildingOwner
CivilEngineer
Architect
StructuralEngineer
HVACEngineer
City
Constr.Manager
FacilitiesManager
BuildingOwner
CivilEngineer
Architect
BuildingInformation
Model(BIM)
Traditional Information Exchange Interoperable Exchange
Source: International Alliance for Interoperability, 2007
57 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Litigation
Phase
Making the Case:Shift to Digital Design
Design Design Devel Const Docs Construction
Eff
ort
Time
Traditional
DesignDigital
Design
Digital Design shifts the bulk of project work to the
Design phase to help coordinate building systems
and the project and manage project costs
Source: International Alliance for Interoperability, 2007
58 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Adoption of BIM Increasing Over 2009
% of Total Projects
2008
38%
17%10%
35%
Expected % of Total Projects
2009 18%
20%
17%
45%
1-15%
16-30%
31-59%
>60%
33%41%
12%
45%
21%12%
32%
10%
14%
11%
12%
16%
8%
22%
11%
36%
35%
20%
20%
21%
10%
12%
8%15%
46%41%38%35%54%43%
23%
43%
20092008200920082009200820092008
60%+
31-59%
16-30%
1-15%
Architects Engineers Contractors Owners
59 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Measuring BIM ROI:Factors Considered
Top 4 most important factors:
– Improved project outcomes
– Better communication through 3-D visualization
– Positive impact of winning projects
– Higher productivity of personnel
60 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Climate Change Transforming Construction
Increased frequency of natural disasters
Rising water level
*************** Increase in tracking carbon footprints
– Emergence of carbon credit exchanges (Chicago, Northeast, West)
– EPA programs like Climate Leaders
– Tracking and reporting footprint in GreenSource case studies
USGBC’s LEED 2009: Emphasizing credits impacting climate change
61 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
New Materials: Smarter, Greener
Source: International Alliance for Interoperability, 2007
Creating New Materials through Science:
–Nanotechnology
–Biomimetics
–Radio frequency identification (RFID)
62 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Materials Example:HOK Embraces Biomimcry
HOK has partnered with the Biomimicry Guild to enhance sustainable design.
Designed “skin cells” for buildings, which absorb sunlight, water and CO2 to produce oxygen and collect water.
New project in India –mimics root structures of indigenous trees and plants to help anchor houses along steep mountain slope.
63 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Prefabrication & Modularization
Examples
SG Blocks
– Code-engineered cargo shipping containers and site-ready modularized blocks
– New Applications: “Home in a Box” & Hurricane-resistant temporary structures
– Reuse = Sustainability
Dubai’s DaVinci Tower
– World’s first prefabricated skyscraper
– 90% built as modules in a factory
– Minimize on-site labor costs, risk & time
Market demand and activity growing
New study: Use of prefabricated materials in the UK to surpass $1.4 billion by 2010.
Moving beyond the residential market
64 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
PPP Coming to the Forefront
PPPs Will Be Different Today: More Government Involvement
2009 New Transportation Bill Will Be Important for PPPs as SAFETEA-LU Expires
Proposed Federal Infrastructure BankCould Expand PPPs
Tentative Insights from Ongoing MHC Survey of Government Decision-Makers
–40% expect PPP work in next 3 years
–A third have high opinion of PPPs
–Most important financial aspects: guarantees and default provisions
–Congestion has the highest priority in decision to use a PPP
–Lack of funding the primary reason to use a PPP
–Biggest concern with PPP: unacceptable private profits
65 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Trends
US & Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM
– Workforce/Labor
– Innovation
– Materials
– Project Delivery Methods
So whatImplications to consider
66 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Assume pending or proposed projects are
NOT safe if financed through conventional
construction financing
– What’s the “real” health of our opportunity pipeline?
Stay close to existing clients & keep an eye
on fiscal health of key trade and supply
partners
– How can we serve our existing client-base better?
– How can we help our clients better connect with their key
partners?
Expect “Green” to become de facto market
expectation, particularly for public works,
institutional and office
– Green construction and digital design & construction are
interconnected trends
– Does our technology aid in sustainable design and
construction and visa versa? Does our brand / market
position communicate this?
Implications
67 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Infrastructure, Education, Healthcare,
Alternative Energy & Transmission are all
good bets over the long term…
– Do we have access to the firms involved?
– Does our technology address their specific needs?
Alternative delivery ie: IPD becomes
increasingly attractive as owners look for
greater efficiencies and risk sharing
– BIM is one of many critical enablers in emergence of
IPD/other project management efficiencies. How do we
support these emerging delivery methods?
– Can we quantify our technology’s impact on waste
elimination, greater productivity, greater transparency?
Implications
68 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Alternative financing like PPP has renewed
appeal as state /local govt’s balance
infrastructure needs and budget shortfalls
– Do we play a role in facilitating, adding transparency to
public private partnered projects?
It’s a great time to recruit future users
– Are we educating today, tomorrow’s digital construction
influencers / users?
Use of prefabrication and modularization will
accelerate
– Owner expectations driving job productivity improvements,
reduced waste and better cost management
– Companies in favorable cash position are investing in
innovation to secure profitable competitive advantage
– How does our technology enhance / accelerate this
emerging productivity trend?
Implications
69 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Trends
US & Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM
– Workforce/Labor
– Innovation
– Materials
– Project Delivery Methods
Resourceseducate your team / grow your business
70 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Resources to educate your team and customers
• Free access to breaking news on ENR.com• 140,000 unique visitors• 1.2MM page views
Insight considerations…
71 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
http://construction.com/stimulus/Free access to news & analysishttp://construction.com
Insight considerations…Resources to educate your team and customers
72 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Market Dynamics E-Newsletter
Free access to latest analysis and forecasts from MHC Analytics group
Distributed monthly to 20,000 industry professionals
Sign-up available at construction.com under Market Research tab (http://www.construction.com/market_research/)
Sign up by email to [email protected]
Insight considerations…Resources to educate your team and customers
73 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Easy access to stimulus
projects via key word search
Stimulus opportunity attributes…
– “Shovel Ready” – projects in
consideration for ARRA financial
support
– “ARRA Stimulus” – projects
verified to receive ARRA funding
McGraw-Hill Construction Network
Making it work for you… Finding Stimulus Construction
Business development considerations…
74 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
McGraw-Hill Construction Network
Present Opportunities on Stimulus Construction Shovel Ready
– Proposed
– 11,094 projects
– $94.3B
ARRA Stimulus
– Funded!!
– 949 projects
– 626 Hwy
– 53 Transit
– 21 Utilities
– $5.3B
Growing daily!!
Business development considerations…
75 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
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76 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Trends
US & Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM
– Workforce/Labor
– Innovation
– Materials
– Project Delivery Methods
“Luck favors the prepared mind.”- Louis Pasteur -
Thank you!Questions or comments??