human population envi 201 spring 2004. key concepts n exponential growth – rule of 70 n...
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Human Population
Envi 201 Spring 2004
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Key Concepts
Exponential Growth – Rule of 70 Demographic transition Age structure and population
momentum Causes of fertility decline Links between fertility decisions and
environment (Dasgupta article)
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Exponential Growth
Quantity grows by the same relative amount (g) each year
P(next year) = P(this year)* (1+g)
At time t, P = P0 x (1+g)t
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Exponential Growth
Quantity grows by the same relative amount each year
Doubling time d is constant
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Rule of 70:
Doubling time x growth rate = 70 Examples:
r, growth rate, % per year
d, doubling time, years
10 7
1 70
2 35
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World Population Growth
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World Population Grew Slowly Through 1945…Then accelerated…Then slowed
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Trends in Population Growth WorldwidePopulation Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods
7987
82 79 77 75 7369
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Net population added per year Annual population growth rate
Mill
ions
Per
cen
t in
crea
se p
er y
ear
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
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Growth Rates have Peaked…
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000
Alaska Population: Average Annual Rates of Growth
(due to births, deaths, and net migration)
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The Demographic Transition
Stage I: high birthrates and death rates Stage II: continued high birthrates,
declining death rates Stage III: falling birthrates and death
rates, eventually stabilizing
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Replacement Rate would be 2 children per woman
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Population Momentum
Lots of young people Although each woman may have total
fertility = 2 children, There are many more future mothers
than current mothers
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Native Age Structure
-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500
Age
4
9
14
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
54
59
64
69
74
79
84
89
Male
Female
Does Alaska have Population Momentum?
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Replacement Rate would be 2 children per woman
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Testing the Relationship:
Bangladesh fertility dropped from 7.0 to 3.8 between 1970 and 1998
Bangladesh income per capita in 1998 is supposed to be $2200 in 1980$….
Latest HDR says $1602 year 2000$ Fertility has dropped faster than curve
predicts
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