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  • HighSpeedRailEconomicandSocialBenefitsfortheHumeRegion

    HumeRegionalDevelopmentAustralia

    December2014

  • HighSpeedRailEconomicandSocialBenefitsfortheHumeRegion

    LiabilitylimitedbyaschemeapprovedunderProfessionalStandardsLegislation.DeloittereferstooneormoreofDeloitteToucheTohmatsuLimited,aUKprivatecompanylimitedbyguarantee,anditsnetworkofmemberfirms,eachofwhichisalegallyseparateandindependententity.Pleaseseewww.deloitte.com/au/aboutforadetaileddescriptionofthelegalstructureofDeloitteToucheTohmatsuLimitedanditsmemberfirms.2015DeloitteAccessEconomicsPtyLtd

    ContentsGlossary...........................................................................................................................................i

    ExecutiveSummary........................................................................................................................ii

    1 Introduction........................................................................................................................11.1 Objectivesoftheproject.....................................................................................................11.2 Approach............................................................................................................................11.3 Contentsofthisreport........................................................................................................1

    2 Background.........................................................................................................................22.1 AbouttheHumeRegion......................................................................................................22.2 ThecurrentHSRproposalforSouthEastAustralia(HSRscenario)......................................42.3 SocialandeconomicimpactsidentifiedinHSRexperienceselsewhere..............................5

    3 ProjectApproach................................................................................................................93.2 AssumptionsandLimitations............................................................................................103.3 Basecase(counterfactual)................................................................................................11

    4 DirectregionalimpactsofHSR.........................................................................................134.1 Constructionandmaintenancestimulus...........................................................................134.2 Patronageandmodalshifts..............................................................................................174.3 Changestorelativeaccessibility........................................................................................254.4 BusinessProductivity........................................................................................................274.5 Householdwelfaregains...................................................................................................314.6 Populationandhumancapital..........................................................................................314.7 Environmentalchangesandotherimpacts.......................................................................36

    5 TotalimpactsfortheHumeRegion..................................................................................415.1 CGEmodelinputs..............................................................................................................415.2 AggregateeconomicimpactsontheHumeRegion...........................................................435.3 Populationgrowthimpacts...............................................................................................455.4 Subregionalimpacts.........................................................................................................46

    6 Keyfindings.......................................................................................................................49

    References...................................................................................................................................53

    AppendixA:RegionalCGEModel..............................................................................................55

    AppendixB:Accessibilitybytown..............................................................................................60Limitationofourwork.................................................................................................................62

  • ChartsChart2.1:PopulationintheHumeRegionsLGAs.......................................................................3

    Chart4.1:ConstructionandOperatingCost($b)overtime......................................................17

    Chart4.2:TripsbyHSR(businessandnonbusiness),HumeRegion(policycase),2009to206521

    Chart4.3:BusinessTravellersvNonBusinessTravellers,HumeRegionbasecaseversusHSR(policycase),2009to2065.........................................................................................................22

    Chart4.4:TripsbyAir,HumeRegionbasecaseversusHSR(policycase),2009to2065.......23

    Chart4.5:TripsbyCar,HumeRegionbasecaseversusHSR(policycase),2009to2065......23

    Chart4.6:TripsbyStandardRail,HumeRegionbasecaseversusHSR(policycase),2009to2065 24

    Chart4.7:TripsbyCoach,HumeRegionbasecaseversusHSR(policycase),2009to2065..25

    Chart4.8:Userbenefitsovertime:businessandnonbusiness................................................30

    Chart5.1:HumeGRPdeviations($million)............................................................................43

    Chart5.2:Humeemploymentdeviations(FTE)......................................................................44

    Chart5.3:Humehouseholdconsumptiondeviations($million)...........................................44

    TablesTable4.1:ConstructionCost(notriskadjusted)........................................................................14

    Table4.2:ConstructionCosts(riskadjusted).............................................................................15

    Table4.3:OperatingCosts(riskadjusted).................................................................................16

    Table4.4:Breakdownoftripsforeachmarketbymodeandpurpose.....................................18

    Table4.5:NumberoftripstoandfromtheHumeRegionbyyearanddestination(alltransportmodes)BaseCase(000trips)..................................................................................................19

    Table4.6:NumberoftripstoandfromtheHumeRegionbyyearanddestination(alltransportmodes)HSR(policycase)(000trips).......................................................................................20

    Table4.7:Relativeaccessibility..................................................................................................26

    Table4.8:ProportionofNorthboundandSouthboundtripsbyorigin.....................................29

    Table4.9:Journeytoworkdata,regionalcouncils,2011..........................................................36

    Table4.10:Constructionemissions...........................................................................................37

    Table4.11:Tourismstatistics,HumeRegion.............................................................................40

    Table5.1:SummaryofCGEinputs.............................................................................................42

    Table5.2:Populationimpact.....................................................................................................46

    Table5.3:LGAHSRimpacts2065............................................................................................46

  • Table6.1:OverviewofHSRbenefitstotheHumeRegion.........................................................50

    TableB.1:HSRstationaccessibilitybytown..............................................................................60

    FiguresFigure2.1:Humesettlementpopulation.....................................................................................2

    Figure4.1:HSRtripsperannum................................................................................................27

    Figure4.2:HumeFutureurbangrowth..................................................................................33

    Figure5.1:RegionalGRPImpacts...............................................................................................47

    Figure5.2:Regionalpopulationimpacts....................................................................................48

    FigureA.1:KeycomponentsofDAERGEM...............................................................................55

  • HighSpeedRailEconomicandSocialBenefitsfortheHumeRegion

    iCommercialinConfidence

    DeloitteAccessEconomics

    Glossary

    ABS AustralianBureauofStatistics

    CGE ComputableGeneralEquilibrium

    DAE DeloitteAccessEconomics

    DEDJTR DepartmentofEconomicDevelopment,Jobs,TransportandResources

    GIS GeographicInformationSystems

    GRP GrossRegionalProduct

    GSP GrossStateProduct

    HSR HighSpeedRail

    LGA LocalGovernmentArea

    NBN NationalBroadbandNetwork

    NPV NetPresentValue

    NSW NewSouthWales

    VOC VehicleOperatingCost

  • HighSpeedRailEconomicandSocialBenefitsfortheHumeRegion

    iiCommercialinConfidence

    DeloitteAccessEconomics

    ExecutiveSummaryKeyPoints

    ThemainbenefitstotheHumeRegionofHSRthroughtheregionareasfollows: Constructionandmaintenanceexpenditure:TheHumeRegionwouldexperience$3.1

    billion in construction expenditure between 2032 and 2040 (expressed asNPV), or$880million per year over those nine years. Once HSR becomes operational, HSRrelatedmaintenancefromtheHumeRegionwouldbeapproximately$500millionperannum.

    Changes to relative accessibility: The average