hurricane dorian briefing · situation overview main change from yesterday is that dorian has a...

HURRICANE DORIANBRIEFING

www.weather.gov/Atlanta

Friday, August 30, 2019

NWSAtlanta

12:30 PM EDT

Prepared by:

WFO Atlanta/Peachtree City

8/30/2019 12:24 PM www.weather.gov/Atlanta

Atlanta/Peachtree CityWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Situation Overview

▪ Main change from yesterday is that Dorian has a slower track – any impacts to portions of north and central Georgia could be more in the middle to end of next week.

▪ System is expected to slow/stall after landfall along the eastern Florida peninsula Tuesday morning before slowly turning northward and moving along the Southeastern Atlantic seaboard.

▪ Lack of upper-level steering flow continues to lead to storm track uncertainty beyond Monday/Tuesday. Exact impacts to north and central Georgia are still unclear.

Hurricane Dorian



• Current satellite view of

Hurricane Dorian; now

a high-end Category 2

Hurricane (110 mph).

• Dorian strengthened to

Category 2 yesterday

evening and is soon

expected to strengthen

into a ‘Major’ Hurricane

• Further intensification is

expected over the next

few days before landfall.

Current Satellite ViewHurricane Dorian



▪ Dorian continues to intensify and is expected

to make landfall early Tuesday morning as a

major hurricane (Category 4 with 140 mph

sustained winds)

▪ Models are showing increased confidence that

the storm will make landfall along the south-

central coast of eastern Florida.

▪ Uncertainty continues to exist on Dorian’s

track after landfall but the storm is still

expected to turn north/northeastward toward

southern Georgia.

Situation OverviewHurricane Dorian

NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area

enclosed by the cone.



▪ Upper-level steering flow is

expected to weaken as Dorian

approaches Florida coast.

▪ This leads to high levels of

uncertainty as to the exact

track of the storm.

▪ Dorian is also expected

slow/stall before turning north

after Monday/Tuesday.

Model UncertaintyHurricane Dorian



Threat LevelsHurricane Dorian

Winds Rainfall/Flooding Tornadoes

Incre

asi

ng T

hre

at

For information on specific hazards in this area,

please go to https://www.weather.gov/ffc



▪Increasing probabilities as

Dorian approaches Florida

▪Central Georgia currently

has 10-30 percent chance

(through day 5 - Tuesday),

though this is likely to

change with updates

TS Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHurricane Dorian



▪ Storm Total rainfall forecast

valid through Thursday Night

▪ Flood threat likely to increase if

system slows/stalls

▪ Heaviest rainfall totals are likely

to be along the coast

Expected Storm Total RainfallHurricane Dorian

Note: There will likely be locally higher amounts



▪ Storm Total rainfall forecast

valid Tuesday through

Thursday Night

▪ Current forecast is subject

to change with updated

track information.

▪ However, the heaviest

rainfall expected locally will

be towards the

southeastern forecast area

with 3-4” currently

expected.

Expected Storm Total Rainfall – GeorgiaHurricane Dorian



▪ Main change from yesterday is that Dorian has a slower track – any impacts to portions of north and central Georgia could be more in the middle to end of next week.

▪ System is expected to slow/stall after landfall along the eastern Florida peninsula Tuesday morning before slowly turning northward and moving along the Southeastern Atlantic seaboard.

▪ Lack of upper-level steering flow continues to lead to storm track uncertainty beyond Monday/Tuesday. Exact impacts to north and central Georgia are still unclear.

Key Take-AwaysHurricane Dorian

www.weather.gov/AtlantaNWSAtlanta

The Next Briefing Will Be:

Saturday 12:30 PM EDT

Slides available at http://www.weather.gov/ffc/briefings

You can always find get the latest graphics and information for this storm at www.hurricanes.gov

Web: http://weather.gov/atlanta

Phone: (770) 486-1133

Twitter: @NWSAtlanta

YouTube: NWSAtlanta

http://www.weather.gov/ffc/briefings

hurricane dorian briefing · situation overview main change from yesterday is that dorian has a...

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