Hurricane Patricia

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This article is about the Pacific hurricane of 2015. For other storms of the same name, see Hurricane Patricia (disambiguation).

Hurricane Patricia

Category 5 major hurricane (SSHWS/NWS)

Patricia 2015-10-23 1730Z Worldview.jpg

Hurricane Patricia at its record peak intensity on October 23, while approaching Western Mexico

Formed October 20, 2015

Dissipated October 24, 2015

Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 200 mph (325 km/h)

Lowest pressure 879 mbar (hPa); 25.96 inHg

(Record low in Western Hemisphere)

Fatalities 8 direct, 5 indirect

Damage > $189 million (2015 USD)

Areas affected Central America, Mexico, Texas

Part of the 2015 Pacific hurricane season

Hurricane Patricia (Spanish pronunciation: [paˈtɾisia]) was the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere in terms of barometric pressure, and the strongest globally in terms of reliably measured maximum sustained winds. Originating from a sprawling disturbance near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in mid-October 2015, Patricia was first classified a tropical depression on October 20. Initial development was slow, with only modest strengthening within the first day of its classification. The system later became a tropical storm and was named Patricia, the twenty-fourth named storm of the annual hurricane season. Exceptional environmental conditions fueled explosive intensification on October 22. A well-defined eye developed within an intense central dense overcast and Patricia grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours—a near-record pace. Early on October 23, Hurricane Hunters revealed the storm to have acquired record maximum sustained winds of 200 mph (325 km/h); a subsequent recon mission found a record low pressure of 879 mbar(hPa; 25.96 inHg).

Late on October 23, Patricia made landfall in a significantly weakened state, though still at Category 5 intensity, near Cuixmala, Jalisco. It became only the second Pacific hurricane on record to make landfall at this intensity, after the 1959 Mexico hurricane. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of Mexico induced dramatic weakening, faster than the storm intensified. Within 24 hours of moving ashore, Patricia degraded into a tropical depression and dissipated soon thereafter late on October 24.

The precursor to Patricia produced widespread flooding rains in Central America. Hundreds of thousands of people were directly affected by the storm, mostly in Guatemala. At least six fatalities were attributed to the event: four in El Salvador, one in Guatemala, and one in Nicaragua. Striking Mexico as a Category 5, Patricia caused tremendous damage; however, the affected areas were predominantly rural, mitigating a potential large-scale disaster. Preliminary assessments indicate hundreds of homes to be destroyed and seven fatalities are linked to the hurricane, directly or indirectly. Total damage is estimated to be in excess of 3.1 billion pesos (US$189 million), with agriculture comprising the majority of losses.

Contents [hide]

1 Meteorological history

1.1 Records

2 Preparations

3 Impact

3.1 Central America

3.2 Mexico

3.3 Texas

4 See also

5 References

6 External links

Meteorological history[edit]

Map plotting the track and intensity of the storm according to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale

On October 14, 2015, the U.S. National Hurricane Center began monitoring the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis over the far eastern Pacific, near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as an area of low pressure was expected to form.[1] This feature later consolidated on October 17, with a large area of convection—showers and thunderstorms—spanning several hundred miles from Central America westward over open waters.[2] Under favorable environmental conditions, the low steadily organized and associated convection became more concentrated around its center.[3] The system soon interacted with a Tehuantepec gap wind event on October 18,[4] temporarily delaying development of the disturbance into a tropical depression.[5][6] Drifting west-southwest in response to a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, the disturbance consolidated throughout October 20. At 15:00 UTC, the system acquired sufficient convective organization to be classified Tropical Depression Twenty-E.[7] Upon its designation, the depression was situated roughly 445 mi (715 km) east-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.[8]

Most intense Pacific hurricanes[9]

Hurricane Year Pressure

hPa inHg

1 Patricia 2015 879 25.96

2 Linda 1997 902 26.64

3 Rick 2009 906 26.76

4 Kenna 2002 913 26.96

5 Ava 1973 915 27.02

Ioke 2006

7 Marie 2014 918 27.11

Odile

9 Guillermo 1997 919 27.14

10 Gilma 1994 920 27.17

Listing is only for tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean

north of the equator and east of the International Dateline

Exceptionally favorable atmospheric conditions, consisting of light wind shear, sea surface temperatures of 86 °F (30 °C) or higher, and high moisture levels yielded an environment highly conducive to rapid intensification.[7] A small inner-core soon developed and the depression intensified into a tropical storm by 03:00 UTC on October 21, at which time it was assigned the name Patricia.[10][11] For unknown reasons, the system unraveled substantially later that day with banding features dissipating and the low-level circulation becoming poorly defined.[12][13] This phase was short-lived as convection blossomed over the storm late on October 21 and a central dense overcast formed over the center. An eye-feature was noted early on October 22.[14] The system reached hurricane strength by 09:00 UTC, featuring prominent outflow and well-defined banding features; rapid intensification ensued soon thereafter.[15] Data from Hurricane Hunters investigating the cyclone indicated Patricia to have reached Category 4 status on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale by 18:00 UTC.[16]

By the early hours of October 23, a solid ring of −130 °F (−90 °C) cloud tops surrounded the hurricane's 12 mi (19 km) wide eye and signaled its intensification into a Category 5. A clear northward turn took place followed by acceleration northeast.[17][18] Based on satellite analyses, Patricia was estimated to have acquired maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h)—a Category 5 on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale—and an estimated barometric pressure of 924 mbar (hPa; 27.29 inHg). In a 24-hour span, Patricia's winds increased by 100 mph (155 km/h). The rate of intensification was greater than that of any other Pacific hurricane on record in the satellite-era (1960s–present)—only Hurricane Linda in 1997 strengthened at a similar rate.[18] Around 05:30 UTC, a reconnaissance aircraft measured flight-level winds of 206 mph (332 km/h), yielding an estimated surface value of 185 mph (295 km/h), and a surface pressure of 892 mbar (hPa; 26.34 inHg).[19] Patricia continued to deepen as the aircraft investigated the storm. The final observations from the Hurricane Hunters before they left the hurricane indicated the system to have

attained winds of 200 mph (325 km/h) and a barometric pressure of 880 mbar (hPa; 25.99 inHg).[20][21] Flight-level winds measured by the aircraft reached 221 mph (356 km/h).[22]

Satellite animation of Patricia making landfall on October 23

Little change in strength took place through the remainder of October 23, with another reconnaissance mission around 18:00 UTC recording a slightly lower central pressure of 879 mbar (hPa; 25.96 inHg); this constitutes the maximum intensity of the hurricane.[23] The aircraft was battered by severe turbulence (via updrafts and downdrafts) and the crew experienced maximum g-forces of +3.0 and -1.5.[24] An outer eyewall was noted in radar imagery, indicating a likely eyewall replacement cycle. Following the investigation by recon, Patricia's eye became cloud-filled and weakening ensued.[23] At 23:15 UTC on October 23, the cyclone made landfall at Cuixmala, in the municipality of La Huerta, Jalisco—about 55 mi (85 km) west-northwest of Manzanillo—with winds of 165 mph (270 km/h) and an estimated pressure of 920 mbar (hPa; 27.17 inHg).[25][26] This made Patricia the first hurricane to strike Mexico's Pacific coast as a Category 5 since an unnamed storm in 1959;[9] however, the status of the 1959 hurricane is disputed and it may have been weaker than originally assessed.[27]

Rapid weakening ensued throughout October 24 as the hurricane traversed the Sierra Madre mountains; its eye disappeared from satellite imagery within hours of moving ashore.[28] Patricia accelerated inland in between of a trough over Northwestern Mexico and the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Convection dramatically decreased in organization and the low- and mid- to upper-level circulation centers of the cyclone soon decoupled.[29][30] The system degraded into a tropical depression by 15:00 UTC as little organized convection remained.[30] Patricia degenerated into a remnant low hours later.[31] Unimpeded by the mountains of Mexico, the mid- to upper-level circulation of Patricia, accompanied by considerable moisture, continued northeast and interacted with a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico. The new system produced flooding rains across large areas of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas.[32][33][34]

Records[edit]

The flight crew of NOAA43 commemorate the record observation of 879 mbar (hPa; 25.96 inHg) after their final mission into Hurricane Patricia on October 23.

With maximum sustained winds of 200 mph (325 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 879 mbar (hPa; 25.96 inHg), Hurricane Patricia is the most intense tropical cyclone ever observed in the Western Hemisphere.[22][35] It exceeded the previous sustained wind record of 190 mph (305 km/h) set by Hurricane Allen in 1980 and eclipsed the pressure record of 882 mbar (hPa; 26.05 inHg) set by Hurricane Wilma in 2005, both in the Atlantic basin.[36] In the Eastern Pacific basin, north of the equator and east of the International Dateline, the previous basin record-holder was Hurricane Linda in 1997 with winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and a pressure of 902 mbar (hPa; 26.64 inHg).[9]

On a global scale, Patricia's one-minute maximum sustained winds ranked as the highest ever reliably observed or estimated globally in a tropical cyclone, surpassing Typhoon Haiyan of 2013; however, the intensity of Haiyan was only estimated via satellite imagery (T8.0, the highest rating on the Dvorak scale), so the record is uncertain.[22] According to the World Meteorological Organization, Typhoon Nancy of 1961 produced the highest sustained winds on record at 215 mph (345 km/h); however, it is widely accepted that Western Pacific reconnaissance during the 1940s to 1960s overestimated cyclone intensity and Nancy's record is considered questionable.[35][37] The most powerful wind gust produced by a tropical cyclone, as well as the highest non-tornadic winds ever recorded, is still retained by Cyclone Olivia in 1996: 253 mph (407 km/h) was observed on Barrow Island, Western Australia.[38]

The magnitude of Patricia's rapid intensification is among the fastest ever observed. In a 24-hour span, October 22–23, its central pressure fell by 100 mbar (hPa; 2.95 inHg).[35] This fell just short of the world-record intensification set by Typhoon Forrest in 1983, which featured an identical pressure drop in under 24 hours.[39] With winds of 165 mph (270 km/h), Patricia is the strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane on record.[9][25] The previous record was 160 mph (260 km/h) set by the 1959 Mexico hurricane. A tentative reanalysis determined the 1959 storm to have been a Category 4 upon moving ashore, thereby making Patricia the only reliable Category 5 landfall on record in the basin.[9][27]

Preparations[edit]

Prior to the arrival of Hurricane Patricia, the Government of Mexico issued multiple watches and warnings for coastal communities. A hurricane watch was first raised at 09:00 UTC on October 21, encompassing areas of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco. A tropical storm watch also covered portions of Guerrero.[40] As Patricia intensified, the government issued a hurricane warning for areas between Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, and Punta San Telmo, Michoacán; a tropical storm warning supplemented this for areas farther north and east.[41][42] The hurricane warning was extended northward to include areas south of San Blas, Nayarit, on October 23.[43] Once the storm moved inland and the threat of damaging winds diminished, these warnings were gradually allowed to expire on October 24.[44][45][46]

Following Patricia's upgrade to Category 5 status, the National Hurricane Center called the storm "potentially catastrophic",[47] a source of criticism and praise from various media. Citing the relatively limited damage and loss of life, some outlets claimed the agency was over-hyping or over-blowing storm. Most outlets praised them for effectively communicating the dire threat and potentially saving lives from an exceptionally powerful hurricane.[48][49]

Across Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit, 1,782 shelters were opened on October 22 with a collective capacity of 258,000 people.[50] Officials in Manzanillo began distributing sandbags during the afternoon of October 22.[51] Schools across Guerrero and Jalisco suspended activities for October 22 and 23, respectively.[52][53] Puerto Vallarta also prepared for the high winds and storm surge.[54] Civil protection officials planned to evacuate roughly 50,000 people from Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.[55] To expedite the process, 2 aircraft and 600 buses were used to shuttle evacuees.

[56] Ultimately, 8,500 people evacuated prior to the storm's arrival,[57] One person died during an evacuation in Jalisco.[58] including 2,600 in Cabo Corrientes.[56] Roughly 25,000 personnel from the Mexican Army, Navy, and Federal Police were deployed preemptively.[59] The Mexican Red Cross prepositioned food for 3,500 families.[60] Mexican authorities received praise for effectively carrying out emergency preparations.[61]

Impact[edit]

The sprawling precursor to Hurricane Patricia over Central America on October 17

Central America[edit]

Heavy rain associated with the precursor to Patricia caused widespread flooding and mudslides across Central America.[62] One person was killed in the Alta Verapaz Department and approximately 2,100 people required evacuation across Guatemala.[62][63] A total of 442 homes and 28,200 ha (70,000 acres) of crops were damaged while roughly 223,000 people were affected by flooding.[64][65] Government officials deployed emergency teams and 40 million quetzal (US$5.4 million) was available for relief operations.[64] In nearby El Salvador between 160 and 185 mm (6.3 and 7.3 in) of rain fell, causing similar floods.[66] Dozens of homes were affected and four people were killed.[66][67] The Goascorán River overflowed its banks twice in two days, inundating surrounding communities.[66] Owing to widespread flooding, authorities suspended school activities across the country on October 19.[67] In Nicaragua, a landslide buried four miners in Bonanza; one died while the others were rescued.[68] The Ulúa River in Honduras over-topped its banks for the first time in 17 years on October 18, prompting the evacuation of more than 200 people.[69][70] Furthermore, flooding damaged 10 homes in Jacó, Costa Rica.[71]

Mexico[edit]

While the hurricane was still offshore, widespread flooding affected large areas of Chiapas and Guerrero, prompting dozens of evacuations.[72] The hurricane produced large swells along the shores of Guerrero, causing damage to coastal structures.[73]

Hurricane Patricia made landfall in Jalisco as a Category 5 hurricane during the evening of October 23. The 15 mi (24 km) wide core of Patricia largely avoided populated centers, passing through areas with a population density less than 30 people per square mile. This, alongside effective evacuations, is credited for the relatively low death toll, despite the hurricane's intensity. Several small communities along the path sustained tremendous damage, however.[74] Had the hurricane moved farther east or west, the densely populated areas surrounding Manzanillo or Puerto Vallarta would have suffered a direct hit.[61] A NOAA/NWS automated weather station at the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve, at an elevation of 295 ft (90 m), recorded sustained winds of 185 mph (298 km/h) and a maximum gust of 211 mph (340 km/h). The data is currently unverified and considered unofficial pending further investigation.[28] Throughout the affected region, the storm's powerful winds rendered 261,989 people without electricity.[59][57] Twenty-one of the nation's thirty-one states, and the Federal District, were affected by the hurricane's rain.[75] Accumulations in Jalisco peaked at 383.2 mm (15.09 in) on Nevado de Colima.[76]

Preliminary surveys across Colima indicated localized but severe damage. A total of 200 schools, 107 health facilities, 34 sport facilities, and 11,645 ha (28,780 acres) of agriculture was affected by the storm.[77] Severe damage was incurred by the banana crops, with losses from the fruit alone estimated at 500 million pesos (US$30.2 million). In Coahuayana alone, approximately 400 homes were destroyed.[57] The small town of Chamela was completely leveled.[78] In addition to agricultural losses, stated damages are estimated to be in excess of 112 million pesos (US$6.8 million), with the vast majority stemming from agriculture.[57][77] In nearby Jalisco, approximately 10,000 people were directly affected by the storm with 3,500 homes damaged or destroyed.[79] Nearly 8,280 ha (20,500 acres) of crops were damaged across the state.[80] A total of six deaths in incidents related to Patricia were reported in the state. Two of these deaths occurred when a tree toppled over in the storm's powerful winds.[79] A woman was also hospitalized after sustaining injuries in the same incident. Another four people were killed in an automobile accident in southern Jalisco. Two of the victims died in the wreckage and the other two died after being brought to the hospital.[81][82]

Although Patricia made landfall farther west, damage across Michoacán was severe. Numerous communities were temporarily isolated as roads were either rendered impassible or washed away altogether by floods. The storm severely damaged 150 homes in the Arteaga Municipality. A portion of Highway 200 was shut down in Aquila.[83] Agriculture sustained extensive damage with 10,000 ha (25,000 acres) of crops destroyed; losses in the sector amounted to 2.5 billion pesos (US$151.2 million). In Coahuayana alone, 5,600 ha (14,000 acres) of bananas were ruined, the greatest loss of crops in the municipality's history.[84] Damage to health facilities in the state reached 13.5 million pesos (US$815,000).[85]

A cargo ship—the 735 ft (224 m) bulk carrier Los Llanitos[86]—was shifted off-course by the hurricane and grounded near Barra de Navidad, Jalisco. Her 27 crew were unharmed but required rescue by a military helicopter.[78]

In the aftermath of the hurricane, 5,791 marines from the nation's Naval Infantry Force were deployed to assist with recovery and rescue efforts.[87] Rescuers reached some of the hardest-hit areas within a day of Patricia's landfall.[61] The Secretariat of Social Development's budget allowed for 250 million pesos (US$15.1 million) in relief funds for Jalisco.[79] Power was restored to 88 percent of those affected within two days of the storm.[59] Red Cross volunteers began needs assessments on October 24 and distribution of humanitarian started the following day.[60]

Texas[edit]

Patricia's direct effects in Texas were limited to southern areas of the state. Moisture associated with the hurricane streamed ahead of its circulation and interacted with a frontal boundary over the region.[32] Antecedent rains saturated the region and produced severe flooding, with cars and trains washed away.[88] Fears arose that the collective effects of these storms would produce deadly floods, similar to those in May earlier in the year; however, no deaths resulted.[89] Houston

received 9.38 in (238 mm) of rain during a 24-hour span from October 24–25 and flooding near the Texas–Mexico border stranded cars.[90][91] Some damage was reported in Weslaco.[92]