hydrological modeling
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Hydrological Modeling. Andrew D. Gronewold. Objectives. Support Great Lakes water resource management Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk. Support Great Lakes water resource management - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 1
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Hydrological Modeling
Andrew D. Gronewold
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 2
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 2
Objectives
1. Support Great Lakes water resource management
2. Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data
3. Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty
4. Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk
1. Support Great Lakes water resource management
2. Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data
3. Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty
4. Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 3
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 3
Objective 1: Management support
Example: Advanced hydrologic prediction system (AHPS)
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 4
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• Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS)
• Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM)
• Derivative outlooks weighting software
• Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM)
• Large Lake Thermodynamics Model (LLTM)
• Mid-Lakes Routing Model (MLRM)
• Thiessen polygon software
• Great Lakes Hydrometeorological Station Directory Database
• Probabilistic violation assessment tool (ProVAsT)
Products
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 5
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 5
Government agencies:• United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)• Environment Canada (EC)• United States Geological Survey (USGS)• United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)
Management authorities and utilities:• New York Power Authority (NYPA)• Ontario Power Generation (OPG)
Academic and research institutions:• University of Michigan• Wayne State University• Case Western Reserve University• Duke University• Western Michigan University• Other academic institutions•
Stakeholders and partners
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 6
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 6
Objectives
1. Support Great Lakes water resource management
2. Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data
3. Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty
4. Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk
1. Support Great Lakes water resource management
2. Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data
3. Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty
4. Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 7
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 7
Objective 2: Data management
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 8
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 9
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 9
• Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS)
• Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM)
• Derivative outlooks weighting software
• Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM)
• Large Lake Thermodynamics Model (LLTM)
• Mid-Lakes Routing Model (MLRM)
• Thiessen polygon software
• Great Lakes Hydrometeorological Station Directory Database
• Probabilistic violation assessment tool (ProVAsT)
Products
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 10
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 10
Government agencies:• United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)• Environment Canada (EC)• United States Geological Survey (USGS)• United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)
Management authorities and utilities:• New York Power Authority (NYPA)• Ontario Power Generation (OPG)
Academic and research institutions:• University of Michigan• Wayne State University• Case Western Reserve University• Duke University• Western Michigan University• Other academic institutions•
Stakeholders and partners
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 11
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 11
Objectives
1. Support Great Lakes water resource management
2. Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data
3. Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty
4. Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk
1. Support Great Lakes water resource management
2. Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data
3. Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty
4. Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 12
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 12
Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 13
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Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty
Example “A”: Predicting flows in ungauged basins
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 14
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Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty
Example “B”: water quality assessments and human health risk
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 15
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Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty
Example “B”: water quality assessments and human health risk
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 16
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Objectives
1. Support Great Lakes water resource management
2. Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data
3. Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty
4. Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk
1. Support Great Lakes water resource management
2. Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data
3. Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty
4. Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 17
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 17
Objective 4: Communicate risk
Example: probability and impact of extreme events
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 18
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Objective 4: Communicate risk
Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 19
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Objective 4: Communicate risk
Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 20
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Objective 4: Communicate risk
Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 21
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Objective 4: Communicate risk
Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 22
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Objective 4: Communicate risk
Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 23
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Hydrological Modeling: summary
1. Hydrology program cornerstones solid foundation
2. Applying novel tools and filling gaps in research
3. Exciting transition period
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 24
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Hydrological Modeling: summary