IAHS Publication 363 ISSN 0144-7815

Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions

Editor-in-Chief Trevor Daniell Co-editors Henny A.J. van Lanen, Siegfried Demuth, Gregor Laaha, Eric Servat, Gil Mahe, Jean-François Boyer, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Alain Dezetter & Denis Ruelland

International Association of Hydrological Sciences

Association Internationale des Sciences Hydrologiques

IAHS Publication 363 ISSN 0144-7815

www.iahs.info

Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions

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Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions

Editor in Chief: TREVOR M. DANIELL School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Australia

Co-Editors: HENNY A. J. VAN LANEN, SIEGFRIED DEMUTH, GREGOR LAAHA ERIC SERVAT, GIL MAHE, JEAN-FRANÇOIS BOYER, JEAN-EMMANUEL PATUREL, ALAIN DEZETTER & DENIS RUELLAND Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, France, October 2014 IAHS Publication 363 in the IAHS Series of Proceedings and Reports

Published by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 2014

IAHS Publication 363 ISBN 978-1-907161-41-4

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

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The papers included in this volume have been reviewed and some were extensively revised by the Editors, in collaboration with the authors, prior to publication.

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The information, data and formulae provided in this volume are reproduced by IAHS Press in good faith and as finally checked by the author(s); IAHS Press does not guarantee their accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a given purpose. The reader is responsible for taking appropriate professional advice on any hydrological project and IAHS Press does not accept responsibility for the reader’s use of the content of this volume. To the fullest extent permitted by the applicable law, IAHS Press shall not be liable for any damages arising out of the use of, or inability to use, the content.

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Cover image: Moroccan landscape (photograph by Eric Servat).

CContents

Preface by Trevor M. Daniell v

Over 25 years of FRIEND-Water: an overview Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Siegfried Demuth, Trevor Daniell, David M. Hannah, Gregor Laaha, Gil Mahé & Lena M. Tallaksen

1

1 Trends in hydrological regimes and extremes

Regional assessment of low flow processes and prediction methods across European regimes Gregor Laaha, Anne F. van Loon, Claire Lang Delus & Daniel Koffler

11

Progressive aridity impact on the hydrological regime in the Volta River basin in Benin (West Africa) Henri S. V. Totin, Arnaud Zannou, Ernest Amoussou, Abel Afouda& Michel Boko

17

Multi-annual droughts in the water-stressed English Lowlands: long-term variability and climate drivers Jamie Hannaford, Chris K. Folland, Mike C. Kendon, & John P. Bloomfield

23

Synthesizing changes in low flows from observations and models across scales Kerstin Stahl, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jamie Hannaford, Christel Prudhomme, Gregor Laaha & Lena M. Tallaksen

30

Understanding and adapting to flood risk in a variable and changing climate Anthony S. Kiem

36

Trends in floods in small Norwegian catchments – instantaneous vs daily peaks Donna Wilson, Hege Hisdal & Deborah Lawrence

42

Climate change impact on flood generation process Biljana Radojevic, Pascal Breil & Dejan Dimkic

48

Flood duration frequency analysis in a changing climate: the methodology applied to Fengle River (Yangtze basin, China) C. Salles, Y. Chu, J. L. Perrin, M. G. Tournoud, L. Boudet, F. N. Cres, C. Rodier, S. Zheng, L. Huang & Y. Ma

54

Future low flows and hydrological drought: how certain are these for Europe? Marcel A. A. Alderlieste, Henny A. J. Van Lanen & Niko Wanders

60

Do large-scale models capture reported drought events? Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Adriaan J. Teuling & Remko Uijlenhoet

66

Analyse des périodes sèches dans le bassin d’Ichkeul (Tunisie) à partir de données journalières de pluviométrie / Analysis of dry spells in the Ichkeul basin (Tunisia) using daily rainfall data Majid Mathlouthi & Fethi Lebdi

72

viii

Changes of drought characteristics in small Czech and Slovakian catchments projected by the CMIP5 GCM ensemble Martin Hanel, Adam Vizina,

Miriam Fendeková

78

Impact of land-use change on the hydrology of North Lao PDR watersheds Emmanuel Mouche, François Moussu, Claude Mügler, Olivier Ribolzi, Christian Valentin, Oloth Sengtahevanghoung & Guillaume Lacombe

84

Assessment of wildfire impact on hydrological extremes in eastern Siberia Lyudmila Lebedeva & Olga Semenova & Nina Volkova

90

The correlation between variations of climatic factors and zonal runoff of mountain rivers Mikhail Bolgov & Marina Trubetskova

96

Linking variations in large-scale climatic circulation and high groundwater levels in southern England David A. Lavers, David M. Hannah & Chris Bradley

102

Rainfall regime evolution and drought forecasting in eastern Algeria Mohamed Meddi & Abdelwahab Rahmouni

107

Up-to-date climate forced seasonal flood changes (the case study for the European part of Russia) Natalia Frolova, Maria Kireeva, Dmitry Nesterenko, Svetlana Agafonova & Pavel Tersky

113

Improvement of reservoir operation by hybrid optimization algorithm: case study of HuongDien Reservoir, Vietnam Van Hoa Ho & Joong Hoon Kim

119

Optimal reservoir operation strategy for balancing ecosystem and human needs Fi-John Chang, Wen-Ping Tsai, Yu-Chung Wang, Pin-An Chen, Li-Chiu Chang, Alexandra Coynel & Georges Vachaud

126

Recent trends in monthly temperature and precipitation patterns in Europe Irene B. Nilsen, Anne K. Fleig, Lena M. Tallaksen & Hege Hisdal

132

Large-scale climate control on lake inflow in the Waitaki basin, New Zealand Daniel G. Kingston, Clare S. Webster & Pascal Sirguey

138

Sensitivity analysis of hydrological modelling to climate forcing in a semi-arid mountainous catchment D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter & P. Hublart

145

Prediction of water resources in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand Supattana Wichakul, Yasuto Tachikawa, Michiharu Shiiba & Kazuaki Yorozu

151

Modelling runoff and its components in Himalayan basins Hong Li, Stein Beldring, Chong-Yu Xu & Sharad K. Jain

158

Statistical analysis of river discharge projected using the MRI-AGCM3.2S dataset in Indochina Peninsula D. T. Duong, Y. Tachikawa, M. Shiiba & K. Yorozu

165

ix

Extreme precipitation events and related impacts in western Iberia Margarida L. R. Liberato & Ricardo M. Trigo

171

Unidirectional trends in rainfall and temperature of Bangladesh Shamsuddin Shahid, Xiao-Jun Wang & Sobri B. Harun

177

22 WWater resources and prospective scenarios

Assessing past and future water demands under climate change and anthropogenic pressures on two Mediterranean basins B. Grouillet, J. Fabre, D. Ruelland, L. Collet & J-F. Boyer

185

A multi-tracer approach to understand the hydrogeochemical functioning of a coastal aquifer located in NE Tunisia Fethi Lachaal, Anis Chekirbane, Ammar Mlayah, Bilel Hjiri & Jamila Tarhouni

191

L’aménagement des barrages de retenue d’eau, une stratégie d’adaptation à la sécheresse dans le bassin du fleuve Niger? / Is the building of dams an adaptation strategy to fight against drought in the basin of the River Niger? G. Liénou, G. Mahé, S. L. Piih, D. Sighomnou, J. E. Paturel & F. Bamba

197

Assessing the long-term evolution of water supply capacity: comparison of two Mediterranean catchments J. Fabre, L. Collet, M. Milano, D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter, S. Ardoin-Bardin & E. Servat

203

Assessing the capacity to meet irrigation water needs for viticulture under climate variability in the Chilean Andes P. Hublart, D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter & H. Jourde

209

Present-day surface and subsurface water resources of European Russia: conditions, use and forecast R. Dzhamalov, N. Frolova, M. Kireeva & E. Rets

215

La prospective territoriale, un outil de réflexion sur la gestion de l’eau du bassin de la Durance en 2050 / The territorial foresight, a reflection framework for water management planning in the Durance River basin in 2050 R. Samie, C. Monteil, Y. Arama, H. Bouscasse & E. Sauquet

221

Modifications des températures et des précipitations sur le Bani, un sous-bassin du fleuve Niger / Changes in temperature and precipitation in the Bani watershed, a sub-basin of the Niger River Jean-Emmanuel Paturel & Malicki Zorom

228

Climate change and debris flow: hazards maps in Matucana village under IPCC scenarios Juan W. Cabrera Cabrera & Leonardo F. Castillo Navarro

234

A reconnaissance study of water and carbon fluxes in a tropical watershed of Peninsular Malaysia: stable isotope constraints Muhammad I. Syakir, Kern Y. Lee, Ian D. Clark & Jan Veizer

239

Characterizing infiltration of a tropical watershed from ALOSPALSAR data using the Green-Ampt infiltration model Nor Liyana Mohammad Khan, Muhamad Askari & Ab. Latif Ibrahim

245

x

Projected climate change impacts on water resources in northern Morocco with an ensemble of regional climate models Y. Tramblay, D. Ruelland, R. Bouaicha & E. Servat

250

Modèle conceptuel de l’aquifère du Continental Terminal d’Abidjan / Conceptual model of Abidjan Continental Terminal aquifer Auguste K. Kouassi, Francis W. Kouassi, Jules O. M. Mangoua & Issiaka Savane

256

Characterization and evaluation of the confined limestone aquifer in Kuwait Fawzia M. Al-Ruwaih

263

Etude géochimique et isotopique d’un aquifère phréatique côtier anthropisé: Nappe de Oussja-Ghar El Melah (Tunisie) / Geochemical and isotope study of coastal anthropogenic phreatic groundwater: Oussja-Ghar El Melah aquifer (Tunisia) Safouan Ben Ammar, Jean-Denis Taupin, Kamel Zouari, Mohamed Khouatmia & Mohamed Ben Assi

269

Choosing metrics that matter – quantifying performance to help address reservoir operation challenges in Kenya’s Tana basin Anthony P. Hurford & Julien J. Harou

276

Environmental and geomatics assessment of the Ha Thanh basin to hydrological hazards in central Vietnam Stephane Grivel, Anh Tu Ngo, Jean-Marc Zaninetti & Thi Van Luong

282

Forecasting and mitigation of flooding in a Mediterranean karstic watershed V. Borrell-Estupina, B. Ladouche, P.-O. Malaterre, S. Ricci, Y. Caballero, M. Coustau, N. Dorfliger, P. Fleury, M. Jay-Allemand, J.-C. Marechal & O. Thual

288

33 EErosion and ssediment transfer processes and trends

Using 137Cs and 210Pbex measurements to document erosion rates for different time windows in a small catchment in southern Italy Paolo Porto & Desmond E. Walling

297

Lessons from long-term monitoring of soil erosion in three southeast Asian agricultural catchments undergoing rapid land-use changes C. Valentin, A. Boonsaner, J. L. Janeau, P. Jouquet, T. Henry des Tureaux, S. Huon, K. Latsachack, Y. Le Troquer, J. L. Maeght, D. Orange, Pham Dinh Rinh, A. Pierret, P. Podwojewski, O. Ribolzi, A. de Rouw, O. Sengtaheuanghoung, N. Silvera, H. Robain, B. Soulileuth, W. Thothong, Tran Duc Toan & Tran Sy Hai

303

Study of the relationship between sediment transport and rainfall extremes in the watershed of the wadi Mina (northwest Algeria) F. Hallouz, M. Meddi & G. Mahe

309

xi

“Blue-green” corridors as a tool for erosion and stream control in highly urbanized areas – case study of Belgrade city

315

44 HHydrological ddatabases: how to cope with future questions

Ensuring hydrometric data are fit-for-purpose through a national Service Level Agreement Katie Muchan & Harry Dixon

323

Future Flows: a dataset of climate, river flow and groundwater levels for climate change impact studies in Great Britain C. Prudhomme, C. Jackson, T. Haxton, S. Crooks, S. Dadson, D. Morris, J. Williamson, A. Barkwith, J. Kelvin, J. Mackay, L. Wang, G. Goodsell, L. Boelee, H. Davies, G. Buys, T. Lafon, A. Young & G. Watts

330

Architecture of environmental information systems applied to scientific observatories: examples of Carnoulès and MEDYCYSS observatories J. F. Boyer, E. Servat, C. Casiot & H. Jourde

336

Cooperative WebGIS interactive information systems for water resources data management Charalampos Skoulikaris, Jacques Ganoulis, Nikolaos Karapetsas, Fotis Katsogiannos & Georgios Zalidis

342

Towards a pan-European assessment of low flow indices Claire Lang Delus, Gregor Laaha, Daniel Koffler, Kerstin Stahl, Hege Hisdal, Christel Prudhomme, Miriam Fendekova & Wojciech Jakubowski

348

Selecting an optimal climatic dataset for integrated modelling of the Ebro hydrosystem A. Dezetter, J. Fabre, D. Ruelland & E. Servat

355

Growing season length and rainfall extremes analysis in Malawi Cosmo Ngongondo, Lena M. Tallaksen & Chong-Yu Xu

361

Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI): Sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration model and parameters James H. Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Chong-Yu Xu & Henny A. J. Van Lanen

367

Minimizing geopolitically ungauged catchment area of transboundary river basins to support disaster risk reduction Kelly M. Kibler

374

Probability distribution of rainfall in the Bia watershed: contribution of Markov chains Meledje N'diaye Hermann, Kouassi Kouakou Lazare, Ngo Yao Alexis & Savane Issiaka

379

Assessment of rainfall observed by weather radar and its effect on hydrological simulation performance Nghi Vu Van, Nhung Tran Thi & Quyet Le Dinh

386

Predicting soil water retention characteristics for Vietnam Mekong Delta soils Nguyen M. Phuong, Le V. Khoa & Wim Cornelis

392

xii

55 RRegional oobservational-hydrological modelling frameworks

Connecting streamflow and atmospheric conditions in Europe: state-of-the-art review and future directions David M. Hannah, Anne K. Fleig, Daniel G. Kingston, James H. Stagge & Donna Wilson

401

Water budget in the Amazon basin and impacts on flood modelling Augusto Getirana, Sujay Kumar, Christa Peters-Lidard & Kristi Arsenault

407

Measurement, modelling and analysis of hydrological and hydrogeological processes and trends in a marsh area Branka Bracic Zeleznik & Lidija Globevnik

413

From drought to floods in 2012: operations and early warning services in the UK Charlie Pilling, David Price, Adrian Wynn, Andrew Lane, Steven J. Cole, Robert J. Moore & Timothy Aldridge

419

Les lacs collinaires en Tunisie: technique de conservation des eaux et du sol/ Small lakes in Tunisia: water and soil conservation technique Hamadi Habaieb, Taoufik Hermassi, Slaheddine Ghedaoui & Issam Anatar

425

Application of hydrological model to evaluate the potential hydro energy in a mountainous small river basin of Japan Kazumasa Fujimura, Masahiro Murakami, Yoshihiko Iseri & Shinjiro Kanae

431

Influence des activités anthropiques sur le régime hydrologique du fleuve Logone de 1960 à 2000 / Human activities influence on the hydrological regime of the Logone River basin from 1960 to 2000 N. Tellro Waï, B. Ngounou Ngatcha, G. Mahe, J. C. Doumnang, F. Delclaux, N. Goundoul & P. Genthon

438

Estimation of runoff curve numbers using a physically-based approach of preferential flow modelling Pori Das, Aminul Islam, Subashisa Dutta, Amit K. Dubey & Rupak Sarkar

443

6 Changes in ecological flows and coastal ecohydrology

Hydrological regime of a tidal system in the Red River Delta, northern Vietnam Luu Thi Nguyet Minh, Didier Orange, Tran Hong Thai, Josette Garnier, Le Lan Anh & Trinh Anh Duc

451

Measuring impact of water management on ecological health of a river: Poudre River, Colorado, USA Robert T. Milhous

457

Impact of climate change on aquatic ecosystems along the Asse River network Thomas Cipriani, François Tilmant, Flora Branger, Eric Sauquet & Thibault Datry

463

Ecological flow for integrated planning of small hydropower plants: a case study from Greece Thomas Patsialis, Charalampos Skoulikaris & Jacques Ganoulis

469

Key word index 475