iaea emras ii : background and introduction. environmental modelling for radiation safety (emras ii)...

IAEA EMRAS IIIAEA EMRAS II: background and : background and

introductionintroduction

•

EEnvironmental nvironmental MModelling for odelling for RARAdiation diation SSafety (EMRAS II)afety (EMRAS II)

General aim of programme General aim of programme

To improve capabilities in the field of To improve capabilities in the field of environmental radiation dose environmental radiation dose assessmentassessment

Means for achieving improvementMeans for achieving improvement

- acquisition of improved data for model testingacquisition of improved data for model testing

- model testing and comparisonmodel testing and comparison

- reaching consensus on modelling philosophies, reaching consensus on modelling philosophies, approaches and parameter valuesapproaches and parameter values

- development of improved methodsdevelopment of improved methods

- exchange of informationexchange of information

Brief history of international Brief history of international environmental model testing and environmental model testing and

improvementimprovement

1985-90 BIOMOVS – Swedish sponsored1985-90 BIOMOVS – Swedish sponsored 1988-94 – the IAEA VAMP programme 1988-94 – the IAEA VAMP programme

(prompted by Chernobyl)(prompted by Chernobyl) 1996-2002– the IAEA BIOMASS 1996-2002– the IAEA BIOMASS

programmeprogramme 2003-2007- the IAEA EMRAS I 2003-2007- the IAEA EMRAS I

programmeprogramme 2009 – new programme IAEA EMRAS II2009 – new programme IAEA EMRAS II

Contents of Past ProgrammesContents of Past Programmes

VAMP VAMP mainly scenarios from Chernobyl releasemainly scenarios from Chernobyl release transfer data collectiontransfer data collection

BIOMASS BIOMASS Chernobyl scenarios with othersChernobyl scenarios with others environmental clean-upenvironmental clean-up methodology for assessing the long term environmental impact methodology for assessing the long term environmental impact

of radioactive waste disposal (Reference biospheres)of radioactive waste disposal (Reference biospheres) EMRAS IEMRAS I

scenarios from routine and accident situationsscenarios from routine and accident situations transfer data review and updatetransfer data review and update biota model testing and comparison biota model testing and comparison

EMRAS I topics (1)EMRAS I topics (1)

Theme 1: Radioactive release assessmentTheme 1: Radioactive release assessment TRS-364 WGTRS-364 WG

Revision of IAEA transfer data handbookRevision of IAEA transfer data handbook New and revised dataNew and revised data now includes tropical datanow includes tropical data

I-131 WGI-131 WG Model testingModel testing Chernobyl scenarios, dose and environmental Chernobyl scenarios, dose and environmental

concentrationsconcentrations

EMRAS I topics (2)EMRAS I topics (2)

H-3 and C-14 WGH-3 and C-14 WG Model testingModel testing Real routine release and accidental release Real routine release and accidental release

scenarios, scenarios, OBT concernsOBT concerns

Aquatic WGAquatic WG model testingmodel testing real routine and accidental release scenarios,real routine and accidental release scenarios, rivers and lakesrivers and lakes

EMRAS I topics (3)EMRAS I topics (3) Theme 2: Remediation assessmentTheme 2: Remediation assessment Urban WGUrban WG

limited testing and comparison limited testing and comparison urban contamination following accidental releasesurban contamination following accidental releases a real scenario and a hypothetical scenarioa real scenario and a hypothetical scenario

NORM WGNORM WG mainly scenario development and model and data collection mainly scenario development and model and data collection

Theme 3: Assessments related to Protection of the Theme 3: Assessments related to Protection of the EnvironmentEnvironment

Biota WGBiota WG model comparison and testingmodel comparison and testing real chronic releases to lake real chronic releases to lake

EMRAS I outputEMRAS I output

Overview/summary booklet with reports of Overview/summary booklet with reports of 6 WGs in attached CD(s)6 WGs in attached CD(s)

Revision of TRS 364 to be issued in TRS Revision of TRS 364 to be issued in TRS series series

Follow-up to EMRASFollow-up to EMRAS IAEA has recognised value of EMRAS and the IAEA has recognised value of EMRAS and the

previous programmes and decided to sponsor previous programmes and decided to sponsor another programme in this field another programme in this field

The new programme should be linked toThe new programme should be linked to real issues in radiological risk assessmentreal issues in radiological risk assessment to the needs of countriesto the needs of countries to new international developmentsto new international developments

Avoid topics which are mainly only of academic Avoid topics which are mainly only of academic interest interest

Preparation for EMRAS IIPreparation for EMRAS II

Ideas from IAEA Conference on Ideas from IAEA Conference on Environmental Radioactivity (April 2007)Environmental Radioactivity (April 2007)

Ideas from Final EMRAS I meeting (Nov Ideas from Final EMRAS I meeting (Nov 2007)2007)

Input from Questionnaire sent to EMRAS Input from Questionnaire sent to EMRAS participants in Dec 2007)participants in Dec 2007)

Views of IAEA SecretariatViews of IAEA Secretariat Consultants Meeting in May 2008Consultants Meeting in May 2008

Preparation for EMRAS II Preparation for EMRAS II

EMRAS I – Participants’ ideas (1)EMRAS I – Participants’ ideas (1)

Continue some existing WGs: Continue some existing WGs: i.e., Biota, H-3/C-14, Urban, NORMi.e., Biota, H-3/C-14, Urban, NORM

Also, use new model testing scenariosAlso, use new model testing scenarios



H-3/C-14 – testing in new situations but alsoH-3/C-14 – testing in new situations but also a political need in some countries a political need in some countries transfer of knowledge and trainingtransfer of knowledge and training

Urban Urban dispersion and transfer modelling not yet reliabledispersion and transfer modelling not yet reliable currently an important topic currently an important topic

NORM NORM only slightly explored as yetonly slightly explored as yet almost all countries have NORM issues almost all countries have NORM issues must be coherent with other IAEA activities in this areamust be coherent with other IAEA activities in this area



Biota – more to do, Biota – more to do, model testing and comparisonmodel testing and comparison international reference transfer datainternational reference transfer data interact with other international projects, e.g., ICRP and ECinteract with other international projects, e.g., ICRP and EC

New model testing scenarios (Russian rivers and New model testing scenarios (Russian rivers and estuaries)estuaries)

integrated testing – several nuclides, aquatic and terrestrial integrated testing – several nuclides, aquatic and terrestrial environmentsenvironments

human and biota impacts,human and biota impacts, countermeasure effectiveness countermeasure effectiveness



Transfer of knowledge and providing trainingTransfer of knowledge and providing training• A new recognition of the importance of EMRAS A new recognition of the importance of EMRAS

type programmes for facilitating the transfer of type programmes for facilitating the transfer of knowledge to younger generations and for knowledge to younger generations and for providing training for new generations of assessorsproviding training for new generations of assessors


New ideas (1)New ideas (1) Implications of new ICRP Implications of new ICRP

recommendations and BSS revision for recommendations and BSS revision for assessment modellingassessment modelling

Needs of developing countries – small Needs of developing countries – small scale releases (semi-training) scale releases (semi-training)

Nuclear renaissance – improved Nuclear renaissance – improved international guidance for environmental international guidance for environmental assessment of new facilitiesassessment of new facilities


New ideasNew ideas (2)(2) Harmonized approach for protection of Harmonized approach for protection of

humans and biotahumans and biota Environmental sensitivity – variation of Environmental sensitivity – variation of

appropriate countermeasures with appropriate countermeasures with environment typeenvironment type

Effects of environmental change on Effects of environmental change on assessment of long term impact of waste assessment of long term impact of waste repositoriesrepositories

Proposals for EMRAS IIProposals for EMRAS II

Four Working GroupsFour Working Groups covering: covering: most of the topics previously most of the topics previously

mentionedmentioned but with a new focus on developing but with a new focus on developing

international guidance on assessment international guidance on assessment methods, that is, methods, that is, reference reference approaches approaches


1. Reference and Graded Approaches for 1. Reference and Graded Approaches for Assessing the Impact of Radioactive Discharges Assessing the Impact of Radioactive Discharges emphasis on:emphasis on:

establishing and testing reference assessment schemes for establishing and testing reference assessment schemes for regulatory purposes,regulatory purposes,

the graded approach for determining compliancethe graded approach for determining compliance

2. Reference Approaches for Assessing the 2. Reference Approaches for Assessing the Radiation Doses to BiotaRadiation Doses to Biota

emphasis on:emphasis on: continuing EMRAS I work on biota model testing,continuing EMRAS I work on biota model testing, a handbook of transfer parameter data for biotaa handbook of transfer parameter data for biota


3. Assessment after Emergency Situations3. Assessment after Emergency Situations emphasis on:emphasis on: evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures, evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures, developing a reference accident assessment model for developing a reference accident assessment model for

tritiumtritium

4. Integrated Assessment4. Integrated Assessment emphasis on multi-nuclide, multi-media model testing emphasis on multi-nuclide, multi-media model testing

with varied endpoints. with varied endpoints.

Working Group 1Working Group 1 (Reference and Graded (Reference and Graded Approaches for Assessing the Impact of Radioactive Approaches for Assessing the Impact of Radioactive

Discharges)Discharges) 1A. Prospective assessment of radioactive 1A. Prospective assessment of radioactive

dischargesdischarges Establishing reference principles and procedures for the Establishing reference principles and procedures for the

prospective assessment of radioactive releases – prospective assessment of radioactive releases – standard models, parameters, assumptions.standard models, parameters, assumptions.

Testing of model predictions based on harmonized Testing of model predictions based on harmonized principles and proceduresprinciples and procedures

1B. Prospective assessment of the long-term 1B. Prospective assessment of the long-term impact of radioactive waste repositories impact of radioactive waste repositories

Extension of the BIOMASS reference biosphere work to Extension of the BIOMASS reference biosphere work to consider influence of environmental changeconsider influence of environmental change


Discharges)Discharges)

1C. Prospective assessment of the impact of 1C. Prospective assessment of the impact of NORM releases to the environment.NORM releases to the environment.

Model improvement and testing for NORM releasesModel improvement and testing for NORM releases Exploration of reference regulatory approaches to Exploration of reference regulatory approaches to

NORM release assessmentNORM release assessment 1D. Assessments for demonstrating compliance 1D. Assessments for demonstrating compliance

Reference and graded assessment schemes for Reference and graded assessment schemes for demonstrating compliance at the operational stage demonstrating compliance at the operational stage

Use of source and environmental monitoring data and Use of source and environmental monitoring data and development of guidance on appropriate monitoring development of guidance on appropriate monitoring schemes schemes


Discharges)Discharges)

1E. Harmonized assessment scheme for 1E. Harmonized assessment scheme for protecting humans and biotaprotecting humans and biota

Review and testing of existing and new proposals for an Review and testing of existing and new proposals for an integrated approachintegrated approach

Coordinate with WG 2Coordinate with WG 2

Working Group 2 Working Group 2 (Reference approaches for (Reference approaches for

assessing radiation doses to biota)assessing radiation doses to biota)

Complete work of EMRAS on model Complete work of EMRAS on model testingtesting

Develop handbook of transfer parameter Develop handbook of transfer parameter values for application to biotavalues for application to biota

Develop protection quantities and levels Develop protection quantities and levels for biotafor biota

Working Group 3 Working Group 3 (Assessment after (Assessment after emergency situations)emergency situations)

3A. Urban situations3A. Urban situations Evaluation of effectiveness of countermeasures – model Evaluation of effectiveness of countermeasures – model

comparison and testingcomparison and testing Complete EMRAS I workComplete EMRAS I work 3B.3B. Rural situations – environmental sensitivityRural situations – environmental sensitivity Model evaluation of the influence of environmental Model evaluation of the influence of environmental

sensitivity on countermeasure effectivenesssensitivity on countermeasure effectiveness Determining the most appropriate rural countermeasuresDetermining the most appropriate rural countermeasures 3C. Tritium accidents3C. Tritium accidents Model testing and comparison Model testing and comparison Develop a reference conceptual dynamic model for Develop a reference conceptual dynamic model for

tritium accident dose assessmenttritium accident dose assessment

Working Group 4 Working Group 4 (Integrated (Integrated assessment)assessment)

Seek suitable (unique and unusual) data Seek suitable (unique and unusual) data setssets

Test modelsTest models Aim for scenarios with releases to multiple Aim for scenarios with releases to multiple

media (air, land, rivers and sea), multiple media (air, land, rivers and sea), multiple nuclides and a range of endpointsnuclides and a range of endpoints

Two additional potential topicsTwo additional potential topics

Norway – international guidance on regulatory Norway – international guidance on regulatory assessment toolsassessment tools

In particular, prospective assessments of the impacts to In particular, prospective assessments of the impacts to be addressed during the planning and implementation of be addressed during the planning and implementation of the remediation of legacy sitesthe remediation of legacy sites

(to be considered by WG1) (to be considered by WG1) France – biota effects analysis France – biota effects analysis Modelling to determine dose effects on species, Modelling to determine dose effects on species,

derivation of species protection thresholds, population derivation of species protection thresholds, population effects, acquisition of relevant dataeffects, acquisition of relevant data

(to be considered by WG2)(to be considered by WG2)

ConsiderationsConsiderations

Practicalities Practicalities ViabilityViability

For a new WG or sub-group within the new For a new WG or sub-group within the new programme, there must be evidence of programme, there must be evidence of sufficient support from Member States for sufficient support from Member States for proposals – WGs must be viable, e.g., proposals – WGs must be viable, e.g., sufficient modellers prepared to submit sufficient modellers prepared to submit estimates using their models, evidence of estimates using their models, evidence of data sources and suppliersdata sources and suppliers

Arrangements for this meetingArrangements for this meeting

1. Each participant should indicate his/her 1. Each participant should indicate his/her interest in one (or more) of the Working interest in one (or more) of the Working Groups.Groups.

2. Temporary ‘Moderators’ have been 2. Temporary ‘Moderators’ have been appointed for this meeting for each WGappointed for this meeting for each WG

WG 1WG 1 WG 2 Brenda HowardWG 2 Brenda Howard WG 3 Kathy ThiessenWG 3 Kathy Thiessen WG 4 Gerhard ProhlWG 4 Gerhard Prohl

Arrangements for this meetingArrangements for this meeting

3. The Moderator of each WG will hold discussions 3. The Moderator of each WG will hold discussions on the potential work of the WG, including on the potential work of the WG, including presentations on proposed topics if appropriatepresentations on proposed topics if appropriate Should all of the topics be addressed? Should all of the topics be addressed? Are there additional topics to be considered?Are there additional topics to be considered? Is there enough interest to justify work on a particular Is there enough interest to justify work on a particular

topic?topic? Can a reasonable working plan be developed for the WG Can a reasonable working plan be developed for the WG

4.WG leaders should be identified and, if necessary, 4.WG leaders should be identified and, if necessary, sub-groups established and Leaders identified.sub-groups established and Leaders identified.

Main goals to be achievedMain goals to be achieved at the at the end of the meetingend of the meeting

1- Realistic working plans (including 1- Realistic working plans (including location of the meetings)location of the meetings)

2 – Evidence of WG and Sub-WG viability2 – Evidence of WG and Sub-WG viability 3 - WG leader's name3 - WG leader's name 4 - WG sub-groups, if needed, with the 4 - WG sub-groups, if needed, with the

names of the sub-group leaders. names of the sub-group leaders.

Benefits of international model Benefits of international model testingtesting

Opportunities to compare with other Opportunities to compare with other groupsgroups

Wider selection of scenarios for testingWider selection of scenarios for testing Wider selection of transfer data Wider selection of transfer data Improve modelling capabilities globallyImprove modelling capabilities globally

OrganizationOrganization

Typically 20-30 countries involvedTypically 20-30 countries involved Active participation > 100 personsActive participation > 100 persons Working groups – 10-20 membersWorking groups – 10-20 members Meetings - one combined meeting/year, Meetings - one combined meeting/year,

two/three WG meetings/yeartwo/three WG meetings/year Funding – small amounts of IAEA and Funding – small amounts of IAEA and

sponsor money – mainly self-supporting.sponsor money – mainly self-supporting.

EMRAS processEMRAS process

Model testingModel testing Test scenario obtained and checked (by Test scenario obtained and checked (by

data providers)data providers) Modellers invited to make the predictions Modellers invited to make the predictions

requested for the scenario (blind testing)requested for the scenario (blind testing) Predictions compared with observations Predictions compared with observations

and discussed.and discussed. Reasons for mis-prediction identifiedReasons for mis-prediction identified Conclusions drawn on how to improveConclusions drawn on how to improve

Typical formatTypical format

Model testing using real environmental Model testing using real environmental data setsdata sets

Model comparison – where no good data Model comparison – where no good data sets existsets exist

Data improvement – international Data improvement – international reference transfer datareference transfer data

EMRAS processEMRAS process Model comparisonModel comparison Similar to model testing but with hypothetical Similar to model testing but with hypothetical

scenariosscenarios Analysis based entirely on discussion between Analysis based entirely on discussion between

modellersmodellers Establishing Reference Data SetsEstablishing Reference Data Sets Bring together national experts on transfer dataBring together national experts on transfer data Review literatureReview literature Summarise and recommend default values for Summarise and recommend default values for

use in modelling indicating associated use in modelling indicating associated uncertaintiesuncertainties

IAEA plansIAEA plans

Review proposals early 2008Review proposals early 2008 Propose new programme early/mid-2008Propose new programme early/mid-2008 Evaluate Member States’ responsesEvaluate Member States’ responses Make definitive proposal mid/late 2008Make definitive proposal mid/late 2008 11stst meeting new programme - November meeting new programme - November

20082008


IAEA viewsIAEA views Draw on new ICRP exposure scenarios for programme Draw on new ICRP exposure scenarios for programme

structure, i.e., planned, existing and emergencystructure, i.e., planned, existing and emergency PlannedPlanned i) emphasise integrated assessment modelling – i) emphasise integrated assessment modelling –

multiple nuclides, multiple environments – idea of an multiple nuclides, multiple environments – idea of an international methodologyinternational methodology

ii) Biota dose assessment ii) Biota dose assessment ExistingExisting – assessment of environments affected by – assessment of environments affected by

NORMNORM EmergencyEmergency – consideration of ‘environmental sensitivity’ – consideration of ‘environmental sensitivity’

in assessment modellingin assessment modelling

iaea emras ii : background and introduction. environmental modelling for radiation safety (emras ii)...

Documents

model testing model

testing model comparison

aquatic wg model testing

comparison biota model

accidental release scenarios

update biota model testing

comparison limited testing

comparison slide