krajewski 11 november 2004 theme 1: radioactive release … · 1 2nd combined meetings of the iaea...
TRANSCRIPT
1
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
Paw
ełK
raje
wsk
i(E
MR
AS
Iodi
ne W
orki
ng G
roup
Lea
der)
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p 3
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p 3
The
Ch
ern
obyl
I-1
31
rel
ease
:m
odel
val
idat
ion
an
d as
sess
men
t of
th
e co
un
term
easu
re e
ffec
tive
nes
s w
orki
ng
grou
p
TH
EM
E 1
: Rad
ioac
tive
Rel
ease
Ass
essm
ent
Cen
tral
Lab
orat
ory
for
Rad
iolo
gica
l Pro
tect
ion
Cen
tral
Lab
orat
ory
for
Rad
iolo
gica
l Pro
tect
ion
WA
RSA
WW
AR
SAW
, PO
LAN
D, P
OLA
ND
2
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
IWG
con
tin
ues
som
e o
f th
e m
ore
tr
ad
itio
nal
wo
rk o
f th
e
pre
vio
us
inte
rnati
on
al
pro
gra
mm
es
that
have b
een
aim
ed
at
incr
easi
ng
co
nfi
den
ce
in
meth
od
san
d
mo
dels
fo
r th
e
ass
ess
men
t o
f ra
dia
tio
n
exp
osu
re
rela
ted
to
th
e
to
the
en
vir
on
men
tal
rele
ase
s.en
vir
on
men
tal
rele
ase
s.
the
IAEA
’sV
alid
atio
n o
f M
odel
Pre
dict
ion
s (V
AM
P)
the
IAEA
’sB
IOM
OV
S
the
BIO
MO
VS
II**
(Bio
sph
eric
Mod
el V
alid
atio
n S
tudy
)
the
IAEA
’s B
IOM
ASS
(B
IOsp
her
eM
odel
ling
and
ASS
essm
ent)
term
inat
ed in
20
01
**su
pport
ed b
y org
anis
atio
ns
from
Can
ada,
Spain
and
Sw
eden
.
Back
gro
un
d
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
3
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
act
ivit
y o
f th
e I
WG
act
ivit
y o
f th
e I
WG
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
•to
test
an
d c
om
pare
mo
dels
’ p
red
icti
on
s w
ith
real
en
vir
on
men
tal
data
•to
inte
rco
mp
are
mo
dellin
g a
pp
roach
es
an
d
mo
del
pre
dic
tio
ns
am
on
g s
evera
l ass
ess
ors
en
vir
on
men
tal
mo
dell
ing
exerc
ises
on
en
vir
on
men
tal
mo
dell
ing
exerc
ises
on
rad
ioio
din
era
dio
iod
ine
4
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
mmaain
targ
ets
of
IWG
in t
arg
ets
of
IWG
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
majo
r are
as
of
em
ph
asi
s:m
ajo
r are
as
of
em
ph
asi
s:
••im
pro
vem
en
t o
f m
od
els
pre
dic
tio
ns
acc
ura
cy b
y id
en
tifi
cati
on
im
pro
vem
en
t o
f m
od
els
pre
dic
tio
ns
acc
ura
cy b
y id
en
tifi
cati
on
th
e m
ost
im
po
rtan
t so
urc
es
of
bia
s an
d u
nce
rtain
tyth
e m
ost
im
po
rtan
t so
urc
es
of
bia
s an
d u
nce
rtain
ty
••im
ple
men
tati
on
of
new
mo
dellin
g p
roce
du
res
imp
lem
en
tati
on
of
new
mo
dellin
g p
roce
du
res
sup
po
rted
by
sup
po
rted
by
curr
en
t st
ate
of
kn
ow
led
ge a
bo
ut
pro
cess
es
an
d p
hen
om
en
acu
rren
t st
ate
of
kn
ow
led
ge a
bo
ut
pro
cess
es
an
d p
hen
om
en
a
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
••ch
eck
mo
dels
perf
orm
an
ce in
do
se r
eco
nst
ruct
ion
in
ch
eck
mo
dels
perf
orm
an
ce in
do
se r
eco
nst
ruct
ion
in
a
a c
ase
ca
se
wh
en
w
hen
13
71
37C
s (
Cs
(12
91
29I)
tra
cer
is u
sed
fo
r est
imati
on
of
I) t
race
r is
use
d f
or
est
imati
on
of
13
11
31I
dep
osi
tio
nI
dep
osi
tio
n
••ch
eck
mo
dels
ap
plica
bilit
y t
o c
ou
nte
rmeasu
re r
esp
on
sech
eck
mo
dels
ap
plica
bilit
y t
o c
ou
nte
rmeasu
re r
esp
on
se
••u
nce
rtain
tyu
nce
rtain
ty?,
l?,
lim
itati
on
imit
ati
on
?,
?,
req
uest
ed
in
pu
tre
qu
est
ed
in
pu
td
ata
?d
ata
?
5
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
nu
mero
us
rep
ort
s h
ave c
on
firm
ed
an
in
creasi
ng
nu
mb
er
of
case
s n
um
ero
us
rep
ort
s h
ave c
on
firm
ed
an
in
creasi
ng
nu
mb
er
of
case
s o
f th
yro
id c
an
cer,
part
icu
larl
y i
n t
he m
ost
heavily c
on
tam
inate
do
f th
yro
id c
an
cer,
part
icu
larl
y i
n t
he m
ost
heavily c
on
tam
inate
dre
gio
ns
of
Ukra
ine a
nd
Bela
rus,
bu
t als
o i
n R
uss
iare
gio
ns
of
Ukra
ine a
nd
Bela
rus,
bu
t als
o i
n R
uss
ia
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
the
conf
iden
t re
cons
truc
tion
of
the
aver
age
and
the
conf
iden
t re
cons
truc
tion
of
the
aver
age
and
pers
onal
thy
roid
dos
e in
aff
ecte
d ar
eas
is r
equi
red:
pers
onal
thy
roid
dos
e in
aff
ecte
d ar
eas
is r
equi
red:
••to
co
nfi
rm t
he s
peci
al m
ed
ical
aid
to
th
e p
op
ula
tio
n a
nd
to
co
nfi
rm t
he s
peci
al m
ed
ical
aid
to
th
e p
op
ula
tio
n a
nd
measu
res
of
soci
al
pro
tect
ion
measu
res
of
soci
al
pro
tect
ion
••tt o
pro
vid
e i
nfo
rmati
on
fo
r th
e p
ub
lic
an
d t
he a
uth
ori
ties
o p
rovid
e i
nfo
rmati
on
fo
r th
e p
ub
lic
an
d t
he a
uth
ori
ties
an
d e
nsu
re e
pid
em
iolo
gic
al in
vest
igati
on
s.an
d e
nsu
re e
pid
em
iolo
gic
al in
vest
igati
on
s.
AD
DIT
ION
AL A
SP
EC
T O
F I
WG
AC
TIV
ITY
AD
DIT
ION
AL A
SP
EC
T O
F I
WG
AC
TIV
ITY
6
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
••u
nce
rtain
tyu
nce
rtain
ty?,
l?,
lim
itati
on
imit
ati
on
??
the q
uan
tita
tive r
ela
tio
nsh
ip b
etw
een
rad
iati
on
do
se t
o t
he
the q
uan
tita
tive r
ela
tio
nsh
ip b
etw
een
rad
iati
on
do
se t
o t
he
thyro
id f
rom
Ch
ern
ob
yl
an
d t
he r
isk o
f th
yro
id c
an
cer.
thyro
id f
rom
Ch
ern
ob
yl
an
d t
he r
isk o
f th
yro
id c
an
cer.
tt he u
nce
rtain
ty c
om
bin
ed
wit
h i
nd
ivid
ual
est
imate
s o
f h
e u
nce
rtain
ty c
om
bin
ed
wit
h i
nd
ivid
ual
est
imate
s o
f ra
dia
tio
n d
ose
co
nst
itu
tes
a c
ruci
al p
oin
t in
est
ab
lish
ing
ra
dia
tio
n d
ose
co
nst
itu
tes
a c
ruci
al p
oin
t in
est
ab
lish
ing
th
is r
ela
tio
nsh
ip,
sin
ce,
an
y r
ele
ase
of
this
rela
tio
nsh
ip,
sin
ce,
an
y r
ele
ase
of
rad
ioio
din
era
dio
iod
ine
into
in
to
en
vir
on
men
t cr
eate
s w
ide r
an
ge o
f u
nce
rtain
ty f
or
en
vir
on
men
t cr
eate
s w
ide r
an
ge o
f u
nce
rtain
ty f
or
inte
rnal
do
se a
ssess
men
ts.
inte
rnal
do
se a
ssess
men
ts.
case
–con
trol
stu
dies
of
thyr
oid
canc
er
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
7
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
majo
r so
urc
es
of
the u
nce
rtain
tym
ajo
r so
urc
es
of
the u
nce
rtain
ty::
••sm
all
nu
mb
er
an
d p
oo
r q
uali
ty o
f th
yro
id m
easu
rem
en
ts
small
nu
mb
er
an
d p
oo
r q
uali
ty o
f th
yro
id m
easu
rem
en
ts
perf
orm
ed
aft
er
Ch
ern
ob
yl
acc
iden
tp
erf
orm
ed
aft
er
Ch
ern
ob
yl
acc
iden
t
••d
iffi
cult
ies
in e
valu
ati
on
an
d v
alid
ati
on
of
the d
yn
am
ic o
f th
e
dif
ficu
ltie
s in
evalu
ati
on
an
d v
alid
ati
on
of
the d
yn
am
ic o
f th
e
13
11
31I
inta
kes
fun
ctio
n in
to a
hu
man
bo
dy b
ase
d o
n s
pars
e
I in
takes
fun
ctio
n in
to a
hu
man
bo
dy b
ase
d o
n s
pars
e
(sin
gle
po
int)
in
div
idu
al
thyro
id m
easu
rem
en
ts a
nd
(sin
gle
po
int)
in
div
idu
al
thyro
id m
easu
rem
en
ts a
nd
lack
of
lack
of
mil
k
mil
k
sam
ple
s in
earl
y p
eri
od
s o
f acc
iden
tsa
mp
les
in e
arl
y p
eri
od
s o
f acc
iden
t ..
••la
rge v
ari
ety
in
in
hab
itan
ts b
eh
avio
ur
an
d a
gri
cult
ura
l la
rge v
ari
ety
in
in
hab
itan
ts b
eh
avio
ur
an
d a
gri
cult
ura
l
pra
ctic
es
(th
e t
ime w
hen
cow
s h
ad
been
pu
t o
n a
fre
sh
pra
ctic
es
(th
e t
ime w
hen
cow
s h
ad
been
pu
t o
n a
fre
sh
past
ure
) h
ave c
on
sid
era
ble
im
pact
on
do
ses
vari
ab
ilit
y.
past
ure
) h
ave c
on
sid
era
ble
im
pact
on
do
ses
vari
ab
ilit
y.
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
8
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
Th
e
Th
e 1
31
1
31
II--
scen
ari
os
pro
vid
e a
n e
xce
llen
t o
pp
ort
un
ity
scen
ari
os
pro
vid
e a
n e
xce
llen
t o
pp
ort
un
ity
to c
om
pare
a n
um
ber
of
mo
dell
ing
ap
pro
ach
es
to
to c
om
pare
a n
um
ber
of
mo
dell
ing
ap
pro
ach
es
to
a s
ing
le a
ssess
men
t p
rob
lem
, a s
ing
le a
ssess
men
t p
rob
lem
,
in a
do
se r
eco
nst
ruct
ion
co
nte
xt
in
a d
ose
reco
nst
ruct
ion
co
nte
xt
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
9
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
BIO
MA
SS
Them
e 2,
the
Dose
Rec
onst
ruct
ion
Work
ing G
roup
was
conce
rned
with t
he
eval
uat
ion o
f th
e re
liabili
ty o
f m
ethods
and
model
suse
d f
or
dose
rec
onst
ruct
ion f
or
spec
ific
indiv
idual
s an
d m
ember
s of
spec
ific
popula
tion
subgro
ups.
In t
he p
ast
en
vir
on
men
tal m
od
ellin
g e
xerc
ises,
on
ly t
wo
I-1
31
sce
nari
os
had
been
evalu
ate
d,
nam
ely
:
BR
EM
EN
SC
EN
AR
IOB
REM
EN
SC
EN
AR
IO(B
IOM
OV
S I
I)
HA
NFO
RD
SC
EN
AR
IOH
AN
FO
RD
SC
EN
AR
IO(B
IOM
AS
S)
HA
NFO
RD
SC
EN
AR
IO -
rele
ase
of
13
1I
fro
m t
he H
an
ford
Pu
rex
Ch
em
ical
Sep
ara
tio
ns
Pla
nt
in t
he
no
rth
west
ern
Un
ited
Sta
tes
in
Sep
tem
ber
19
63
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
10
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
Nece
ssit
y o
f p
erf
orm
ing
en
vir
on
men
tal m
od
ellin
g e
xerc
ises?
Nece
ssit
y o
f p
erf
orm
ing
en
vir
on
men
tal m
od
ellin
g e
xerc
ises?
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
Pre
dic
ted
th
yro
id d
ose
s to
th
e t
wo
Pre
dic
ted
th
yro
id d
ose
s to
th
e t
wo
child
ren
wit
h h
igh
milk c
on
sum
pti
on
ch
ild
ren
wit
h h
igh
milk c
on
sum
pti
on
ra
ng
ed
fro
m 0
.00
6 t
o 2
mS
vra
ng
ed
fro
m 0
.00
6 t
o 2
mS
v
Co
mp
en
sato
ry e
ffect
s (a
hig
h p
red
icti
on
in
on
e m
od
el co
mp
art
men
tC
om
pen
sato
ry e
ffect
s (a
hig
h p
red
icti
on
in
on
e m
od
el co
mp
art
men
tb
ein
g o
ffse
t b
y a
lo
wb
ein
g o
ffse
t b
y a
lo
wp
red
icti
on
in
an
oth
er
com
part
men
t) w
ere
qu
ite
pre
dic
tio
n i
n a
no
ther
com
part
men
t) w
ere
qu
ite
com
mo
n in
th
is t
est
exerc
ise.
com
mo
n in
th
is t
est
exerc
ise.
Majo
r so
urc
es
of
un
cert
ain
ty in
th
is e
xerc
ise in
clu
de
Majo
r so
urc
es
of
un
cert
ain
ty in
th
is e
xerc
ise in
clu
de
::
atm
osp
heri
c tr
an
spo
rt (
wh
ich
co
uld
co
ntr
ibu
te a
s m
uch
as
a f
act
oatm
osp
heri
c tr
an
spo
rt (
wh
ich
co
uld
co
ntr
ibu
te a
s m
uch
as
a f
act
or
of
r o
f 2
02
0-- 5
0),
50
),re
pre
sen
tati
ven
ess
rep
rese
nta
tiven
ess
of
availab
le m
easu
rem
en
ts,
iod
ine
of
availab
le m
easu
rem
en
ts,
iod
ine
speci
ati
on
, tr
eatm
en
t o
r n
eg
lect
of
speci
ati
on
, tr
eatm
en
t o
r n
eg
lect
of
terr
ain
eff
ect
s, a
ctu
al co
nsu
mp
tio
n
terr
ain
eff
ect
s, a
ctu
al co
nsu
mp
tio
n
an
d m
eta
bo
lic
rate
san
d m
eta
bo
lic
rate
s
Sele
cted
co
ncl
usi
on
s o
f H
AN
FO
RD
SC
EN
AR
IOS
ele
cted
co
ncl
usi
on
s o
f H
AN
FO
RD
SC
EN
AR
IO(B
IOM
AS
S):
11
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
MIL
ES
TO
NES
MIL
ES
TO
NES
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
11stst
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
(1
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
(1
-- 5 S
ep
tem
ber
20
03
)5
Sep
tem
ber
20
03
)
develo
pd
evelo
pin
gin
gap
pro
pri
ate
sce
nari
os
for
mo
del
vali
dati
on
ap
pro
pri
ate
sce
nari
os
for
mo
del
vali
dati
on
aan
dn
dco
llect
collect
ing
ing
measu
rem
en
t d
ata
sets
measu
rem
en
t d
ata
sets
qu
ali
tyq
uali
tych
eck
check
ing
ing
of
inp
ut
an
d m
easu
rem
en
t d
ata
o
f in
pu
t an
d m
easu
rem
en
t d
ata
bbefo
re
efo
re
11stst
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
(1
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
(1
-- 5 S
ep
tem
ber
20
03
)5
Sep
tem
ber
20
03
)
Qu
est
ion
nair
e
Qu
est
ion
nair
e
to
to i
den
tify
part
icip
an
ts o
f p
ote
nti
al
wo
rkin
g g
rou
pid
en
tify
part
icip
an
ts o
f p
ote
nti
al
wo
rkin
g g
rou
p
to
to i
den
tify
su
itab
le d
ata
sets
an
d m
od
els
fo
r te
stin
gid
en
tify
su
itab
le d
ata
sets
an
d m
od
els
fo
r te
stin
g
9 m
odel
lers
9 m
odel
lers
10 s
cena
rios
prop
osal
s10
sce
nario
s pr
opos
als
en
d o
f Ja
nu
ary
20
04
en
d o
f Ja
nu
ary
20
04
the S
cen
ari
oth
e S
cen
ari
oP
lavsk
Pla
vsk
was
evalu
ate
d a
nd
dis
trib
ute
d a
mo
ng
th
e
was
evalu
ate
d a
nd
dis
trib
ute
d a
mo
ng
th
e
part
icip
an
ts t
og
eth
er
wit
h p
red
icti
on
fo
rmu
lari
es
(in
Exce
l fi
lep
art
icip
an
ts t
og
eth
er
wit
h p
red
icti
on
fo
rmu
lari
es
(in
Exce
l fi
le))
Th
e S
cen
ari
o i
s als
o a
vail
ab
le o
n t
he E
MR
AS
WEB
SIT
E:
Th
e S
cen
ari
o i
s als
o a
vail
ab
le o
n t
he E
MR
AS
WEB
SIT
E:
http
://w
ww
http
://w
ww
-- ns.ns. ia
eaia
ea.o
rg/p
roje
cts/
.org
/pro
ject
s/em
ras
emra
s //em
ras
emra
s --io
dine
iodi
ne-- 1
31131 --
wg
wg ..
htm
htm
12
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
MIL
ES
TO
NES
MIL
ES
TO
NES
13
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
CO
NSID
ERED
FU
RTH
ER S
CEN
ARIO
CO
NSID
ERED
FU
RTH
ER S
CEN
ARIO
131
131
I
I W
AR
SA
W S
CE
NA
RIO
W
AR
SA
W S
CE
NA
RIO
(Cher
nobyl
)
in p
rep
ara
tio
n (
desc
rip
tio
n,
ele
ctro
nic
all
y a
vail
ab
le i
np
ut
data
)
ccru
cial
ruci
al
po
ints
fo
r m
od
el vali
dati
on
!p
oin
ts f
or
mo
del vali
dati
on
!
•eff
ect
iven
ess
of
thyro
id b
lock
ing
!
•in
ho
mo
gen
eo
us
13
1I
dep
osi
tio
n
en
d p
oin
ts c
on
sid
ere
d f
or
mo
del te
sten
d p
oin
ts c
on
sid
ere
d f
or
mo
del te
stin
gin
g::
•13
1I
con
cen
trati
on
in
milk
•13
1I
thyro
id b
urd
en
fo
r d
iffe
ren
t ag
e g
rou
ps
for
two
sp
eci
fied
lo
cati
on
cou
nte
rmeasu
res
cou
nte
rmeasu
res
•ad
min
istr
ati
on
of
stab
le i
od
ine s
olu
tio
n (
inte
rvie
ws
DB
),•
lim
itati
on
of
fresh
milk c
on
sum
pti
on
(u
nce
rtain
data
),
•re
stri
ctio
n o
f co
ws
past
uri
ng
(u
nce
rtain
data
)
14
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
PLA
VS
KP
LAV
SK
Sce
nari
oS
cena
rio
(Cher
nobyl
)Pr
imer
y pre
pare
d by
SEN
ES, (
desc
riptio
n, e
lectro
nicall
y ava
ilable
inpu
t dat
a)cu
stom
ised
for
IWG
by Ir
ina Z
wono
wa, P
aweł
Kraje
wski
•• mo
del
vali
dati
on
mo
del
vali
dati
on
pro
ble
mp
rob
lem
!!
reco
nst
ruct
ion
of
13
1I
dep
osi
tio
n u
sin
g 1
37C
s as
a t
race
r
•• sce
nari
o a
dvan
tag
es!
scen
ari
o a
dvan
tag
es!
nu
mero
us
measu
rem
en
ts o
f 1
31I
thyro
id c
on
ten
tsad
eq
uate
data
set
of
13
1I/
13
7C
s ra
tio
in
so
il (
28
May 1
98
6)
••a n
ew
su
bje
ct
a n
ew
su
bje
ct t
otob
e v
ali
date
d!
be v
ali
date
d!
13
1I
thyro
id b
urd
en
fo
r n
ew
bo
rn a
nd
<3
m:
pro
cess
-tr
an
sfer
fact
or
fro
m m
oth
er
bre
ast
to
mil
k
15
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
131
131
I P
LAV
SK
I P
LAV
SK
Sce
nari
oS
cena
rio
(Cher
nobyl
)
en
d p
oin
ts c
on
sid
ere
d f
or
mo
del
vali
dati
on
:en
d p
oin
ts c
on
sid
ere
d f
or
mo
del
vali
dati
on
:
••1
31
13
1I
dep
osi
tio
n (
soil c
on
cen
trati
on
)I
dep
osi
tio
n (
soil c
on
cen
trati
on
)
••a t
ime d
ep
en
den
t a t
ime d
ep
en
den
t 1
31
13
1I
con
cen
trati
on
in
milk
I co
nce
ntr
ati
on
in
milk
in t
he p
eri
od
27
Ap
ril
–3
0 M
ay 1
98
6 f
or
18
milk f
arm
an
d T
ow
n P
lavsk
situ
ate
d a
t d
iffe
ren
t 1
31I
dep
osi
tio
nd
en
sity
••13
11
31I
thyro
id b
urd
en
fo
r d
iffe
ren
t ag
e g
rou
ps:
I th
yro
id b
urd
en
fo
r d
iffe
ren
t ag
e g
rou
ps:
for
urb
an
po
pu
lati
on
(P
lavsk
tow
n):
new
bo
rn,
1-2
, 3
-7,
8-1
2,
13
-17
, ad
ult
for
speci
fied
ru
ral
loca
tio
ns:
new
bo
rn,
1-2
, 3
-7,
8-1
2,
13
-17
, ad
ult
en
d p
oin
ts c
on
sid
ere
d f
or
mo
del
inte
rco
mp
ari
son
:en
d p
oin
ts c
on
sid
ere
d f
or
mo
del
inte
rco
mp
ari
son
:co
mm
itte
d d
ose
s to
th
yro
id f
rom
in
gest
ion
reco
nst
ruct
ion
of
13
1I
air
co
nce
ntr
ati
on
fro
m d
ep
osi
tio
n
inh
ala
tio
n d
ose
co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
o t
he t
ota
l d
ose
16
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
131
131
I P
LAV
SK
I P
LAV
SK
Sce
nari
oS
cena
rio
(Cher
nobyl
)
17
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
11K
rasn
og
or'
eK
rasn
og
or'
e22
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irZ
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ir33
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no
va
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no
va
44P
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ijP
lavsk
ij55
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ere
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izm
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d k
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izm
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ova
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k'j
an
ova
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orb
ach
evsk
ij88
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l'sk
aja
niv
a
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l'sk
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niv
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ija
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ssij
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ekti
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ekti
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nar
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mm
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ar
13
13
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14
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im.X
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aim
.XX
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art
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ol'sk
ijN
ovo
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ol'sk
ij
40
km
wid
th4
0 k
m w
idth
; ; 6
0 k
m h
igh
60
km
hig
h
>37
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; 37
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85–3
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q/m
2 ;
370–
555
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m2 ;
>
555
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>37
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m2
; 37
–185
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m2 ;
1
85–3
70kB
q/m
2 ;
370–
555
kBq/
m2 ;
>
555
kBq/
m2
18
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
MIL
ES
TO
NES
MIL
ES
TO
NES
(co
nt
(co
nt ))
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
2n
d M
eeti
ng
of
the
2n
d M
eeti
ng
of
the
IAEA
’sIA
EA
’sEM
RA
S
IWG
EM
RA
S
IWG
(h
eld
at
the C
IEM
AT,
Mad
rid
, S
pain
, 3
1 M
ay t
o(h
eld
at
the C
IEM
AT,
Mad
rid
, S
pain
, 3
1 M
ay t
o22
Jun
e 2
00
4)
Jun
e 2
00
4)
99p
art
icip
an
ts s
en
t re
sult
s, t
og
eth
er
wit
h q
uest
ion
nair
e
part
icip
an
ts s
en
t re
sult
s, t
og
eth
er
wit
h q
uest
ion
nair
e
sum
mari
zed
ass
um
pti
on
s an
d u
sed
para
mete
rs.
sum
mari
zed
ass
um
pti
on
s an
d u
sed
para
mete
rs.
bli
nd
test
exerc
ise
bli
nd
test
exerc
ise
(wh
en
measu
rem
en
ts r
esu
lts
rem
ain
ed
un
kn
ow
n t
o
part
icip
an
ts)
an
d s
en
t re
sult
s b
efo
re
fro
m F
eb
ruary
to
May 2
00
4fr
om
Feb
ruary
to
May 2
00
4
Irin
a Z
vo
now
aIr
ina Z
vo
now
ap
rovid
ed
th
e o
bse
rved
data
fo
r th
ep
rovid
ed
th
e o
bse
rved
data
fo
r th
eP
lavsk
Pla
vsk
reg
ion
.re
gio
n.
an
aly
sin
g p
red
icti
on
s vers
us
ob
serv
ed
data
an
aly
sin
g p
red
icti
on
s vers
us
ob
serv
ed
data
19
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
MIL
ES
TO
NES
MIL
ES
TO
NES
(co
nt
(co
nt ))
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
Th
e m
easu
rem
en
ts f
or
use
as
test
data
were
not
ideall
y s
uit
ed
fo
r m
od
el te
stin
g
pu
rpo
ses
(i.e
. m
ilk s
am
ple
s w
ere
no
t en
tire
ly r
ep
rese
nta
tive o
f th
e t
est
lo
cati
on
s
or
the t
hyro
id m
easu
rem
en
ts w
ere
in
com
ple
te).
Fo
r th
ese
reaso
ns,
th
e s
eco
nd
ru
n o
f p
red
icti
on
s w
as
pla
ned
wit
hre
sult
s to
be
sen
t b
efo
re t
he N
ovem
ber
20
04
.
Th
is e
xerc
ise w
ill
be s
till
rep
rese
nta
tive f
or
an
act
ual d
ose
reco
nst
ruct
ion
base
d o
n
exis
tin
g d
ata
, w
hate
ver
their
lim
itati
on
, an
d c
on
clu
sio
ns
stil
l b
e v
ali
d f
or
do
se
ass
ess
men
t p
urp
ose
s, e
speci
all
y i
f n
ot
mo
st d
ose
reco
nst
ruct
ion
sit
uati
on
s, t
he
data
availab
le a
re in
com
ple
te o
r im
perf
ect
.
2n
d M
eeti
ng
of
the
2n
d M
eeti
ng
of
the
IAEA
’sIA
EA
’sEM
RA
S
IWG
EM
RA
S
IWG
(h
eld
at
the C
IEM
AT,
Mad
rid
, S
pain
, 3
1 M
ay t
o(h
eld
at
the C
IEM
AT,
Mad
rid
, S
pain
, 3
1 M
ay t
o22
Jun
e 2
00
4)
Jun
e 2
00
4)
con
clu
sio
ns
con
clu
sio
ns
20
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
MIL
ES
TO
NES
MIL
ES
TO
NES
(co
nt
(co
nt ))
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
Jun
e
Jun
e ––
No
vem
ber
20
04
No
vem
ber
20
04
21
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
MIL
ES
TO
NES
MIL
ES
TO
NES
(co
nt
(co
nt ))
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
Jun
e
Jun
e ––
No
vem
ber
20
04
No
vem
ber
20
04
22
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
MIL
ES
TO
NES
MIL
ES
TO
NES
(co
nt
(co
nt ))
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
evalu
ati
on
an
d d
iscu
ssio
n o
f re
sult
s o
f se
con
d r
un
pre
dic
tio
ns
evalu
ati
on
an
d d
iscu
ssio
n o
f re
sult
s o
f se
con
d r
un
pre
dic
tio
ns
pre
para
tio
n o
f d
raft
Fin
al
pre
para
tio
n o
f d
raft
Fin
al
RRep
ort
ep
ort
intr
od
uct
ion
to
th
e W
ars
aw
sce
nari
oin
tro
du
ctio
n t
o t
he W
ars
aw
sce
nari
o
2n
d C
om
bin
ed
Meeti
ng
s o
f th
e I
AEA
2
nd
Co
mb
ined
Meeti
ng
s o
f th
e I
AEA
((EM
RA
S)
EM
RA
S)
88––
11
Novem
ber
20
04
11
Novem
ber
20
04
Th
e g
rou
p a
gre
ed
th
at
the f
irst
mo
del
vali
dati
on
an
d i
nte
rco
mp
ari
son
exerc
ise w
ill
be c
arr
ied
in
20
04
usi
ng
th
eP
lavsk
Sce
nari
o.
Calc
ula
tio
ns
for
the W
ars
aw
sce
nari
o w
ill
be d
ela
yed
un
til
aft
er
the
com
ple
tio
n o
f th
e G
rou
p’s
wo
rk o
n t
he
Pla
vsk
Sce
nari
o.
23
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
MIL
ES
TO
NES
(p
lan
ned
)M
ILES
TO
NES
(p
lan
ned
)
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
dis
trib
uti
on
of
dra
ft W
ars
aw
Sce
nari
od
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f d
raft
Wars
aw
Sce
nari
o
en
d o
f D
ece
mb
er
20
04
en
d o
f D
ece
mb
er
20
04
data
evalu
ati
on
, IW
G R
ep
ort
data
evalu
ati
on
, IW
G R
ep
ort
Jan
uary
20
05
Ja
nu
ary
20
05
--Ju
ne 2
00
5Ju
ne 2
00
5
IWG
mIW
G m
eeti
ng
eeti
ng
May
May
-- Ju
ly 2
00
5Ju
ly 2
00
5
pre
dic
tio
ns
for
Wars
aw
Sce
nari
op
red
icti
on
s fo
r W
ars
aw
Sce
nari
o
dis
clo
sin
g o
bse
rved
data
, evalu
ati
on
of
pre
dic
tio
ns
dis
clo
sin
g o
bse
rved
data
, evalu
ati
on
of
pre
dic
tio
ns
33rdrd
Co
mb
ined
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
Au
tum
n 2
00
5C
om
bin
ed
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
Au
tum
n 2
00
5
July
July
--O
cto
ber
20
05
Oct
ob
er
20
05
seco
nd
ru
n o
f p
red
icti
on
s se
con
d r
un
of
pre
dic
tio
ns
24
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
MO
DELS
MO
DELS
((9participants) Me
dical
Radio
logica
l Re
sear
chCe
nter
Ru
ssia
n
Ru
ssia
n
Fed
era
tio
nFed
era
tio
nO.
Vlas
ov (N
ew)
(New
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IMRA
DCL
IMRA
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Food
Stan
dard
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ncy
UK
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Mr D
. Web
be-W
ood
(New
)(N
ew)
SPAD
ESP
ADE
V.6
V.6
88
Natio
nal C
ance
r Ins
titute
US
AU
SA
Mr S
. Sim
on (N
ew)
(New
)Pl
avsk
Dos
e Pl
avsk
Dos
e Ca
lculat
orCa
lculat
or77
Radia
tion &
Nuc
lear S
afety
Autho
rity (S
TUK)
Fin
lan
dFin
lan
dMr
M. A
mm
ann
(New
)(N
ew)
Ecos
ysEc
osys
-- 8787
66
Institu
tde R
adiop
rotec
tion e
t de
Sûre
té Nu
cléair
e(IR
SN)
Fra
nce
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Ms C
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fa(N
ew)
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AL55
Centr
al La
bora
tory f
or
Radio
logica
l Pro
tectio
nP
ola
nd
Po
lan
dMr
P. K
rajew
ski
(BIO
MASS
)(B
IOMA
SS)
CLRP
CLRP
44
Unive
rsity
of Ve
szpr
émDe
partm
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f Rad
ioche
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yH
un
gary
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ng
ary
Mr B
.Kan
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(BIO
MASS
)(B
IOMA
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UniV
esUn
iVes
33
Japa
n Atom
ic En
ergy
Re
sear
ch In
stitut
eJa
pan
Jap
an
Mr T
HOM
MA(B
IOMA
SS)
(BIO
MASS
)OS
CAAR
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AR22
Institu
te of
Phys
icsLit
hu
an
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an
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T. N
edve
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IOMA
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(BIO
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ETDO
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Org
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Cou
ntry
Cou
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icip
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Part
icip
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Nam
eN
ame
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odel
24
25
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
26
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
27
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
28
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04
29
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
2nd
Com
bine
d M
eetin
gs o
f the
IAE
A P
rogr
amm
e on
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
Env
iron
men
tal M
odel
ling
for
RA
diat
ion
RA
diat
ion
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
Safe
ty (E
MR
AS)
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r 20
0411
Nov
embe
r 20
04