ibm welcome and cognitive 20170322 v7

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Jim Spohrer (IBM)San Jose, CA

Wednesday March 22, 2017http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/ibm-welcome-and-cognitive-20170322-v7

IBM Welcome & Cognitive Future

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IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive

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MachineLearning

NaturalLanguageProcessing

HighPerformanceComputing

KnowledgeRepresentationand Reasoning

QuestionAnswering

UnstructuredInformation

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Brief History of AI

• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak• 1990 – AI Winter• 1997 – Deep Blue• 1997 – 2011 Real-World• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &• True North Brain Chip• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”

on IBM Bluemix

Definitions: AI vs IA

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AI is Artificial Intelligence, orintelligence in machines (smart machines)

IA is Intelligence Augmentation, orpeople thinking and working together with smart machines.

IA is what IBM calls “Cognitive Computing” andthe smart machines are called “Watson Solutions” or

more generally “Digital Cognitive Systems (Cogs)”

Cognition as a Service (CaaS): AI building blocks for IA solutions

Augmenting Workers



Startup Companies


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Cognitive Mediatorsfor all people in all roles


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Occupations = Many Tasks


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Watson Discovery Advisor

Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/


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User Models

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$5M Prize

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I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?

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IBM Cloud Bluemix:Watson APIs are growing…

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So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

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Societal Grand Challenges

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Solving these would mean we are smarter, but would they mean we are wiser?

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High School Senior: Anish Krishnan

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IBM in Silicon Valley:From Punch Cards….

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Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

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On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children, among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special train that carried them across the continent to establish new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.



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IBM in Silicon Valley:To Brain Chips….



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Cognitive Build

What types of digital cognitive systems?

• Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people)• Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do

something important in your personal or professional lives• Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone

votes• Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for

health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make better choices, find what you are looking for, move around more effectively, provide emotional support, provide IT support, learn about important public policy goals and make better choices

• Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator


Types

• Tool• Assistant• Collaborator• Coach• Mediator


Types: Progression of models and capabilities


Task & World Model/Planning & Decisions

Self Model/Capacity & Limits

User Model/Episodic Memory

Institutions Model/Trust & Social Acts

Tool + - - -

Assistant ++ + - -

Collaborator +++ ++ + -

Coach ++++ +++ ++ +

Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++

tool assistant collaborator coach mediator

Build: 10 million minutes of experience


Build: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation



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I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?


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Learning to program:My first program

Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945

Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972

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Fast Forward 2016:Consider this…

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Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016

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Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016

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IBM Image Tagging

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Courses• 2015

– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject

• 2025– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week

• 2035– “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves

• 2055– “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”– Most people have 100 digital workers.

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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Can better service help us be wiser?

Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach


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What exists in 2016?

360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000


Partnership for AI formed

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What might Reality 2.0 look like?


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How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?

What might it look like?

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Computing: Then, Now, Projected

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2035

2055

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

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By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators

Empathy & Teamwork

sectorregion/culture

discipline Dept

h

Breadth

STEM

Liberal Arts

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Reality 2.0 Service Platform:polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2)

do not interrupt people (P1,P2)

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Service Platform

CM2

P2

CM1

P1

100x

100x 100x



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Wise Service System:All entities’ in networkuse cognitive mediatorsto enhance value co-creation interactions

Cognitive Mediators:Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert)as co-creators of win-win value

Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions

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Two assertions

• Machines seem to be getting smarter fast.

– Agree/disagree?

• People do not seem to be getting wiser fast.

– Agree/disagree?

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Homo Sapiens means Wise Man: True/False?

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What is Industry 4.0?

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History of the idea: Mirror Worlds

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Why is this relevant?

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I am still very skeptical… but tell me more….

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Managers: Courage Required….

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Talent required, but…

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Industry 4.0

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CyberPhysical Systems?

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Industry 4.0

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Yesterday: Servitization

• Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”

Tomorrow: Servitization• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system

– Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything– Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’ performance

across their life-cycles– Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product performance,

efficiency, maintenance, etc.– Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with

financing/Internet of Service– Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability– Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability

• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for service innovation) for innovative university startups

Vision: MMaaRRSS

• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System– “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for

customer Y.”– Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows – Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)

• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)


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In Summary

“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”

Cognitive SystemsEntities

Service SystemsEntities With

CognitiveMediators

Add Rights &Responsibilities


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Explain external phenomena


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Explain internal phenomena


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Explainvalue co-creationphenomena


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Physics Chemistry Biology

Neuroscience Psychology ArtificialIntelligence

Engineering Management PublicPolicy

Education Design Humanities

Natural Systems

Cognitive Systems

Service Systems


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Sciences provide…• Frameworks for people to ask and answer

questions systematically• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”

Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -“To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the worldthat is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”

Proenneke:Alone in the Wilderness -To do a thorough testing, should each generationbe required to rapidly rebuildfrom scratch? A re-makers movement?

Some paths to becoming 64x smarter:Improving learning and performance

• 2x from Learning sciences (methods)– Better models of concepts – Better models of learners

• 2x from Learning technology (tools)– Guided learning paths– Elimination of “thrashing”

• 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps)– More you know, faster you go– Advanced organizers

• 2x from Lifelong learning (time)– Longer lives and longer careers– Keeps “learning-mode” activated

• 2x from Early learning (time)– Start earlier: Challenged-based approach– STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems)

• 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support)– Technology & Infrastructure Interactions– Organizations & Others Interactions

Next Generation:Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators

Many disciplinesMany sectors

Many regions/cultures(understanding & communications)

Deep in one sector

Deep in one region/culture

Deep in one discipline

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Future-Ready T-Shapes

© IBM UPWard 2016


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Brief History of AI

• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak• 1990 – AI Winter• 1997 – Deep Blue• 1997 – 2011 Real-World• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &• True North Brain Chip• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”

on IBM Bluemix


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Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear


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The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology


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Future of Skills

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T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent

© IBM UPWard 2016

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CSIG

Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap

and co-create wiser service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens

with cognitive mediatorsin the collaborative service economy


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Dedication: Doug EngelbartFather of the mouse and

augmentation theory

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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Can better service help us be wiser?

Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

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But this stuff is still really hard…

© IBM UPWard 2016

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government


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Cyber-Social-Learning-Systems

Jim Spohrer (IBM)August 29, 2016

http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/csls-20160821-v1


Today’s Talk: Cyber-Social-Learning-Systems• What is the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on CSLS?– Augmented Intelligence (IA) via digital cognitive systems– White House OSTP Response(s)

• Other topics to think about:– What are more of the implications of digital cognitive systems?

• Tool > Assistant > Collaborator > Coach > Mediator• Transformation > Experience > Data > Software > Hardware

– What does social intelligence require? Episodic Memory?– What is the impact of augmented reality on CSLS?– What are possible connections to service systems science

(SSME+DAPP)?– What type of adaptive innovator with growth mindset needed (T-

shapes)?


Augmented Intelligence

• Tool• Assistant•

Collaborator

• Coach• Mediator


White House OSTP Response(s)

• AI for public good• Social & economic implications• Education to harness AI• Research questions and gaps• Data sets and model sets• Multidisciplinary research• Role of incentives and prizes• Safety and control protocols• Legal and governance issues


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In Summary

“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”

Cognitive SystemsEntities

Service SystemsEntities With

CognitiveMediators

Add Rights &Responsibilities


Backup Slides

• Understanding Cognitive Systems


Understanding Cognitive SystemsJim Spohrer (IBM), August 25, 2016

CSIG (Cognitive Systems Institute Group) Speaker Serieshttp://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/

understanding_20160825_v3


Today’s Talk: Understanding Cognitive Systems• What is a cognitive system (entity)?– biological– technological– types of digital cognitive systems

• How to…– build them?– understand them?– work with them?

• Steps toward a next generation cognitive curriculum…


But first…. Cognitive Science, a young field

• Society– cognitivesciencesociety.org

• People– Founders: Roger Schank, Donald Norman,

Allan Collins– Others: David Rumelhart, Herbert Simon, Allen

Newell– Today: Patrick Langley, Wayne Gray, Kenneth

Forbus, Ashok Goel, Paul Maglio, etc.• Systems Conference

– cogsys.org– (JCS wishes this was part of HICSS)


Advances in Cognitive Systems - cogsys.org


Google Search: August 26, 2016


Today’s Talk: Understanding Cognitive Systems• What is a cognitive system (entity)?– biological– technological– types of digital cognitive systems

• How to…– build them?– understand them?– work with them?

• Steps toward a next generation cognitive curriculum…


What is a cognitive system (entity)?


What is a digital cognitive system (entity)?


What types of digital cognitive systems?

• Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people)– Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do something

important in your personal or professional lives– Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone

votes– Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for health

issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make better choices, find what you are looking for, move around more effectively, provide emotional support, provide IT support, learn about important public policy goals and make better choices

• Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator


Types

• Tool• Assistant•

Collaborator

• Coach• Mediator


Types: Progression of models and capabilities

Task & World Model/Planning & Decisions

Self Model/Capacity & Limits

User Model/Episodic Memory

Institutions Model/Trust & Social Acts

Tool + - - -Assistant ++ + - -Collaborator +++ ++ + -Coach ++++ +++ ++ +Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++


Build: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience


Understand them…


Work with…


Next generation cognitive curriculum


Backup slides

• Service systems - http://service-science.info/archives/3368


What is service science?

• IBM initiated effort to establish a multidisciplinary field to study service systems … with a focus on people-centered, IT-enabled service innovations for business and society– based on service-dominant logic– service = value co-creation– IT-enabled service architectures– service systems (socio-technical systems for

win-win value co-creation)• IBM helped establish

– computer science (1945-present)– service science (2005-present)

Service systems are dynamic configurations ofresources (people, technology, organizations,and information) interconnected byvalue propositions, internally and externally.

Examples:- macro: cities, states, nations- meso: hospitals, universities, businesses- micro: households, families, individuals

Reference:Spohrer J, Maglio P, Bailey J, Gruhl D (2007) Steps toward a science of service systems. IEEE Computer Society. 40(3):71-77(January).


What is service science?

• Now over 500 universities globally teach a more multidisciplinary approach to service innovation, including:– Service management and marketing– Service engineering and operations– Service design and arts– Service public policy and economics– Service computing and informatics

• SSME + DAPP = Service Science Management Engineering + Design Arts Public Policy– People, technology, organizations, information

interconnected by value propositions.

Reference:IfM & IBM (2008). Succeeding through serviceinnovation: A service perspective for education,research, business and government. University of Cambridge Institute for Manufacturing, Cambridge, UK. 2008.


How to get involved?

• Weekly speaker series– Service innovation– Service education & research– Smart service/cognitive systems

• Discovery summits & book series• Opportunities

– Institutional memberships– Leadership & ambassadors– Volunteer opportunities– Awards & sponsored conferences

ISSIP.org is a non-profit societyInternational Society of Service Innovation Professionals

Membership:Over 1000 professionals and students from 40+ countries, 50+ companies and 50+ universities.


How to get involved?

• Journals (INFORMS, etc.)

• Conferences (HICSS, etc.)

• Courses (MIT, etc.)• Funding (NSF, etc.)• Society (ISSIP, etc.)


What are the hot topics?

• Smart Service Systems: Intelligence Augmentation– AI + AR UX (Artificial Intelligence + Augmented Reality User

Experience)– Smartphones (mobile, social, secure, etc.)

• Collaborative Economy: Servitization– From assets to co-creation (e.g., Uber, AirBnB, etc.)– From product to capability/outcome-as-a-service– Manufacturing as a local recycling service

• Digital Transformation: Trust and Identity– Blockchain: Don Tapscott’s TED Talk & book– Big Data: Service Analytics & HAT (Hub of All Things)


Backups

• T-shaped people

Some paths to becoming 64x smarter:Improving learning and performance

• 2x from Learning sciences (methods)– Better models of concepts – Better models of learners

• 2x from Learning technology (tools)– Guided learning paths– Elimination of “thrashing”

• 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps)– More you know, faster you go– Advanced organizers

• 2x from Lifelong learning (time)– Longer lives and longer careers– Keeps “learning-mode” activated

• 2x from Early learning (time)– Start earlier: Challenged-based approach– STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems)

• 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support)– Technology & Infrastructure Interactions– Organizations & Others Interactions

Next Generation:Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators

Many disciplinesMany sectors

Many regions/cultures(understanding & communications)

Deep in one sector

Deep in one region/culture

Deep in one discipline


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Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear

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My Quest

• What is the best bot that anyone can easily install on their smartphone and laptop today?

© IBM UPWard 2016