idaho economic outlook pacific northwest regional economic conference may 15, 2008 presented by...

Idaho Economic OutlookIdaho Economic Outlook

Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Pacific Northwest Regional Economic ConferenceConference

May 15, 2008May 15, 2008

Presented ByPresented By

Michael FergusonMichael FergusonIdaho Division of Financial ManagementIdaho Division of Financial Management

www.idaho.gov/dfmwww.idaho.gov/dfm

2004 Total Gross Domestic Product by State by State (Percent Change from Year Ago)

Source: St. Louis FRB, GeoFred

Idaho Employment Growth Rate2004


2.1%

4.3%

4.5%

1.0%

3.7%

2.7%

8.2%

-5.7%

2.7%

8.5%

-0.1%

1.8%

2.1%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

S&L Govt

Leisure & Hospitality

Education & Health

Professional & Business

Trans., Warehouse, Util.

Information

Finance

Trade

Construction

Food Processing

Computer & Electronics

Logging & Wood Products

Total Nonfarm

Source: April 2008 Idaho Economic Forecast



3.2%

4.2%

5.1%

1.8%

6.1%

4.0%

11.4%

-1.9%

3.5%

13.3%

-0.6%

0.7%

4.6%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

S&L Govt


Education & Health



Information

Finance

Trade

Construction

Food Processing



Total Nonfarm




4.0%

3.1%

5.8%

4.9%

-4.3%

7.1%

4.4%

-0.1%

4.3%

15.4%

3.0%

1.6%

3.7%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

S&L Govt


Education & Health



Information

Finance

Trade

Construction

Food Processing



Total Nonfarm




6.1%

5.0%

2.2%

3.3%

2.6%

2.4%

2.7%

1.5%

-4.6%

1.9%

-2.5%

0.7%

3.7%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

S&L Govt


Education & Health



Information

Finance

Trade

Construction

Food Processing



Total Nonfarm


656

9.6

16.2

14.9

53.1

111

32.5

10.9

20.9

73.6

83.2

63.3

104

Level (k)



3.0%

2.6%

2.8%

-0.3%

0.5%

0.4%

0.7%

-1.3%

-7.9%

-6.3%

-9.8%

1.7%

1.8%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

S&L Govt


Education & Health



Information

Finance

Trade

Construction

Food Processing



Total Nonfarm




2.7%

3.2%

4.2%

0.7%

2.3%

1.9%

1.5%

0.8%

-6.6%

-3.2%

-7.1%

-0.1%

3.3%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

S&L Govt


Education & Health



Information

Finance

Trade

Construction

Food Processing



Total Nonfarm




3.2%

3.5%

4.0%

0.7%

2.7%

1.9%

2.4%

1.7%

8.5%

-1.7%

-2.1%

0.2%

3.6%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

S&L Govt


Education & Health



Information

Finance

Trade

Construction

Food Processing



Total Nonfarm


Unemployment Rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10

Idaho U.S.

Source: Idaho Dept of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

November 2007

Source: Philadelphia FRB

December 2007


January 2008


February 2008


March 2008


Idaho Coincident IndexOne-Month Change

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%


Idaho Coincident IndexThree-Month Change

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%


Recent Events & AnnouncementsRecent Events & Announcements

The Good….The Good…. Micron Selects Boise for 300mm ProcessMicron Selects Boise for 300mm Process Areva Selects Idaho Falls for Uranium EnrichmentAreva Selects Idaho Falls for Uranium Enrichment Hoku Scientific Selects Pocatello for Polysilicon PlantHoku Scientific Selects Pocatello for Polysilicon Plant Nordic Windpower Selects Pocatello for Turbine PlantNordic Windpower Selects Pocatello for Turbine Plant

The Not So Good….The Not So Good…. Tamarack Resort Bankrupcy & ForeclosureTamarack Resort Bankrupcy & Foreclosure AMI Semi Sold to ON Semiconductor, Layoffs AnnouncedAMI Semi Sold to ON Semiconductor, Layoffs Announced HP – Will “Rebalance” Imaging & Printing DivisionHP – Will “Rebalance” Imaging & Printing Division St Alphonsus Regional Medical Center Layoffs, EtcSt Alphonsus Regional Medical Center Layoffs, Etc

General Observations…General Observations… Weak DollarWeak Dollar

Largely positive for Idaho producersLargely positive for Idaho producers Canadians Canadians ♥ Coeur d’Alene♥ Coeur d’Alene

High Energy PricesHigh Energy Prices Broadly adverse – farmers, truckers, drivers, government, et al… (is anyone not impacted?)Broadly adverse – farmers, truckers, drivers, government, et al… (is anyone not impacted?) Some positives for related manufacturing (uranium reprocessing, wind turbines, etc)Some positives for related manufacturing (uranium reprocessing, wind turbines, etc)

High Commodity PricesHigh Commodity Prices Farmers benefit (but input inflation worrisome)Farmers benefit (but input inflation worrisome) Mining activity up (north, central, southeast)Mining activity up (north, central, southeast)

House Price & Mortgage CrisisHouse Price & Mortgage Crisis Idaho exposed, but to lesser degree (smaller price run up, fewer foreclosures)Idaho exposed, but to lesser degree (smaller price run up, fewer foreclosures) Nonresidential strength helping offset residential hitsNonresidential strength helping offset residential hits Broader impacts felt nonetheless, e.g. TamarackBroader impacts felt nonetheless, e.g. Tamarack

Snowpack At/Above NormalSnowpack At/Above Normal Farmers relieved (but deeper problems will persist)Farmers relieved (but deeper problems will persist) Big Runoff = Great Boating Season (but could also fuel big fire season)Big Runoff = Great Boating Season (but could also fuel big fire season)

Thank You!For more information, visit:

http://dfm.idaho.gov/Publications/Econ_Publications.html

idaho economic outlook pacific northwest regional economic conference may 15, 2008 presented by...

Documents

idaho economic forecast

geofred slide

philadelphia frb slide

idaho falls

idaho employment growth

unemployment rate source

idaho dept of labor

louis frb