Identification of skills needs in EuropeCEDEFOP – Thessaloniki – 22-23 May 2003

Linking quantitative and qualitative prospects for “low-skilled” jobs

 

Géry Coomans Research Director of ISMEA

(Institut des Sciences Mathématiques et Economiques Appliquées – Paris)

Change (%) in the size of the labour force per educational level(*)2000-2010-2020 (Age group 25-64)

EU15Low Medium High Total

2000-2010 -15 10 12 32010-2020 -17 3 4 -28 Accession countries (Cyprus and Malta excluded)

Low Medium High Total2000-2010 -27 6 9 22010-2020 -25 -10 -7 -11

Assumptions : constant 2000 activity rates per gender, 10-year age groups

and educational level (Low, Medium, High).

Source of data : 2000 activity rates as in Eurostat LFS 2000.

Demographic Projections : for EU15, Eurostat 2000 Baseline scenario;

for accession countries : UNO, WPP 2000 Rev., Medium Variant.

Quoted from G.Coomans, Strategic Labour Yearbook, 2003.

2,7 3,0

2,2

2,8

0,5

1,61,3 1,2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Low Medium High Total

2001-2010 2001-2020

Labour supply per educational level …Potential growth of employment per educational level

EU15 – 2001-2010-2020 (% p.a.)

Based on EU15 highest national employment rates per gender, 10-year age group and educational level as in 2001(Nordic Star)

1999-2001

Potential annual growth of employment (2000-2020) National averages and regional extremesEGP20T Total People with LOW educational attainment

EGP20M People with MEDIUM educational attainment EGP20H People with HIGH educational attainment

1,11,2

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5S

IE

EC

ZD

KL

VS

EP

TN

LH

U FI

AT

LT

DE

UK

SK IT ES

FR

BE

PL

LU

GR IE CY

EU

15

Ne

w

1,8

0,5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

SI

SE

UK FI

GR PT

DK

NL

ES

FR IE CY

BE

AT IT LV LU

EE

CZ

DE

HU

PL

LT SK

EU

15N

ew

1,21,6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

EE SI

CZ

SE

DK

HU

LV NL FI

AT

DE

UK

SK

FR

PL

LT LU

BE IE IT ES

CY

GR PT

EU

15N

ew

0,5

1,3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

EE

LV CZ

HU LT DE

AT SI

IT DK

SK

NL FI

UK

PL

SE

BE

PT

LU

GR

ES

FR

CY IE

EU

15N

ew

1.2%

1.3%1.6%

0.5%

People with LOW educational attainment

1,8

0,5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

SI

SE

UK FI

GR PT

DK

NL

ES

FR IE CY

BE

AT IT LV LU

EE

CZ

DE

HU PL

LT SK

EU

15N

ew

Potential annual growth of employment 2000-2020

EU15 average : +0,5 %New MSs average : +1.8 %

LOW … per age group

EU15 average : -1.4% EU15 average : +0.7%

Estimates of future staff in ISCO-line 825

(Index 100 = year 2001) Male + Female

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Constant(2001) inflow Constant share inflow

Constant share inflow + trend

Age pyramid 1996-2001

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

1996 2001

0,00,20,40,60,81,01,21,41,61,82,0

20_2

4

25_2

9

30_3

4

35_3

9

40_4

4

45_4

9

50_5

4

55_5

9

60_6

4

Male + Female

Country FR France

Isco code 825Isco line Printing-, binding- and  paper-products

1996-2001

One example

Conclusions

Declining workforce – Ageing workforceJob mobility of low-skilled : high but due to decrease

Behaviours leading to heavy local impact of demographic shift :• stop-and-go recruiting• low professionalisation

Future trends : changing requirements, job assesment,competence recognition

Global frame : lifelong develoment of competences as a macro-need, not the least for low-skilled

Progressive internalisation within companies of LLLMulti-level bottlenecks (territorial/regional, SMEs, …)

Technical note :

Data for the past extracted from Eurostat Labour Force Survey

Demographic projections at national level :

EU15 : Eurostat 2000 Demographic Projections (Baseline Scenario)

Others : UN World Population prospects, 2000 Revision(Medium Variant)

At regional level : Estimates fromG. Coomans, Atlas of Prospectective Labour Supply.

All projections per educational level : Estimates fromG. Coomans, Atlas of Prospectective Labour Supply