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IGA 224: Decision Making in Recent Crises: Understanding Decision-Making in Iraq and Beyond and the Lessons for
Today’s Challenges in the Middle East
Syllabus as of 22 December 2016 Professor Meghan L. O’Sullivan
Harvard University Kennedy School Spring 2017
INDEX: SECTION 1: Contact Information (page 1) SECTION 2: Course Description (page 2) SECTION 3: Course Policies, Assignments & Grading (page 4) SECTION 4: Class Schedule (page 7) SECTION 5: Required Texts & Reading List (page 11)
SECTION 1: Contact Information
Faculty:
Professor Meghan L. O’Sullivan
Faculty Office: Littauer 329
Faculty Telephone:
(617) 496-4308
Faculty Email: [email protected]
Faculty Assistant: Nikoleta (Nika) Sremac
FA Office: Belfer 222
FA Telephone: (617) 496-8238
FA Email: [email protected]
Office Hours: Tuesdays from 2:15-4:00pm Please sign up on sheet posted on door of L329; new sheet posted every Tuesday at 4:45pm
Course Assistants:
Katie Rose, [email protected] Hyung-kyung Kim, [email protected]
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Class Times:
Mon & Wed from 11:45am-1 PM in L 230 Gundle Family Classroom ***Please note that due the schedule of guests, some classes are held at alternative times. Unless specified, these classes are considered to be part of the course, with attendance required unless discussed with Professor O’Sullivan.
Discussion Sessions:
Discussion sessions will be scheduled at varying times throughout the semester to carry on informal discussion with a smaller group.
Assignment submissions:
Upload files via Canvas Assignments section
SECTION 2: Course Description Objectives: There are three primary objectives to this course. First, the course will provide students with key insights into some of America’s toughest foreign policy challenges in the post-cold war era. The course, while touching on the 1980s and 1990s, will focus primarily on U.S. and international engagement in the broader Middle East over the last decade. It will also discuss current policy and strategy, and consider options available for the future. Second, the course will offer students a theoretical framework for assessing how and why certain foreign policy decisions are made and encourage students to apply this framework in evaluating key recent decisions. In so doing, the course will give students insight – through positive and negative examples – of how policy makers can make the best decisions in the face of imperfect information and various constraints. Third, the course will enable students to extract lessons from America’s recent experience in Iraq and beyond that are relevant to future military or state-building efforts by the United States or other powers. Students will emerge from the course equipped with analytical tools to understand and evaluate foreign policy decision making more generally and state-building in particular. In the last part of the semester, the class will discuss how lessons from recent decisions apply to the current challenges of ending conflict and rebuilding societies in the Arab world, and Syria, Libya, and Yemen in particular. The course is designed to help prepare students for any position – in government, NGOs, or international institutions – in which they make policy decisions in complex environments.
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Topics: After a brief introduction to conflict in the contemporary Middle East, the course begins by reviewing theories and constructs for understanding decision making in foreign policy. Early on, the course will develop a framework for explaining and evaluating decision making. This framework will highlight the importance of how the problem at hand is formulated; what entities have equities in the outcome; how stakes are assessed; what is the strategic context of the time; what information gaps exist at the time of decision; who was consulted in the process of the decision; whether contingencies were considered; and what other scenarios were weighed. The course then proceeds to examine a series of important decisions made by the United States and its allies primarily since 9/11. Students will be encouraged to evaluate both the process and the outcome of the decision. They will be asked whether there was a better decision that might have been made at the time – and whether, with the benefit of hindsight and subsequent information, a superior decision was conceivable. There is a heavy focus on decisions made in Iraq from 2003-2011, for several important reasons. First, enough time has elapsed so that sufficient information is available for us to gain insights into the dynamics of particular decisions that are often kept confidential. Second, for many of the decisions selected, the instructor was personally involved, allowing her to provide insights into the process not otherwise available. Finally, many of the decisions contemplated and made in Iraq relate to the very topics which are being considered in the context of other Arab countries; a better understanding of how and why decisions and events unfolded in Iraq from 2003-2011 will prove useful in tackling today’s challenges. Several formats will be used to examine these decisions, including decision-making reenactments, lectures and class discussions, and guest speakers who participated in the decision making process. The final section of the course involves a group project which seeks to both shed light on the dynamics of different processes to resolve on-going conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen – and to distill lessons from Iraq and beyond to the particular challenges of these three countries. Components of Course:
• Introduction: On the Middle East and on theoretical and conceptual material on decision making and state-building.
• Reenactments/Simulations: The course will explore three decisions through
reenactments/simulations, offering students the chance to experience the challenges of being a senior policy maker. The reenactments/simulations are paired with lectures, exploring a historical case in depth. In the two reenactments, students will break out into small groups, where they will assume the roles of different policy makers and debate an importance historical decision. Before each reenactment, students will receive a “read ahead” to help them get a feel for the decision being discussed, what was and was not known when the decision was made, and any reenactment-specific instructions. Each
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group will submit a final options memo based on the outcome of its reenactment/simulation, which will be the basis for a class discussion comparing the experiences of each group in the following lecture.
• Lectures and Class Discussions: Other key decisions will be explored through lectures,
class discussions, and guest speakers with personal experience either in decisions discussed in class or in related areas. Lectures and discussions will explore issues such as whether the decision was framed appropriately, whether other information was necessary or desirable, whether history provided us with relevant cases, what other options were or might have been considered, how the outcome compared to the intended goals, and how to evaluate counterfactuals. In light of all these factors, the class will try to come to a key judgment about the soundness of the decision and whether a better course of action existed at the time.
• Guest Speakers. A range of former senior officials will join us in various classes to lend their expertise on particular decisions and on the decision making process as a whole.
• Informal Discussion Groups: On various occasions throughout the semester, we will
hold informal discussion groups, participation in which is voluntary. The purpose of the discussion groups is to broaden discussion beyond what is possible in class and to expand the discussion of contemporary events as they may relate to what is being discussed in class.
SECTION 3: Course Policies, Assignments, and Grading IGA 224 is a graduate level course appropriate for those with an interest in decision making in foreign policy. There are no prerequisites for the course. The focus of the readings, lectures, class conversations and projects will be more political and strategic than technical in nature. Students must be able to attend all classes; absence from more than one class may be reflected in a student’s grade. They should expect to arrive on time and be prepared to actively participate in class. No laptops will be permitted in the classroom except for those of students who are making presentations. Cell phone use is also not allowed during class. Students will be held to the highest standards of academic honesty and integrity.
Activity/Assignment Percentage of Grade
Date due
Class Participation and Decision Making
Reenactments: The class participation and reenactment grade involves several components:
20%
NA
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• Being part of the general class conversation; Students should be prepared to discuss the readings and to be cold-called.
• Group memos submitted after each reenactment. • Quality of each small group’s contributions during in-
class simulation meetings and the final briefing/memo.
• Quality of each individual student’s participation in the reenactments and group project, both inside and outside of class.
Two Short Papers: Each student will write two short
papers throughout the course, each pertaining to a historical decision explored in class. Students can select any of the historical decisions discussed in class to write about. • You will note in pages 7-10 the topics you can
write a paper on are indicated by: • Possible Paper Option
• Students cannot write a paper and a TAP for the same day.
• Papers should be 5 pages in length (more will not be read, less is not recommended), double-spaced, 12pt times new roman font, with one-inch margins
• Both papers are due by 9pm the evening before the day the particular decision will be discussed in class. In the two cases where simulations occur, papers on that decision must be submitted at 9pm the evening before the simulation.
Please name your files according to the convention: “Last Name, First Name – Short Paper N” where N is the option number; Please be sure to include your name and the assignment name/number in the body of your file as well.
50%
(25% each)
Various
days throughout
the semester
One of the six “Take a Position” propositions
delineated in the class schedule below. Several propositions are presented throughout the semester. Students can choose which ones they will address. Students will be asked to argue for or against the
10%
Various
days throughout
the semester
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proposition by submitting a view of no more than 350 words 9pm the evening before the day the topic will be discussed in class. • Students cannot write a paper and a TAP for the
same day. Please name your files according to the convention: “Last Name, First Name – Take a Position N” where N is the option number; Please be sure to include your name and the assignment name/number in the body of your file as well.
Group Project. This year, students will have three options for fulfilling the group project component of this class. They will work in teams of six to do meet one of three objectives. The class will be divided evenly among teams that are:
• Constructing a simulation around a decision the group anticipates could arise related to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. The teaching team will select one of the simulations to be used in class toward the end of the term. All groups will be involved in the class discussion following the simulation;
• Devising a new plan to be presented to the president of the United States, Russia, Iran, or Turkey on how to advance that country’s interest through a new strategy vis-à-vis Syria. Teams will present the elements of their ideas in class toward the end of term; or
• Creating a new strategy to be presented to a senior leader at the United Nations, the European Union (or a particular European state), or the United States on how to advance that entity’s interest through a new approach toward Libya. Teams will present the elements of their ideas in class toward the end of term.
20%
April 5
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SECTION 4: Class Schedule
Please note that the schedule below may change in small respects – in terms of the sequence and possibly timing of certain classes – to accommodate guest speakers or exciting opportunities as they arise. In rare instances, we might drop a topic from the syllabus in order to accommodate an extraordinary speaker. We will do our best to give you plenty of advance notice.
Class Date Topic
UNIT 1: INTRODUCTION
1 Friday
January 20 11:45am – 1:00pm
Shopping Day: Introduction and Overview of Course and Requirements Please note time and room: L140
2 Monday January 23
Introduction to Conflict in the Middle East Today
3 Wednesday January 25
Theories and Realities of Decision Making
4 Monday January 30
Decision Making in the U.S. Government
UNIT 2: CASE STUDIES OF DECISIONS
5
Wednesday February 1
Decision to Fund the Mujahedin in the 1980s and Supply Them with Stinger Missiles (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option • OR TAP 1 due the night before class by 9pm: “The
decision to provide the Afghan mujahedin with Stinger missiles in the 1980s offers direct lessons for those lending international support to local forces in Syria, Libya, or Yemen today.”
6
Monday February 6
Gulf War I: Decision to Go to War and to Stop from Going to Baghdad
• Possible Paper Option
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• OR TAP 2 due the night before class by 9pm: “The 1991 war against Iraq was about oil.”
7
Wednesday February 8
RE-ENACTMENT: Decision to Go to War in 2003
• Possible Paper Option
8 Monday
February 13
Decision to Go to War in 2003 (Lecture and Class Discussion)
9
Wednesday February 15
Decision to Have an Extended Occupation (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option • OR TAP 3 due the night before class by 9pm: “A formal
and legal occupation of Iraq was justified by – even required by – the circumstances.”
Monday February 20
Presidents’ Day Holiday
10
Wednesday February 22
Decision to Disband the Army and Institute De-Ba'athification (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option • OR TAP 4 due the night before class by 9pm: “Any
Syrian peace agreement needs to heed the lessons from Iraq which argues against dismantling state institutions.”
11
Monday February 27
Decisions to Make Iraq a Federal Country (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option
12 Wednesday
March 1
RE-ENACTMENT: Decision to Change Strategies and Authorize the Surge
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13
Monday March 6
Decision to Authorize the Surge (Lecture and Class Discussion)
14 Wednesday March 8
Guest Speaker TBA
March 11-19 SPRING BREAK
15
Monday
March 20
Decision to Remove all U.S. Forces from Iraq in 2011 (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• TAP 5 due the night before class by 9pm: “Had the United States kept a residual force in Iraq after 2011, ISIS would not have emerged.”
16 Wednesday March 22
Guest Speaker TBA
17 Monday
March 27
NO CLASS TODAY – MAKE UP CLASS SCHEDULED FOR ______; students can use class time to work on group projects
18
Wednesday March 29
NO CLASS TODAY – MAKE UP CLASS SCHEDULED FOR ______; students can use class time to work on group projects
19
Monday April 3
Decision to Complete a Nuclear Deal with Iran and the P5+1 (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option
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20
Wednesday April 5
Decision Not to Intervene in Syria in 2012 OR Decision to Intervene in Libya in 2011 (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option
21
Monday April 10
Decision to Support President Erdogan in Turkey in Wake of the Coup (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option
UNIT 3: APPLYING LESSONS TO FUTURE CHALLENGES
22 Wednesday
April 12
Recommendations to a New Administration: What to do about Libya (Presentations of Strategies Developed in Group Projects)
23 Monday April 17
Simulation: The Israel-Palestinian Conflict (One Group Project Simulation Selected)
24 Wednesday
April 19
The Israel-Palestinian Conflict (De-Brief and Class Discussion)
25 Monday April 24
Recommendations to a New Administration: What to do about Syria (Presentations of Strategies Developed in Group Projects)
UNIT 4: CONCLUSION 26
Wednesday April 26
Lessons Learned and Wrap Up
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SECTION 5: Required Texts and Reading List* * Readings may be adapted in response to current events in the Middle East. Required Texts: We will make sure copies are on reserve in the HKS Library for those who would prefer not to purchase all of these books. Ali A. Allawi. The Occupation of Iraq: Winning the War, Losing the Peace, Yale University Press, 2007. Paul Bremer. My Year in Iraq: The Struggle to Build a Future of Hope, Simon & Schuster, 2006. Richard N. Haass. War of Necessity/War of Choice, Simon & Schuster, 2009. Optional Recommended Texts: Condoleeza Rice, No Higher Honor: A Memoir of My Years in Washington, Random House, 2011. Donald Rumsfeld, Known and Unknown: A Memoir, Sentinel, 2011. Bob Woodward, The War Within: A Secret History of the White House 2006-2008, Simon & Schuster, 2008. Dick Cheney, In My Time, Threshold Editions, 2012. Bob Woodward, The Commanders, Pocket Star Books, 1991. Peter Baker, Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House, 2014. Douglas J. Feith, War and Decision: Inside the Pentagon at the Dawn of the War on Terrorism, 2009. Leon Panetta and Jim Newton, Worthy Fights: A Memoir of Leadership in War and Peace, Penguin Press, 2014. Steve Coll, Ghost Wars, Penguin Press, New York, 2004. Barnett Rubin, The Fragmentation of Afghanistan, Yale University Press: New Haven, 2002
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UNIT 1: INTRODUCTION
Class 1: January 20 11:45am-1:00pm L140 Topic: Shopping Day: Introduction and Overview of Course and Requirements
• Please read over syllabus carefully.
Class 2: Monday January 23 Topic: Introduction to Conflict in the Middle East Today
Required:
• (35 Pages) David Sorenson, An Introduction to the Modern Middle East: History,
Religion, Political Economy, Politics, Westview Press, 2014, Chapter One.(17 Pages) Kenneth M. Pollack, “U.S. policy toward a turbulent Middle East”, United States Senate Committee on Armed Services, Testimony, 24 March 2015. http://www.brookings.edu/research/testimony/2015/03/24-us-policy-middle-east-pollack
• (8 pages) Steve Simon and Jonathan Stevenson, “The End of Pax Americana: Why
Washington’s Middle East Pullback Makes Sense,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2015: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/end-pax-americana
• (8 pages) Daniel Benjamin, “Beyond Counterterrorism: Washington Needs a Real Middle
East Policy,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2015 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-10-20/beyond-counterterrorism
Optional:
• Peter Harling and Alex Simon, “The West in the Arab World, Between Ennui and
Ecstasy,” The Arabist, December 16, 2015. http://arabist.net/blog/2015/12/16/the-west-in-the-arab-world-between-ennui-and-ecstasy
• Marc Lynch, “Obama and the Middle East: Rightsizing the U.S. Role,” Foreign Affairs,
September/October 2015. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/obama-and-middle-east
• Henry A. Kissinger, “A Path Out of the Middle East Collapse,” The Wall Street Journal,
October 16, 2015. http://www.wsj.com/article_email/a-path-out-of-the-middle-east-collapse-1445037513-lMyQjAxMTI1MjE2NzIxMDcwWj
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Class 3: Wednesday January 25 Topic: Theories and Realities of Decision Making
Required:
• (10 pages) Richard N. Haass, “Why Foreign Policy (When it Comes to Judgment, at Least) is Not Pornography,” in Stanley Renschon and Deborah Larson, Good Judgment in Foreign Policy: Theory and Application, 2003, pp. 247-257.
• Eugene Wittkopt, Christopher M. Jones, Jr., and Charles W. Kegley, American Foreign
Policy: Pattern and Process, 5th Edition, 2008, Chapters 10 and 11.
• (15 pages) Alexander George, Presidential Decision-making in Foreign Policy, Chapter 6 on “Some Possible (and Possibly Dangerous) Malfunctions of the Advisory Process,” 1980, pp. 121-136.
• (6 pages) Goldman, Ralph M., ‘Review: Memoirs: Case Materials for Studying Political Behavior?’ Polity, Vol. 7, No. 4 (Summer, 1975), http://www.jstor.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/stable/pdf/3234196.pdf?acceptTC=true Section II, pg. 7 -12
Class 4: Monday January 30 Topic: Decision Making in the U.S. Government
Required:
• WATCH: The Council on Foreign Relations, Introduction to the National Security Council, July 27, 2015. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xt9_l4Im7CE&list=PL4THPMjF2nCKXl5tmwDl9yfQby70UeKsm&index=7
• WATCH: The Council on Foreign Relations, The National Security Council Interagency
Process, August 3, 2015. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBaNiup-qFY&list=PL4THPMjF2nCKXl5tmwDl9yfQby70UeKsm&index=13
• WATCH: The Council on Foreign Relations, The Role of the National Security Advisor,
August 5, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oJN9SA2XIY&list=PL4THPMjF2nCKXl5tmwDl9yfQby70UeKsm&index=16
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• (11 pages) Ivo H. Daalder and I. M. Destler, In the Shadow of the Oval Office: Profiles of the National Security Advisers and the Presidents They Served--From JFK to George W. Bush Paperback, 2011, Chapter One, pp. 1-11.
• (3 pages) Richard Clarke, “Presidential Policy Initiative/Review” Declassified NSC
Memo, 25 January 2001, http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB147/clarke%20memo.pdf
• (21 pages) Margaret G. Hermann and Thomas Preston, “Presidents, Advisers, and
Foreign Policy: The Effect of Leadership Style on Executive Arrangements,” Political Psychology, Vol. 15, No. 1, Special Issue (March 1994), pp. 75-96.
• (15 pages) Janine Davidson, “Civil-Military Friction and Presidential Decision Making:
Explaining the Broken Dialogue,” Presidential Studies Quarterly, March 2013, pp. 129-144. http://www.cfr.org/content/member/PSQ2013_Broken_Dialogue_Davidson.pdf
Optional:
• Text of the National Security Act of 1947: http://global.oup.com/us/companion.websites/9780195385168/resources/chapter10/nsa/nsa.pdf
• Alan G. Whittaker, Frederick C. Smith and Elizabeth McKune, The National Security
Policy Process: The National Security Council and Interagency System, August 15, 2011. http://www.virginia.edu/cnsl/pdf/national-security-policy-process-2011.pdf
UNIT 2: CASE STUDIES OF DECISIONS
Class 5: Wednesday February 1 Topic: Decision to Fund the Mujahedin in the 1980s and Supply Them with Stinger Missiles (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option OR TAP • TAP 1 due 9pm the evening BEFORE class: “The decision to provide the Afghan
mujahedin with Stinger missiles in the 1980s offers direct lessons for those lending international support to local forces in Syria, Libya, or Yemen today.”
Required:
• (15 pages) Seth G. Jones. In the Graveyard of Empires: America’s War in Afghanistan,
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Norton, W. W. & Company, Inc.; 2009: pp. 23-37.
• (64 pages) Kirsten Lundberg, “The Politics of Covert Action: The U.S., the Mujahideen, and the Stinger Missile,” HKS Case #C.15.99.1546.0, 1999, pp. 1 – 64 (esp. 23 – 61).
• (28 pages) Steve Coll. Ghost Wars, Penguin Press, New York, 2004; pp. 89-93, 100-106,
125-137, 147-153. Optional:
• (14 pages) Alan Kuperman, “The Stinger Missile and U.S. Intervention in Afghanistan,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 114, No. 2, 1999, pp. 222 – 235.
• (19 pages) Coll, Ghost Wars, 42-46, 53-60, 63-68.
• (96 pages) Barnett Rubin, The Fragmentation of Afghanistan, Yale University Press:
New Haven, 2002, pp. 184-280.
• (40 pages) A.Z. Hilali, US-Pakistan Relationship: Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, Ashgate Publishing, 2005, pp. 111-127, 146-170.
• (17 pages) Craig Karp, “War in Afghanistan,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 64, No. 5, Summer
1986, pp. 1026-1047. http://web.ebscohost.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/ehost/detail?vid=3&hid=110&sid=9dbbe333-7c03-428d-938f-29365474c2c1%40sessionmgr104&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRl#db=aph&AN=8600000196
Class 6: Monday February 6 Topic: Gulf War I: Decision to Go to War and to Stop from Going to Baghdad (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option OR TAP • TAP 2 Due 9pm the evening BEFORE class: “The 1991 war against Iraq was
about oil.” Required:
• (1 page) Maureen Dowd, “The Longest Week: How President Decided to Draw the Line,” New York Times, 9 August 1990. http://www.nytimes.com/1990/08/09/world/confrontation-gulf-longest-week-president-decided-draw-line.html
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• (2 pages) Thomas Friedman and Patrick Tyler, “From the First, U.S. Resolve to Fight,”
New York Times, 3 March 1991, http://www.nytimes.com/1991/03/03/world/after-war-reconstruction-path-war-bush-s-crucial-decisions-special-report-first.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/People/T/Tyler,%20Patrick%20E
• (55 pages) Richard Haass, War of Necessity/War of Choice, 2009, pp. 60-115.
• (6 pages) David Halberstam, War in a Time of Peace, Scribner Books, 2001, pp. 69-75.
Optional:
• (37 pages) Richard Haass, War of Necessity/War of Choice, 2009, pp. 116-153.
• (28 pages) Dick Cheney, In My Time, Chapter 6 – Desert Shield, pages 181-209.
• (16 pages) George H.W. Bush and Brent Scowcroft, “The Transition from the Cold War” in Karl Inderfurth and Loch Johnson, Fateful Decisions: Inside the National Security Council, Oxford University Press, 2004, pp. 236-252.
• (26 pages) Dennis Ross, Statecraft: How to Restore America's Standing in the World,
Chapter 4, pp. 73-99.
• Bob Woodward, The Commanders, Pocket Star Books, 1991.
• Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor, The General's War: The Inside Story of the Conflict in the Gulf, Little Brown, 1995.
Class 7 and 8: Wednesday February 8 and Monday February 13 READINGS FOR BOTH DAYS BELOW
Topic: Decision to Go to War in 2003 (Re-enactment, Lecture and Class Discussion) • Possible Paper Option – due 9pm the night before Feb 8
All are Required to Read/Watch the Below:
• WATCH: Council on Foreign Relations, How to Run a Meeting, January 13, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USq4nDQ9a1M&index=39&list=PL4THPMjF2nCKXl5tmwDl9yfQby70UeKsm
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• WATCH: PBS Frontline, Bush’s War: Part One, March 2008. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/bushswar/
• (1 page) Timeline: http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/30/world/meast/iraq-weapons-inspections-fast-facts/
• (9 pages) George W. Bush, Decision Points, pp. 228-230; 236- 242.
• (16 pages) Kenneth M. Pollack, “Next Stop Baghdad?” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2002, http://web.ebscohost.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/ehost/detail?vid=3&hid=110&sid=9dbbe333-7c03-428d-938f-29365474c2c1%40sessionmgr104&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRl#db=aph&AN=6249369
• (7 pages) National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq's Continuing Program for Weapons of
Mass Destruction, October 2002.http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Iraq_NIE_Excerpts_2003.pdf
• (2 pages) Brent Scowcroft, “Don't Attack Saddam,” Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2002. http://www.wagingpeace.org/dont-attack-saddam/
• Douglas J. Feith, War and Decision, U.S. government documents in appendices 3-5. Read the excerpt from the person you have been assigned to play in the re-enactment (meaning you don’t need to read all of the below, just one!):
• (36 pages) Dick Cheney, “Liberating Iraq” in In My Time, pp. 364-401.
• (38 pages) George Tenet, At the Center of the Storm, pp. 301-339.
• (43 pages) FOR PLAYERS OF SECRETARY RUMSFELD AND CHAIRMAN OF JOINT CHIEFS MYERS: Donald Rumsfeld, Known and Unknown: A Memoir, 2011, pp. 416-459.
• (39 pages) Condoleeza Rice, No Higher Honor: A Memoir of My Years in Washington,
pp. 166-205.
• (40ish pages) FOR PLAYERS OF SECRETARY POWELL: Colin Powell, It Worked for Me: In Life and Leadership, Chapter 33 and Richard N. Haass, War of Necessity War of Choice, pp. 202-232.
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Optional:
• (15 pages) Peter Baker, Days of Fire, Chapter 16, pp. 239-254.
• (8 pages) John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, “An Unnecessary War,” Foreign Policy, January/February 2003, http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0032.pdf
• (28 pages) James Fallows, “Blind into Baghdad,” Atlantic Monthly, January/February, 2004, http://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/2004/01/fallows.htm
• (18 pages) National Security Strategy of the United States, September 2002, Introductory
letter and pp. 13-16, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/national/nss-020920.pdf
• (7 pages) James Dobbins, After the Taliban, pp. 146 – 152
• (5 pages) Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002,
PUBLIC LAW 107-243-OCT. 16, 2002 http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-107publ243/html/PLAW-107publ243.htm
• (8 pages) UN Security Council Resolution 1441, http://www.cfr.org/un/un-security-council-resolution-1441-iraq/p11207, (scroll down);
Class 9: Wednesday February 15 Topic: Decision to Have an Extended Occupation (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option OR TAP • TAP 3 Due 9pm the evening BEFORE class: “A formal and legal occupation of
Iraq was justified by – even required by – the circumstances.” Required:
• (30 pages) Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor, The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Sruggle for Iraq, 2012, pp. 5-35.
• (11 pages) Paul Bremer, My Year in Iraq, pp. 11-22.
• (15 pages) Ali A. Allawi, The Occupation of Iraq, Chapters 5 & 6 - pp. 96-111.
• (14 pages) Douglas Feith, War and Decision, pp. 435-449. (USG document in appendices 6-9).
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• (3 pages) Bob Woodward, Bush at War, pp. 269-271.
Optional:
• James Dobbins, Seth G. Jones, Benjamin Runkle, and Siddharth Mohandas, Occupying Iraq: A History of the Coalition Provisional Authority, RAND Corporation, 2009. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG847.pdf
• (8 pages) Peter Baker, Days of Fire, Chapter 16, pp. 284-292.
• (2 pages) Paul Bremer, “Iraq's Path to Sovereignty,” Washington Post, September 8, 2003. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/yeariniraq/documents/bremerplan.html
• (2 pages) Paul Bremer, “Facts for Feith,” National Review Online, March 19, 2008.
http://article.nationalreview.com/351979/facts-for-feith/l-paul-bremer-iii
• (13 pages) James Fallows, “The Fifty-first State?” Atlantic Monthly, November 2002. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2002/11/the-fifty-first-state/2612/
• (46 pages) James Dobbins, et al. America’s Role in Nation-Building: From Germany to
Iraq, July 2003, Executive Summary & pp. 18-47. http://www.mediatimesreview.com/february05/nationbuilding.php
• (2 pages) CPA Regulation #1, May 16, 2003.
http://www.iraqcoalition.org/regulations/20030516_CPAREG_1_The_Coalition_Provisional_Authority_.pdf
• (2 pages) Patrick Tyler, “Aftereffects: New Government; In Reversal, Plan for Iraq Self
Rule has Been Put Off,” New York Times, May 17, 2003. http://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/17/world/aftereffects-new-government-in-reversal-plan-for-iraq-self-rule-has-been-put-off.html
• (4 pages) Fredrick L. Kirgis, “Security Council Resolution 1483 on the Rebuilding of
Iraq, American Society of International Law, May 2003: https://www.asil.org/insights/volume/8/issue/13/security-council-resolution-1483-rebuilding-iraq
NO CLASS: Monday February 20 Presidents’ Day Holiday
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Class 10: Wednesday February 22 Topic: Decision to Disband the Army and Institute De-Ba’athification (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option OR TAP • TAP 4 Due 9pm the evening BEFORE class: “Any Syrian peace agreement needs
to heed the lessons from Iraq which argues against dismantling state institutions.”
Required:
• (2 pages) CPA Order #1: DeBa'athification of Iraqi Society, May 16, 2003 http://www.iraqcoalition.org/regulations/20030516_CPAORD_1_De-Ba_athification_of_Iraqi_Society_.pdf
• (5 pages) CPA Order #2: Dissolution of Entities, May 23, 2003.
http://www.iraqcoalition.org/regulations/20030823_CPAORD_2_Dissolution_of_Entities_with_Annex_A.pdf (19 pages)
• (24 pages) Paul Bremer, My Year in Iraq, Excerpt from Chapters 2 & 3 - pp. 36-60.
• (15 pages) Ali A. Allawi, The Occupation of Iraq, Chapters 8 & 9 - pp. 147-162.
• (19 pages) Elmer Plischke, “Denazifying the Riech,” The Review of Politics, Vol. 9, No. 2, 1947. http://www.jstor.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/stable/pdfplus/1404219.pdf?acceptTC=true
• (6 pages) Donald Rumsfeld, Known and Unknown, Excerpt from Chapter 36 - pp. 514-
519.
• (2 pages) Roman David and Houda Mzioudet, “Executive Summary,” in Personnel Change or Personal Change? Rethinking Libya’s Personal Isolation Law, Brookings Doha Series, no. 4, May 2014. http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/03/17-libya-lustration-david-mzioudet/lustration-in-libya-english.pdf
Optional:
• (2 pages) Council on Foreign Relations, Sharon Otterman, Background, Iraq: Deba'athification, 7 April 2005. http://www.cfr.org/publication/7853/iraq.html?id=7853
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• (10 pages) Douglas Feith, War and Decision, pp. 427-435, 562-563 (Appendix 11).
• James Dobbins, Seth G. Jones, Benjamin Runkle, and Siddharth Mohandas, Occupying Iraq: A History of the Coalition Provisional Authority, RAND Corporation, 2009. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG847.pdf
• (2 pages) Michael R. Gordon, “Fateful Choices on Iraq Army Bypassed Debate,” The New York Times, March 17, 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/0/17/world/middleeast/17bremer.html
Class 11: Monday February 27 Topic: Decision to Make Iraq a Federal Country (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option Required:
• (23 pages) Paul Bremer. My Year in Iraq, First 17 pages of Chapter 8 - pp. 224-227; Chapter 11 288-308.
• (19 pages) Ali A. Allawi. The Occupation of Iraq, Chapter 12 - 219-229; Chapter 23 -
408-417.
• (3 pages) James Dobbins, The Beginner’s Guide to Nation-Building, pp. 207-209.
• (9 pages) Sean Kane, Joost R. Hiltermann, and Raad Alkadiri, “Iraq’s Federalism Quandary,” The National Interest, February 2012. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/iraq/op-eds/hiltermann-iraqs-federalism-quandary.aspx
• (4 pages) Kenneth Pollack and Zalmay Khalilzad “How Federalism Can Save Iraq,” New Republic, July 22 2014, https://newrepublic.com/article/118794/federalism-could-save-iraq-falling-apart-due-civil-war
• (1 page) Michael Young, “Federalism can calm sectarian differences in the Arab world,” The National, 10 June 2015. http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/federalism-can-calm-sectarian-differences-in-the-arab-world
• Matthew Reed, “Federalism and Libya’s Oil,” Foreign Policy, 3 February 2014. http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/02/03/federalism-and-libyas-oil/
For Reference:
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• (35 pages) Final Draft of Iraqi Constitution: http://portal.unesco.org/ci/en/files/20704/11332732681iraqi_constitution_en.pdf/iraqi_constitution_en.pdf
Optional:
• James Dobbins, Seth G. Jones, Benjamin Runkle, and Siddharth Mohandas, Occupying Iraq: A History of the Coalition Provisional Authority, RAND Corporation, 2009. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG847.pdf
• (37 pages) Noah Feldman, What We Owe Iraq, pp. 92-129.
• (15 pages) Isobel Coleman, “Women, Islam, and the New Iraq,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, No. 1, January / February 2006, pp. 24-38. http://web.ebscohost.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/ehost/detail?vid=3&hid=110&sid=9dbbe333-7c03-428d-938f-29365474c2c1%40sessionmgr104&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRl#db=aph&AN=19250173
• (2 pages) Neil Kritz, et al. “Constitutional Reform in Iraq: Improving Prospects, Political
Decisions Needed,” United States Institute of Peace, September 2007. http://www.usip.org/publications/constitutional-reform-iraq-improving-prospects-political-decisions-needed
• (3 pages) Lionel Beehner, Sharon Otterman. “Iraq: Drafting the Constitution” CFR on-
line, August 23, 2005. http://www.cfr.org/publication/8044/iraq.html
• (1 page) Lionel Beehner. “Why Sunnis Don’t Support Iraq's Constitution,” CFR on-line, October 12, 2005. http://www.cfr.org/publication/9002/why_sunnis_dont_support_iraqs_constitution.html
• (1 page) November 15, 2003 Agreement on Political Progress,
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/document/2003/1115nov15agreement.htm
• (10 pages) Adeed I. Dawisha and Karen Dawisha. “How to Build a Democratic Iraq,”
Foreign Affairs, May/June 2003, http://web.ebscohost.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/ehost/detail?vid=3&hid=110&sid=9dbbe333-7c03-428d-938f-29365474c2c1%40sessionmgr104&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRl#db=aph&AN=9516271
• (2 pages) Samir Sumaidaie. “Rethinking Iraq’s Elections?” Washington Post, December
28, 2004.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A30339-2004Dec27.html
• (14 pages) “Iraq’s Constitutional Process: Shaping a Vision for the Country’s Future,” USIP, Feb 2005, http://www.usip.org/files/resources/sr132.pdf
• (12 pages) International Crisis Group Middle East Report No. 80, “Oil for Soil: Toward a
Grand Bargain on Iraq and the Kurds,” Oct 28, 2008, pp. 15-27, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/iraq/080-oil-for-soil-toward-a-grand-bargain-on-iraq-and-the-kurds.aspx.
Classes 12 and 13: Wednesday March 1 and Monday March 6 READINGS FOR BOTH DAYS BELOW
Topic: Decision to Change Strategies and Authorize the Surge (Re-enactment, Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option – due 9pm the night before March 1
Required:
• (2 pages) New York Times Editorial Staff “Trying to Contain the Iraq Disaster,” New York Times, October 24, 2006. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/24/opinion/24tues1.html?_r=1
• (30ish pages) Peter Baker, Days of Fire, pp. 478-501 with focus on parts related to Iraq and pp. 507-528.
• (39 pages) George W. Bush, Decision Points, pp. 355-394.
• (4 pages) Iraq Study Group Report, December 2006, pp. 48-51.
• (14 pages) Peter Feaver, “The Right to be Right,” International Security, Volume 35,
Number 4, Spring 2011, pp. 97 – 111. http://www.mitpressjournals.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/ISEC_a_00033
• (5 pages) Thomas Ricks, “The Dissenter Who Changed the War,” Washington Post, February 8, 2009 (part 1). http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/07/AR2009020702153.html
• (5 pages) Thomas Ricks, “A Military Tactician’s Political Strategy,” Washington Post,
February 9, 2009 (part 2). http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/08/AR2009020802321.html
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• WATCH: Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) opposition to surge strategy
Press Conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrG2FKJOXQ8 Congressional Address: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaX81WXo7mQ
Optional:
• (87 pages) Bob Woodward, The War Within, Excerpt from Introduction - pp. 3-7, Excerpt from Chapter 1 (“A Colossal Blunder”—“Cooperation or Combat”)- 46-61, Excerpt from Chapter 1 (“A Christmas Bombing Pause”) - 71-79, Excerpts from Chapter 4 (“1967: Part II”) - 177-193, 200-204, Excerpt from Chapter 5 (“Peace by Ballot?”) - 230-239, Excerpts from Chapter 6 (“1969: Part I”) - 291-302, 309-321.
• (52 pages) Fred Kaplan, The Insurgents: David Petraeus and the Plot to Change the American Way of War, pp. 191-243.
• (11 pages) Donald Rumsfeld, Known and Unknown: A Memoir, 2011, pp. 692-703.
• (29 pages) Dick Cheney, In My Time, Ch. 14, pp. 435-464.
• (9 pages) Condoleeza Rice, No Higher Honor: A Memoir of My Years in Washington, Chapter 39 - 538-546.
• (5 pages) James Fallows, “Why Iraq Has No Army,” Atlantic Monthly, December 11, 2005, Section IV ONLY – “How to Leave with Honor” http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/12/why-iraq-has-no-army/4428/
• (10 pages) Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. “How to Win in Iraq,” Foreign Affairs,
September/October 2005. http://web.ebscohost.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/ehost/detail?vid=3&hid=110&sid=9dbbe333-7c03-428d-938f-29365474c2c1%40sessionmgr104&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRl#db=aph&AN=17979661
• (4 pages) Jonathan Rauch, “A Bad Idea that Deserves a Try,” The Atlantic, January 23,
2007. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/01/a-bad-idea-that-deserves-a-try/5600/
• (2 pages) Fred Kagan, et al. “The New Reality in Iraq,” Wall Street Journal, July 16,
2008, PDF on the course page
• (3 pages) Stephen Biddle, et al. “Not Quite Ready to Go Home,” New York Times, August 5, 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/opinion/05ohanlon.html?
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• (71 pages) David Kilcullen, The Accidental Guerilla, chapter 3, pp. 115-186.
• (36 pages) “After Baker-Hamilton: What to do in Iraq?” International Crisis Group,
Middle East Report No. 60, 19 December 2006. http://www.iraqsolidaridad.org/2006/docs/28-12-06.pdf
• (18 pages) “Where is Iraq Heading? Lessons from Basra,” International Crisis Group,
Middle East Report No. 67, 25 June 2007. http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Iraq/67_iraq___lessons_from_basra.ashx
• (21 pages) “Iraq’s Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge,” International Crisis Group,
Middle East Report No. 72, 7 February 2008. http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Iraq/72_iraq_s_civil_war_the_sadrists_and_the_surge.ashx
• (29 pages) Bob Woodward, The War Within, pp. 261-289
• (15 pages) Donald Rumsfeld, Known and Unknown, pp. 693-699, 701-703, 713-717.
• WATCH: Congressional Hearing of General Petraeus and Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL).
Debate on the effectiveness of the Surge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0upR5y-J2A
Class 14: Wednesday March 8 Topic: Guest Speaker TBA
• Readings to be assigned at a later date
SPRING BREAK – NO CLASSES MARCH 13 OR MARCH 15
Class 15: Monday March 20 Topic: Decision to Remove all U.S. Forces from Iraq in 2011 (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option • TAP 5 due 9pm the evening BEFORE class: “Had the United States kept a residual
force in Iraq after 2011, ISIS would not have emerged.”
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Required:
• READ or WATCH President Barack Obama, Remarks by the President and First Lady
on End of the War in Iraq, Fort Bragg, North Carolina, 14 December 2011. https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/12/14/remarks-president-and-first-lady-end-war-iraq; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hlq9eItoAlg
• (42 pages) Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor, The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Sruggle for Iraq, 2012, pp. 652-695.
• (18) Emma Sky, The Unraveling, pp. 345-363.
• (17 pages) Ned Parker, “The Iraq We Left Behind,” Foreign Affairs, Mar/Apr 2012. http://web.ebscohost.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/ehost/detail?vid=4&hid=17&sid=ded3b7b6-2ecd-465f-90d3-2a4e11b7dde1%40sessionmgr15&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZSZzY29wZT1zaXRl#db=aph&AN=71912448
• (7 pages) Antony Blinken, Norman Ricklefs, and Ned Parker, Response article to the
above. “Is Iraq on Track? Democracy and Disorder in Baghdad,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2012. (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137700/antony-j-blinken-norman-ricklefs-ned-parker/is-iraq-on-track).
Optional:
• Leon Panetta and Jim Newton, Worthy Fights: A Memoir of Leadership in War and Peace.
• (2 pages) Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates. “What We Need Next in Iraq,” The Washington Post, February 13, 2008. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/12/AR2008021202001.html
• (4 pages) Campbell Robertson and Stephen Farrell. “Pact, Approved in Iraq, Sets Time
for U.S. Pullout,” New York Times, November 16, 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/17/world/middleeast/17iraq.html?em
• (2 pages) Tim Arango and Michael Schmidt, “Iraq Denies Legal Immunity to U.S.
Troops After 2011,” Washington Post, October 4, 2011. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/world/middleeast/iraqis-say-no-to-immunity-for-remaining-american-troops.html
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• (2 pages) Meghan O’Sullivan, “The Problem with Obama’s Decision to Leave Iraq,” Foreign Affairs, October 28, 2011 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136621/meghan-l-osullivan/the-problem-with-obamas-decision-to-leave-iraq [Need better link - password protected, but can’t find on EBSCO]
• (11 pages) Anthony Cordesman and Sam Khazai, “Iraq After US Withdrawal: US Policy
and the Iraqi Search for Security and Stability,” Center for Strategic and International Studies Report, July 18, 2012, Executive Summary, pp. ii-xii. http://csis.org/files/publication/120718_Iraq_US_Withdrawal_Search_SecStab.pdf
For Reference:
• (3 pages) Definition of Status-of-Forces Agreement (SOFA) http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/sofa.htm
• (3 pages) U.S.-Iraq Declaration of Principles for Long-Term Relationship of Cooperation and Friendship, November 26, 2007. http://merln.ndu.edu/archivepdf/iraq/WH/20071126-11.pdf
• (7 pages) Strategic Framework Agreement for a Relationship of Friendship and
Cooperation between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq, November 17, 2008. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/national/iraq-strategic-framework-agreement.htm
• (18 pages) Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq On
the Withdrawal of United States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of Their Activities during Their Temporary Presence in Iraq, November 17, 2008. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/dod/iraq-sofa.htm
Class 16: Wednesday March 22 Topic: Guest Speaker TBA
• Readings to be assigned at a later date
Class 17: Monday March 27
NO CLASS TODAY – MAKE UP CLASS SCHEDULED FOR ______; students can use class time to work on group projects
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Class 18: Wednesday March 29
NO CLASS TODAY – MAKE UP CLASS SCHEDULED FOR ______; students can use class time to work on group projects
Class 19: Monday April 3 Topic: Decision to Complete a Nuclear Deal with Iran and the P5+1 (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option
Class 20: Wednesday April 5 Topic: Decision Not to Intervene in Syria in 2012 (Lecture and Class Discussion) OR Decision to Intervene in Libya in 2011 (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option
Class 21: Monday April 10 Topic: Decision to Support President Erdogan in Turkey (Lecture and Class Discussion)
• Possible Paper Option
UNIT 3: APPLYING LESSONS TO CURRENT CHALLENGES
Class 22: Wednesday April 12: Recommendations to a New Administration: What to do about Libya (Presentations of Strategies Developed in Group Projects)
• Readings to be assigned at a later date
Classes 23 and 24: Wednesday April 17 and Monday April 19 READINGS FOR BOTH DAYS BELOW
Topic: The Israel-Palestinian Conflict (Re-Enactment, De-Brief and Class Discussion)
• Readings to be assigned at a later date
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Class 25: Monday April 24: Recommendations to a New Administration: What to do about Syria (Presentations of Strategies Developed in Group Projects)
• Readings to be assigned at a later date
UNIT 4: CONCLUSION
Class 26: Wednesday April 26 Topic: Lessons Learned and Wrap Up
• Readings to be assigned at a later date