IIASA/GLOBIOM: An integrative approach to foresight

Petr Havlík

Foresight4Food International WorkshopMontpellier, May 22-24, 2018

IIASA’s contribution to integrated scenarios

Integration across sectors

Energy:MESSAGE

POLESWITCH

Agricultural sector model

AgMIP, OECD, FAO

Forest sector model

EC, US EPA, Sweden

GHG emissions

EC, WB, US EPA, Brazil, Congo Basin…

Other environmental aspects

Everywhere…

GLOBIOM

Earth System Model: IPSL-CM5

Food availability compared to Reference by 2050

Spatial integration: From global to local and backStakeholder process

Regional scenariosModel improvement

Output/Impact?

*Source: http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/

Accumulated Deforestation in Legal Amazon

Spatial integration: From global to local and back

Integration across time scales

Standard GLOBIOM: 10 year time steps

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2100

Validation periodPolicy Impact Assessment

Long-Term Outlook

Climate stabilization pathways

Integration across time scales

Annualized version of

GLOBIOM

For extreme weather

events analysis

Production decisions

based on price and

yield expectations

Wheat area in Europe

Source: Boere et al., forthcoming

GLOBIOM-X