Illinois and Contiguous StatesEmployment and Business Climate

Presented by

Norman Walzer

Senior Research Scholar

to

2nd Creating a Common Voice Downstate Summit 

Decatur, IL

September 20, 2012

Industry Employment Trends2000‐2010

IndustryIllinois Surrounding States: Indiana, Iowa, 

Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin

Non‐metro Metro State Non‐metro Metro* Region

Total EmploymentNumeric Change ‐60,251 ‐52,080 ‐112,331 ‐103,180 58,700 ‐44,480Percent Change ‐6.7 ‐0.8 ‐1.5 ‐2.5 0.6 ‐0.3

Farming

Numeric Change ‐15,793 ‐8,487 ‐24,280 ‐67,096 ‐35,475 ‐102,571Percent Change ‐25.1 ‐22.5 ‐24.1 ‐19.7 ‐19.1 ‐19.5Change in Share of Total Employment ‐1.4 ‐0.1 ‐0.3 ‐1.5 ‐0.3 ‐0.7

Manufacturing

Numeric Change ‐44,377 ‐266,620 ‐310,997 ‐223,570 ‐448,540 ‐673,622Percent Change ‐35.3 ‐35.4 ‐35.4 ‐30.0 ‐30.4 ‐30.3Change in Share of Total Employment ‐4.3 ‐4.1 ‐4.1 ‐5.1 ‐4.3 ‐4.5

Wholesale and Retail Trade

Numeric Change ‐8,570 ‐102,658 ‐111,228 ‐34,297 ‐134,800 ‐169,097Percent Change ‐6.4 ‐10.6 ‐10.1 ‐5.6 ‐8.1 ‐7.4Change in Share of Total Employment 0.1 ‐1.5 ‐1.3 ‐0.5 ‐1.3 ‐1.1

Services

Numeric Change 7,739 322,515 330,254 166,093 580,342 746,435Percent Change 2.9 12.7 11.8 14.4 15.2 15.0Change in Share of Total Employment 3.1 5.4 5.2 4.8 5.2 5.2

2

Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2012.

Population Change by Age Group2000‐2010

Population 

Illinois Surrounding States: Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin

Nonmetro Metro* State Nonmetro Metro* Region

Under 17 years of age ‐11.5% ‐2.5% ‐3.6% ‐4.8% 2.8% 0.4%

18 to 44 years of age ‐12.5% ‐1.8% ‐3.2% ‐6.7% 1.1% ‐1.2%

45 to 64 years of age 11.6% 23.0% 21.2% 20.8% 27.4% 25.2%

65 to 84 years of age ‐0.9% 5.9% 4.7% 5.4% 8.6% 7.4%

85 years of age and older 4.9% 24.9% 20.4% 7.9% 22.2% 16.7%

Total Population ‐4.5% 4.4% 3.2% 2.1% 8.4% 6.4%

3

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau; EASI Analytics, Inc., 2011.

-0.9%

1.7%

5.6%

-1.8%

-20.5%

-7.7%

7.4%10.1%

-4.7%

-21.1%-18.8%

3.9%

20.1%

30.3% 31.0%

19.9%

2.6%

-6.0%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Perc

ent C

hang

e 20

10 -

2020

Population Age Cohort

Projected Population TrendsDownstate Non‐Metropolitan Counties  Illinois (2010 to 2020)

4

Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2012.

Baby Boomers

Baby BustGeneration Z

Millennials Silent Generation

Generation Alpha

Industry Earnings per Employee 2000‐2010

IndustryIllinois Surrounding States: Indiana, Iowa, 

Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin

Nonmetro Metro* State Nonmetro Metro* Region

Farming2000 $19,465 $20,538 $19,868 $13,657 $13,592 $13,6342010 $46,917 $55,916 $50,368 $26,732 $21,787 $24,983

Percent Change 141.0 172.3 153.5 95.7 60.3 83.2

Manufacturing2000 $39,470 $42,877 $43,108 $43,517 $58,607 $53,5062010 $41,776 $45,016 $46,078 $46,149 $64,606 $58,387

Percent Change 5.8 5.0 6.9 6.0 10.2 9.1

Wholesale and Retail Trade2000 $22,574 $24,536 $24,690 $24,443 $33,610 $31,1452010 $26,393 $25,840 $27,924 $25,380 $34,882 $32,277

Percent Change 16.9 5.3 13.1 3.8 3.8 3.6

Services2000 $20,807 $23,195 $22,771 $23,297 $34,029 $31,5432010 $22,587 $24,312 $24,720 $24,966 $36,362 $33,736

Percent Change 8.6 4.8 8.6 7.2 6.9 7.0

5Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2012.

Shift‐Share Employment Comparisons

• National Share– Changes resulting from national economic trends.

• Industry Mix– Changes because of concentrations of fast or slow growing industries 

nationally.

• Competitive Share– Remaining changes that result mainly from local conditions.– Does the industry grow faster in the region or in the nation? 

6

Manufacturing Employment Trends2000‐2011

7

State TotalChange

PercentChange

NationalShare

IndustryMix

CompetitiveShare

CompetitiveShare (Percent)

Illinois ‐274,748 ‐31% 42,717 ‐52,846 ‐8,507 ‐0.97%

Indiana ‐229,863 ‐34% 32,719 ‐40,477 ‐25,940 ‐3.85%

Iowa ‐41,810 ‐16% 12,415 ‐15,359 35,569 13.91%

Kentucky ‐111,373 ‐35% 15,284 ‐18,908 ‐16,112 ‐5.12%

Missouri ‐111,858 ‐30% 18,110 ‐22,403 1,012 0.27%

Wisconsin ‐137,324 ‐23% 29,335 ‐36,291 45,513 7.53%

Manufacturing Competitive Share2000‐2011

Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics Inc., 2012. 

Percent change in

manufacturing employment

-52.12% - 10.87%

-10.86 - 3.18

3.19 - 20.5

20.51- 111.54

8

Summary of State Rankings*Lowest Number is Highest Rank

State CNBC Forbes Tax Foundation Info Tech & Innov Fndn Beacon Hill Institute Kauffman 

FoundationChief Executive 

Magazine

Iowa 12 10 41 38 8 37 22

Illinois 26 41 28 15 44 46 48

Indiana 14 34 11 35 43 47 5

Kentucky 36 25 22 44 46 11 25

Michigan 33 47 18 17 25 41 46

Minnesota 11 15 45 13 4 38 36

Missouri 27 31 15 33 33 6 24

Ohio 25 38 39 25 45 31 35

Wisconsin 17 40 43 29 22 43 20

*Compiled by the Center for Governmental Studies.

9

Summary of Ranks

• Ranks vary wildly.

• “Thirty‐four of the 50 states can brag that they are in the top 10 …; they just have to pick which of the five indices they want to point to.”  (Fisher, 2005, 71).

• Differences in states’ average rankings not statistically significant. 

StateAverage ranking(1‐50)

HighestRank

LowestRank

Iowa 24 8 41

Illinois 35 15 48

Indiana 27 5 47

Kentucky 30 11 46

Michigan 32 17 47

Minnesota 23 4 45

Missouri 24 6 33

Ohio 34 25 45

Wisconsin 31 17 43

10

Questions to Pose

• For What Industries is Illinois Most Suited?– Downstate Rural, Downstate Metro, and Metro

• What Assets Can It Offer?– Market Access, Transportation, Natural Resources, Capital– Higher Education, Broadband 

• Availability of Adequate Skilled Work Force?• Business Operating Environment and Tools

– Taxes, Services, Incentives• How to Best Market Illinois and the Midwest?

– Positive, Unified Message– Collaboration Among Partners

For Further Information

Norman WalzerSenior Research Scholar

Center for Governmental StudiesNorthern Illinois University148 North Third Street

DeKalb, IL 60115815‐753‐0933

nwalzer@niu.edu