illinois governor rod r. blagojevich climate change advisory group (iccag) energy 2020 reference...
TRANSCRIPT
Illinois Governor Rod R. BlagojevichIllinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich
Climate Change Advisory GroupClimate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG)(ICCAG)
ENERGY 2020 Reference Case ENERGY 2020 Reference Case
July 10, 2007July 10, 2007DRAFT – Numbers subject to DRAFT – Numbers subject to
revisionrevision
22
Data Sources - EconomicData Sources - Economic
Economic output and employment forecast Economic output and employment forecast from REMI model from REMI model (Provided by IDECO)(Provided by IDECO)
Energy prices from U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Energy prices from U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2007 to 2030 Outlook (AEO) for 2007 to 2030
Moderate population growth (<1% annually) Moderate population growth (<1% annually) Real personal income expected to grow more Real personal income expected to grow more
rapidly - raising income/capitarapidly - raising income/capita
33
Data Sources - EconomicData Sources - Economic
Population and Income: 1990 2005 2020 2035
AverageAnnual Growth
1990-2005 2005-2025
Population (Thousands) 10,825 12,770 13,816 15,356 1.1% 0.6%
Personal Income (Billions 2000$) 352 467 908 1,636 1.8% 4.1%
Income per Capita ($/Capita) 32,515 36,604 65,713 106,532 0.8% 3.5%
44
Data Sources - EconomicData Sources - Economic
Employment patterns have shifted over Employment patterns have shifted over the past 15 yearsthe past 15 years
Service economy growth has offset Service economy growth has offset decreased industrial/agricultural decreased industrial/agricultural employment.employment.
Pattern is expected to continue over the Pattern is expected to continue over the forecast period.forecast period.
55
Data Sources - EconomicData Sources - Economic
Employment 1990 2005 2020 2035
AverageAnnual Growth
Industrial 1,335 1,169 1,130 1,158 -0.3%
Commercial 4,824 5,173 5,893 6,308 0.6%
Government 670 735 776 823 0.5%
Agriculture & Forestry 123 103 93 81 -0.9%
Total - 6,951 7,181 7,892 8,371 0.4%
66
Historic Energy Use DataHistoric Energy Use DataDescription of Data Sources Household Data - including number of housing units by structure type.
US Census Bureau
Residential Data - Household income by housing type - No. of people per household - End use data including primary fuel type for space and water heating, air conditioning saturations, etc..
EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey - by Census Region and Division http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/contents.html
Commercial Data - Floor area by sub-sector - End use data including primary fuel for space and water heating, and energy intensities.
EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) - by Census Region and Division http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/contents.html
77
Historic Energy Use DataHistoric Energy Use DataDescription of Data Sources Commercial Data - Floor area by sub-sector - End use data including primary fuel for space and water heating, and energy intensities.
EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) - by Census Region and Division http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cbecs/contents.html
Industrial/Manufacturing Data - Energy use by sub-sector and end use
EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey - by Census Region http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/contents.html
State Energy Data: - Overall energy consumption and expenditures by sector and energy source.
EIA State Energy Data System (SEDS) http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html Illinois Commerce Commission Annual Comparison of Sales Statistics for Electricity and Natural Gas http://www.icc.illinois.gov/industry/publicutility/energy/salesstatistics.aspx
88
Data Sources - PricesData Sources - Prices
Oil prices from AEO (figure follows) Oil prices from AEO (figure follows) Wellhead price of natural gas based on AEOWellhead price of natural gas based on AEO Coal price based on the AEO (both mine mouth Coal price based on the AEO (both mine mouth
and delivered prices for electric power plant)and delivered prices for electric power plant) Historic electricity prices from Energy Historic electricity prices from Energy
Information Administration (EIA) (Information Administration (EIA) (Federal Electricity Federal Electricity Regulatory Commission (FERC) Form 1). Regulatory Commission (FERC) Form 1).
Model calculates power prices based on Model calculates power prices based on generation costs. generation costs. (Actual prices may differ as a result (Actual prices may differ as a result
of political, regulatory or market influences).of political, regulatory or market influences).
99
Data Sources - PricesData Sources - Prices
1010
Data Sources - PricesData Sources - Prices
1111
Data Sources – Power SectorData Sources – Power Sector Generation from EPA’s National Electric Energy Generation from EPA’s National Electric Energy
Data System (NEEDS) 2006 databaseData System (NEEDS) 2006 database Reviewed additional sources regarding planned Reviewed additional sources regarding planned
generation and for calibration:generation and for calibration:
Implementation of EGU1 and EGU2 Policies Using the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®) in the Midwest RPO Region Prepared for Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO)
Study of Emissions Impact by the Illinois Sustainable Energy Plan Based on Optimal Power Flow Modeling, PowerWorld
Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants Coal’s Resurgence in Electric Power Generation, DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory.
1212
Points of ComparisonPoints of Comparison
Power SectorPower Sector LADCO and PowerWorld reportsLADCO and PowerWorld reports NETL re planned generationNETL re planned generation September 2006 Illinois Auction Post-Auction
Public Report of the Staff, Illinois Commerce Commission re prices
GHG Emissions – US EPA Inventory and WRI GHG Emissions – US EPA Inventory and WRI report for Illinois.report for Illinois.
Transportation - Illinois EPA and DOTTransportation - Illinois EPA and DOT
1313
Built EnvironmentBuilt Environment
Housing Splits by Type
2005 2015 2025
Single Family 65% 65% 66%
Multi Family 33% 33% 32%
Other Residential 2% 2% 2%
The Reference Case assumes no significant change in the mix of the housing stock over the forecast period.
1414
Reference Case - Power SectorReference Case - Power Sector
Assumed 2,400 MW of coal capacity now in Assumed 2,400 MW of coal capacity now in planning stage will come oplanning stage will come on-line in 2009 – 2011 n-line in 2009 – 2011 (reflects additions already in play). (reflects additions already in play).
1,460 MW of Coal capacity assumed to be 1,460 MW of Coal capacity assumed to be retired prior to 2009 when mercury emissions retired prior to 2009 when mercury emissions requirements come into effect.requirements come into effect.
For modeling purposes only – no assumptions re For modeling purposes only – no assumptions re specific plants.specific plants.
Transmission interconnections modeled based Transmission interconnections modeled based on existing capacities as obtained from NERC.on existing capacities as obtained from NERC.
1515
Reference Case - Power SectorReference Case - Power Sector
Illinois Electricity Sales
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sa
les
(G
Wh
/ye
ar)
Street/Misc
Transportation
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
1616
Illinois Power GenerationIllinois Power Generation
Power Generation by Source
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ge
ner
ati
on
(G
Wh
) Other
Wind
LandfillGas/EFWHydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas/Oil
1717
Power Sector – Generation by SourcePower Sector – Generation by SourceGeneration Summary (GWh/year) 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020
Gas/Oil 2,720 11,178 22,087 32,352 36,068
Coal 79,936 83,023 88,479 99,674 99,674
Nuclear 89,186 91,844 92,264 92,264 92,264
Hydro 522 522 338 338 338
Landfill Gas/EFW 3 3 941 1,308 1,664
Wind - - 311 1,626 2,779
Other (0) (0) 277 277 693
Total 172,367 186,570 204,698 227,840 233,479
Illinois Generation by Type - 2020Share of Generation (GWh) Output
Gas/Oil15.4%
Coal42.7%
Nuclear39.5%
Hydro0.1%
Wind1.2%
Other0.3%
Landfill Gas/EFW0.7%
Illinois Generation by Type - 2004Share of Generation (GWh) Output
Gas/Oil6.0%
Coal44.5%
Nuclear49.2%
Hydro0.3%
1818
Power SectorPower Sector
Nuclear and coal contribution declines 2005-Nuclear and coal contribution declines 2005-2020 (as share of total) as alternative sources 2020 (as share of total) as alternative sources increase. Oil/Gas share more than doubles.increase. Oil/Gas share more than doubles.
Wind, LFG and EFW reach almost 2% of supply Wind, LFG and EFW reach almost 2% of supply Growth in Illinois demand approximately 1.3% Growth in Illinois demand approximately 1.3%
per year. per year. Growth in line with previous forecasts (LADCO & Growth in line with previous forecasts (LADCO &
Shaw reports).Shaw reports).
1919
Transportation Sector - DemandTransportation Sector - DemandAverage Annual Growth
1990to 2004
2005to 2030
Passenger 1.7% 1.9%
Freight 0.7% 0.9%
Growth in passenger energy use continues to exceed rate of growth in population. Freight energy use grows at a more moderate rate.
Bulk of passenger energy use for personal vehicles.
Passenger Transportation Energy Use
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1990 2005 2020
En
erg
y U
se
(TB
tu/y
ear
) Marine
Plane
Train
Bus
Motorcycle
Passengervehicle
2020
Transportation SectorTransportation Sector
No major increase in vehicle efficiencies assumed in Reference Case.
Passenger Vehicle Efficiency (Average fleet efficiency by vehicle weight class)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0E
ffic
ien
cy (
mil
es/g
allo
n) Light Gasoline
Light Diesel
MediumGasoline
MediumDiesel
HeavyGasoline
Heavy Diesel
2121
Industry SectorIndustry SectorGross Output by Sector
2005
Food & Tobacco15%
Fabricated Metals10%
Machines11%
Chemicals13%
Electric Equipment4%
Computers8%
Other Manufacturing17%
Petroleum Products5%
Non-ferrous/Smelting & Refining
4%
Mining1%
Paper4%
Transport Equipment8%
Energy Intensive Industries represent 27% of GO in 2005. Energy use per dollar output in these industries is typically an order of magnitude higher than in other/general manufacturing.
2222
Industry SectorIndustry SectorGross Output by Sector - 2020
Food & Tobacco12%
Fabricated Metals8%
Machines9%
Chemicals11%
Electric Equipment3%
Computers21%
Other Manufacturing18%
Petroleum Products4%
Non-ferrous/Smelting & Refining
3%
Mining1%
Paper3%
Transport Equipment7%
Energy Intensive industries projected to fall from 27% of industrial gross output in 2005 to 22% by 2030.
2323
Illinois GHG Emissions – Base CaseIllinois GHG Emissions – Base Case
Illinois GHG Emissions - Reference Case
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mt
CO
2e
Agriculture & Forestry
Sequestering
Waste & Wastewater
Power Sector
Freight Transport
Passenger Transport
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
2424
GHG Emissions by SectorGHG Emissions by Sector
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2004 2020
Waste & Wastewater
Power Sector
Freight Transport
Passenger Transport
Residential
Industrial
Commercial
Agriculture/ Forestry
2525
Illinois GHG Emissions – Base CaseIllinois GHG Emissions – Base CaseIllinois GHG Emissions in 2020
Base Case
Commercial 4%
Industrial14%
Power Sector38%
Freight Transport3%
Passenger Transport26%
Residential 7%
Agriculture/Forestry8%
2626
Questions?Questions?