impact of climate change on aviation vulnerability
DESCRIPTION
Impact of climate cHange on aviation vulnerability. Schmitz, Kreuz , Temme, Mühlhausen INAIR Conference Bratislava, November 8 th 2013. Extreme weather – an aviation perspective. Passengers stranded at airport for two days as airlines cancel flights due to big freeze (01/18/2013). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 1 > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AVIATION VULNERABILITY
Schmitz, Kreuz, Temme, Mühlhausen
INAIR ConferenceBratislava, November 8th 2013
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 2
Extreme weather – an aviation perspective
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02450/heathrowsnow_2450348b.jpg
Heathrow airport all but shut as snow
hits Christmas travel plans
(12/20/2010)
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/02/05/article-2096586-11991D22000005DC-617_964x533.jpg
Europe Snow Storm Closes Airports: London Heathrow Closed Until Sunday (12/18/2010)
Near-Crash in Hamburg: Investigators
Criticize Airbus for Inadequate Pilot
Manuals (03/04/2010)
http://d1.stern.de/bilder/politik/2008/10/crash250_fitwidth_420.jpg
http://thetravelingtype.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/cancelled_flights1.jpg
http://www.webjet.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/flight-cancelled.jpg
Passengers stranded at airport for two
days as airlines cancel flights due to big
freeze (01/18/2013)
> Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 3
Outline
- Definition of vulnerability in the ATM context
- METAR weather codes by the ATM Performance Group (ATMAP)
- Severe weather impacts on the ATM- Single airport (local view)- ATM European network (regional view)
- Interdependencies of traffic conditions at airports and severe weather impacts
- Conclusions
> Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 4
Uncertainty:type of pertubation
Uncertainty:type of stress
State of ATM System*
*as defined in (Gluchshenko 2012)
Modification of system
lethal stress
New reference state of system
permanent pertubation
Resilience of system
transient pertubation
Robustness of system
no stress
Uncertainties:type, frequency, intensity, duration and timeof occurrence
disturbance
survival stress
ATM-System
> Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
Eurocontrol ATM Airport Performance (ATMAP) – GroupSeverity Classes assigned to METAR weather codes
- METAR is a message containing all safety critical meteorological observations for flight operations in a given airport and nearby airspace (up to 16km from the airport)
- ATMAP weather algorithm* assigns severity coefficients to the following weather classes (the higher the coefficient the more severe the weather event)
- Visibility and Ceiling- Wind- Precipitations- Freezing conditions- Dangerous phenomena
- En-Route weather events are not covered by METAR descriptions
www.DLR.de • Chart 5
*Eurocontrol Technical Note: Algorithm to describe weather conditions at European airports – ATMAP weather algorithm Version 2.3, May 2011
> Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
Elements of ATMAP-weather classes with high coefficients
Weather Class
Ceiling and visibility
Wind Precipitations Freezing conditions
Dangerous phenomena
De-scription
„Low visibility“ operations; ILS separation minima increased
Impact on aircraft over ground speed; crosswind threshold
Substantial equipment, complex procedures required
Heavy frost conditions even for Scandinavia
Dangerous for safety of aircraft operations, unpredictable impact
Condition ApproachCAT II - III
Wind speed > 30 kts
FZxx, (+)SN [T > 3°C and (+)(SH)SN, FZxxx]OR[T<= -15°C with visible moisture]
[TCU, CB and cloud cover][TCU, CB and cloud cover and (+/-) SHxx][GS, FC, DS, SS, VA, SA, GR, PL, TS, +TS]
Co-efficient
4-5 4 3 4 [3-12][4-24][18-24]
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 6 > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
Severe weather impact on aviation industry (1)
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230
10
20
30
40
50
60
Disruptions due to thunderstorms at late eveningplanned and actual movements - (May 2008)
Coefficient: 2,69
Real-ArrReal-DepPlan-ArrPlan-Dep
Hours of day
Mov
emen
ts p
er h
our
> Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
Severe weather impact on aviation industry (2)
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230
10
20
30
40
50
60
Disruptions due to fog in the morning hours- Planned and actual movements - (October 2008)
Coefficient: 0,59
Real-ArrReal-DepPlan-ArrPlan-Dep
Mov
emen
ts p
er h
our
Hours of the day
> Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
Severe weather impact on aviation industry (3)
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 9 > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230
10
20
30
40
50
60
Disruptions due to low snow fall in the morning hours, heavy snowfall and low vis-ibility in the afternoon
Planned and actual movements - (March 2006)Coefficient: 4,74
Real-ArrReal-DepPlan-ArrPlan-Dep
mov
emen
ts p
er h
our
Traffic over Europe, 2006-06-15
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 10 > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
Kyrill: Comparison of travel times at European airports: (Arrivals, ASMA 100 NM)
15161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445
Hel
sink
i-Van
taa
Osl
o-G
.
Sto
ckho
lm
Kop
enha
gen
Ham
burg
Dub
lin
Man
ches
ter
Ber
lin-T
egel
Am
ster
dam
War
scha
u
L.-S
tans
ted
L.-H
eath
row
Düs
seld
orf
L.-G
atw
ick
Brü
ssel
Köl
n/B
onn
Pra
g
Fran
kfur
t
Par
is C
DG
Par
is O
RY
Stu
ttgar
t
Mün
chen
Wie
n
Züric
h
Gen
f
M.-M
alpe
nsa
M.-L
inat
e
Rom
Bar
celo
na
Ista
nbul
Mad
rid
Ath
en
Airports (North ->South)
Ave
rage
trav
el ti
me
[min
]
18012007 (Kyrill)2310200901122011
Travel time: Consequences from Kyrill
Source: EUROCONTROL DDR-Data
> Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 11
Network effects
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 12 > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
Interdependencies of traffic conditions at airports and severe weather impacts
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 13 > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
Conclusions
- Definition of the conditions vulnerability and resilience
- Classification of weather events according to the ATMAP group
- Overview of the impact of extreme weather events on the performance of the ATM system using local and regional traffic examples
- Interdependencies of traffic conditions at airports and severe weather impacts
Next step- Vulnerability of airports depending on their demand and airside capacity
ratio
www.DLR.de/fl • Chart 14 > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013
Thank you for your attention!!!
Michael [email protected]
Reinhard [email protected]
Annette [email protected]
Thorsten Mü[email protected]
DLR German Aerospace Center
Institute of Flight Guidance
www.DLR.de/fl • chart 15 > Aviation Vulnerability > Kreuz • INAIR Conference > November 8th 2013