Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health)

in Taiwan

Pei-Fen Lee

North South

North South

Roads

36000 Km2

68% vegetated cover

Elevation vs. Latitude

• Elevational gradients can be useful as they can constitute a fine-scale substitute for latitudinal gradients

Long-term Prediction and Short-term Monitoring

• Long-termSpecies distribution databaseEnvironmental databaseSpecies distribution modelsFuture projection from IPCC dataChange in species distribution

• Short-termAlpine bird distribution (Yushan National

Park)

Finch-billed Bulbul (白環鸚嘴鵯 )

Species distribution data

Species Distribution Models

• Logistic regression• Discriminant function analysis• Artificial neural network (ANN)• Cummulative distribution function• Genetic algorithm (GARP)• MaxEnt

From Occurrence to Probability

白耳畫眉

0

1

®0 30 6015 KM

White-eared Sibia（白耳畫眉）

Presence Maps

F0 40 8020KM

黑眶蟾蜍預測分布區

F0 40 8020KM

史丹吉氏小雨蛙預測分布區

Bufo melanosticus （黑眶蟾蜍） Microhyla inomata （史丹吉氏小雨蛙）

Climate Change Scenario• RSM2 for 2100 (15 x 15 Km grid)

CO2 concentration expected to be doubled

• IPCC data (1 x 1 Km grid)• Species

Breeding birds (117 species, 75%)Amphibians (24 species, 73%)Freshwater fishes (25 species, 42%)

Climate Change ScenarioTemperature: RSM2 Precipitation: RSM2

IPCC dataAnnual meantemperature

(˚C)

Annual Total

Precipitation (mm)

Fairy Pitta (Pitta nympha) Low-elevation forest speciesStatus: Vulnerable < 10,000 worldwide

Wintering

Breeding (Apr. to Sep.)

Source: BirdLife International

14 16 18 20 22 24 26Temperature (C)

0

100

200

300

Freq

uen c

y

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Proportion per B

ar

Mean: 22.3°C Range: 16~26°Cn=514

Fairy Pitta: mean temperature

20-25°C 98%

2020 2050 2100CCS - B2

Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta

20-25°C

Suitable

2020 2050 2100CMA - A2

Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta

20-25°C

Current

2020

2050

2100

Taiwan Yuhina: change in distribution due to climate change

• Reduced suitable habitat• Moving toward higher elevation• Dramatic change between 2050 and 2100

Suitable

Endemic BirdsDecreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina

Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei

Decreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina

Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei

15 species 2 species

0 30 6015Km

±

目前鳥種豐度之分布預測0 - 1011 - 2021 - 3031 - 4041 - 5051 - 6061 - 7071 - 80

0 30 6015Km

±

氣候變遷後種豐度分布預測0 - 1011 - 2021 - 3031 - 4041 - 5051 - 6061 - 7071 - 80

Breeding Birds: change in species richnessCurrent Under RSM2

In 2100

0 30 6015Km

±

預測氣候變遷後之鳥種數增減情形減少無變化增加

Breeding birds: change in species richness

Decrease in low-elevation& mid-elevation

Increase in high-elevation

Amphibians: change in species richnessCurrent RSM2

0 40 8020

公里

兩生類多樣性0 - 1

1 - 3

3 - 5

5 - 7

7 - 10

0 40 8020

公里

兩生類多樣性0 - 1

1 - 3

3 - 5

5 - 7

7 - 10

®0 40 8020

公里

兩生類減少種數DIFF

-1 - -0.8

-0.8 - -0.6

-0.6 - -0.4

-0.4 - -0.2

-0.2 - 0.0

Amphibians: change in species richness

• Due to low dispersal ability, most frog species show local contraction in distribution

• Fragmentation

Freshwater Fish: change in richness

Current RSM2

Freshwater Fish

Negative impact: Low-mid elevation Positive impact: High elevation

Monitoring from 1922 to 20113100-3700 m in elevation in Yushan National Park

Breeding Bird Monitoring

1992, 2006 & 2009-2011

Vegetation typesVegetation zone Elevation range

(m)Climatic zone Annual mean

temperaturerange (°C)

Alpine zone 3800–3952 Subarctic < 4Juniper shrub 3600–3800 Subarctic 4–5Fir forests 3100–3600 Cold–temperate 5–8Hemlock forests 2700–3100 Cool–temperate 8–10Spruce forests 2500–2700 Cool–temperate 10–11Mixed forests 2300–2500 Temperate 11–12Upper Quercus zone

2000–2300 Temperate 12–14

Lower Quercus zone

1500–2000 Warm–temperate 14–17

Machilus–Castanopsis zone

500–1500 Subtropical 17–23

Population density (#/ha): 1992, 2006 and 2009High-elevation speciesMid-elevation species

13 Species 1992 2006 2009 Trend

Alpine Accentor 11.35 4.42 4.95 DownWren 58.64 37.56 21.90 DownVinaceus Rose Finch 37.35 6.22 7.96 DownFormosan Laughing Thrush 40.21 5.19 3.01 DownJohusten’s Bush Robin 27.36 11.94 8.66 DownFormosan Firecrest 144.37 81.57 132.10 UncertainWhite-browed Bush Robin 11.94 16.71 11.97 UncertainYellow-bellied Bush Warbler 20.06 8.95 13.13 UncertainBeavan’s Bullfinch 0.32 5.09 1.02 UncertainCoal Tit 14.90 5.57 9.93 UncertainStreak-throated Fulvetta 40.55 67.20 90.54 UpOrange Parrotbill 0.00 3.98 19.10 UpNuthatch 0.00 0.00 5.66 Up

Population Trend• Density

Decreasing: 5 high-elevation speciesUncertain: 5 Increasing: 3 mid-elevation species

1992 2006 2009YEAR

0

50

100

150

200

Tota

l Den

sity (

indivi

d./h

a.)

1992 2006 2009YEAR

0

50

100

150

200

1992 2006 2009YEAR

0

50

100

150

200

鷦鷯 火冠戴菊 灰頭花翼

Wren Formosan FirecrestStreak-throated

Fulvetta

• Upper distribution limit (m)

Species 1992 2009 ChangeAlpine Accentor 3602 3612 10Wren 3438 3438 0Vinaceus Rose Finch 3438 3513 74Formosan Laughing Thrush 3447 3438 -9Johusten’s Bush Robin 3438 3492 54Formosan Firecrest 3338 3422 84White-browed Bush Robin 3182 3454 272Yellow-bellied Bush Warbler 3338 3434 96Beavan’s Bullfinch 3180 3200 20Coal Tit 3223 3303 80Streak-throated Fulvetta 3258 3401 143Orange Parrotbill 3200 ?Nuthatch 3200 ?

• Changes between 1992 and 2009

2009 vs. 1992

Change in mean elevation (m) +42.9

Change in mean upper limit (m) +33.7

Community pattern• Biodiversity increase in high elevation

Temperature Change

Summer Winter

• Decrease in snow days– 1992 – 40 days– 2006 – 11 days

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Year

0

10

20

30

40

50S

now

ing

days

in W

inte

rR=0.45, p=0.03

Dongsha Atoll National ParkSouth China Sea

Climate Change Impacts• Under climate change, many species

are expected to suffer a reduction in habitable area

• Because smaller areas support smaller populations, species extinction risk is expected to increase

Climate Change Impacts

• Short-term change observed in Yushan National Park is similar to those predicted in long-term distribution trend

• Protected areas may turn out to be in the wrong place in the shifting template of temperature and moisture

Climate Change Impacts

• Ecological disturbance in human dominated areasReduced species richnessMore pests and unwanted grass

speciesPotential public health problem

• E.g., dengue fever

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004Year

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Num

ber o

f cas

esDengue Trend in Southern Taiwan

2002

78127902

79037904

79057906

79077908

79097910

79128001

80028003

80048005

80068007

80088009

801080118012

81018102

81038104

81058106

81078108

810985118610

86128701

87028703

87048705

87068707

87088709

871087118712

88018802

88038804

88058806

88078808

88098810

881188128901

89028903

89048905

89068907

89088909

891089118912

90019002

90039004

90059006

90079008

90099010

901190129101

91029103

91049105

91069107

91089109

911091119112

92019202

92039204

92059206

92079208

9209

Year and Month

0

1000

2000

3000

4000N

umbe

r of c

ases

Dengue and Precipitation

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001

/05/05

2001

/06/02

2001

/06/30

2001

/07/28

2001

/08/25

2001

/09/22

2001

/10/20

2001

/11/17

2001

/12/15

2002

/01/12

2002

/02/09

2002

/03/09

2002

/04/06

2002

/05/04

2002

/06/01

2002

/06/29

2002

/07/27

2002

/08/24

2002

/09/21

2002

/10/19

2002

/11/16

2002

/12/14

2003

/01/11

2003

/02/08

2003

/03/08

2003

/04/05

2003

/05/03

2003

/05/31

2003

/06/28

RainConfirmed Cases

2002

/6/1

Dengue case distributionOnly concentrated in certain districts

Dengue and Urban Development

• Older community• Rural region• City and county junction• Low biodiversity and potentially less

managed areas

Bio-indicators for Climate Change

• Different species groupsBird, amphibian, fish, barnacle

• Different ecosystems (spatial)Urban, coastal, high mountain

• Different temporal scales Month, season, year, decade, …

Barnacle distribution

21 species

nMDS plot

Barnacle distribution

Species occurrence

Abundance