IMPACT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

ON INDIAN ELECTRICITY GRID

7th SEPT, 2017

POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLES IN INDIA

India has significant potential of electricity generation from renewable energy sources.

MNRE estimates Solar potential in India 745 GW Wind potential in India 103 GW

Solar and wind intensity map of India

Hydro ; 44478,42; 14%

Coal; 192162,88; 59%

Gas; 25329,38; 8%

Diesel; 837,63; 0%

Nuclear; 6780; 2%

RES * (MNRE); 57260,23; 17%

All India Installed Capacity (As on 31.03.2017)

TOTAL 3,26,848 MW

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

31ST MARCH,2008 31ST MARCH,2012 31ST MARCH,2017

2,12 941,3

12288,83

7666,84

16896,6

32279,77

2045,07

3410,5

4379,855

1411,38 3255

8311,78

MW

Development of RE in India

Solar Wind Small hydro(SHP) Bio-Power

Solar Power 12.288,83

21%

Wind Power 32.279,77

56%

Bio-Power & Waste Power

8.311,78 15%

Small Hydro Power 4.379,86

8%

RES Installed capacity in MW as on 31st March, 2017

Total : 57,260.23

(Source: NLDC)

INITIATIVES OF GOI FOR GROWTH OF RENEWABLES

57.260 71.768

95.319

120.772

147.541

174.998

12.289 25.475

43.035

61.693

80.899 100.000

32.280 33.578

39.078 45.305

52.258 60.000

-10.000

40.000

90.000

140.000

190.000

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

2021

-22

MW

YEAR

Projected Growth of RES Installed Generating Capacity (MW)

WIND

SOLAR

TOTAL RES

Solar; 100; 57%

Wind; 60; 34%

Biomass; 10; 6%

Small hydro; 5; 3%

Renewable Energy Target by 2022 175 GW

Maharashtra 22045 13%

Tamil Nadu 21508 12% Andhra Pradesh

18477 11%

Gujarat 17133 10%

Karnataka 14817

8%

Rajasthan 14362

8%

Uttar Pradesh 14221

8%

Madhya Pradesh 12018

7% [CATEGORY NAME]* [PERCENTAGE]

Projected RES Installed Capacity in RE Rich States by 2021-22

GENERATION PROFILE OF RES

RES derive energy from natural sources, their availability may be highly variable and so these generation sources are called Variable Renewable Energy Sources(VRE).

Generation from the VRE cannot be scheduled with the same accuracy as that from conventional sources. The variability occurring is both diurnal and seasonal, as is the case of generation from solar plants.

The other reason for variation is attributed to the uncertainty associated with natural phenomenon like sudden movement of clouds etc.

Solar

Solar energy generation involves the use of the sun’s energy to provide electricity via solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) systems.

The amount of energy produced directly depends on the sunshine intensity. Thus, the output varies both seasonally and daily.

Also there are short term variations due to weather conditions like clouds or rainfall.

Normally generation from a solar plant gradually increases after dawn and reaches a maximum around noon and then gradually decreases and becomes “Zero” with the advent of evening.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 5 10 15 20 25

MW

HOURS

IDEAL SOLAR GENERATION CURVE OF A TYPICAL DAY

Solar

The uncertainty associated with the output of a single PV system can be smoothened out in two ways-

Aggregating a large no. of PV systems and Aggregating the output of different PV systems

scattered at dispersed geographic locations. As the number of PV plants increases, their normalized, aggregate output becomes smoother

Wind

Wind turbine output is directly proportional to cube of the wind speed, wind power becomes unavailable at both very low and very high speed.

This is different from the solar generation where

changes occur rapidly and variation may be from second to second due to cloud cover.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0 5 10 15 20 25

MW

Hours

Typical Wind Generation Curve of a Day

Projected All India Net Load Curve

From the projected hourly All India Demand profile and the All India hourly Renewable Generation pattern for the year 2021-22, the All India Net Load profile was arrived at by treating generation from renewable energy sources as negative load.

All India Net load profile thus obtained is

generally known as “Duck Curve” owing to its shape.

205598

225751

194161

215431

111.000

131.000

151.000

171.000

191.000

211.000

231.000

251.000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW

HOURS

PROJECTED ALL INDIA LOAD OF A DAY

TOTAL LOAD NET LOAD

MAJOR CHALLENGES

Advanced Forecasting

Increased Ramping Requirements

Balancing requirement

Transmission System Strengthening

Market Design

IMPACT ON CARBON EMISSIONS

Based on the projections of capacity addition by 2021-22

Estimated generation available from variable renewable

energy sources (Solar and Wind) in 2021-22 274 BU

With present weighted average emission rate of 0.82

kgCO2/KWh, Estimated CO2 to be avoided annually

by 2021-22 225 MT

IMPACT ON CARBON EMISSIONS

India’s INDC commitment of 40% of cumulative installed capacity

from non-fossil fuel by 2030 shall be fulfilled much earlier if the pace

of capacity addition from RES is maintained as per schedule as

shown.

Year Likely Installed

Capacity (GW)

Likely IC of Fossil Fuel

(GW)

Likely IC of Non-Fossil Fuel (GW)

% of Non-Fossil Fuel in

Installed Capacity

March 2022

515.1 270.2 244.9 47.5%

March 2027

602.9 241.1 361.7 60.0%

IMPACT ON PLF OF THE COAL BASED PLANTS

Indian power sector is dominated by Coal

based generation, the impact would be largely

felt by these plants. In fact, the study results

indicate that the generation from VRE and Coal

based plants are almost perfectly negatively

co-related.

53,1

50,9 48,9

56,9

54,7 52,7

60,9

58,7

56,7

45,0

47,0

49,0

51,0

53,0

55,0

57,0

59,0

61,0

63,0

65,0

125 150 175PLF(

%) o

f Coa

l bas

ed P

ower

Pla

nts

RES Installed Capacity (GW)

PLF % vs RES Installed Capacity by 2022 High Hydro Scenario(15,330 MW)

6.18% 7.18% 8.18%

CONCLUSIONS

1. The share of energy generation from Renewable energy sources is going to increase from 7 % at present to around 20% of the total energy requirement by the year 2022.

2. However, this increase in generation from RE sources will lead to conventional generating plants to be more flexible to cater to the increased ramping requirements due to variability associated with RE generating sources.

3. Advanced forecasting techniques need to be adopted to accurately predict the output generation from Renewable Energy sources.

4. The Transmission system needs to be strengthened to evacuate renewable energy from rich RE states to other parts of the country.