implementation of land use change in · pdf file• applicable for pas 2050-1, ghg...

IMPLEMENTATIONOFLANDUSECHANGEINECOINVENT

LCADISCUSSIONFORUM3.NOVEMBER2017

Incollaborationwith

Jü[email protected]

01

LANDUSECHANGE:WHYISITRELEVANT?

Landusechange

CO2

CO2CO2

CO2

Landusechange,accountsfor

nearly20%ofGHGemissions(IPCC,2007).

4

LUCconsideration inexisting databases – today and10years ago

WFLDB3.3

Ecoinvent3.4

Gabi2017

AgriFootprint 3.0

Agri-BALYSE1.2

5

Implementationof LUCinecoinvent

V2.2- 2007 V3.2- 2013 V3.3- 2016Scope Soybean(BR)

Palmfruitbunch(MY)

Soybean(BR),

Sugarcane(BR)

Palmfruitbunch(MY)

Allcropswithanon-Swissgeography.

Method Noconsistentmethodology

Consistentmethodology–Nemecek etal (2016)

Consistentmethodology–WFLDBMethod(QuantisadaptedversionoftheBlonk tool)

Carbonpoolsconsidered

AboveGroundBiomass(AGB)

AGB,BGB,DOM,SOC(inmineralandorganic(peat)soils)

AGB,BGB,DOM,SOCinmineralandorganic(peat)soils

Landtransformationsfrom

Primary(rain)foresttoarableland

Primaryforest,secondaryforest,shrublandandgrasslandtoarableland.

Primaryforest,secondaryforest,grasslandandperenniallandtoarableland (annualcropandperennialcrop)

è Improvementinconsistencyandcompleteness

02

LANDUSECHANGE:MODELINGPRINCIPLES

7

WFLDBLUCtool (Quantismodified version of the Blonk tool)

• Excel-basedtool• Providesapredefinedwayof

calculatingcountry-centricGHGemissionsfromLUC.

• ApplicableforPAS2050-1,GHGProtocol,ENVIFOODprotocol,EU-PEFguide,andFAOLEAPguidelines.

WFLDBLUCtool

WFLDBLUCtool

Country

CropFAOSTAT

EuropeanSoil Portal

IPCC2006tier 1data

Transformedland surface

LUCGHGemissions

…inWFLDBmodeling structure

Inputfields

Agriculturalstatistics

Output

Computation

8

1. Howmuch ofwhichtype ofLUCisattributedtoagivencropinany country?(cropspecificorsharedresponsibility)

2. Carboninventoryfor:§ Transformation(VEG)§ Occupation(SOC)

Capabilities(Quantismodifiedversion)

WFLDBLUCtool

Country

CropFAOSTAT

EuropeanSoil Portal

IPCC2006tier 1data

Transformedland surface

LUCGHGemissions

…inWFLDBmodeling structure

Inputfields

Agriculturalstatistics

Output

Computation

WFLDBLUCtool

9

Shared-responsibilityapproach

Crop-specificapproach

Landusechangeisallocatedtoallcropswhichoccupyareaè allcropswhichoccupyareacarrytheburdenoflandusechange,evenwhendecreasing.

Landusechangeisallocatedtoallcropswhichincreasedtheirareaè onlythecropswithincreasingareacarrytheburdenoflandusechange.

TwoapproachestoallocatedLUC

10


+20years(2009-2011)

OilPalm

Rubber

Forest

30ha

20ha

50ha

45ha

15ha

40ha

+15ha

-5ha

-10ha

Referencestate(1990-1992)

Forest,50ha

Oilpalm,30ha

Countryarea

Forest,40ha

Rubber,20ha

Rubber,15ha

Oilpalm,45ha

t

11


OilPalm

Rubber

Forest

30ha

20ha

50ha

45ha

15ha

40ha

+15ha

-5ha

-10ha

Oil palm

Proportionofpalmoilareawhichexpandedduringtimeperiod

15/45=1/3

LUCpatternsoftheexpandedarea

1/3

2/3

t

12

Land transformation

CO2 N2O CH4 PM ....

Landtransformationsareconsideredfor5typesofland:

Changesinabovegroundbiomass,belowgroundbiomassanddeadorganicmatterareconsidered.

Land occupation

CO2 N2O CH4

Changesinthesoilorganiccarboninmineralandorganic(peat) soilsareconsidered.

Emissions


Allocation of LUC

AllocationoftheLUCemissions(transformation&occupation)tothecrop.

WedistinguishbetweentwoLUCeffects

Land transformation

CO2 N2O CH4 PM ....

Landtransformationsareconsideredfor5typesofland:

Changesinabovegroundbiomass,belowgroundbiomassanddeadorganicmatterareconsidered.

Land occupation

CO2 N2O CH4

Changesinthesoilorganiccarboninmineralandorganic(peat) soilsareconsidered.

Emissions


Allocation of LUC

AllocationoftheLUCemissions(transformation&occupation)tothecrop.

03

LANDUSECHANGEIMPLEMENTATIONINECOINVENT3.4

14

Structure

Crop-specificattributionofLUCpatterns

Country-specificLUCpatternpercroptype

AttributionofLUC

15

Landtransforming activities produce land tenure

• Landtransformingactivities• modelstheinterventionsassociatedwithandcausedby

thetransformationofland• producelandtenure(thecommoncurrencytoaccountfor

theproductivityofland)

Land usechange, annual

crop [BR]

Transformation to, perennial land

Transformation to, perennial landTransformation to,

perennial landTransformation to, perennial land

Clear-cutting, primary forest to arable land,

annual crop [BR]M

Soybeanproduction

[BR]

M

16

Landtransformation inventories

From… From… …toperennial…toannual

17

Landtransformation inventories – annual crop

• Clear-cuttingofprimaryandsecondaryforest,• 80%ofAGB,BGBandDOMis

assumedtodecay.• 20%ofthevegetationisassumedto

beburned.• interventionsrequiredforthe

clearingofthearea—chainsawandbuildingmachines.

• Grassland• 100%ofthecarboninvegetationto

atmosphereasCO2.• Perennialcrop:

• 100%ofthecarboninvegetationtoatmosphereasCO2.

• Annualcrop:• Zero

From… …toannual

18

Landtenure market model the country- specific LUCmix

• Localmarketforlandtenure• mixes landtenureflows

accordingtotheirrelevance• generatesacountry-specific

landtenuremix


crop [BR]





annual crop [BR]M

Soybeanproduction

[BR]

M

19

Landuse change adds occupation impacts

• Landusechangeactivity• inputisthecountry-specificlandtenure

marketmixè amortization happenshere

• addsoccupationimpactsè lossinSOCandSOCpeat

• outputrepresentscountry-specificlandusechangeonaperhectarebasis


crop [BR]





annual crop [BR]M

Soybeanproduction

[BR]

M

20

Local market for land use change

• Localmarketforlandusechange• linktointegrateLUCtoallcropsofrelevance


crop [BR]





annual crop [BR]M

Soybeanproduction

[BR]

M

21

Expansionof crop activity determines attribution

Attributionoflandusechange• Whatwastheexpansionofthecropduringthe

timeperiodunderconsideration?• Expansion/Currentarea

• 12millionha/23millionha=52%


crop [BR]





annual crop [BR]M

Soybeanproduction

[BR]

M

22

LUCmodeling inecoinvent

• ConsistentconsiderationofLUCforallcropsonaglobalscale• allcropslinktotheircountryspecific“Marketforlandusechange”(if

theycauseanyLUCaccordingtoQuantisBlonk tool)• morespecificdatacanbeconsideredè OilpalmMY

• Country-centric• propagationofLUCthroughoutdifferentcountriesarenotconsidered• morerapeseedinSwitzerlandè lessbarleyèmoredemandfor

BarleyinCanada?

• Modular:easyto• addnewtransformingactivities• traceLCIAcontributionstothecausingLUCactivities• excludefromthecalculationsor• adapttoownneeds

2304

LANDUSECHANGECONSIDERATIONINEXISTINGLCIDATABASES

24

LUCinexisting databases

WFLDB3.3

Ecoinvent3.4

Gabi2017

AgriFootprint 3.0

Agri-BALYSE1.2

2505

CONCLUSIONS

26

Conclusion

• LUCisakeyissueè highlyrelevant,highlyuncertain!• Manyvaluechoices

• timeperiodunderconsideration(20y)andamortization(20y)• distributionofemissionthroughtime• focusoncropsandignoreotherdrivers• focusonthepast

• Furtherrefinementandextensionisneeded• integrationofforestdegradationandcountry-specificland

management• integrationofotherdrivers(soildepletion,forestry,cattlefarming,etc.)• nopropagationofLUCacrosscountryboundariesè iLUC

• …and already ongoing!• SRIproject,Brazilè regionaldisaggregation(tostate-level)and

considerationofcattlefarmingadriver

27

THANKSALOTFORYOURATTENTION!

QUESTIONS?

[email protected]

THANKSTOVincentRossi,SebastienHumbert,XavierBengoa,&SimonGmuender

28

Consideredcarbonpools

AbovegroundBiomass(AGB)

BelowgroundBiomass(BGB)

Litter

DeadWood(DW)

SoilOrganicCarbon(SOC)

29

Generalconcept:Examples with realland tenure flows

Land tenure, in kg C NPP

Land use change, [MY]

Land transformation, primary forest to arable land,

[MY]

M1 [ha]10’220/20=511

[kg C NPP]511/1.022=500 [m2]

511[kg C NPP]


Land use change, [DE]

Land transformation,

grassland to arable land,

[DE]

M1 [ha]5’510/20=276

[kg C NPP]276/0.551=500 [m2]

276[kg C NPP]


Land use change, [BR]

Land transformation, primary forest to arable land,

[BR]

M1 [ha]8’110/20=406

[kg C NPP]406/0.811=500 [m2]

406[kg C NPP]

implementation of land use change in · pdf file• applicable for pas 2050-1, ghg...

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