improving agricultural production, rural livelihoods, and...

Improving Agricultural Production, Rural

Livelihoods, and Food Security

Background paper for World Bank Report:

Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries

Authorship

Lead Authors:

Rachael McDonnell &

Shoaib Ismail

International Center for Biosaline Agriculture

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

A working outline of this paper can be found in Annex 1

Disclaimer

This text is not for citation. The statements, views, interpretations and findings

expressed in this draft and in all contents herein are entirely those of the authors. They

do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or

the countries they represent.

Improving Agricultural Production, Rural Livelihoods, and Food Security NOT FOR CITATION

2

Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 3 Current agricultural production systems, rural livelihoods, and food security ................... 4 Impacts of climate change on agricultural production, rural livelihoods and food security9

Details from studies in the region ..................................................................................... 16 Ideas going forward .......................................................................................................... 19 Boxes................................................................................................................................. 21 Annex 1: Preliminary Outline of Chapter ......................................................................... 24

Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 25

Introduction 1

2

Both global and regional climate change modeling exercises have highlighted that 3

MENA is considered one of the most vulnerable region to climate change impacts on 4

account of its water scarcity (Giorgi, 2006, IPCC, 2007; Evans, 2010). Model results 5

suggest that the region will largely become hotter and drier with greater inter-seasonal 6

and inter-annual variability resulting in less water runoff (between 20 -30%) (Milly et al, 7

2005). This will have both direct and indirect impacts on rural economies, agricultural 8

production and food security. The recent profound political changes in the MENA region 9

have been linked to a number of variables including volatile food prices. Given the 10

dependence on food imports in some countries, and exports in others, any changes in 11

climate are likely to have major impacts on their communities and economies. 12

13

Over the last 30 years there has been a steady increase in agricultural productivity both 14

global and in the Middle East North Africa region over the last 30 years, giving average 15

grain yields rising from .. .to .. has resulted from many changes in crop and water 16

management. This has lead to generally improved conditions for much of the population. 17

However these advances may be checked by any changes in precipitation and 18

temperature. There is a growing perception of food insecurity in this region resulting 19

from the changing water scarcity in with many structural changes such as in populations 20

and economics. 21

22

The economy of rural communities is based mainly on the harnessing of natural resources, 23

in particular water and land, and their products and services. Many of farming units are 24

based on low levels of development with little technological input to their production 25

systems. This makes them vulnerable to any exposure to climate and environmental 26

variability, often with little capacity for the system to adjust to change (World Bank, 27

2009). The most at risk are the rural landless and small and marginal farmers. Rural 28

livelihoods are intrinsically linked to water availability and use with the poorest relying 29

heavily on rainfed production systems that are particularly susceptible to droughts, floods, 30


4

and shifts in markets and prices. The Arab Human Development report (UNDP, 2009a) 31

highlights both the threats from over-exploitation and variability of water and land, and 32

from food insecurity. Large farmers are buffered from price shocks because they are 33

likely to benefit from the higher agricultural produce prices. 34

35

Food security is defined by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) (2002) as a 36

“situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic 37

access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food 38

preferences for an active and healthy life.” It combines four key dimensions - food 39

production and availability, stability of food supplies, access to food, food utilization and 40

(Schmidhuber and Tubiello (2007). Climate change has the potential to disrupt all four of 41

these dimensions in the MENA region, either directly or through socio-economic, trade 42

and stock flows and policies and regulations. 43

44

Food production/availability is critically dependent on local temperature and precipitation 45

conditions and any short-term variability is a major risk factor for both production and 46

rural communities. Changes require farmers to adapt their practices and this adaptation 47

requires resource that could be used for other areas and activities. Whilst many of the 48

countries in the MENA region are heavily dependent on food imports they span a wide 49

range of development situations ranging from low income, through those in middle-50

income range to the high range (the oil rich states). The food consumption levels are 51

generally in the upper middle range and (kcal/person/day) (FAO, 2008). 52

53

54

Current agricultural production systems, rural livelihoods, 55

and food security 56

57

Agricultural Production Systems 58

59


5

Dominance of evaporation over precipitation and the impacts on soil moisture - most of 60

the region lacks access to surface water, greatly influencing both water and agricultural 61

management systems. 62

63

Crop production 64

Rainfed production systems 65

Haddad et al (2011) state that rainfed irrigation accounts for two-thirds of the region‟s 66

cropland, and the bulk of its food staples. 67

68

Irrigated production systems 69

Small-scale – Traditional Oasis systems – both natural and human constructed. Problem 70

of supporting such systems using pumped groundwater. Old falaj system is less 71

renewable these days because of over-pumping and declining water table levels. 72

73

Large-scale crop production (agribusiness based on mechanized and modified 74

environments high input of chemicals etc). Some production only for local/regional 75

markets. Others rely on exporting value crops into high-paying countries such as in 76

Europe. There is already a growing disconnect between production activities based on 77

rainfall patterns and amounts. Many of these systems are already largely independent of 78

the constraints of rainfall. 79

80

Livestock production 81

82

Rainfed systems account for almost all of the rangelands in the MENA region (Haddad et 83

al, 2011). 84

85

Small-scale -pastoralist or oasis – often nomadic lifestyle based on traditional rangelands 86

and natural patterns of rainfall and temperature. 87

88


6

Large- scale (agribusiness based on mechanized and modified environments). Livestock 89

is increasingly fed on industrial food sub-products. Some production for local/regional 90

markets. Already becoming less dependent on the constraints of rainfall. 91

92

93

Rural livelihoods 94

95

The population in the MENA region is more urbanized than in other developing areas 96

resulting from both natural and historical variables. Yet this urbanization has not been 97

accompanied by a shift of labour from agriculture to services and manufacturing that you 98

would expect. Whilst agriculture has lost its share of value added, rural areas remain 99

centers of low-productivity employment and poverty (World Bank 2010). Rural poverty 100

rates are greater than urban poverty in the MENA countries and often greater than 20% 101

(Iqbal, 2006). 102

103

The rural households tend to rely heavily on climate-sensitive resources and activities 104

such as local water supplies, arable farming, livestock husbandry and fuelwood collection. 105

Small-holder farmers face many risks including those related to weather and markets 106

(Alwang and Norton, 2011). Whilst agriculture is the main activity household income and 107

resources can be enhanced by wood and non-wood forest products from the low-cover 108

forests, and scattered trees and shrubs where they exist and this income is important in 109

countries such as Morocco, Lebanon … (FAO, 2010). For some rural communities the 110

lifestyle is nomadic, with and inordinate amount of time spent by women and children 111

fetching water and fuel wood, which has a direct impact on primary education and 112

healthcare. 113

114

The farming is often subsistence sometimes occupying marginal lands, and in many 115

MENA countries depends heavily on rainfed production systems that are particularly 116

susceptible to droughts, floods and shifts in markets and prices. For both rainfed and 117

irrigated agriculture, any variations in space and time of precipitation can bring great 118

hardship as the recent drought in Syria unfortunately exemplifies (See Box xx). 119


7

Variability in rainfall and/or temperature affects soil moisture deficits, and brings crop 120

damage and disease thus increasing the risks to already vulnerable communities. 121

Particularly important are the impacts of changes in evaporation/evapotranspiration on 122

soil moisture availability in rainfed systems. 123

124

In a recent study (World Bank, 2010) it was found that rural poverty could also be 125

explained through a number of more socially related variables that are not just the result 126

of the rural existence. For example although Upper Egypt has only 40% of the population 127

of Egypt, it accounts for 60% of its poverty and 80% of its severe poverty. This is not a 128

result of economic activities alone, but because in this area there is a high „demographic 129

dependency‟ (ratio of dependents to people of working age). In MENA rural areas the 130

decline in fertility rate as been less than in urban areas so ensuring a higher demographc 131

dependency. 132

133

A further influence on MENA poverty levels is a household‟s education level (World 134

Bank, 2010) and in rural areas problems of access to schools is exacerbated by the nature 135

of the often remote and transitory existence. 136

137

138

Food security 139

140

Food security can be analysed at a regional, national and local level 141

142

The definition and variables that affect food security vary enormously in the MENA 143

region. None of the countries are net food exporters, but the degree of dependency on 144

imports is highly variable. Taken as a region, it is shown to be the least food secure in the 145

world with a aggregated dependency of over 55% for its need on food imports. This value 146

masks many variations. The UAE, like many of its GCC neighbours relies heavily on 147

imports to meet its food needs. Around 85% of its food good and nearly all of its basic 148

staples are imported because of the climatic constraints within the country to grow food 149

without heavily exploiting non-renewable groundwater. Furthermore the rapid growth in 150


8

the country‟s population from both natural increase and inward migration will ensure this 151

dependency on imports will grow. 152

153

The most important cereals in the MENA region are wheat, maize and barley. The 154

average share of imports in total domestic consumption of maize during 1999-2004 155

ranged from nearly 100% in Jordan, Lebanon and the GCC countries, to 40% in Egypt 156

(UNDP, 2009b). Meanwhile the average shares of imports in total domestic consumption 157

during the same period ranged from 95% for barley in Jordan and the GCC to around 5% 158

in Jordan and Yemen, and around 92% for wheat in Jordan and Yemen, to 2% in Syria. 159

160

In recent years, a number of countries have moved away from a strategy aimed at self-161

sufficiency to one aimed at securing many food commodities through international trade. 162

163

At a more local level, the general values given above mask areas of great food insecurity 164

particularly in rural areas, resulting from a plethora of factors including unequal power 165

relations affecting access to land and water resources, access to markets, access to credit, 166

and limited resources to sustain households and communities through price spikes and 167

other stresses. 168

169

Food insecurity can bring opportunities for farmers within a country if the right policy 170

support is in place. In a recent analysis El-Dukheri et al (2011) examined 1000 rural 171

household in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Syria and Yemen, government responses to 172

price spikes, price transmission from international to local markets, and the farmer‟s 173

production decisions in response to these changes. The ability of smallholder farmers to 174

benefit from higher domestic prices was limited by various factors; drought, higher input 175

prices (especially fertilizer), and the timing of the price increases in relation to the crop 176

cycle. 177

178

Recent trends by oil-producing nations to make international investment in developing 179

country agriculture (see for example Hallam, 20110). These initiatives are resource 180

seeking rather than market-seeking and involved acquisition of land and actual 181


9

production rather than looser forms of joint venture. Investing countries appear to be 182

driven by food security concerns, including price volatility and market risks faced by 183

large food importers. Host countries have been equally keen to attract investment for 184

various potential benefits. 185

186

Recent food price shocks - natural environmental variability in food producing countries 187

affect world market prices, but in the Arab world structural factors such as population 188

and income growth and biofuel demand (Lampietti et al, 2011) 189

190

Impacts of climate change on agricultural production, rural 191

livelihoods and food security 192

193

Studies of long-term climate records for the MENA region have shown that there are 194

already some trends in temperatures. Zhang et al (2005) have shown that across much of 195

the Middle East, using climate information for the period 1950 – 2003, there have been 196

increasing temperatures but no clear trends in precipitation. 197

198

Important to consider the differences between weather and climate. Both impact rural 199

livelihoods, agricultural production and food security in different ways 200

201

Primary Impacts of importance to rural livelihoods, agriculture, and food security 202

This will be finalized once coordinated with Chapter 2: 203

204

Changing precipitation patterns – how much, when and where: need to understand 205

changes in storm track. A poleward shift of Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the 206

Mediterranean storm track are predicted (Bengtsson et al, 2006; Lionello and Giorgi 207

2007; and Black et al 2010) 208

. 209

Preliminary climate change and climate variability scenarios for the Arab region indicate 210

that rainfall in the region will become intense and dry spells will become more 211


10

pronounced. The zone of severely reduced rainfall in the Intergovernmental Panel on 212

Climate Change (IPCC) Report (2007a) projections extends throughout the 213

Mediterranean region and northern Sahara and inland from the Atlantic coast. 214

Evans (2010) using the MM5 regional modeling system for first and last five years of 21st 215

century found that the seasonal change in precipitation show the largest decreases in the 216

Eastern Mediterranean. The largest increases will be over Saudi Arabia during summer 217

and autumn associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moving 218

northwards. 219

220

Changing extreme precipitation events: 221

Droughts and floods: Climate change is expected to exacerbate the intensity and 222

frequency of such extreme weather events (IPCC 2007b) – using the Palmer Drought 223

Severity Index (PDSI) shows a large drying trend over the Northern Hemisphere, 224

particularly over north Africa. 225

Some North Africa countries (Algeria and Morocco), which are projected to face drier 226

conditions overall, have experienced many flash floods in recent years (Elasha, 2010). 227

228

Changing temperatures – how much, when, where: - length of growing season; start and 229

finish of growing season 230

Evans (2010) using the MM5/CCSM regional model for first and last five years of 21st 231

century found that temperature was not predicted to increase uniformly across the Middle 232

East with much of the sptial distribution explained by changes in moisture availability. 233

Winter demonstrates the smallest changes with most of the temperatures predicted to rise 234

by 2 degrees. The greatest predicted temperatures are along the Eastern Mediterranean 235

and Red Sea coasts. 236

237

Evans (2010) found the largest temperatures increases in the summer with an increase of 238

around 6 degrees being common. The largest projected temperature increases are over the 239

Iranian Plateau of around 10 degrees. 240

241

242


11

Kunstmann et al (2007) using dynamic downscaling of ECHAM4 time slices (1961-1990 243

and 2070-2099) of global climate scenario B2 and subsequent hydrological modeling for 244

the Middle East and the Upper Jordan catchment. The results showed a mean annual 245

temperature increase of 4.5°C and 25% decrease in mean annual precipitation in the 246

mountainous part of the Upper Jordan catchment. 247

248

249

Changing extreme temperatures – how much, where and when: 250

251

Secondary Impacts of importance to rural livelihoods, agriculture, and food security 252

253

Need to be cross-correlated with Chapter 3 on impact on water resources. 254

255

Changing evaportranspiration; how much, when, where. Increases and decreases affect 256

soil moisture deficit and the amount of water available for plant growth – whether crops 257

or pasture/forage. 258

259

Changing surface water flow; how much, when, where and of what quality (salinity, 260

drainage water returns). Predictions are that flows 261

262

Changing groundwater recharge: how much, when, where and of what quality – changes 263

in natural and human induced conditions (increase pesticide, fertilizer use etc) 264

The anticipated increase in surface temperature and reduction in rainfall will result in a 265

30-70% reduction in recharge (Dolle and Florke, 2005). Influences how much is 266

sustainably available for irrigation over the short and medium term and so what crops and 267

management practices are possible. 268

269

Kunstmann et al (2007) using dynamic downscaling of ECHAM4 time slices (1961-1990 270

and 2070-2099) of global climate scenario B2 and subsequent hydrological modeling for 271

the Middle East and the Upper Jordan catchment. Results indicated that total runoff at the 272


12

outlet of the catchment would decrease by 23% accompanied by a significant decrease in 273

groundwater recharge. 274

275

Changing soil nature: where and how much - moisture, change in carbon content, 276

change in salinity, changes in 277

Given the high input of water use and the limited naturally occurring soil water, any 278

changes to precipitation patterns 279

280

Changes from sea-level rise – poses a severe threat to low-lying coastal areas under a 281

temperature increase of 1-3°C. Particularly prone are agriculture land in Kuwait, Qatar, 282

Libya, Tunisia, Bahrain and Egypt (see chapter xx). In the latter the extremely low 283

elevation of arable cropland in the Nile Delta is particularly prone as most of the 50km 284

wide land strip along the river is less than 2m above sea-level and is protected from 285

flooding by only a 1 – 10km wide coastal sand belt (El-Raey 2009; Elasha, 2010). If this 286

is eroded the impacts would be serious. 287

288

289

General impacts on agricultural production, rural livelihoods and food security in the 290

MENA region – given in table below291


13

292

293

294

Impact of increase in mean temperature (Source: adapted from FAO, 2008)

Impact on food system

assets


activities

Impact on food security

outcomes

Impact on other human well-being

outcomes

Production assets:

Trend changes in suitability of

land for crop and livestock

production

Gradual loss of biodiversity

Trend changes in vectors and

natural habits of plant and

animal pests and diseases

Storage, transport and

marketing infrastructure:

Strain on electricity grids, air

conditioning and cold storage

capacity

Producing food:

Immediate crop and livestock

losses due to heat and water

stress

Lower yields from dairy

animals

Reduced labor productivity

due to heat stress

Trend impacts on uncertain

conditions on location,

availability of water and

adoption of new cropping

patterns by farmers

Storing and processing food:

Upgrade in cooling and

storage facilities required to

maintain food quality at

higher temperatures

Food availability (production,

distribution and exchange):

Reduced production of food

crops and livestock products in

affected areas

Local losses could have

temporary effect on local

markets

Reduction in global supplies

likely to cause market prices to

rise

Food accessibility (allocation,

affordability, preference)

Impacts on incomes, prices and

affordability uncertain

Changes in preference

uncertain

Livelihood

Trend changes in vectors and natural

habitats of pests and disease that affect

human health and productivity

Social values and behaviors:

Acceptance of a greater degree of risk and

uncertainty as a natural condition of life

Migration to urban areas for more certain

income

295

296


14

297

Gradual changes in precipitation (increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and drought) (Source: adapted

from FAO, 2008)

Impact on food system assets Impact on food system

activities


outcomes


outcomes

Production assets:

Loss of perennial crops and

vegetative cover of grazing and

fuel wood due to water stress and

increasing fire hazard

Loss of livestock due to water

stress and lack of feed

Loss of productive asses due to

hardship sales

Changes in rates of soil moisture,

retention and aquifer recharge

Trend changes in suitability of land

for crop and livestock production

Trend changes in vectors and

natural habitats of plant and

animal pests and diseases

Food preparation assets:

Lack of water for cooking

Lack of vegetation for fuel

Producing food:

Immediate crop and

livestock losses due and

water stress

Trend declines in yields

Changes in irrigation

requirements

Storing and processing

food:

Less need for chemical to

preserve stored grain

Scarcity of water for food

processing

Distributing food:

Easier movement of

vehicles on dry land



Declines in production

Wild foods less available

Pressure on grain reserves

Decrease in food exports/increase

in food imports

Increase need for food aid



Local increase in food prices in

drought-affect areas

Loss of farm income and non-farm

employment

Preferred foods not available or too

costly

Food system stability:

Great instability of food supply,

food prices and agriculturally-based

incomes

Livelihood

Decline in expenditure for other basin

needs – clothing, shelter, health,

education

Trend changes in vectors and natural

habitats of pest and diseases that affect

human health and productivity


Food scarcity strain ability to meet

reciprocal food-sharing obligations


15

298

Gradual change in precipitation (changes in timing, location and amounts of rain) (Source: adapted from FAO, 2008)


assets


activities


outcomes


outcomes

Production assets:

Changes in rates of soil

moisture retention and

aquifer recharge

Increase in proportion of

population expose to water

scarcities

Changes in the locations

where investment in

irrigation is economically

feasible

Trend changes in suitability

of land for crop and

livestock production

Trend changes in vectors

and natural habitats of plan

and animal pests and

diseases

Producing food:

Trend impacts on yields

uncertain, conditional on

location, availability of

water and adoption of new

cropping patterns by

farmers

Consuming food:

Changes in consumption

patterns may occur, in

response to changes in

relative prices



Some local losses virtually

certain, but their likely

geographic distribution

within MENA is not known



Any increases in the costing

of water may cause food

prices to rise

Greater instability of food

supply, food prices and

agriculturally-based

incomes is likely

Livelihood

Changes in geographic distribution of

vulnerability


Acceptance of a greater degree of risk

and uncertainty as a natural condition

of life


16

299

Details from studies in the region 300

301

Crop production 302 Rain fed production – 303

The limited soil moisture availability resulting from an increased length of the dry season, 304

and increasing evapotranspiration will not support the production systems of the current 305

systems. Evans 2009, using a regional climate change model and the A2 SRES scenario, 306

estimated for the Middle East region alone there would be decrease of over 170 000km2 307

in viable rainfed agriculture land by the late-century. This will be exacerbated during the 308

predicted increased number and length of periods of drought. 309

310

Irrigation agriculture is primarily dependent on groundwater. In many countries this is a 311

fossil reserve and is the key strategic reserve underpinning their water security. IPCC 312

report suggests that according to four models, groundwater recharge will decrease 313

dramatically, by more than 70% - between now and 2050 along the southern 314

Mediterranean. This will have potential great impact on the ability of many countries to 315

irrigate their crop production systems – both traditional oasis and small- and large-scale 316

irrigated systems. 317

318

In North Africa the current and growing reliance on irrigation is likely to be increased 319

under climate change leading to a greater disconnect with precipitation. But this brings 320

with it a number of risks a recent Sahara and Sahel Observatory (OSS) report highlighted 321

(2007): 322

In increase in demand for irrigation water with the risk of conflicts between farmers 323

over water rights 324

A growth in demand for fertilizers with increased risk of groundwater pollution 325

Lack of treatment of grey water 326

Water shortages resulting from exhaustion or pollution of groundwater 327

Increased pressure on aquifers and the risks if transnational conflicts over water 328

rights. 329

330

331

Due to complex interaction of many factors, crop growing may become unsustainable in 332

some areas. Crop models indicate that maize yields in North Africa could fall by between 333

15 and 25% with an 3°C rise in temperature although the CO2 fertilization effect may 334

reduce these impacts. Yield losses might be expected to affect agricultural productivity. 335

(FAO, 2009) 336

337

Predictions of the impacts and the value of change have been generated for a number of 338

countries by Cline (2007) using different modeling techniques. Table x highlights both 339

the predicted losses and gains for a selection of countries. 340

341

342

343


17

Country Farm

area

(1000

ha)

Output

per ha

(2003

dollars)

Output

(millions

of 2003

dollars)

Impact without carbon fertilization Preferred estimates Change in

Output(millions of 2003

dollars)

Ricardian Crop models Without

CO2

fertilization

(%)

Basis With CO2

fertilization

(%)

Without

carbon

fertilization

With

carbon

fertilization Estimate

(%)

Basis Estimate

(%)

Grouping

Algeria 8,459 787 6,653 -46.7 2 -25.3 5 -36.0 1 -26.4 -2,394 -1,756

Egypt 3,751 3,516 13, 188 53.5 2 -30.9 11 11.3 1 28.00 1,494 3,696

Iraq 4,591 370 1,697 -67.8 1 -27.9 25 -41.1 2 -32.2 -697 -547

Morocco 9,283 801 7,434 -51.0 2 -27.0 4 -39.0 1 -29.9 -2,899 -2,219

Saudi

Arabia

4046 2654 10737 -9.8 1 -27.9 25 -21.9 2 -10.2 -2,351 -1,093

Table Preferrd estimates of impact of baseline global warming by the 2080s on agriculture – by country 344

Source: Cline, 2007. 345


18

Livestock production 346 347

Traditional Rangeland Production –. These areas are likely to be extremely vulnerable 348

as they are located mostly in marginal areas (Elasha, 2010), with less available soil 349

moisture, leading to degraded land. Decline in available moisture will greatly affect 350

nomadic system over a wide area. Evans (2009) predicted that by the end of the 21st 351

century the increase in the length of the dry season will reduce the length of time that 352

rangelands can be grazed. This will be particularly pronounced in large parts of Syria and 353

Iraq where is it predicted that there will be a significant increase in the length of the dry 354

season by around 2 months. This will increase the need for supplementary water and 355

feedstuffs or decreasing the herd sizes. 356

357

In the more temperate areas within the region, temperature increase may lead to an 358

increase in pasture production, with corresponding increase in livestock production. The 359

need to house livestock will benefit from warmer winters, particularly in the higher 360

altitudes although greater summer heat stress though is likely to have a negative effects. 361

362

Livestock pest and disease distribution and their transmission patterns will be altered, but 363

this is relatively unknown. 364

365 366


19

367

368

369

Sea level rise and inundation – World Bank Report Dasgupta et al (2007). Using GIS 370

software to overlay the agricultural extent data set (GAE-2) from IFPRI with inundation 371

zones from 1-5 m based on coastal terrain models (CIAT SRTM 90 meters DEM data). 372

For the MENA area 373

374

Inundation

height

1m 2m 3m 4m 5m

% of total

area

1.15 1.70 2.26 2.77 3.23

Egypt 12.5% 35%

375

At a more disaggregated basis, the countries likely to be most affected are Qatar (most 376

significant impact), UAE and Kuwait. The largest agriculturally engaged population to be 377

impacted is in Egypt in the rich agricultural area of the Nile Delta where a 1 m inundation 378

would affect 10% of population and 5m affecting 20%. Agricultural – severe disruptions. 379

380

Increased salinization of aquifers and soils. 381

382

383

Ideas going forward 384

385

The challenge is in managing the risks involved and key concepts involved are:– 386

vulnerability; resilience, robustness, sustainability, regime shift, threshold and feedback 387

(Cuming, 2011). The same changes in climate variables can bring different consequences 388

for different areas – with the most vulnerable groups the least able to develop risk 389

management strategies. In addition to climate changes, the MENA region has many 390

other challenges that will exacerbate the impacts on agricultural production, rural 391

livelihoods and food security. Predicted increases in population in both the rural and 392

urban areas, changes in per capita consumption food patterns and quantities, water 393

scarcity etc will all impact in different ways to (add table for all the countries making up 394

the MENA). In addition many of the region‟s irrigation systems are already under 395

considerable environmental strain due to salinity, water logging, or overexploitation of 396

groundwater and there is little scope for further exploitation. 397

398

399

From the IPCC (2007) adaptation may be viewed as anticipatory or reactive. Anticipatory 400

adaptation strategies are implemented before the initial impact occurs – so we need to 401

know information on what is likely to occur. Reactive adaptation is less well-thought out 402

and is designed and implemented in response to initial impacts. For example people start 403

using natural resources before they are mature – immature woodland, plants and animals 404

(OSS, 2007) etc. 405

406


20

407

Need to consider programs at a number of different levels: 408

409

A. local – capabilities and practices developed and implemented by societies to 410

survive over time, particularly during extremes droughts/floods 411

B. national - governments need to have in place supporting policy and infrastructure 412

(economic and physical) 413

C. global trading regimes - to ensure that changes in comparative advantage translate 414

into unimpeded trade flows to balance world supply and demand. 415

416

417

Agricultural production 418 1) New plant species and varieties – drought and salt tolerant – for both crop and 419

forage production 420

2) Using more marginal quality water – saline and treated wastewater 421

3) More aggressive support for increasing water productivity – field conservation 422

methods, supplemental irrigation, water harvesting, groundwater irrigation, 423

drainage 424

4) Greater investment in irrigation for intensive agriculture where water resource 425

permit – balancing rainfed and irrigated agriculture portfolio 426

5) Management of domestic and agricultural water to maximize benefits of 427

precipitation – check dams, rainwater harvesting stone bunds etc 428

6) Better management of evapotranspiration where possible using protected 429

agriculture 430

7) Managing demand for agricultural water by changing diets and reducing post-431

harvest loss 432

8) Reducing water through trade by importing from countries with higher water 433

productivity 434

9) Greater use of alternative feed sources for livestock such as feed blocks made 435

from crop by-products 436

10) Drought monitoring and forecasting through enhanced information sources 437

11) Reducing water losses in different sectors 438

12) Improving crop productivity – increase yield for volume of water, or reducing 439

water 440

13) Re-allocating water from lower to higher value use in agriculture 441

14) Greater use of alternative fuels for generating electricity use in food processing 442

and distribution 443

444

445

446

Rural Livelihoods 447 The challenges facing smallholder farmers in the Arab region are many and include those 448

relating to weather and markets. 449

450 15) Support of social capital – traditional solidarity based on use of religious and 451

traditional ethical mechanisms. 452


21

16) Broader livelihood agenda to increase assets of the poor. Raise incomes, increase 453

voice and reduce risk and vulnerability from climate- diversification of economic 454

activities 455

17) Support for resettlement schemes from high-risk to low-risk areas 456

18) Use of degraded land for forests using salt-tolerant and drought-tolerant species, 457

etc to increase wood and non-wood products for rural populations and help 458

counteract negative effects of climate change and improve local water cycle. 459

19) Disaster reduction and risk management – early warning, emergency responses 460

and recovery 461

462

463

Food Security 464 465

20) Re-evaluate ideas of food security and international trade. 466

21) Develop multi-sectoral policies that address economic development problems 467

including access for the most food-insecure communities and households. 468

22) The region‟s high dependence on food imports, largely as a consequence of the 469

meager agricultural resources makes it necessary to examine its food and 470

agriculture futures within the context of the global food and agriculture economy. 471

23) International investments in developing country agriculture 472

473

Moving forward – broad-based economic development is central to improvements in 474

human well-being, including sustainable food security and resilience to climate change 475

(Nelson et al, 2010). 476

477

In many ways the amount of water allocated to agriculture and water management 478

choices will determine to a large extent the impacts of climate change on agriculture, 479

food security and rural livelihoods. 480

481

482

483

Boxes 484

485

Box Tunisia Climate Change Impacts 486

Climate projections for Tunisia were constructed on the basis of results of the HadCM3 487

model until 2020 and 2050. The results are modeled on regional scenarios with a 1961-488

1990 base period. This period was one of strong climate variability. Regional impacts 489

The South will be subject o highest increases in annual temperatures and largest 490

reduction in annual rainfall. Decline in average rainfall in both humid and dry years. A 491

stronger increase in the number of dry years 492

493

The Centre of Tunisia will be subject to the highest rise in temperature and reduction in 494

annual rainfall is important. The variability in rainfall will decrease relative to the base 495

period. 496

497


22

The Northern Region will be subject to the smallest increases in annual and seasonal 498

temperatures and the smallest reductions in rainfall. The variability is stable relative to 499

the base period, and there is a slight reduction in the number of extremely dry and 500

extremely humid years. 501

502

Consequences for Agriculture (Tunisian Republic 2007 Ministry for Agriculture and 503

Water Resources GTZ; Nasr et al, 2008.) 504

Results are calculated with respect to policy makers‟ objectives until 2016. With the 505

predicted increase in successive years of drought it is predicted that olive oil production, 506

one of the key crops for Tunisia, will be hit by an average fall of 50% towards 2030 and 507

2050 with the area under non-irrigated cultivation likely to almost halve by 508

approximately 800 000 ha particularly n the centre and south. In contrast during favorable 509

rainfall years, production will increase by 20%. The likely move towards increased 510

irrigation is likely to lead to increasingly stressed non-renewable aquifers (particularly in 511

the South). In the coastal zone of the north production is more likely to be indirectly 512

affected by higher salinity water tables, and saline intrusion. 513

514

Similar patterns of change will be founding livestock production during drought years. 515

The Centre and South will likely see a large fall in numbers of cattle, sheep and goats 516

being carried. Even in the North it is predicted that there will be a fall of 20%. In wetter 517

years the livestock sector will likely benefit from a completive increase in output of 10%. 518

519

Cereal production – during high occurrence of successive years of drought an average fall 520

of 200 000 ha suitable for production in Centre and South. 521

Floods will bring fall in production of 13% in 2016 and 2030 522

Favourable rain years – increase in output of possibly more than 20% 523

524

Box Abu Dhabi (Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, 2009) 525

Abu Dhabi is largest of the seven Emirates that comprise the United Arab Emirates. It has 526

a hyper-arid climate with little surface runoff or groundwater recharge. Its current food 527

production systems reflect a push in the last 25 years to increase self-sufficiency using 528

groundwater as a principal input. As with many MENA countries, currently over 70% of 529

total water consumption is used in agriculture 530

531

Given the relatively extreme temperatures in the summer (>45oC), the growing season is 532

centred on the cooler winter months, which also coincides with the main precipitation 533

events. Any changes in winter climate that include an increase in temperatures and 534

changes in precipitation could lead to even greater exploitation of the strategic 535

groundwater reserve. 536

537

In policy changes focused on improving water management, and using a variety of 538

instruments including, removal of subsidies, targeted subsidies, and bans, as well as 539

extensive farmers‟ extension services, the government is shifting the whole agricultural 540

sector to less water demanding species, or those that are salt of drought tolerant. There 541

has been a short lead-time with the issues and the reasoning for the changes in policy 542

covered extensively in newspapers and other media. This has ensured clarity in direction. 543


23

The change in policy now will ensure the agricultural sector is already better positioned 544

to adapt to climate change. 545

546

547

548

Box Syria Drought Response (United Nations, 2010) 549

A fourth consecutive year of drought has hit north-eastern Syria. According to 550

Government and United Nations estimates, 1.3 million inhabitants are affected and 800 551

000 are severely affected. The impacts of the drought are being exacerbated by the 552

impact of high food and fuel prices, the unrest in the region and the global financial 553

crisis. On average incomes for the drought affected population has decreased by over 554

90% over the past few years and even worse, their assets and sources of livelihood have 555

been lost or irremediably compromised. 556

557

The direct consequences of the drought include decreased food intake, reduced capacity 558

to restore livelihoods, massive internal displacement towards cities and alarming school 559

dropout rates in some areas. Most families have not consumed animal proteins in 560

months. Daily meals have been reduced from three to one for adults and to two for 561

children. Malnutrition is an increasingly serious concern. 562

563

The Drought Response plan is being enacted by a number of different agencies and aimed 564

at three levels of beneficiaries: 565

566

Geographical level targeting: operation being implemented in the agroclimatic zones 567

where there is a high level deterioration of vegetation cover 568

569

Community-level targeting: In agroclimatic zone 5 the most vulnerable among the 570

affected communities are targeted, based on the levels of crop failure, livestock depletion, 571

lack of potable water, remoteness from public services, levels of internal displacement, 572

and school dropout rates. E.G. Food is being distributed through primary schools. 573

574

Household-level targeting: targeted beneficiaries will be the most vulnerable among the 575

rural households of severely affected small-scale farmers and/or herders who lost at least 576

two consecutive rain-fed crops and/or over 80% of their animal stock, with no access to 577

irrigation and not alternative sources of income. Targeted supplementary feeding is aimed 578

at households with children under-five, and pregnant or lactating women. 579

580

581


24

Annex 1: Preliminary Outline of Chapter 582

583 This original chapter outline was developed and agreed upon by the authors in January 2011, at a 584 workshop in Lebanon jointly prepared by the League of Arab States and the World Bank. 585 586

1. Describe current rural livelihoods, production systems and state of agriculture 587 - Nature of production systems and livelihoods (table of types of rural livelihoods) 588 - Current productivity rates of crops grown in the region 589 - Current livelihood assets: including capital (e.g. cultural capital – traditional agricultural methods 590

and how farmers have coped with change), successes and failures. 591 - Shifts in agriculture use (not related to land use) 592 - Impacts on livestock and aquaculture, if any 593 - Current policies and institutional structures 594 - Differential access to different types of assets, leading to different levels of vulnerability 595

596

2. Sources of vulnerability under climate change ("primary and secondary") 597 What does climate change mean in this region? Main impacts that will affect rural livelihoods and 598 food security: increased temperature, increased ETP, changing precipitation patterns, sea water 599 intrusions …. 600

- Increasing water scarcity; potential future impact and identified current instances (e.g. insert box 601 on drought and drought-driven migration in Syria and others) 602

- Water quality and quantity and its impact on agriculture (including the fossil groundwater) – crop 603 water use efficiency, crop tenures as a result of climate change. 604

- Soil degradation and desertification, particularly salinization, change in land use. 605 - Predicted changes in productivity rates 606

607

3. Adaption strategies for coping with climate change and constraints 608 - For rural livelihoods and sustaining agriculture (food security) 609 - Changes in irrigation technology and adoption of new technologies (research and development; 610

investment; education/training); changes in crop selection and cropping patterns; production 611 systems (from food to feed, fuel, biofuel/bioenergy, agricultural residues…. etc.); other potential 612 „alternate‟ agricultural systems (conservation agriculture, agroforestry system, etc). 613

- Case for biosaline agriculture (management of poor quality water) – options and potentials 614 (technological and economical) 615

- New and emerging markets – short and long term impacts. 616 - Prioritizing food security versus improving rural livelihood and the balance between the two. 617 - Collaboration between Arab countries for food production (brief on current virtual water 618

practices and how to minimize and expand regional cooperation). 619 - Constraints related to adaptation process. 620 621

4. Case studies in the context of MENA region 622 623

5. Key messages 624 - Broad 'guidelines' (overarching thoughts about ways to look at the issues on a regional level) 625 - Specific policy recommendations resulting from case studies (related to countries/regions). 626

627

628

629


25

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