IMPROVING MILLERTON LAKE FLOOD CONTROL OPERATIONS TO INCREASE WATER SUPPLYMr. Antonio M. Buelna, P.E.Mr. Douglas DeFlitchMs. Katie LeeOctober 29, 2009

Reclamation Mission Statement

Is to manage, develop, and protect water and related

resources in an environmentally and economically

sound manner in the interest of the American public.

Overview

• Reclamation and Friant History

• Watershed and Supplies

• Millerton Lake Operations– Normal Operations– Flood Operations

• 2006 Operations at Millerton Lake

• Upper San Joaquin Basin Model

• Climate Change in the Upper Basin

• Summary

Bureau of Reclamation History

• June 17, 1902, President Theodore Roosevelt signed the Reclamation Act:– Settlement in the West by providing

water for small-scale family farms.

• August 26, 1937, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt signed the River and Harbor Act:– Authorized the Central Valley Project

for construction including Friant Dam and other public works facilities.

Friant Dam History

• Completed in 1942– Height: 319 feet– Crest Length: 3,488 feet

• Used for Flood Control & Water Conservation to meet demands.– Irrigation– Municipal– Industrial

• Downstream release points:– San Joaquin River– Friant-Kern Canal– Madera Canal

Watershed and Supplies

Dam Stream 1956-2005 [50-year average] 1927-1934 [7-year average]

Shasta Sacramento 6,107,000 AF 3,650,000 AF

Friant San Joaquin 1,836,000 AF 1,040,000 AF

Folsom American 2,719,000 AF 1,560,000 AF

Trinity Trinity 1,398,000 AF 680,000 AF

Table 1: Average Annual Historical Runoff

------ Redding to Bakersfield: 447 miles----- Sacramento to Fresno: 176 miles

Facts:– The Central Valley: 1/3 is Valley Floor, 2/3 are Mountainous– Cascade Range Elevation (North): 14,000 ft– Sierra Nevada Elevation (East): 14,000 ft– Coast Range Elevation (West): 8,000 ft

United States Federal and State Agencies:• Army Corps of Engineers

• Department of Water Resources (DWR)

• National Weather Service

Private Utilities:• Southern California Edison (SCE)

• Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E)

Water Users:• 28 Districts

– Irrigation, Municipal, Industrial

Downstream Interest:• Lower San Joaquin River Levee District

• Land Owners

Millerton Lake OperationsStakeholders

Millerton Lake Operations

Flood Operations – Millerton Lake

• Upper San Joaquin River Floods occurs about 4 out of 10 years.

• Rain Floods: results of intense rainfall in the Sierra Mountains.– Period typically: November to March– January 2, 1997: largest rain flood estimated

maximum daily flow of 77,500 cfs and a 7-day volume of 416,700 AF.

• Snowmelt Floods: results of mountain snowmelt.– Snowmelt floods are sustained, moderate flows for 2 – 3 months,

resulting in large volumes of runoff.– Snowmelt produces ~70% of annual water supply.– 1906: largest snowmelt flood with a maximum daily flow of 26,300 cfs

and a April – July volume of 3.34 million AF.

Flood Operations – Millerton Lake

170,000 AF

390,000 AF

Dead Pool Space = 130,000 AF

520,500 AF

Flood Control Storage Reservation Diagram

Snowmelt

130,000 AF

2006 Operations at Millerton Lake

• March 1, 2006, the San Joaquin River basin hydrologic conditions were at the historic average and the DWR 50 Percent exceedance forecast was 1.27 million AF.

• By early April, storage capacity was at 95 percent.

• First week of April produced 10 inches of rain. – April’s 100-year average

precipitation is 3 inches.

– More than 300 percent of normal conditions.

2006 Operations at Millerton Lake

525,747 AF520,823 AF

522,201 AF

26,000 CFS

2006 Operations - Forecasting Error

50% Forecast vs. Flood Volume 2006 Operations

Upper San Joaquin Basin Model (USAN)• The USAN model was developed to

study re-operation of the upstream reservoirs to enhance the Friant Division water supply.– Improve Friant Division operations

and enhance the water supply.

– Simulates Flood real-time data from 1896 to present.

– Used daily to produce short-term reservoir operations with real-time data (storage, deliveries, releases, etc.)

• USAN uses a daily time step of projected operations applied to historic unimpaired flow data.

Upper San Joaquin Basin Model (USAN)

• USAN limitations:– Operational decisions based on forecasts.

– Millerton Lake February 1st storage plus the February – July unregulated flow forecast to determine the amount of water available for deliveries each year.

– Difficult with flexibility to varying conditions or water years in the volume of water available for diversion during snowmelts of equal volume.

• (Distribution of snowmelt may cause variations in over 100,000 AF)

Climate Change in the Upper Basin• Important effects to Friant

Operations:– Changes in rainfall timing and

intensity– Total snow and ice coverage– A rise in ambient temperature

• Total snow accumulation in the western U.S. has declined over the period 1925-2000.– Higher temperatures threaten to reduce accumulation up to 40%

in the Sierra Nevada.

• Climate change effects the watershed and operations at Friant Dam, increasing the probability of a rain flood and decreasing the magnitude of snowmelt flows.

Precipitation Trends

39.5

41.5

34.5

40.2

42.4

43.9 43.8

48.8

y = 1.5738x + 34.743R2 = 0.8742

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

)

Huntington Lake Precipitation 1920 - 2000

Water Years

Average increase of

+1.55 inches per ten years

2001-2010

2001-2010Prediction:

48.91 inches

2001-20082001-200938.68 in

• The San Joaquin River has two major runoff seasons– November through March is

predominately rain– April through July is predominately

snowmelt• Snowmelt produces ~70% of annual

water supply• Managing Friant Division’s Central Valley Project Water Supply

considers:– The information needed to make operational decisions– The speculative nature of some information (especially early in the

season)– The importance of water supply to the end user– The importance of providing protection from floods

• A mission that requires close communication and coordination with many parties and a significant amount of professional judgment.

Summary

Typical Day at Millerton Lake? ? ?

Questions?

Thank You

PowerPoint By: Robert Campbell, Rufino Gonzalez