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HOW TO USE CHURN PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS TO INCREASE RETENTION ADDEPTO WHITE PAPER 2019

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Page 1: INCREASE RETENTION ANALYSIS TO PREDICTION AND HOW TO … · churn analysis help to identify the cause (and timing) of this churn, opening up opportunities to implement effective retention

HOW TO USE CHURNPREDICTION ANDANALYSIS TOINCREASE RETENTION

A D D E P T O W H I T E P A P E R 2 0 1 9

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TABLE OFCONTENTS02 INTRODUCTION

03 PUTTING THE CUSTOMER CHURNPREDICTIONS IN USE

FOCUS ON HIGH-QUALITY LEADSSEGMENT PEOPLE IN ORDER TO FOCUS ONRETAINING THE RIGHT CUSTOMERS

06 BEST PRACTICES OF CUSTOMER RETENTIONANALYTICS

07 BUILDING A CHURN-PROOF RETENTION FLOW

1 0 KEY BENEFITS, FACTS, & INSIGHTS

1 1 CONTACT INFORMATION

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INTRODUCTION

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Subscription cancellationStop being active for some timeSuspending accountNon-renewal of a contract or service agreementDecision to shop at another provider (customer acquisition byanother provider)

Customer Churn Prediction refers to the rate of customer attrition ina company or, in simpler terms, in which a particular customer willstop using your company's products or services. Examples of when customers churn:

Customer Churn could happen due to many different reasons andchurn analysis help to identify the cause (and timing) of this churn,opening up opportunities to implement effective retentionstrategies.

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If the prediction matches the actual status of the customer, then no action isnecessary. However, if an active customer is likely to be a churned customer,this will imply defining the customer as being at-risk of churning. Alternatively,if a customer is currently inactive (meaning that they previously churned) butthe prediction is that they will become an active customer, this indicates thatthey are a good target to attempt to reinstate business. It is also useful to build a Customer Churn dashboard that enhances reportingby providing account managers with a list of clients to target with retentionefforts, as well as identifying the best prospects to try and win back. Thesecrucial insights maximize customer preservation and accurately pinpointmarketing efforts.

At this stage, the main goal is to give the company a targeted set of actions toimprove customer retention. Once an accurate machine learning model hasbeen trained, all of the past and present customers will be run through thepredictive model. This could give three different results. Table below showssample data set with prediction results and actions a company should take oneach particular customer:

PUTTING THE CUSTOMERCHURN PREDICTIONS IN USE

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FOCUS ON HIGH-QUALITY LEADSCustomers are less likely to churn if they aresimilar to your primary target customers. If youhave access to data about both your customersand a list of potential customers, this is a greatopportunity to focus on only those who are lesslikely to churn.

By applying algorithms comparing the featuresand characteristics of your customers to those ofyour potential customers. The ones that havesimilar characteristics (FTE size, annual spend, jobtitle, type of industry) to your existing customersare probably most likely to desire your product, tofind it valuable and therefore stick around. Yoursegmentation now becomes crucial. Eachcustomer segment provides you with distinctfeatures that will help you to easily identify yournext customers.

HOW?

04

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SEGMENT PEOPLE IN ORDER TO FOCUS ONRETAINING THE RIGHT CUSTOMERS

Using data analytics to segment peopleinto different groups means you canidentify how each segment engages withyour brand and product. This allows you tolook at each subgroup and draw insights,followed by adopting differentcommunication and servicing strategiesto increase retention for your mostdesired customers. Analyze data such as your customer'sdemographics, lifestyle, productspurchased, the frequency of purchase andits value. This way, you’ll discover whichtype of customers are driving the mostrevenue. Some generate too much coststo deliver revenue. Then you can decidewhether you want to focus your efforts onthem. Understanding the differences betweenvarious types of customers,  in somecases can make or break a business,especially if you’re just starting out.Knowing customer's value is crucial to beable to make critical decisions.

You can segment clients by historicalvalue, lifetime value, worth over the nextyear or the average customer value bysegment. Using the right segmentationwill allow you to create highly targetedproduct recommendation offers. Segment your customers to offer relevantdiscounts for different channels (in-store,online, mobile). Mix it up a bit - eachcustomer doesn’t have to receive thesame offer. Another useful way to use segmentation isto monitor the time-sensitivity andseasonality of your promotional codes. Bymonitoring sales data, you can seewhether these codes are redeemed moreoften in the morning or afternoons orperhaps straight after sales-communication. The more you know about what ademographic group responds to, themore you can focus on taking the rightactions.

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BEST PRACTICES OFCUSTOMER RETENTIONANALYTICS

1. Gather multiple data points to makerelevant recommendations

Be pragmatic and avoid making assumptions fromsolely one set of data. Even though someone who livesin California bought winter boots, it doesn’t necessarilymean that they want to be bombarded with similarproduct suggestions. Maybe they got them for theirsister who lives in Chicago!

2. Leverage social proofs wherever you can

If your customers don’t respond to certain products,maybe all they need is a little reminder that others,similar to them are using them and are satisfied with it.Use positive testimonials from surveys and socialmedia comments to your marketing communicationsand website.

3. Turn insightful data into effective action

It’s a fact: better data means better results. Just byimproving your internal data collection, you can oftenachieve better data results. In other cases, you mighthave to purchase better data. Valuable data is notstatic, it’s a continual process of observing, acting andlearning.

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BUILDING A CHURN-PROOF RETENTION FLOWEven after identifying the behavioral patterns through churn analysis and setting thenext steps based on that, it's highly advisable to start working on a retention flow justafter the customer activation.If the company is there at the same time as a customershows the ultimate form of interest - logged in the app and started using it - theyimmediately know the company is interested in helping increase their growth.

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DEFINE THE OBJECTIVE OF THE NURTURINGFLOW

First of all, you must have enough data to be able todetermine the main objective of the customer retentionflow, such as increasing the number of customers using aspecific feature or rise user's activity within the app. It's animportant step since a particular kind of content,frequency and even the channel of communication maychange depending on it.

In the following examples, we'll create a retention nurturing flow to avoid customerslosing their interest (which might turn into customer churn). The flow is focused onshowing new features to customers who are using just one option among thoseoffered by the product.

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BUILDING A CHURN-PROOF RETENTION FLOW

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DETERMINE THE CHANNEL AND THEAPPROACH

Will the retention strategy take place within the customer'sinbox? Or will they be able to interact and learn more directlywithin the product through in-app messages?While thechannel is essential to develop a clear communication of yourintentions to the customer, the approach must be carefullyset to avoid making them feel you're just another spammingcompany.

A good strategy is to blend both emails and in-app messages as the second one is anexcellent way to reach customers who are already within the product. Thanks to it, it isa lot easier to guide and encourage them through the app to carry out a specific action.In our example, customers would get emails that point out a feature they're not using.Together with that, in-app messages can follow the user within the app, to giveinstructions and complementary content to help them get used to the feature'sinterface and its functionalities.

WRITE THE CONTENT OF EMAILS AND IN-APP MESSAGES

Since the approach and channel of communication have been already defined, thenext step is to effectively produce the content that'll be sent. Sometimes, the beststrategy is to keep it simple and clean, without too many distractions like images ortext. A nurturing flow is built with content, and that's why it's important to have acontent marketing strategy up and running, to help these customers achievegreater results. This content is also a part of your retention flow.

To achieve that, it's recommended the use some of the contentmarketing weapons: Middle of the Funnel (MoFU) and Bottom of theFunnel (BoFU) content with a product-focused approach. Sincecustomers are already using the product, they could also takeadvantage of valuable resources to improve the way to use it.

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Now it's the time when both the plan and content meet realization. Start by setting thetrigger of the retention flow at your marketing or customer journey automationplatform. Since the Retention Stage of the customer lifecycle starts right after theActivation, don't wait too long to start your retention-focused flow. Let's say, a fewdays after the customer finishes the user onboarding. The great thing about marketing automation is the possibility of setting conditiontriggers, that'll define the user's next steps based on their behavior. Thanks to it, it'spossible to create different "branches" in the flow, possibilities of interaction that'llaffect the customer's experience and turn it into a personalized journey. Following our mind-map example of a feature suggestion retention flow, the marketingautomation would start three days after the customer has finished their useronboarding. After that, their actions would be monitored, adding them to different listsaccording to behavior - for instance using just one feature or low engagement rates. Ifthe customer fits the established criteria of "Contact is in the list", they would receive afeature suggestion email. When the customer clicks on a link within the email,automatically they'll be redirected to the product within-app message to help themdiscover more about the feature. Also, there's an "alternative path" for customers who don't click the email. If they'rereally not interested in the suggestion, the flow adds them to another marketingautomation flow which will approach them again after a while - but not too soon (toavoid too much pressure). By following these steps, each company can develop adifferent retention flow according to the main objective and the chosen approach.There's no rule for how many flows can be created in a single journey - but the companyshould always avoid turning the flow into spam.

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BUILDING A CHURN-PROOF RETENTION FLOWCREATE THE MARKETING AUTOMATION FLOW

FLOW START SEND E-MAILASSESSCONDITION

ASSESSIMPACT

SEND ANOTHERE-MAIL

IN-APPMESSAGE

ASSESSRESULT

INTRODUCEAUTOMATION

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Identify the root causes ofwhy customers leave andestablish re-acquisition

strategies.

Selling to the existingcustomers is easier and morecost-effective than selling to

the new ones.

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KEY BENEFITS, FACTS &INSIGHTS

BOOST PROFITS

Proactively launch campaignsand strategies to abate

customer attrition.

RETAIN MORECUSTOMERS

WIN BACKBUSINESS

Customers' loss is substantial,long-reaching, and can impacteverything from revenue toopportunity of competition.

AVERT LOSS