incrementum advisors ag baar/zug - june 2010. incrementum advisors ag, baar/zug disclaimer: ...

Incrementum advisors AG

Baar/Zug - June 2010

Incrementumadvisors AG, Baar/Zug

Disclaimer: Investment Fund(s) mentioned in this presentation are not certificated to the public selling, except in Liechtenstein. They do not represent

an offer at investors outside of Liechtenstein in this sense.

All information about the fund was created to the best of our knowledge and ability and are based on conditions prevailing at the time of publication. We can, however, not accept any liability for its correctness or completeness.

The client shall be responsible exclusively for the fulfillment of taxation regulations prevailing for the time being in the country in which the client is liable for taxation. In case of need, we recommend the employment of a taxation adviser.

Any information that goes beyond the content of this documentation is not authorized by the publisher. The publisher expressly rejects any liability.

This fund information represents neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase. It serves for information purposes of the recipient only and is not directed to persons to whom such offers and invitations may not be made by law. The circulation of this documentation may be restricted by law in certain countries. Any person coming into possession of this publication is requested by Incrementum advisors AG to obtain information on the relevant legislation and to comply with it. In those countries in which such an offer or invitation to purchase securities is not permitted, this publication may not be used for such purposes.

This publication may not be used for advertising purposes in the USA or circulated to US residents

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Incrementum advisors AG, Baar/Zug

Incrementum advisors AG is an independent financial services company founded in 2008 in Zug, Switzerland.

The partners of Incrementum advisors AG are highly qualified and have over 60 years of combined banking experience. Prior to founding or joining the company the partners held either high-ranking Wealth Management positions within UBS Switzerland and Latin America or high-ranking Investment Banking Management positions with Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch & Cie and Bank Sal. Oppenheim (Schweiz) AG.

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Incrementum advisors AG provides you with access to an international network of highly qualified financial intermediaries, international lawyers, chartered accountants, and depository banks. Our strength lies in finding solutions to protect and increase your wealth.

We strongly believe in customizing every investment solution according to the needs, risk appetite and investment return expectations of every single client.

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Incrementum Fund uno

Fund data:

Fund Administrator: IFM, Vaduz LiechtensteinCustody Bank: Liechtensteinische Landesbank, VaduzAsset Manager: Incrementum advisors AG, ZugAuditor: Ernst & Young, BernType of Fund: Fund for qualified investors for distribution in LiechtensteinISIN Nr.: LI0022899566Valoren Nr.: 2.289.956

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Incrementum Fund unoIncrementum Fund uno is mainly invested in Precious Metals and Energy related commodities.

The main goal of the fund is to give qualified investors the possibility to invest in an investment fund with a focus on Precious Metals and Energy. The fund enables qualified investors to participate in a fund that is actively managed in a very conservative way, without taking excessive risk, apart from being invested in the respective asset classes. Furthermore the fund allows qualified investors to hold physical gold and to have the liquidity deposited with a sound bank with state guarantee. The fund is registered, audited and managed in politically and financially stable countries with long-time experience in providing fund services.

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Investment policy

The fund will mainly invest in precious metals and energy related investments. Funds not invested will be held in an overnight deposit with a top bank, mainly with the custodian bank. It is planned to hold at least 30% in physical gold in the form of 12.5 kilo standard bars which will be held in custody with the custodian bank but will be allocated to the fund by using the respective registered number of each gold bar. Further physical fund positions are planned to be held in a more liquid vehicle holding physical gold or silver, namely an ETF of a prime Swiss Bank.

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Investment category:

minimum maximumCash 0% 100%Gold 0% 100%Silver 0% 100%Oil 0% 75%Natural Gas 0% 75%Other commodities 0% 50%

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Investment restrictions:

• Derivatives only to be used in a very conservative way

• Structured products should be avoided whenever possible

• Hedging not planned but possible

• No leverage by using credit facilities therefore no risk for collateral calls • Cash not invested would be held in overnight either USD or Swiss Francs

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Incrementum Fund unoasset allocation June 2010:

• Gold 53.1%• physical bars (46,1%)• ETF Julius Baer

• Silver 39.6%• Physical silver bars (4.9%• ETF ZKB

• Gold/Silver ETF• Central Fund of Canada 1.9%

• Gold/Silver derivatives 2.6%• Oil 0%• Natural Gas 0%• Food 0%• Cash 2.8%


Gold and Silver

Is it too late to invest?

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Governments overspending Lack of fiscal discipline Quantitative Easing bad debt / toxic assets Sovereign risk

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Incrementum Fund unoWhy commodities: Gold bull market since 2001

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

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Incrementum Fund unoWhy commodities: Silver bull market since 2003



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Incrementum Fund unoWhy commodities: Brent Oil bull market since 2001



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Incrementum Fund unoUS M3



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Incrementum Fund unoAnd Inflation?



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Incrementum Fund unoAnd GDP?



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Incrementum Fund unoHistory of commodity bull markets:

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Incrementum Fund unoHistory of commodity bull markets:

• Commodity Bull Markets last between 20-30 years

• Shortest Commodity Bull Market lasted 10 years

• In the current Bull Market, most Commodities have not yet increased considerably

• First major correction due to deleveraging seems to be ending

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Precious Metals

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Incrementum Fund unoGold bull market



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Is the Gold Bull Market near the end?

Is it time to Buy or Sell?

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Taking into account that the shortest Commodity Bull market was 10 years it is possibly not yet the time to sell and most probably still the time to buy

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Incrementum Fund unoGold bull market Gold in CHF: Gold did not enter the bull market in non USDterms until 2005



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Incrementum Fund unoGold bull market 2001-2008: Depreciated USD or Gold Bull market?

Gold:USD Performance 5 years: +193%

Gold:CHF Performance 5 yrs: +140%





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Incrementum Fund unoGold has more than 3000 years of history and history tells us gold, not paper, is “real money”

Gold is the ultimate store of value and unique due to:

• Gold is rare, durable and easily divisible with a high per unit value

• Value is recognized globally and is traded in a continuous market

• Gold is produced for accumulation mainly• Gold is the only form of money that cannot

be debased by the same authorities who print paper currency

• Gold is the only financial medium of exchange that is not someone else’s liability

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Incrementum Fund unoGold as currency

The role as a currency appears to have been forgotten

1. The Gold Standard ended in 1971 (Gold at USD 35/oz.)

2. The prolonged bear market of 20 years since gold hit USD 850.– in 1980e

3. Persistent disinvestment by central banks over the last few years (mainly European Central Banks)

History shows that FIAT currencies eventually fail

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Incrementum Fund unoGold as currency II

Gold used as currency helped to maintain economical stability

Gold money gave prosperity to its users

• Babylon• Roman Empire• Byzantine Empire• Arab Empire• Florence, Genua and Venice started to prosper once they

introduced gold coins as currency• Europe was in the dark ages before using gold as currency

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Incrementum Fund unoGold as hedge against inflation

Since the creation of the FED, the purchasing power of the USD has fallen to less than 3% of its 1913 level (taking the official inflation not the real inflation)

Gold price has risen in the same period 42.6 times from USD 20.67 to USD 860.– oz.

With one ounce of gold one could buy a suit, a pair of shoes and leather belt today and could do so 100 years ago

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Incrementum Fund unoGold versus CPI, 1970-79

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Incrementum Fund unoGold versus CPI, 1980-2000

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Incrementum Fund unoGold in times of uncertainty

Actual Financial crisis, massive outstanding Derivatives

In today’s world of massive deficit spending, inflating currencies (excessive growth in the money supply) and financial imbalances, gold’s monetary role is reasserting itself.

Investment demand for gold is increasing Institutional investors started to invest

in goldIndividuals still show almost no interest

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Incrementum Fund unoGold in times of uncertainty II

Gold price acts as an early warning of potential crisisRising inflationary/deflationary

pressuresLoss in general confidence in paper

currencies, especially USD

Central banks have loaned out 10,000 – 15,000 tonnes of their gold reserves

Gold and precious metals are the only asset class that should perform well in either an inflationary or deflationary scenario

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Incrementum Fund unoReasons for the ongoing strength in Gold

1. Banking and liquidity crisis2. Rising inflation concerns3. Rising geopolitical risk4. Rising commodity prices in general5. Fears over dollar weakness 6. Increase in Commodity prices in general7. Record trade y current account deficit in the US8. Sky high debt levels in developed nations, only option is to

inflate the currencies9. A major Bull market in crude oil due to rising demand and tight

supply10. Inexpensive in real terms (inflation-adjusted basis)

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Incrementum Fund unoPhysical market of Gold

There is a shortage of physical Gold

1. Supply deficit of 1,300 tons before central bank selling and perhaps 700 tons after central bank selling

2. Miners cannot boost production to meet rising demand

3. Gold production flat to declining

4. Production held back by lack of technological development and low exploration spending

5. To bring new mines online takes several years

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Incrementum Fund unoPhysical market of Gold

There is a shortage of physical Gold

1. Supply deficit of 1,300 tons before central bank selling and perhaps 700 tons after central bank selling

2. Miners cannot boost production to meet rising demand

3. Gold production flat to declining

4. Production held back by lack of technological development and low exploration spending

5. To bring new mines online takes several years

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Incrementum Fund unoGold and Central Banks

In the 1980’s, Central Banks started to lend or deposit part of their holdings with bullion banks in return for a fee

In the 1990’s, Central Bank gold lending and sales depressed the gold price…

• to help calm financial markets in times of actual or feared economic/political crisis (Asian financial

crisis, Russian crisis, collapse of LTCM and 9/11 attack)

• to create a positive perception of US monetary policy (suggest that US Inflation is under control

and is therefore supportive of a stronger USD and lower nominal interest rates)

• to prevent major commercial and investment banks from incurring substantial losses from the “gold carry trade”

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Incrementum Fund unoGold Outlook

possibly USD 1,600 oz. by end of 2010

Spike to above USD 4,000 oz. possible (over 5 years)

Shorts have to be covered• Russia and China competing to increase their

gold reserves• Several central banks increasing gold reserves• Traders will know more about the physical deficit

holdings of central banks and the outstanding shorts and will trade against it

• Physical prices are much higher than paper prices (decoupling of physical vs. paper)

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Incrementum Fund unoGold Outlook according Elliott Wave by Alf Field

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

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Incrementum Fund unoSilver is money

Derry Brownfield, June 15 2008

I began a recent presentation before a large group of cattle producers (R-CALFUSA) by showing a paper dollar bill and a silver coin. The words “one dollar” is inscribed on both the coin and the paper, yet the paper dollar will only pay for about one quart of gasoline at today’s prices, while the silver dollar will pay for well over five gallons. I explained to my audience that consumer prices are not high – the paper dollar has lost most of its value. It makes no difference how high the price of gasoline goes, a silver dollar will continue to buy gas for 20 cents a gallon, exactly the price gas was during the Great Depression. Based on 1940 prices, a paper dollar is worth about two pennies.

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Incrementum Fund unoSilver is money Silver in principle is the same story as gold

Differences to gold:Industrial use of Silver historically has been high and remains high

Silver has many useful positive qualities

Most central banks do not have any Silver physical reserves

Physical stockpiles are at very low levels

Short positions and physical demand could easily squeeze market price

Silver is considered both an industrial metal and a precious metal

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Incrementum Fund unoSilver Outlook

Between USD 30,-- and USD 60.– oz. by 2010

Spike to far above USD 100,-- oz. possible

Shorts have to be covered

Industrial demand remains high as silver still is a cheap metal with top high qualities

Traders will know more about outstanding shorts and will trade against it

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Incrementum Fund unoOil & Gas / EnergyHubbert Peak I

How did he calculate is prediction?

Production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve

Typically production peak occurs when almost half of total oil in the reservoir has been extracted

Discoveries of new reservoirs as well follow a bell-shaped curve

Once the history of discoveries was charted Hubbert was able to calculate the total ultimately recoverable reserves

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Incrementum Fund unoOil & Gas / EnergyHubbert Peak

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Incrementum Fund unoOil & Gas / Energy

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Incrementum Fund unoOil & Gas / EnergyConclusions

Oil is a cheap, abundant, versatile energy source on which we have understandably become overwhelmingly dependent.

Cheap oil is gone

We have waited too long to develop alternative energy sources. (according to the Hirsch Report)

Economic, social, and political impacts from Peak Oil are now inevitable.

However, there are still things we can do to reduce those impacts and prepare for a post-petroleum future.

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Incrementum Fund unoFuture

Market correction for commodities in 2008 is possibly the first correction within the 5 bull market cycles according to Elliott Wave Theory

Therefore the actual bull market will reassume strength soonTherefore the actual bull market will last at least another 10 years

Food prices will go up considerablydue to lack of water, land and increasing

production costs

A reverse of Globalization and more local production for the local market is foreseeable

due to high transportation costs

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Contact

Incrementum advisors AGHaldenstrasse 16340 Baar/Zug - [email protected]

incrementum advisors ag baar/zug - june 2010. incrementum advisors ag, baar/zug disclaimer: ...

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incrementum fund uno

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