india chem 2018: competitive feed stocks and integration ...indiachem.in/brochure/presentation by...
TRANSCRIPT
India Chem 2018:Competitive Feed stocks and Integration in Petrochemical Crackers
5th Oct 2018
Forward Looking Statement
This presentation contains forward-looking statements which may be identified by their use of
words like “plans,” “expects,” “will,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “intends,” “projects,” “estimates” or
other words of similar meaning. All statements that address expectations or projections about the
future, including, but not limited to, statements about the strategy for growth, product
development, market position, expenditures, and financial results, are forward-looking
statements.
Forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events.
The companies referred to in this presentation cannot guarantee that these assumptions and
expectations are accurate or will be realised. The actual results, performance or achievements,
could thus differ materially from those projected in any such forward-looking statements. These
companies assume no responsibility to publicly amend, modify or revise any forward looking
statements, on the basis of any subsequent developments, information or events, or otherwise.
2
3
R&M Largest single refinery site with robust configuration
Petchem Integrated petrochemicals with presence in fastest growing markets
E&P Developing deep water resources in Oil & Gas
Retail Growing presence in retail & supply chain
Jio Fastest growing mobile data network (4G)
Media Wide mass reach with media and entertainment
US$ 48.4 Billion Annual Revenue
US$ 7.0 Billion Cash Profit
US$ 5.2 Billion Net Profit
2nd
Global Rankings
PX
PTA
Polyester
PP
MEG
4th
2nd
5th
8th
Reliance at a glance
FY 2017-18 Annual Report
Agenda
1. Petrochemical Cracker Feed Options
2. Cracker Feedstock across globe
3. Feedstock price trends
4. Feed Economics
5. Reliance’s Ethane Project
4
Cracker Feedstock - Options
5
Gas Cracker feed
• Ethane ( C2H6)
• Propane ( C3H8)
• Butane ( C4H10 – Normal/iso Butane)
• Refinery Off Gas
Liquid Cracker feed
• Condensates
• Paraffinic Naphtha (Paraffin content > 65 %)
• Can be mixed with other naphtha like Aromatic / High Paraffinic Naphtha
• Gas Oil : Diesel can be cracked to produce Olefins
• Heavier hydrocarbons
Typical yields from different feeds
6
Feedstock Type Ethylene Propylene Crude C4's Pygas Hydrogen Fuel Gas Fuel Oil TOTAL
Ethane 80.4% 1.7% 2.8% 2.5% 6.2% 6.2% 0.3% 100.0%
Propane 42.0% 17.0% 4.0% 7.0% 2.0% 27.0% 1.0% 100.0%
N-Butane 40.0% 17.0% 10.0% 7.0% 2.0% 22.0% 2.0% 100.0%
LT Naphtha 31.0% 16.0% 9.0% 19.0% 2.0% 19.0% 4.0% 100.0%
Gasoil 21.0% 15.0% 9.0% 19.0% 1.0% 10.0% 25.0% 100.0%
7
Cracker Feedstocks by regions
-
10
20
30
40
50
2012 2017 2022
Americas
Ethane Propane
Butane Naphtha
Gas Oil MTO/CTO
-
10
20
30
2012 2017 2022
Europe
-
10
20
30
2012 2017 2022
ME / Africa
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2012 2017 2022
AsiaMn MTEthylene
Source: IHS Markit
Feedstock extractability & availability affects Cracking feed mix
8
Feedstock changes
Ethane38%
Propane9%
Butane5%
Naphtha42%
Gas Oil3%
Methanol to Olefins
1%
Methanol to Propylene
0.00%Coal to Olefins
1%
Others1%
Source: IHS Markit
2017 Ethylene Production = 153 Mn MT/yr
57 MMTPA
64 MMTPA
47% in 2012
35% in 2012
Ethane40%
Propane8%
Butane5% Naphtha
39%
Gas Oil3%
Methanol to Olefins
1%
Methanol to Propylene
0.03%Coal to Olefins
2%
Others2%
Source: IHS Markit
2022 Ethylene Forecast = 186 Mn MT/yr
74 MMTPA
71 MMTPA
Ethane46%
Propane7%
Butane1%
Naphtha44%
Other2%
Source: IHS Markit
Ethane51%
Propane4%
Butane1%
Naphtha43%
Other1%
9
Feedstock changes- India
2022 Ethylene Forecast = 7.7 Mn MT/yr2017 Ethylene Production = 5.9 Mn MT/yr
Source: IHS Markit
Additional Naphtha based capacity required to absorb national surplus. Propane (LPG) share expected to reduce. Additional Ethane capacity expected given its competitiveness at higher crude levels
US Cracker Startup (First wave)
Sr No Plant Feed Location Capacity (KTA) Startup
1 Oxychem /Mexichem JV Ethane Ingleside 550 Mar-17
2 Dow Ethane Freeport 1,500* Sep-17
3 Chevron Phillips Ethane Cedar Bayou 1,500 Mar-18
4 ExxonMobil Ethane Baytown 1,500 July- 18
5 Indorama Ventures PCL Ethane Lake Charles 420 Q4 2018
6 FPC USA (Formosa) Ethane Point Comfort 1,252 Q4 18/Q1 19
7 Shin Etsu Ethane Plaquemine 500 Q4 18/Q1 19
8 SASOL Ethane Lake Charles, LA 1550 Q4 18/Q1 19
10
Dow has started construction to expand new cracker to 2000 KTASource: ICIS
US Cracker Startup (Second wave)
Sr No Plant Feed Location Capacity (KTA) Startup
1 Lotte-Westlake Ethane Lake Charles, Louisiana 1000 H2 2019
2Bayport Polymers (Total-Borealis-Nova JV)
Ethane Port Arthur 1000 H2 2020
3 Shell Ethane Monaca 1500 H2 2021
4 PTTGC* Ethane Belmont, OH 1000 2022+
5 Formosa* Ethane Louisiana 1200 2022+
11
Source: ICIS, IHS
* Investment decision/approvals pending
Crackers in Other Regions
12
Source: IHS
Company Region Country City Process Capacity StartupNova Chemical North America Canada Sarnia EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) 408 2021Fujian Gu Lei Petro Northeast Asia China Zhangzhou EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 800 2022Hengli Petrochemical Northeast Asia China Dalian EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 1500 2021Huatai Shengfu Northeast Asia China Ningbo EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) 600 2021Liaoning Bora PC Northeast Asia China Liaoning EPB/Naphtha 800 2020Shandong Yuhuang Northeast Asia China Dongming EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 400 2021Shouguang Luqing PC Northeast Asia China Shouguang EPB/Naphtha 750 2022Sinochem Quanzhou Northeast Asia China Quanzhou EPB/Naphtha 1000 2021Sinopec Hainan R&C Northeast Asia China Hainan Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 1000 2024Sinopec-KPC PC JV Northeast Asia China Zhanjiang EPB/Naphtha 800 2021SP Chemicals Northeast Asia China Taixing Ethane/Propane 650 2020Wanhua Chemical Northeast Asia China Yantai EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) 1000 2021Zhejiang PC Northeast Asia China Zhoushan EPB/Naphtha 1400 2020HPCL Mittal Energy Indian Subcontinent India Bhatinda Naphtha 1200 2022Gachsaran PC Middle East Iran Gachsaran Ethane 1000 2023Ilam PC Middle East Iran Ilam EPB/Naphtha 458 2018GS Caltex Northeast Asia Korea (South) Yeosu EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 700 2022Hyundai Chemical Northeast Asia Korea (South) Daesan EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 750 2022LG Chem Northeast Asia Korea (South) Yeosu Naphtha 800 2022PRPC RC (Petronas Rapid) Southeast Asia Malaysia Pengerang EPB/Naphtha 1260 2019ORPIC Middle East Oman Sohar EPB/Naphtha 880 2021
KPI CIS & Baltic States Other CIS & Baltic States Karabatan Ethane 800 2023
Turkmengas CIS & Baltic States Other CIS & Baltic States Kiyanly EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) 400 2018NKNK CIS & Baltic States Russia Nizhnekamsk Naphtha 600 2021Novy Urengoy GCC CIS & Baltic States Russia Novy Urengoy Ethane 420 2020ZapSibNeftekhim CIS & Baltic States Russia Tobolsk EPB/Naphtha 1500 2021PTTGC Southeast Asia Thailand Map Ta Phut Naphtha 500 2021Nova/SABIC North America United States Geismar Ethane/Propane 442 2018Long Son PC Co. Southeast Asia Viet Nam Ba Ria-Vung Tau EPB/Naphtha 1000 2023
* Some projects, especially in China may be delayed/ scrapped
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Ja
n-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Naphtha MOP-S ($/MT) Propane CP ($/MT)
US Ethane- Mt Belvieu ($/MT Converted) Crude Brent ($/bbl)
Cracker Feedstock Prices
13
$ / MT
Cru
de
($/b
bl)
Feedstock price variability - impacts Cracker Margins
Cost Control through Feed flexibilityNew Chemistries – MTO/CTO, PDH
Asia Cracker Margins
14
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Integrated Ethane Cracker Integrated Propane Cracker Integrated Naphtha Cracker
High Butadiene
co-product credit
Seasonal Propane Winter Spike
US Ethane
Export Terminal
Start-up Margins Squeezed as feed
cost rises
Gap Between Ethane & Naphtha/LPG
large at higher crude levels
SE
A E
thyle
ne M
arg
ins (
$ /
MT
)
Fluctuations in global crude prices lead to volatility in Naphtha & Propane feedstock prices. US Ethane prices firm up when start of new cracker adds to demand/ supply constraints prevail in US NGL market
Ethylene Cash Cost curve
15
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161
Apr-13 Aug-15 May-18$/MT
Million MT
Brent Crude $/bbl 102 47 77
Middle East Gas Crackers
US Gas Crackers
Asia & European Naphtha Crackers
JKT & Smaller European Naphtha Crackers
CTO & MTO
Source: RIL Internal Analysis
1000
500
@ 100 $/bblCrude
@ 50 $/bblCrude
Reliance’s Ethane Project
Only company to move Ethane from US to Asia
16
Reliance’s Ethane Project
17
Ethane Terminal at US Gulf Coast GCPTCL Jetty at Dahej
DMD Ethane Tank (90KT)
Dahej Nagothane Pipeline (DNEPL) – 480 Km
JMDHMD
Cracker
NMD Cracker
DMD Cracker
Ethane VLEC (46 KT)
Thank you
18