india's political take-off

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THE ECONOMIC WEEKLY ANNUAL NUMBER FEBRUARY 1962 India's Political Take-off Rajni Kothari In every developing political system two species of politics can be identified, the politics of ideology and the polities of action. An analysis of the interaction between the two can throw up some of the most important facets of the nature and direction of political change taking place in such a system. In India this interaction has taken place under peculiar historical and institutional conditions. Two factors need to be specially noted. In the first place, the highly organised independence movement ensured that the Government to whom power was transferred could count on a fairly long period of uninterrupted rule. In the second place, however, it had to and to all appearances it wanted to function under a political system in which success in elections was essential for political survival, The first factor the stability of the Government led to an excessive concern with ideological issues and a disregard by all parties of the practical problems of organisation. This was helped by the missionary and romanticist fervour to build up an independent, strong and modern nation which derived from the ideal of a 'continuous revolution, born during the movement for independence. This led to a long period of what may be termed 'romantic polities'. The second condition - the need to work within the framework of a democratic constitution led, on the other hand, to a gradual change in the political climate to shifts in power and to a struggle for poli- tical ascendancy, which gained momentum with every election. The near-monopoly of power of the Congress party, meant that this struggle for power was waged, for the most part, within the ruling party the other parties exercising at best, a marginal influence on the changing fortunes of factions within the Congress. The net result of this complex of interactions was a gradual widening of the gulf between the politics of ideology conducted at the higher ranks of the party; and the Politics of action conducted in the 'field'. For a time' the 'bickerings' within the party were concealed behind the ideological smokescreen. Hut now on the eve of the third General Elections, the struggle promises to come out into the open. An attempt has been made here to indicate the emerging pattern of political development and the possible direction it might take in the coming crucial decade. THE tasks of nation-building that faced India on Independence ere indeed formidable. The man- er in which the national leadership approached the problems of consoli- dation and of preserving the unity the nation evoked admiral ion from all quarters. The next task was consider the aims and purposes the new State was to pursue and the institutional set-up required for ful- lling them. This task was also performed in a thorough manner, the adoption of a federal-democratic political structure and the setting up If the Planning Commission were consonance with the purposes set in the Constitution, They pro- vided a workable formal apparatus with which the social, economic and political changes necessary for driving out a modern State from a aditional society could be worked at. All that was needed was orga- tsation and drive to give content to the constitutional forms by build' up an institutional continuum that would lay the basis of a free and integrated society. Such orga- nisational effort had to use existing institutions and interest groups, mobilising latent human and mate- rial resources and attending to the concrete problems of piecemeal change. But while much of the work remained to be done in the form of activising the infra-struc- ture of society, there was a sound basis from which to proceed — an atmosphere of general confidence in the leadership and much goodwill and patience among the politically articulate. Ironically, the very fat-tors that made for stability militated against the adoption of a realistic altitude towards the tasks of nation-building. The political development of the country after the adoption of the Constitution and formation of the Planning Commission can be roughly divided into three phases: the first half of the nineteen fifties, marked generally by political unity, mobi- lisation of economic resources and rural uplift; the latter half of the fifties, marked by complacency in the Congress leadership and a gra- dual drift into ideological politics; and. third, the period from the be- ginning of the sixties, marked by an intense struggle for power and the rise of a new political elite. Preoccupation with Ideology I shall not discuss the first period here except to say that some of the seeds of the present struggle — especially the manner in which a new leadership has emerged were sown then. The second period, starting roughly with the linguistic ferment in the country, is crucial for the understanding of India's political development. It was marked by two interacting tendencies. There was on the one hand, a feeling of complacency among the Congress leadership, largely on account of the ineffectiveness of the opposition parties and the successful imple- mentation of the First Plan. On 149

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Page 1: India's Political Take-off

THE ECONOMIC WEEKLY ANNUAL NUMBER FEBRUARY 1962

India's Political Take-off Rajni Kothari

In every developing political system two species of politics can be identified, the politics of ideology and the polities of action. An analysis of the interaction between the two can throw up some of the most important facets of the nature and direction of political change taking place in such a system.

In India this interaction has taken place under peculiar historical and institutional conditions. Two factors need to be specially noted.

In the first place, the highly organised independence movement ensured that the Government to whom power was transferred could count on a fairly long period of uninterrupted rule.

In the second place, however, it had to — and to all appearances it wanted to — function under a political system in which success in elections was essential for political survival,

The first factor — the stability of the Government — led to an excessive concern with ideological issues and a disregard by all parties of the practical problems of organisation. This was helped by the missionary and romanticist fervour to build up an independent, strong and modern nation which derived from the ideal of a 'continuous revolution, born during the movement for independence. This led to a long period of what may be termed 'romantic polities'.

The second condition - the need to work within the framework of a democratic constitution — led, on the other hand, to a gradual change in the political climate to shifts in power and to a struggle for poli­tical ascendancy, which gained momentum with every election. The near-monopoly of power of the Congress party, meant that this struggle for power was waged, for the most part, within the ruling party — the other parties exercising at best, a marginal influence on the changing fortunes of factions within the Congress.

The net result of this complex of interactions was a gradual widening of the gulf between the politics of ideology conducted at the higher ranks of the party; and the Politics of action — conducted in the 'field'.

For a time' the 'bickerings' within the party were concealed behind the ideological smokescreen. Hut now on the eve of the third General Elections, the struggle promises to come out into the open.

An attempt has been made here to indicate the emerging pattern of political development and the possible direction it might take in the coming crucial decade.

THE tasks of na t ion-bu i ld ing that faced I n d i a on Independence

ere indeed fo rmidab le . The man-er in w h i c h the national leadership approached the problems of consoli-dation and of preserving the uni ty

the nat ion evoked admi ra l ion from all quarters. The next task was

consider the aims and purposes the new State was to pursue and the ins t i tu t iona l set-up requi red for ful-l l i n g them. This task was also performed in a thorough manner, the adopt ion of a federal-democratic pol i t ica l s t ructure and the sett ing up If the P lann ing Commission were

consonance w i t h the purposes set in the Const i tu t ion , They p ro -

vided a workable fo rmal apparatus with w h i c h the social, economic and po l i t i c a l changes necessary for driving out a modern State f r o m a ad i t iona l society could be worked at. A l l that was needed was orga-tsation and dr ive to give content to the const i tut ional forms by b u i l d '

up an ins t i tu t iona l con t inuum that wou ld lay the basis of a free

and integrated society. Such orga­nisational effort had to use exis t ing ins t i tu t ions and interest groups, mobi l i s ing latent human and mate­r i a l resources and at tending to the concrete problems of piecemeal change. Bu t w h i l e much of the work remained to be done in the form of activising the infra-struc­ture of society, there was a sound basis f r o m which to proceed — an atmosphere of general confidence in the leadership and much goodwi l l and patience among the po l i t i ca l ly ar t iculate .

I ron i ca l l y , the very fat-tors that made for s tab i l i ty mi l i t a t ed against the adopt ion of a realistic a l t i tude towards the tasks of na t ion-bu i ld ing . The po l i t i ca l development of the count ry after the adopt ion of the Const i tut ion and fo rmat ion of the Planning Commission can be rough ly d iv ided in to three phases: the first ha l f of the nineteen f i f t ies , marked generally by po l i t i ca l un i ty , mobi ­l isat ion of economic resources and

ru ra l u p l i f t ; the lat ter ha l f of the fifties, marked by complacency in the Congress leadership and a gra­dual d r i f t in to ideological po l i t i c s ; and. t h i r d , the per iod f r o m the be­g i n n i n g of the sixties, marked by an intense struggle fo r power and the rise of a new pol i t ica l elite.

Preoccupation with Ideology

I shall not discuss the first per iod here except to say that some of the seeds of the present s t ruggle — especially the manner in w h i c h a new leadership has emerged — were sown then. The second per iod , s tar t ing roughly w i t h the l inguis t ic ferment in the country, is c ruc ia l for the understanding of India 's pol i t ical development. I t was marked by two interact ing tendencies. There was on the one hand, a feeling of complacency among the Congress leadership, largely on account of the ineffectiveness of the oppos i t ion part ies and the successful imp le ­menta t ion of the First Plan. On

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the other hand, there was g r o w i n g concern over 'fissiparous tendencies' in the po l i t i ca l sphere and slow progress of programmes, especially on the agr icu l tura l f ron t . The ab­sence of po l i t i ca l opposi t ion and the fact that the expected 'permanent revolut ion ' was somehow not coming led to an increasing pre-occupation w i t h ideological issues. Solemn re­solutions, schemes, blueprints and "studies" that offered neat formulae — in sum a general rise of romantic pol i t ics — were the result. These gave a special style and flavour to the vocabulary of Ind ian pol i t ics . In the process, the work of b u i l d i n g up organisations and in i t i a t ive at various levels was seriously neg­lected.

I I

State of the Ruling Par ty This phase of development needs

closer examinat ion. The per iod was marked by the quasi-monopolistic position of the Congress. The tra­d i t iona l attitudes to pol i t ica l autho­r i t y and the l inger ing publ ic image of the Congress created d u r i n g the freedom movement buttressed its posit ion further. Secondly, the needs of centralised p lann ing and ideology of a welfare State enabled the r u l i n g pa r ty to control all ave­nues of power, not s imply in the pol i t ica l sphere but in society as a whole. I ts net of patronage was cast far and wide. T h i r d l y , the near-unanimity among most th ink­ing men, at home and abroad, on the type of programme on which an under-developed country should launch made the r u l i n g par ty appear to be the most impor t an t vehicle of progress.

Such a situation bad two impor t ­ant consequences. As noted above, lack of a real threat to the Congress party 's power led to concentration on the goals to which the country should move; detached f rom the g r i m considerations of power, the orientat ion of politics became ideo­logical . B u t since the ideology was based less on a study of the society in which i t was to be practised and more on in tu i t ion and abstract rea­soning, and often uncr i t ica l imi ta ­t ion , pol i t ics became more and more romant i c ; the missionary zeal of the nationalist leadership gave way to wishful t h i n k i n g .

Rise of Romantic Politics

A socialistic pat tern of society and a co-operative commonwealth, the Utopia of a communi ta r ian order as envisaged in the programme l o r 'democratic decentralisation', the mora l overtones accompanying the programmes for Communi ty Deve­lopment, the ghost of disintegrat ion invented out of stray and unconnect­ed manifestations of par t icular is t ic behaviour and the resultant bogey of Nat iona l In tegra t ion , the appro­ach to the m i n o r i t y problem, a "national f ront ' of pol i t ica l parties impelled by the 'compulsions of a developing economy' (a po l i t i ca l scientist has now come out in sup­por t of the dream1) wi thdrawal of men of experience f r o m pol i t ica l power, and the plat i tudinous appeals to pa r ty men and countrymen to disown caste and communal affilia­tions — these are a l l evidence of a pol i t ica l ethos bred in a per iod of unbr idd led romaticism, in wh ich the Congress d i d not have to face the challenge of an adversary and, con­sequently, d i d not need to apply intelligence to the piecemeal work of insti tution-buiding. , and d i d not have to stand the scrut iny of a scientific study of social issues be­fore it embarked on a mammoth programme of act ion.

The other result of the Congress monopoly of power provides another dimension to the developing p o l i t i ­cal pa t te rn . Lack of real opposit ion f r o m outside has led to a struggle for po l i t i ca l power w i t h i n the r u l i n g par ty , Gradual ly th i s developed into a recognisable pat tern, marked by the inter-play of easily ident i f i ­able factions. Thus al though the preoccupation of the national leader­ship w i t h bluepr ints fo r modernisa­t ion produced what has been termed above as romantic, pol i t ics on the national level, the po l i t i ca l process could not long remain aloof f r o m the struggle for power that lies in its logic. The result of the inter­action between these two levels of politics — the pol i t ics of moderni­sation and the poli t ics of power — was the widen ing gul f between the higher and lower tiers of po l i t i ca l leadership. W i t h the gradual de­cline of the absolute dependence on

1 Prof S V Kogekar in his Presiden­tial Address to the Indian Political Science Conference held at Cuttnck, December 1961.

the former of the latter, a change has set i n . Those in charge of the Dis t r i c t and the Taluka have begun to realise that true power comes not f rom legislative seats but f r o m the control of local ins t i tu­tions, that i t lies not in charisma but i n organisation. A n d w i t h this, I n d i a n pol i t ics has entered a new-phase in wh ich the old , awe-inspir­i n g , c i v i l and urbanised leadership has come face to face w i t h a new generation of leaders which has i ts roots in the ru ra l side, wh ich has its g r i p on local organisations, which is also fired by its own romantic ism, a contempt for the 'westernised', a regard for strict order and disci­pl ine a chronic in fe r io r i ty complex, and a sense of certainty and convic­t ion in what i t is out to do. This rural elite is an entirely new force on the Indian pol i t ical scene. It has begun to assert i tself in not a few places. It w i l l soon capture strategic positions in the Establishment.

These two results of the Congress monopoly of power — the rise of romantic polit ics and the rise of a new rura l elite — bear an impor t ­ant re la t ion to each other. In the fascination for the former, the com­i n g of the latter almost went un­noticed for a t ime. Ideological o r i ­entation of the whole tone of po l i ­tics provided a cur ta in behind which the stage for the coming struggle for power was being set. W i t h the advent of the sixties, the cur ta in has been l i f t ed . On the other hand, it appears certain that the legacy of romantic poli t ics w i l l cont inue: indeed it is l ikely that at least in the in i t i a l per iod , the new claimants to power w i l l invoke ideological arguments rather more than less: that is the only means of leg i t imis ing their author i ty in the eves of a people fed on such argu­ments. The content of ideology may. however change impercept ibly .

Ideological Cleavage

Indeed, the cleavage between the o l d urbanised elite and the new-leadership is par t ly ideological. The new elite is made up of men who spent their formative years of l i fe in a period when Mahatma Gandhi was in f u l l command of Ind i an nat ional ism and when the earlier currents of thought had spent their

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force. The t r ad i t i on of self-sacrifice as the hal lmark of po l i t i c a l conduct, the sense of importance of 'con­structive w o r k ' and programmes for r u r a l u p l i f t , and the preference fo r p la in l i v i n g and spartan ethics is deep in these men, I t was natural , therefore, that they began to regard the new rulers of Independent Ind ia w i t h some misg iv ing , seeing them as leaving the 'Gandhian way' ig-nor ing the villages, im i t a t i ng the 'West too soft to the 'bureaucracy', and far removed f r o m 'the people' and ' the pa r ty ' . A deep-lying hosti­l i t y to the urban elite and a sense of being kept out of power for long have given a sharp edge and lent an impatience to the i r struggle for po l i t i ca l ascendancy. They preach a re turn to the Gandhian way — in what manner they never explain — to the hard discipline that cha­racterised the 'movement ' to decent­ra l isa t ion of power and to the party 's control over the Government and the bureaucracy. In many ways these men share the ideals and temperament of the Sarvodayaites except in their view of pol i t ica l power. The i r approach to pol i t ics is dogmatic, self-righteous, presum­ptuous — only they know what the people want and on the whole,

cavalier.

It is possible to draw some paral­le l between the phases through w h i c h the movement fo r Indepen­dence passed and the phases of po l i t i ca l development since I n -depence. Corresponding to the libe­ral-Parl iamentary phase of the national movement is the phase in post-Independence, pol i t ica l deve­lopment that is now coming to a close, l iberal and universalist in outlook, tolerant to dissent, placing less emphasis on organisation and more on ideals, humane and aristo­crat ic in approach. The m i l i t a n t 'Gandhian ' phase in the style ( i f not the content) of pol i t ics ha? now begun w i t h the rise of the new ru r a l el i te to power.

w i t h the diffusion of power lower down the hierarchy, pol i t ics w i l l increasingly approximate to the dominant values of a t r ad i t i ona l , fragmented, society. I t is a k n o w n irony of the pol i t ics of backward­ness that the closer the po l i t i ca l process is to the people, the more au thor i t a r i an i t becomes. On the other hand, b r i n g i n g the po l i t i ca l process closer to the life-experience of the people is the one sure way of fighting backwardness. The d i lemma w i l l become more and more clear.

In a very real sense, this new phase in India 's pol i t ical develop­ment was inevitable. The urbanised leadership at the na t ional and State levels itself prepared the way for i t . In order to make i tse l f secure in its posit ion, the Congress leader­ship increasingly relied on the ru ra l vote, spreading its patronage deep in to the countryside, by con­t r o l l i n g credi t co-operatives, com­m u n i t y centres, local authori t ies, educational ins t i tu t ions , welfare agencies and other developmental organisations, i nc lud ing the volun-tary agencies. For a t ime th i s served the leadership w e l l ; they were provided w i t h appendages to the power that was really wielded by the Assembly, the Parl iament, and the State and Central Cabinets. In the process, however, a new leadership, neither designed for promoted, emerged. By tak ing hold of ins t i tu t ions wie ld ing patronage and the local pa r ty organisations, the new men slowly creeped in to the Congress organisation at the State level. The struggle over the selection of candidates for the f o r t h ' coming elections is an index of the g rowing cleavage between the new 'organisation man ' and the old-time po l i t i c i an . T h i s struggle has set the stage fo r the t h i r d phase of pol i t i ca l development.

I l l Emerging Pat tern of P a r t y

Politics

Politics of Backwardness

This is the beginning of the po l i ­tics of backwardness. T i l l now the in tegra t ing influence of the national leadership and local iner t ia or de­ference to those higher up l i m i t e d the p o l i t i c a l struggle to a loose ac-commodation between personalities, interest groups and factions. Now

The character of this struggle needs invest igat ion. To describe i t merely in terms of a rura l -urban cleavage would be an over-simpli­f icat ion. The cleavage is not sim­p l y one of o r i g i n or or ien ta t ion 2 .

2 In this sense, the analysis presented here differs from. Myron Werners in his study of West Bengal leadership.

These aspects are there b u t there is more to i t . For, essentially i t is a power struggle which , as it is g rowing , is becoming more and more complex, new alignments con. stantly cu t t ing across more simple d iv i s ion of interests.

Th i s is impor tan t . For , the men who are now r i s ing to power are, in their t u r n , facing fresh r ivals . This is already clear f rom the scramble for the Congress t icket for the coming elections. New fac­tions have arisen and alignments between factions at different levels in the hierarchy, inc luding the State and national levels s t i l l man­ned by the urban leaders, have been forged. The per iod after the elections w i l l see a fierce struggle between these faction-chains.

The consolidation of the organi­sational w i n g of the Congress pa r ty against the o ld guard is g i v i n g way to new rivalr ies among the organisers themselves. This and the i n a b i l i t y of the par ty to ac­commodate a l l claimants are of ut­most contemporary interest. Th i s is breaking entirely new ground in the development of par ty pol i t ics in the count ry . The most l ikely possibi l i ty is that impor t an t sec. tions of Congressmen — not s imply the frustrated and the ineffective as happened h i ther to — w i l l j o i n hands w i t h other parties, a t f i rs t i n fo rma l ­ly , then openly. The increasing i n c i ­dence of Congressmen w o r k i n g against official Congress candidates is a feature of Congress poli t ics. Al ready there are en bloc resigna­t ions; more w i l l fol low after the elections. Some of these dissidents may ret i re f r o m poli t ics but many w i l l j o i n other parties, for un l ike the dissidents in the first and se­cond General Elections, the dissi­dents th is t ime are men who have made po l i t i c a l a c t i v i t y the i r l i f e careers. They are also men w i t h considerable ins t i tu t iona l backing, confident of the i r strength, and not given to accept defeat l y ing down.

Prospect for the Opposition

This exodus w i l l strengthen op­posi t ion groups in the par t i cu la r areas, a l though th is in i tself i s no t enough to predic t the rise of a s trong national oppos i t ion . Oppo­si t ion parties in this country are

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largely State part ies or coalitions of State part ies . W h a t is l ike ly is tha t in different States, different part ies w i l l pose a threat to the Congress. The s t ruc tura l barr iers to any consolidation of this posi­t i o n by mergers and amalgamations are too great to be surmounted. Most oppos i t ion part ies are content to be powerfu l at the State level. But , even so, the opposit ion to the Congress is l ike ly to gain momen­t u m , at times due to shifts in elec­to ra l choice, more due to shifts of pol i t ic ians between parties.

Effective po l i t i ca l m o b i l i t y a t the present stage of po l i t i ca l deve-lopment in the country largely depends on the incidence of dissi-dence f r o m the Congress pa r ty ' For, that is the only means of b reak ing the Congress monopoly of power which is backed by pat ro-nage oppor tuni t ies and ins t i tu t ional support unprecedented in the his­tory of democrat ic parties. I t i s only when a sizeable section, along w i t h the organisations under their command, breaks away f r o m the Congress and jo ins the opposit ion that an opposi t ion pa r ty can gain real s trength. Such a development seems in the offing.

There is also another aspect of the s t ruggle w i t h i n Congress that needs to be noted. This is the various and compet ing foci of power. Here a shift in emphasis is becoming evident. The fami l i a r struggle between the organisational and governmental wings w i t h i n the pa r ty s t i l l aimed at control of the Government. Legislat ive seats and governmental power were the main objects of po l i t i ca l compet i t ion . The posi t ion is now changing. For, under the influence of the r o m a n t i ­cism in pol i t ies discussed above and the Gandhian ideology of the new elite, governmental power is being diffused to lower levels of au thor i ty . 'Democrat ic decentralisa­t i o n ' involves delegation of autho-r i t y to Ta lukas and Tehsils, to v i l ­lage Panchayats and Block-level Panchayat Samitis . Congressmen are beginning to realise the potent ia l i ­ties of th is delegation of au tho r i t y . Positions in panchayat samitis, dis. t r i c t co-operative banks, develop­ment boards, educational ins t i tu ­tions and Government-subsidised

vo lun ta ry agencies w i l l become no less a t t ract ive t han legislative and even governmental positions to a po l i t i c i an . A l r eady d u r i n g the last five years, Congressmen have be­gun to realise tha t real power is in the par ty organisation and other ins t i tu t ions , not in the legis­lature. Th i s feeling is l ike ly to spread.

A Parallel Bureaucracy ?

This has two impor t an t impl ica­tions- W h a t is commonly under­stood as transfer of power f r o m higher to the lower levels is really a transfer of power f r o m officials to non-officials. I t is taking away power f r o m the admin is t ra t ion and handing i t over to the po l i t i c i an . Th i s can have serious consequences. There w i l l rise "a paral lel bureau­cracy, one that is based on a di f ­ferent system of recrui tment , really on a Spoils system'. The r i va l ry between the two can undermine both the efficiency and the morale of the admin is t ra t ion . Second, there is the question of co-ordinat ion. F rom what is known, not enough thought has been given to how the functions handed over to the pan­chayat hierarchy and the functions retained by the bureaucracy are to be coordinated for the efficient exe­cut ion of policies. Here the danger is of f ragmentat ion of governmental power. rendering admin is t ra t ion dis jointed and inefficient and con­fusing the citizen by making h i m submit to so many authorit ies. The upshot w i l l be a drastic change i n the relat ionship between adminis­t ra t ion and poli t ics .

The other i m p l i c a t i o n is equally ominous. The spoils available at a l l these levels can solve the problem of dissensions in the Congress; those who are not given the t icket can be given charge of other organs of power ' Spheres of influence can be carved out . pol i t ica l skil ls specialised and the par ty 's sway over society widened. Some such adjustments are evident at the mo­ment w i t h i n the Congress. I f they increase sufficiently in scope, we w i l l have a monol i th ic par ty , com­mand ing all vantage positions of social and economic power, in effect becoming a State w i t h i n a State and the end of progress towards a democratic pa r ty system.

A l l available evidence indicates, however, that a steady strengthen­i n g of opposi t ion parties cannot be avoided for l o n g ; the struggle for power can no longer be 'contained' w i t h i n the Congress. B u t whi le i t is possible for other parties to i n ­crease their influence and even as­sume power in some States, the general paramountcy of pol i t ics over society may yet continue in each State. If such a development is not prevented, po l i t i cs w i l l not only become to ta l i ta r ian , i t w i l l also become chaotic, given the federal structure of Government.

Direction of Political Change

If the Labour pa r ty lost the elec­tions for the f o u r t h successive t ime, it would cease to the regarded as an al ternat ive Government. Br i t i sh democracy could then be said to have reached a dead end. This is the crucia l issue in all Parl iamen­tary democracies : how to effect a change in Government. So is i t in Ind ia . In f ac t Ind ia provides an interesting case study. For, change here does not take place through a known mechanism that has been stabilised and. in tu rn , legit imised by long usage (such as the two-par ty system in Eng land) . Pol i t ica l change in a developing system takes subtler forms and often defies com­prehension.

An attempt has been made here to examine the stages through which pol i t ica l development has passed in this count ry . The analy­sis is tentative and is meant to provide a basis for further investi­gat ion and discussion. I t suggests that India is in the throes of a pol i t ica l 'take-off'. The difference from a take-off in economic deve­lopment is that its d i rec t ion is not pre-planned or even predictable. Hav ing gained some momentum i t can take either of the two diametr i ­cally opposite direct ions; there may even be more than two alternative directions. The t akeof f stage in pol i t ics occurs when a society reaches the cross-roads in pol i t ical development. The future depends on the route along; which it then decides to move fo rward . The take-off in poli t ies is not necessarily a matter for celebration. But if we know the w i n d , we can chart our ship w i t h due preparat ion.

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