indicators essay - the fund for peace

8/3/2019 Indicators Essay - The Fund for Peace

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THE FAILED STATES INDEX | THE FUND FOR PEACE

Conflict AssessmentIndicators

The Fund for PeaceCountry Analysis Indicators

and Their Measures


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Copyright 2011The Fund for Peace

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in anyform or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace.

The Fund for Peace1720 I Street NW

7th FloorWashington, D.C. 20006

T: +1 202 223 7940F: +1 202 223 7947

www.fundforpeace.org

The Fund for Peace Publication CR-10-97-CA (11-05C)

Circulation: PUBLIC


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www.fundforpeace.org 3 The Fund for Peace

Contents

Conflict Assessment 4

A Quick Guide to the Indicators 5

Demographic Pressures 6

Refugees and IDPs 8

Group Grievance 9

Human Flight and Brain Drain 11

Uneven Economic Development 12

Poverty and Economic Decline 13

Legitimacy of the State 14

Public Services 15

Human Rights and Rule of Law 16

Security Apparatus 18

Factionalized Elites 19

External Intervention 20

About The Fund for Peace 21


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Conflict Assessment

The strength of the The Fund for Peaces conflict assessment is its

ability to distill millions of pieces of information into a form that

is relevant as well as easily digestible and informative.

Daily, The Fund for Peace collects thousands of

reports and information from around the

world, detailing the existing social, economic

and political pressures faced by each of the 177

countries that we analyze.

The Fund for Peaces software performs

content analysis on this collected information.

Through sophisticated search parameters and

algorithms, the CAST software separates the

relevant data from the irrelevant. Guided by 12

primary social, economic and political

indicators (each split into an average of 14 sub-

indicators), the CAST software analyzes the

collected information using specialized search

terms that flag relevant items. This analysis isthen converted using an algorithm into a score

representing the significance of each of the

various pressures for a given country.

The content analysis is further triangulated

with two other key aspects of the overall

assessment process: quantitative analysis and

qualitative inputs based on major events in the

countries examined. The scores produced by

the Fund for Peaces software are then

compared with a comprehensive set of vital

statisticsas well as human analysisto

ensure that the software has not misinterpreted

the raw data. Though the basic data underpin-

ning the Failed States Index is already freely

and widely available electronically, the

strength of the analysis is in the methodologi-

cal rigor and the systematic integration of a

wide range of data sources.

This manual provides an overview of the 12

indicators and their sub-indicators.


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A Quick Guide tothe Indicators

Twelve conflict risk indicators are used to measure the condition

of a state at any given moment. The indicators provide a snap-

shot in time that can be measured against other snapshots in a

time series to determine whetherconditions are improving or worsening.

Below is the list of indicators with suggested

measures (the data that you will be looking

for) that you will use to rate each indicator.

They are divided into social, economic, and

political/military categories. The measures

listed here are not exhaustive. You may citeothers. Certain indicators draw on quantita-

tive data (for example, Indicator #6) and others

utilize qualitative data (such as Indicator #3).

Rating the Indicators

Each Indicator is rated on a 1 to 10 scale with 1

(low) being the most stable and 10 (high) beingthe most at-risk of collapse and violence.

Think of it as trying to bring down a fever,

with high being dangerous and low being

acceptable.

To do the ratings, you should draw upon

obvious historical examples to guide your

understanding of the 1 to 10 scale. Thecomplete inability of the Somali government to

provide public services for its citizens would

warrant a score of 10 for Indicator #8.

Conversely, the extensive provision of health,

education and other public services by the

government of Sweden would produce a 1 or 2

for that same indicator. In another example,

the significant external presence of the U.S.-ledcoalition in Iraq or a UN peacekeeping mission

would garner a score of 10 for Indicator #12.

In contrast, while Myanmar faces significant

destabilizing factors captured in the other

indicators, its relative isolation from the

international community and external

influences would produce a much lower score

of 2 or 3 in Indicator #12.

It is important not to place an extreme amount

of importance on small scoring differences.

The larger trends and extensive data used that

provide your rationale for changes will make

the most valuable contribution to your expert

assessment.


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A Quick Guide to the Indicators

Mounting Demographic Pressures

Pressures deriving from high populationdensity relative to food supply, access to

safe water, and other life-sustaining

resources.

Pressures deriving from group settlement

patterns that affect the freedom to

participate in common forms of human

and physical activity, including economic

productivity, travel, social interaction,religious worship, etc.

Pressures deriving from group settlement

patterns and physical settings, including

border disputes, ownership or occupancy

of land, access to transportation outlets,

control of religious or historical sites.

Pressures from high population growthrates or skewed population distributions,

such as a "youth or age bulge," or sharply

divergent rates of population growth

among competing communal groups.

Pressures stemming from natural

disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, floods,

drought, etc.) creating human suffering

and deprivation. Pressures stemming from epidemics, such

as HIV/AIDS, bird flue, SARS, and other

contagious diseases.

Pressures stemming from environmental

hazards, infrastructure development that

uproots communities, and industrial

projects that threaten indigenous

populations.

Measures Possible questions to ask

Disease Control Is there a system for controlling spreading of diseasesor pandemics?

Disease Epidemics Is there a high likelihood or existence of diseases ofepidemics?

Environmental Policies Do sound environmental policies exist?

Environment Practices Are actual environmental practices sustainable?

Starvation Is there a short-term food shortage that needs to bealleviated?

Malnutrition Are there long-term food shortages affecting health?

Food supply Is the food supply adequate to deal with potentialinterruption?

Drought Is there are high likelihood of droughts or is there

currently a drought?HIV Aids Growth Rate What is the rate of spread of HIV Aids Infection cases -

most recent and projected?

Number Infected with HIV Aids How many HIV Aids cases are there?


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Land competition Does land competition it and are there laws toarbitrate land disputes?

Resource Competition Does resource competition it and are there laws toarbitrate resource disputes?

Likelihood of Natural Disasters Is a natural disaster likely, recurring?

Impact of Natural Disasters If a natural disaster occurs, is there an adequateresponse plan

Deforestation Has deforestation taking place or are there laws andpolicies to protect forests?

Water Supply Is there access to an adequate potable water supply?

Orphan Population Is there a high orphan population?

Population Density Is population density putting pressure on areas of thestate?

Population Distribution Does the country have a normal population distributed

- actual and projected?Population Growth Is the population growth rate sustainable?

Infant Mortality What is the infant mortality rate - actual andprojected?


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Massive Movement of Refugees or IDPs

Forced uprooting of large communities as a

result of random or targeted violence and/or

repression, causing food shortages, disease,

lack of clean water, land competition, and

turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitar-

ian and security problems, both within and

between countries. This indicator refers to

refugees leaving or entering a country.


Number of IDPs How many IDPs are there in relation to population?

Increase in IDPs Are IDPs likely to increase in the near future?

Impact of IDPs Are there resources to provide for projected and actualIDPs?

Influx of Refugees Are refugees likely to come from neighboring countries?

Impact of Refugees Are there resources to provide for projected and actualrefugees?

Increase in Refugee Camps Are there sufficient refugee camps or are refugees inte-grated into communities?

Violence against Refugees Are there reports of violence against refugees?

Safety of Refugee Camps Are conditions safe in refugee camps?

Relief Efforts Is there access to additional resources from internationalcommunity for refugees and/or IDPs?

Relocation & Settlement Are there plans for relocation and settlement of currentIDPs and/or refugees?



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Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking

Group Grievance or Paranoia

History of aggrieved communal groupsciting injustices of the past, sometimes

going back centuries.

Pattern of atrocities committed with

impunity against communal groups.

Specific groups singled out by state

authorities, or by dominant groups, for

persecution or repression.

Institutionalized political exclusion.

Public scapegoating of groups believed tohave acquired wealth, status or power as

evidenced in the emergence of hate

radio, pamphleteering, and stereotypical

or nationalistic political rhetoric.

Groups aggrieved because they are

denied autonomy, self-determination or

political independence



Compensation for Victims Are victims of past atrocities compensated or is theira plan to compensate them?

Truth & Reconciliation Does a Truth & Reconciliation process exist or is oneplanned, needed?

Distribution of Resources Is there an equitable and efficient distribution of

resources?

Ethnic Hatred or Tolerance Are there feelings of or reports of ethnic violence?

Religious Hatred or Tolerance Are there feelings of or reports of violence based onreligion?

Group Oppression Are groups oppressed or do they feel oppressed?

Reintegration Have groups been reintegrated, if applicable?

History of Group Grievance Is there a history of violence against a group orgroup grievance?

Intertribal Relations How are intertribal relations?

Interethnic Relations How are interethnic relations?

Vigilante Justice Are there reports of vigilant justice?

War Criminals Are war criminals apprehended and prosecuted? Dothe public feel war criminals are properly treated?

Mass Violence Are the reports of mass violence?

Racial Violence Are there reports of violence that is racially moti-vated?


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Mass Killings Are there reports of mass killings?

Reconstruction Is there a plan for reconstruction and development?

Religious Persecution or Tolerance Is there freedom of religion accoring to laws andpracticed by society?

Religious Violent Persecution Are there reports of violence that is religiously moti-vated?

Amnesty Has amnesty been granted?



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Chronic and Sustained Human Flight

and Brain Drain


Brain Drain Is there a relatively high proportion of higher educated peopleleaving the country?

Remittances Are there a large amount of remittances coming to familiesfrom relatives overseas?

Political Drain or Return Are politicians leaving the country?

Professional Flight Are professionals leaving the country?

Return of Middle Class Is the middle class beginning to return to the country?

Brain drain of professionals, intellectu-als and political dissidents fearing

persecution or repression.

Voluntary emigration of "the middle

class", particularly economically

productive segments of the population,

such as entrepreneurs, businesspeople,

artisans and traders, due to economic

deterioration.

Growth of exile communities and

Diasporas.



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Uneven Economic Development

Along Group Lines


Discriminatory Economics Is the economic system discriminatory?Economic Equality - Gap Is there a large economic gap?

Economic Justice Does economic justice exist?

Free Education Does free education exist and if so, to which grade?

Equal Education Is the education provided relatively equal?

Fair Housing Is there a housing system for the poor?

Existence of Ghettos or Slums Do ghettos and slums exist?

Hiring Practices Are hiring practices generally fair - legally and theperception of others?

Job Training Do programs for job training exist?

Job Training Use Do people know about the job training and is it avail-able based on qualification and need?

Social System Do equal rights exist in the society?

Equal Rights Legislation Are there laws protecting equal rights?

Group-based inequality, or perceivedinequality, in education and economic

status.

Group-based impoverishment as

measured by poverty levels, infant

mortality rates, educational levels, etc.

Rise of communal nationalism based onreal or perceived group inequalities.



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Poverty, Sharp and/or

Severe Economic Decline

A pattern of progressive economic declineof the society as a whole as measured by

per capita income, GNP, debt, child

mortality rates, poverty levels, business

failures, etc.

Sudden drop in commodity prices, trade

revenue, or foreign investment.

Collapse or devaluation of the national

currency.

Extreme social hardship imposed byeconomic austerity programs.

Growth of hidden economies, including

the drug trade, smuggling, and capital

flight.

Increase in levels of corruption and illicit

transactions among the general populace.

Perceived group inequalities.


Government Debt What is the government debt?

Interest Rates How are the interest rates - actual and projected?

Inflation Rate How is the inflation rate - actual and projected?

Consumer Confidence How do people view the economy?

National Economy How do experts view the economy?

Productivity What is the productivity?

GDP What is the GDP - actual and projected?

Unemployment How is the unemployment - current and rate ofunemployment?

Economic Focus Does one product make up the majority of theeconomy?

Business Climate for FDI Is the business climate attractive to FDI?

Business Climate for Entrepreneurship Do the laws and access to capital allow forinternal entrepreneurship?



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Criminalization and/or

Delegitimization of the State

Massive and endemic corruption orprofiteering by ruling elites.

Resistance of ruling elites to transparency,

accountability and political representa-

tion, revealed by scandals, investigative

journalism, criminal prosecution or civil

action.

Widespread loss of popular confidence instate institutions and processes, e.g.,

widely boycotted or flawed elections,

mass public demonstrations, sustained

civil disobedience, inability of the state to

collect taxes, resistance to military

conscription, rise of armed insurgencies.

Growth of crime syndicates linked to

ruling elites.Measures Possible questions to ask

Armed Insurgents Are there reports of armed insurgents and attacks?

Suicide Bombers Have there been suicide bombings and how likelyare they?

Corruption of Federal Officials Is there evidence of corruption on the part of federalofficials?

Accusation of Corruption of FederalOfficials Are federal officials considered to be corrupt?

Corruption of Local Officials Are local officials considered to be corrupt?

Accusation of Corruption of LocalOfficials

Are local officials considered to be corrupt?

Perception of Elections Are elections perceived to be free and fair?

Monitoring of Elections Have elections been monitored and reported as freeand fair?

Confidence in Government Does the government have the confidence of thepeople?

Makeup of Government Is the government representative of the population?

Most recent Leadership Transition Have there been recent peaceful transitions ofpower?

History of Leadership Transitions What is the longer term history of transition ofpower?

Political Rights Do political rights for all parties exist?

Political Assassinations Are there reports of politically motivated attacksand assassinations?

Riots & Uprisings Have riots occurred?

Peaceful Demonstrations Have peaceful demonstrations occurred



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Progressive Deterioration

of Public Services

Disappearance of basic state functionsthat serve the people, including failure to

protect citizens from terrorism and

violence and to provide essential services,

such as health, education, sanitation,

public transportation, etc.

State apparatus narrows to those agenciesthat serve the ruling elites, such as

security agencies, presidential staff, the

central bank, the diplomatic service,

customs and collection agencies, etc.


Access to Housing Do the poor have access to adequate housing?

Housing Costs Are housing costs in line with the general economy?

Education Enrollment What is the level of school enrollment? Different forboys and girls?

Literacy Rates What are the literacy rates? Different for boys andgirls?

Fuel Supply Is there an adequate supply of fuel?

Access to Medicine Do people have adequate access to medicines?

Number of Clinics or Hospitals Are there an adequate number of medical facilities forthe population?

Number of Physicians Are there an adequate number of medicalprofessionals for the population?

Infant Mortality What is the infant mortality rate - actual andprojected?

Potable Water Is there access to an adequate potable water supply?

Public Services Equality Is there equal access to public services?

Public Services General What are the general conditions of public services?

Roads Are roads adequate and safe?

Sanitation Is sanitation system adequate?

Airports Are there adequate airports for sustainabledevelopment?

Railroads Are there adequate railroads for sustainabledevelopment?



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Suspension of the Rule of Law

and Widespread Violation of Human Rights

Emergence of authoritarian, dictatorial ormilitary rule in which constitutional and

democratic institutions and processes are

suspended or manipulated.

Outbreak of politically inspired (as

opposed to criminal) violence against

innocent civilians.

Rising number of political prisoners or

dissidents who are denied due processconsistent with international norms and

practices.

Widespread abuse of legal, political andsocial rights, including those of individu-

als, groups and institutions (e.g.

harassment of the press, politicization of

the judiciary, internal use of military for

political ends, public repression of

political opponents).



Child Labor Are there child labor laws or reports of child labor?

Civil Rights Are there civil rights laws and are civil rights protected?

Communal Rights Do communal rights exist and are they protected?

Labor Rights Do labor rights exist and are they protected?

Legal System If rights are not protected, is there a legal system in which thatcan be addressed?

Minority Rights Do communal rights exist and are they protected?

Access to Information Is there equal access to information?

Freedom of Movement Is there freedom of movement?

Arbitrary Arrests Are there accusations or reports of arbitrary arrests? Are thesestate-sponsored?

Illegal Detention Are there accusations or reports of illegal detention? Are thesestate-sponsored?

Political Rights Do political rights exist and are they protected?

Power Sharing Is there a process and system that encourages political powersharing?

Prison Conditions How are the prison conditions?

Fair Trials Do accused receive a fair and timely trial? Is this equal for all?


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Religious Freedom Does religious freedom exist?

Religious Extremism Does religious extremism exist?

Forced Relocation Are groups forced to relocate?

Compensation forRelocation

If relocation occurs, is there a system that ensures propercompensation?

Right to Life Is the right to life protected for all citizens?

Torture Are there reports of state- or group-sponsored torture?

Freedom of Speech Are there laws protecting freedom of speech?

Existence ofIndependent Media

Does an independent media exist? Do its reporters feel free topublish accusations against those in power?

Systemic Violation ofRights

Is there a history of systemic violation of rights by thegovernment or entity therein?




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Rise of Factionalized Elites

Fragmentation of ruling elites and stateinstitutions along ethnic, class, clan, racial

or religious lines.

Use of nationalistic political rhetoric by

ruling elites, often in terms of communal

irredentism (e.g., a "greater Serbia") or of

communal solidarity (e.g., ethnic

cleansing" or defending the faith").

Absence of legitimate leadership widelyaccepted as representing the entire

citizenry.


Concentration of Wealth Is wealth concentrated in the hands of a few?

Growing Middle Class Is there a burgeoning middle class?

Fragmentation Are there factionalized elites, tribal elites and/orfringe groups? How powerful are they?

National Identity Is there a sense of national identity?

Law Are the laws democratic or extreme?

Leadership Is the leadership fairly elected?

Nationalism How strong are feelings of nationalism?

Representation in Judicial System Is the judicial system representative of the population?

Representation in Military Is the military representative of the population?

Control of Resources Does any one group or party control the majority ofresources?

Distribution of Resources Are resources fairly distributed?

Revenue Distribution Does the government adequately distribute wealththrough its tax system and taxes

Extremist Rhetoric Does hate radio and media exist?

Political Reconciliation Is there a political reconciliation process?

Separatism Are there calls for separatism?

Stereotyping Is religious, ethnic, or other stereotyping prevalent andis there scape-goating?

Cross Cultural Respect Does cross-cultural respect exist?



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Intervention of Other States

or External Political Actors

Military or paramilitary engagement,both covert and overt, in the internal

affairs of the state at risk by outside

armies, states, identity groups, or entities

that affect the internal balance of power

or the resolution of conflict.

Economic intervention by outside powers,

including multilateral organizations,

through large-scale loans, development

projects, or foreign aid, such as ongoing

budget support, control of finances, or

management of the states economic

policy, creating economic dependency.

Humanitarian or strategic military

intervention into an internal conflict or for

regime change.


Covert Intervention Are covert operations taking place?

Economic Intervention or Aid Is the country receiving economic aid?

Dependency on Aid Is the country dependent on economic aid?

External Support for Factions Is there external support for factions opposed to thegovernment?

Military Attacks Across Borders Are military attacks from other countries occurring?

Presence of Foreign Troops Are foreign troops present?

Military Assistance Is there external military assistance?

Military Training Are there military training exercises with other nationsor support of military training from other states?

Peacekeeping Is there a peacekeeping operation on the ground?

Training of Police Is there external support for police training?



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We promote sustainable security through

research, training and education, engagement

of civil society, building bridges across diverse

sectors, and developing innovative technolo-

gies and tools for policy makers.

A leader in the conflict assessment and early

warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on

the problems of weak and failing states. Our

objective is to create practical tools and

approaches for conflict mitigation that are

useful to decision-makers.

The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach

to the issues stemming from weak and failing

states. We work at both the grassroots level

with civil society actors and at policy levels

with key decision makers. We have worked in

over 50 countries with a wide range of partners

in all sectors: governments, international

organizations, the military, nongovernmental

organizations, academics, journalists, civil

society networks, and the private sector.

The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of

initiatives focused on our central objective of

promoting sustainable security, the ability of a

state to solve its own problems peacefully

without an external military or administrative

presence.


Conflict EarlyWarning andAssessment

TransnationalThreats

SustainableDevelopment,Sustainable Security

AboutThe Fund for Peace

The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3)

non-profit research and educational organization that works to

prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security.

Ken Brill

President

T: +1 202 223 7947 ext. 207

E: [email protected]

Krista Hendry

Executive Director

T: +1 202 223 7947 ext. 212

E: [email protected]

Contact Us for More Information

J. J. Messner

Senior Associate

T: +1 202 223 7947 ext. 206

E:[email protected]


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