industrial risk management

8/9/2019 Industrial Risk Management

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Rome | September 11th, 2014

Industrial Risk

Management

Distribution, Romania

Banat and Dobrogea


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3

Industrial Risk Management in Distribution

urpose and !ey rin"iples

#ith the purpose o$ optimizing capex allocation whilst maximizing servicequality levels and targeted return on investment1%

&ote 1' $rom (%D% )*2 dated 31+0*+2014, responsibilities o$ lobal In$rastru"tures and &et-orks .usiness /ine

Identi$ying

risks a$$e"ting

the continuity

o$ the

distribution

business

Identi$ying the

most criticalassets and

processes

a$$e"ting

unplanned

maintenance

costsand

service quality

Aggregating

risk measures

at ompany+

ountry+Diision

leel thus

allo-ing

omogeneous

comparisons

among

distribution

net-orks -ithinthe roup

Merging

te"hni"al risk

measures -ith

releantRegulatory

!rame"orks

thus ealuating

impa"t o$

industrial risks

on Distribution

.usiness

economic

margins

Simulating the

e$$i"ien"y+

e$$e"tieness o$

dierse

investment

plans in terms

o$ "osts+risk

redu"tion

keya"tiities


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Monitored #$Is

4

Industrial Risk Management in Distributionro"esses and te"hni"al !Is

Business

Development

$ro%ectDevelopment and

&onstruction

'perationand

Maintenance

nplanned Maintenan"e nplanned Interruptions

osts su$$ered $or reparation

or substitution o$

damaged "omponents

S5IDI, D6, 7 S5I8I, 86, 7 9:;M: ustomers (utages :6R< /(& (=56S

Industrial Risk Management contri"utes to #rotect the Grou# Distri"ution $om#anies fromundesired e%ents which ma& affect the industrial value and the continuity of the

business


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Industrial Risk Management in Distributionort$olio+drill do-n analysis

Any cross(cutting port)olio analysis or spe"i$i" vertical drill(do"n

onstanta &et-ork 5rea

alarasi &et-ork 5rea

olo S/

Dobrogea

Distribuzione

ossibility o$ "omparing di$$erent ountries -ith mature or gro-ing market,

thus identi)ying te most pro)itable investments opportunities


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*


8o"us on 6>traordinary Risk models

eismic response models )or

$rimary ubstations and M-.M-

substations

/- lines, $rimary ubstations, M-.M-

substations, 0

Meteorological Risk )or /- and M- lines

and !looding Risk in $rimary

ubstations

International databases are used to set re$eren"e alues

Site isits are per$ormed by releant e>perts -hose ealuation is used as an input in the models

*artquake AssessmentsMeteorological and !looding

Assessments*quipment Breakdo"n


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?


=he methodology

5ll the in$ormation are integrated and elaborated in a probabilistic engine to

"al"ulate the e+pected and une+pected impact o$ industrial risks

&et-ork

Mapping

9istori"al Data

Risk (-ner6aluation

Risk 6>pert6aluation

6>ternal .en"hmarks

@ D.s

ecnical

per$orman"es o$

the 5ssets

!Is A

RiskBDire"t osts, S5IDI,

S5I8I, 7C

Industrial Risk Models andMonte &arlo simulations


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*conomicper$orman"es o$

the 5ssets*BIDA2Risk


6"onomi" !Is and ontingeny lans

Dire"t osts

=e"hni"al !Is

Mitigation 5"tions

=he Industrial Risk Management $rame-ork allo-s to "ombine Risk models -ith Regulatory)rame"orks, in order to measure the impa"t o$ industrial risks on ompany *bitda%

It is possible to sele"t the best te"hni"al mitigation plans and to measure the e>tent o$ their

e))iciency.e))icacyin terms o$ "osts+risk redu"tion% ositie e$$e"ts o$ di$$erent mitigation plans

on ompany 6bitda "an be measured%

Regulatory8rame-ork


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12


Impa"t o$ Industrial Risk on ompany 6.I=D5, :aR 201

)*,*)),2),*

1.83.17 1.83.171.83.171.83.17

1.83.17

1+2*+1

1.83.17

1+2*+1

1.8

3.1

7

1+2*+1

1.83.17

+-.+/

1.83.1

7

+-.+/ BA9A 8417*BIDA 2 Ind5 Risk

:M;*Adue to rimary Substations "ontribution B$rom

0,3 M at 6: up to 1, M at :aR HC %

)?,3)*,

1.83.171.83.17 1.83.17

1.83.17

1+2*+1

1.83.17

1.83.171.8

3.17

1+2*+1

+-.+/ 1+2*+1

1.83.17

+-.+/

1.83.1

7

D'BR'>*A 8417

*BIDA 2 Ind5 Risk

:M;imum Re-ard+enalties are set eual to N 4H In"omes $rom 6nergy DistributionL

3C remium+enalties are "al"ulated at &et-ork 5rea leel depending upon the S5IDI and S5I8I re"oery and the total amount o$ 6nergy distributed in the releant &et-ork

5rea


14/58

14

Industrial Risk Management in Distributionontribution by &et-ork 5rea in .5&5=

1.83.17

1.83.17

1.83.17

1.83.17

1.83.17

9ypothesiFing a Regulatory 8rame-ork on o-er Guality "onsidering both the AIDI and AI!I leels

in the areas and sie o) 9et"ork Areas in terms o) *nergy Distributed,

imisoara -ould hae the most signi$i"ant impa"t on both 6: and :aR alues in .5&5=

Direct costs :M;2,:: L/

customers8 26 "/ customers 5.9 "9 L/ customers an( 9

"/ customers 589 "


22/58

1C 5R6&5 /6&I;/6&I SD, 5R(S6&I;/6&I SD, .5R M5R6;5R6&5 /6&I, 5R(S6&I;RI5&I, /6&I SD;RI5&IL

2C S55/5O;IM=, =IMIS(5R5;5DR65 :6RD6, 5DR65 :6RD6;IM=L

3C R6SI=5;M(IR 1, R6SI=5;M(IR 2L

4C 5&I&(5S5;6=R(S5&I 8R, :/5&;/I:6O6&I, /(&65;6=RI/5, 5RIS(5R5;6=R(S5&I SD, 5R(S6&I;.5R M5R6;5&I&(5S5 I, 5R(S6&I;5RIS(5R5,.5R M5R6;/(&65, 6=R(S5&I 8R;6=RI/5, 5R(S6&I;:/5&, 6=RI/5;/I:6O6&I, 6=RI/5;6=R(S5&I SD%

22

Industrial Risk Management in Distribution.5&5=' "riti"al assets $or 9:;M: ustomers

/-(M- &ustomers

Binterrupted k#C

&ritical asset at *-

Ordinary Risk

D*-A/- I9*

Grou* : 571

IMI'ARA/- I9*

Grou* >-T 527

8D*-A

$RIMARF =BAI'9LA"INA$E 0@9/

6

D*-A$RIMARF =BAI'91ET$ILA 0@20@9/

C

IMI'ARAM- I9*

A20 IAZ "UNTELE "IC-TELU $SU $E

7

1

8

D*-A$RIMARF =BAI'9

1ET$ILA 0@20@9/

6

C

7

D*-A$RIMARF =BAI'9

LA"INA$E 0@9/

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+11+2*+1

1+2*+11+2*+1

1+2*+11+2*+1

1+2*+11+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

/-(M- &ustomers

Binterrupted k#C&ritical asset at -aR@@

+xtraordinary Risk

1+2*+1 1+2*+1

IMI'ARA/- I9*

Grou* >-$ 5;7

D*-A/- I9*Grou* : 57

D*-A/- I9*

Grou* . 5:7


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23

Industrial Risk Management in Distribution.5&5=' assets -hi"h may lead to :ery long outages

-ery ong 'utages

BustomersPh+targetC

&ritical asset at -aR@@

+xtraordinary Risk

IMI'ARA/- I9*

Grou* :-$ 571

ARAD- 9*G'R#

NADA ZNA INDUST$IALA

8D*-A

/- I9*

Grou* ;527

6

IMI'ARA$RIMARF =BAI'93$ATELIA 0@20@0/

C

D*-AM- I9*

A9 1A 2 1ET$SANI L2-1ET$SANI SUD D/

7

H

3

IMI'ARA- 9*G'R#

TI"ISA$A ZNA 1L1I

@

14

IMI'ARA$RIMARF =BAI'9

"USICESCU 0@20 /

ARAD$RIMARF =BAI'9

1LTU$A 0@20 /

ARAD$RIMARF =BAI'9"U$ESEL 0@20@9 /

ARADM- I9*

A20 SE"LAC-1ECICA A$

1+2*+1

1+2*+1 1+2*+11+2*+1

1+2*+1

+-.+/1+2*+1

+-.+/

+-.+/

1+2*+1

+-.+/+-.+/

1+2*+1

+-.+/1+2*+1

1+2*+1

+-.+/

1+2*+1

+-.+/+-.+/

+-.+/1+2*+1

+-.+/

+-.+/1+2*+1

1C 5&I&5;(&(R, (R5:I=5;M(/D(:5 &(5 1, (R5:I=5;M(/D(:5 &(5 2, (&(R;M(/D(:5 &(5, M(/D(:5 &(5;S85&=56/6&5, =(/6=;(O/5, =(/6=;RS(:5=, 5RM6&IS;(5R=5, 8R 5R5&S6.6S;.5/=5 S5R5=5, R6SI=5;5&I&5, .5/=5S5R5=5;5RM6&IS, R6SI=5;8R 5R5&S6.6S, R6SI=5;ID5&(:I=5, R6SI=5;(R5:I=5, ID5&(:I=5;(R5:I=5, RS(:5=;

(5R=5, I5O;8R 5R5&S6.6S, (O/5;S85&=5 6/6&5%

2C (R5S=I6;SI.(=, D66.5/;D6:5 8R, 5/5&;IM(, SIM6RI5;5/5&, MI&=I5;D66.5/, IM(;(R5S=I6, 95SD5=;5/5&, D6:58R;6S=IS, D6:5 8R;SIM6RI5%%


24/58

Industrial Risk Management in DistributionD(.R(65 201 :aR J ontribution by &et-ork 5rea

24

1.83.171.83.171.83.17

D'BR'>*A 8417

Direct &osts :k;*A 8417

AIDI :min.customer*A 8417

AI!I :num.customerample o$ drill;do-n analysis

D'BR'>*A 8417AIDI :min.customer L/

customers an( "/ customer,

T%e line is 2: 'm long8 e)ui**e(

+it% ageing and damaged

insulators and conductors, T%e

line su**lies 2,6>: L/ customers,

T%e line is >9 'm long8 e)ui**e( +it%

ageing insulators and conductors, T%e

line crosses a ri=er an( #// m o)

conductors%oul( be re*lace( b

underwater cable, T%ere are fre)uent

the)ts events, T%e line su**lies ;,::9 L/

customers an( : "/ customers 5089 "


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2?

Industrial Risk Management in Distribution(&S=5&=5 &et-ork 5rea' "riti"al assets at :aRH Be>traordinary riskC

Direct &osts :k;9 L/

customers an( ;0 "/ customers 56 "26 1T 62& CT

$RIMARF =BAI'9CENT$U I 0@20@0 /

T%is line 502 'm7 crosses the Danube

Delta8 an( is a fee(er of t%e 1S Crisan, T%e

line is only accessible by boatan( crosses

an area +it% %ig% (ensit of vegetation8 it

also %as *roblems +it% birdst%at cause

interru*tions, T%e line su**lies 0>: L/

customers an( 2 "/ customer 5086 "


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2

Industrial Risk Management in DistributionD(.R(65' "riti"al assets $or 9:;M: ustomers

/-(M- &ustomers

Binterrupted k#C&ritical asset at *-

Ordinary Risk

&'9A9A/- I9*

Grou* ;0-CT 571

&'9A9AM- I9*

L 20 / &&0; TL

8&'9A9A

/- I9*Grou* .-CT 527

6

&'9A9AM- I9*LES 20 / 0;; CA$AGEA CT

C

&'9A9A$RIMARF =BAI'9

SA$INASU3 0@20 /

7

1

8

6

C

7

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+11+2*+1

1+2*+11+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+11+2*+1

/-(M- &ustomers

Binterrupted k#C&ritical asset at -aR@@

+xtraordinary Risk

1+2*+11+2*+1

&AARAI$RIMARF =BAI'9

LTENITA SUD 0@20 /

&'9A9A/- I9*

Grou* .-CT 527

&'9A9A/- I9*

Grou* ;0-CT 57

&'9A9A/- I9*

Grou* &-CT 5;7

&'9A9A/- I9*Grou* ;-CT 5:7

1C M6DIDI5 SD;8M 2 B1C, M6DIDI5 SD;8M 2 B2CL

2C MIR65 :(D5;=(R=(M5&;6R&5:(D5 1, MIR65 :(D5;=(R=(M5&;6R&5:(D5 2L

3C .5S5R5.I;M6DIDI5 SD 1, .5S5R5.I;M6DIDI5 SD 2L

4C SI/IS=65;M6DIDI5 &(RD, =(5/;M6DIDI5 &(RD, 95RS(:5;SI/IS=65, 95RS(:5;=(5/%


30/58

30

Industrial Risk Management in DistributionD(.R(65' assets -hi"h may lead to :ery long outages

-ery ong 'utages

BustomersPh+targetC&ritical asset at -aR@@

+xtraordinary Risk

&AARAI/- I9*

Grou* 2-C 571

&'9A9A$RIMARF =BAI'9

AAT$ 0@20@0 /

8&'9A9A

$RIMARF =BAI'9CENT$U I 0@20@0 /

6

&AARAI$RIMARF =BAI'9U$ZICENI 0@20 /

C

&'9A9A$RIMARF =BAI'9TULCEA $AS 0@20@9 /

7

H

3

&AARAI$RIMARF =BAI'9

UDESTI 0@20 /

@

14

&AARAIM- I9*

L 20 / CC$A SL

&'9A9A$RIMARF =BAI'9"EDGIDIA N$D 0@9 /

&AARAI$RIMARF =BAI'9SLZIA SUD 0@20 /

&AARAI$RIMARF =BAI'9LTENITA SUD 0@20 /

1+2*+1

1+2*+11+2*+11+2*+1

1+2*+1+-.+/

1+2*+1+-.+/

1+2*+1

+-.+/

1+2*+1+-.+/

1+2*+1

+-.+/

1+2*+1+-.+/

+-.+/

1+2*+1+-.+/

1+2*+1

+-.+/

+-.+/1+2*+1

1C DR55/I&5;5/5R5SI, I6=R(I;86=6S=I, 5/5R5SI;I6=R(I, S/(.(OI5 SD;DR55/I&5%


31/58

31

Industrial Risk Management in DistributionD(.R(65' spe"i$i" risk in onstanta

Medgidia ud ( Basarabi /- line

Medgidia ud ( !&M II /- line

11 eptember 8416

ickness o) steel "as reduced )rom

18 mm to 1 mm because o) corrosion

&I/(&'R o"ers :lo" grade steel< "eredesigned by te Institute )or tudies and

$o"er *ngineering :Romania< in 1@3, a)ter1@8 construction o) tis type o) to"ers "as

abandoned5

3resently there are 4!! (5"(OR 'owers in(onstanta and 2/0 in 'ulcea6


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*conomic per)ormanceso) te Assets

*BIDA2Risk

32

Direct &osts

ecnical #$Is

Mitigation Actions

#hen the industrial risk measurement is "ompleted, it is possible to identi$y the most "riti"al assets in the

&et-ork 5rea and identi$y potential te"hni"al mitigation plans%

=he e>tent o$ their e))iciency.e))icacy"an be measured in terms o$ costs.risk reduction and in terms o$

impa"t on &ompany *BIDA%

Regulatory!rame"ork

Industrial Risk Management in DistributionMitigation lans 5nalysis

In "arrying out the mitigation plans analysis $or Banat and Dobrogea, the most "riti"al assets hae been

taken into a""ount%

8or ea"h o$ them a potential te"hni"al solution has been proided and its e$$i"ien"y in terms o$ risk

redu"tion has been "al"ulated%

6a"h mitigation a"tion is proided -ith a priority order-ithin the releant ompany and de$ined as critical,

=er %ig%, %ig%priority%


33/58

33

Industrial Risk Management in DistributionMitigation lans 5nalysis ; .5&5=

5SSM=I(&S 5&D &(=6S

1C 5&R6 targets are set "onsidering a H improement in S5IDI and 4H improement in S5I8I -ith respe"t to 2014 $ore"ast alues BS5IDI 243 min+"ust, S5I8I ,) int+"ustCL

2C Ma>imum Re-ard+enalties are set eual to N 4H In"omes $rom 6nergy DistributionL3C Re-ard+enalties are "al"ulated at &et-ork 5rea leel depending upon the S5IDI and S5I8I re"oery and the total amount o$ 6nergy distributed in the releant &et-ork 5rea

4C In"rease o$ &et-ork =ari$$ due to higher R5. is not "onsidered%

Mitigation $lan costsJ

BA9A6456H15444 ;

.5&5= 9: &et-ork 21%3*%000

5R5D M:+/: &et-ork 21%000

D6:5 M:+/: &et-ork 4%4)*%000

=IMIS(5R5 M:+/: &et-ork 4%304%000

1+2*+1

+-.+/

1.83.17

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1.83.17 +-.+/1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1.83.17

1+2*+1

1+2

*+1

+-.+/

1+2*+1

$ositive e))ect o) mitigation plans on

Direct &osts :M;imum Re-ard+enalties are set eual to N 4H In"omes $rom 6nergy DistributionL3C Re-ard+enalties are "al"ulated at &et-ork 5rea leel depending upon the S5IDI and S5I8I re"oery and the total amount o$ 6nergy distributed in the releant &et-ork 5rea

4C In"rease o$ &et-ork =ari$$ due to higher R5. is not "onsidered%

Mitigation $lan costsJ

D'BR'>*A 1@5C465444 ;

D(.R(65 9: &et-ork 13%)?4%000

5/5R5SI M:+/: &et-ork 4%2?2%000

(&S=5&=5 M:+/: &et-ork 1%43*%000

1.83.171.83.17

1.83.17

1+2*+1

+-.+/1+2*+1

1+2*+1

+-.+/1+2*+1

1+2

*+1

+-.+/1+2*+1

1+2*+1

1+2*+1

$ositive e))ect o) mitigation plans on

Direct &osts :M;isting surge arresters -ith metal;o>ide surge arresters

Critical11/43

DEVA MV NET(OR)A20 ,ATEG-CALA*STREI #V

M: grid meshing bet-een 520 95=6;5/5& S=R6I D: and 520 5S=5;(R5S=I6 D: B kmC; re$urbishment o$ the main $eeder Brepla"ement o$ damaged insulators, "ondu"tors, seeral polesand bra"kets on 30 km o$ the M: lineC

Critical13/43

TIMISOARA MV NET(OR)A20 "A*ASTIUR-FAGETT"

Repla"ement o$ damaged insulators, "ondu"tors, seeral poles and bra"kets on * km o$ the M:line and repla"ement o$ e>isting surge arresters -ith metal;o>ide surge arresters

V!r" Hi#$1%/43

TIMISOARA MV NET(OR)A20 LABASI*T-LUGOJT"+AR

Repla"ement o$ damaged insulators B$or 200 poles o$ the main $eederC and repla"ement o$ e>istingsurge arresters -ith metal;o>ide surge arresters B1 pie"esC

V!r" Hi#$1&/43 DEVA MV NET(OR)A20 CASTAU-ORASTIE#VRepla"ement o$ damaged insulators, "ondu"tors, seeral poles and bra"kets on 23 km o$ the M:line

V!r" Hi#$1*/43

DEVA MV NET(OR)A20 BALO"IR-ORASTIE#V

Repla"ement o$ damaged insulators, "ondu"tors, seeral poles and bra"kets on 4? km o$ the M:line, repla"ement o$ e>isting surge arresters and grounding installation o$ 10 pole mountedsubstationsL substitution o$ 3 pole mounted trans$ormers

V!r" Hi#$1'/43

DEVA MV NET(OR)A20 A"-ILIA #VRepla"ement o$ 3 pole mounted trans$ormers, repla"ement o$ 2 dis"onne"tors B$or se"ondarybran"hesC

V!r" Hi#$20/43

TIMISOARA MV NET(OR)A20 "ASLOC-ORTISOARA T"+AR

Repla"ement o$ damaged insulators, "ondu"tors, seeral poles and bra"kets on 10 km o$ the M:line, repla"ement o$ e>isting surge arresters -ith metal;o>ide surge arresters Bin"luding surgearresters $or se"ondary substationsC

V!r" Hi#$24/43

ARAD LV NET(OR) SA*TA*A Substitution o$ * km o$ oerhead bare "ondu"tors -ith aerial "ables


38/58

3?

Industrial Risk Management in DistributionMitigation lans 5nalysis J .5&5=, M: and /: &et-ork

$riority order 9et"ork Area Asset ype Asset 9ame Mitigation Description

V!r" Hi#$2/43

DEVA MV NET(OR)A20 "I*A BOITA-,ATEG#V

Re$urbishment o$ km o$ the M: line' repla"ement o$ damaged insulators, "ondu"tors, seeralpoles and bra"kets o$ the lineL moderniFing o$ 3 pole mounted substationsL repla"ement o$ e>istingsurge arresters and e>isting grounding installation $or 10 pole mounted substations

V!r" Hi#$2%/43

TIMISOARA MV NET(OR)A20 "OL#OVA *OUA-COLA RE

&e- M: line B40 kmC starting oFla in order to supply "ustomers o$ .igar and .erFeas"alo"alities

V!r" Hi#$2&/43

TIMISOARA MV NET(OR)A20 GAR*IC-"OL#OVA*OUA RE

M: grid meshing bet-een the M: line and 520 R6(M5R6;M(/D(:5 &(5 R6 B3km o$underground "ableC

V!r" Hi#$2*/43

TIMISOARA MV NET(OR)A20 LOVRI*-LOVRI* T"Repla"ement o$ damaged insulators B$or 200 poles o$ the main $eederC and repla"ement o$ e>istingsurge arresters -ith metal;o>ide surge arresters B1 pie"esC

V!r" Hi#$2'/43

TIMISOARA MV NET(OR)A20 COR*EREVA-CRUSOVAT RE

Repla"ement o$ damaged insulators, "ondu"tors, seeral poles and bra"kets on 12 km o$ the M:line

Hi#$30/43

TIMISOARA MV NET(OR)A20 CERBU-O*OR RERepla"ement o$ damaged insulators, "ondu"tors, seeral poles and bra"kets on 10 km o$ the M:lineL substitution o$ 1, km o$ oerhead bare "ondu"tors -ith oerhead "able

Hi#$31/43

DEVA MV NET(OR)A20 TEBEA-BRA# #V

Repla"ement o$ damaged insulators, "ondu"tors, seeral poles and bra"kets on 22 km o$ the M:line B$inaliFing o$ the main $eeder B4HC and other se"ondary bran"hes J .irtin, (barsa, aFanestiC,repla"ement o$ e>isting surge arresters and e>isting grounding installation $or 20 se"ondarysubstations Bpole mounted trans$ormersC

Hi#$33/43

TIMISOARA MV NET(OR)A20 URSE*I-FRATELIAT"

Repla"ement o$ damaged insulators, "ondu"tors, seeral poles on km o$ the M: line,repla"ement o$ e>isting surge arresters

Hi#$34/43

DEVA MV NET(OR)A20 AVOI-I " ORASTIE#V

Repla"ement o$ damaged insulators, "ondu"tors, seeral poles and bra"kets on 1) km o$ the M:line, repla"ement o$ e>isting surge arresters and grounding installation o$ 12 pole mountedsubstationsL moderniFing o$ 3 pole mounted substations

Hi#$3/43

DEVA LV NET(OR) LUE*I/: distribution "abinets repla"ement, relo"ating the metering units outside "ustomers buildings B$oran easy a""essC and rene-al o$ 10 km oerhead net-ork

Hi#$3*/43

DEVA MV NET(OR)A20 BUCES-CRISCIOR#V

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DEVA MV NET(OR)A20 T 1-LUE*I #V Substitution o$ 1 km o$ underground "able

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TIMISOARA MV NET(OR)A20 BOOVICI-CRUSOVAT RE

Repla"ement o$ damaged insulators, bra"kets, "ondu"tors, seeral poles o$ the M: line


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