infrastructure for flood reduction - virginia deq...benefits of coral reefs for risk reduction...
TRANSCRIPT
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Economic Valuations of Natural Infrastructure for Flood Reduction
Michael W. Beck UCSC Research Professor
TNC Lead Marine Scientist
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Coastal Funding for Conservation & Infrastructure (10 Yrs)
McCreless & Beck. 2017. Rethinking our global coastal investment portfolio. Journal of Ocean & Coastal Economics
International
aidUS
Building
infrastructure
Relief &
reconstructionInsured Total
0
200
400
600
Fun
din
g a
mou
nt
(201
1 $
US
1 b
il.)
Ballot measures
NOAA
Conservation International
infrastructure aidStorm losses
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Recommended Approach: Expected Damage Function
10 yr with Habitat
10 yr w/out Habitat
Estimate Waves Offshore
Estimate Waves Nearshore
Estimate Effects of Habitats
Estimate Flooding
Storm Freq.
Assess Damages
Dam
ages
Guidelines for Valuing Coastal Protection Services from Mangroves and Reefs
M W. Beck & G-M Lange (eds)
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Waves (Wind, TC) Hindcast (1979-2016)
Astronomical Tide Hindcast (Harmonic)
Forecast (Harmonic)
Roughness
Wind Hindcast (1979-2016)
Tropical Cyclones Historical (1951-2014)-
IBTrACS Synthetic (5000
years)
Storm Surge (Wind, TC) Hindcast (vortex formulation 1992-2010)
Hindcast (statistical model 1971-1992)
Exposure
Waves
OFFSHORE
DYNAMICS
HABITAT NEARSHORE
DYNAMICS
IMPACTS CONSEQUENCES
Mean Water Level Observations (1950-2010)
TOTAL
WATER
LEVEL
TOTAL
WATER
LEVEL
Downscaling 1. Dynamic
2. Hybrid
Selection 1. Kmeans
2. SOM
3. MaxDiss
Propagation 1. SWAN
2. Snell
Set up
AT
MWL
Waves
Storm Surge
Storm Surge
Downscaling 1. Dynamic
Approach 1. Worst case
2. Historical
3. Probabilistic
Generation 1. DELFT 3D (2DH)
2. DELFT 3D (2DV)
3. 1D analytical
Wind
WAVES
STORM
SURGE
EROSION
FLOODING
RIVER
&
RAIN
Propagation 1. SWAN (2DH/2DV)
2. IH2VOF (2DV)
3. 1D analytical
Propagation 1. DELFT3D (2DH or 2DV)
2. 1D analytical
Modeling FLOODING 1. GIS
2. DELFT 3D
3. RFSM-EDA
Modeling EROSION 1. Analytical
2. X-Beach
3. Others
Probabilistic
Future scenarios
Historical
Future scenarios
Historical
Future scenarios
Damage and loss
Functions
Annual
Expected
Benefits
Poverty index
Population
Wealth
Land use
UNCERTAINTIES
Sea Level Rise Projections (2081-2100)
SLR
Orbital velocity
Vortex Model 1. SLP
2. WIND
WAVES
1. Coupled
2. Uncoupled
Vegetation model
Without vegetation
With vegetation
Built Capital
GDP
Flow Assets
CONSEQUENCES
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v
v
1 m
v
1 m
Valuing Coastal Processes & Reef Loss
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Playa del Carmen
Current Flooding
Flooding With 1m Reef Loss
Flooding (25 - Year Event)
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Global Flood Protection Savings from Coral Reefs
Storm Return Period (years)
Bu
ilt C
apit
al F
loo
ded
($B
)
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Annual Benefits of Reefs for Flood Reduction
Beck et al. 2018. Nature Communications.
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Annual Expected Benefits from Reefs: Avoided Flood Damage in $M/20 km coastline
Beck et al. 2018. Nature Communications.
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Annual Expected Benefits of Reefs for Flood Protection
($Millions)
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Estimating Flooding Benefits Globally With Mangrove Without Mangrove
50-year flood
Flood Height (m)
0
3
Mangrove
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Annual Flood Reduction Benefits from Mangroves
Losada, Beck etal. 2018. The global value of mangroves for risk reduction. TNC, Berlin.
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Countries Where Mangroves Provide Greatest Annual Flood Reduction Benefits
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Authors
Siddharth Narayan, UCSC
Michael Beck, TNC, UCSC
Paul Wilson, RMS
Christopher Thomas, RMS
Alexandra Guerrero, RMS
Christine Shepard, TNC
Borja G. Reguero, UCSC
Guillermo Franco, GC
Jane Carter Ingram, WCS
Dania Trespalacios, TNC
www.lloyds.com/coastalresilience
The Value of Coastal Wetlands for Flood Damage Reduction in the Northeastern USA
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Scenario I: Flood Damages with Present-day Wetlands
Wetland Effects on Property Damage Reduction during Hurricane Sandy
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Scenario II: Flood Damages with Wetland Loss
Wetland Effects on Property Damage Reduction during Hurricane Sandy
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625 Million US$ 15% avg reduction
Difference inLosses (%)
<-60
-60 to - 50
-50 to -25
-25 to -10
-10 to -5
-5 to -0.5
-0.5 to 0.5
0.5 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 25
25 to 50
50 to 100
>100
0
www.lloyds.com/coastalresilience
Narayan, Beck et al. 2017. Scientific Reports.
Effects of Marshes on Sandy Flood Damages
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State At Present
($)
With Wetland Loss
($) Absolute Difference
($)
% Difference
Connecticut 2,181,600,000 2,181,000,000 400,000 0.02
Delaware 228,100,000 251,900,000 23,800,000 10.44
Massachusetts 1,452, 300,000 1,458,600,000 6,300,000 0.43
Maryland 15,500,000 20,000,000 4,500,000 29.07
Maine 17,600,000 17,600,000 3,000* 0.02
North Carolina 9,500,000 8,800,000 -600,000 -6.47
New Hampshire 29,600,000 30,500,000 900,000 3.06
New Jersey 14,014,600,000 14,443,300,000 428,700,000 3.06
New York 32,314,600,000 32,452,800,000 138,200,000 0.43
Pennsylvania 174,400,000 188,000,000 13,700,000 7.85
Rhode Island 72,100,000 72,400,000 300,000 0.43
Virginia 195,400,000 205,300,000 9,900,000 5.06
Difference in Flood Between Wetland Scenarios
Wetland Effects on Property Damage Reduction during Hurricane Sandy
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Key Findings: Cumulative effects upstream Wetland Effects on Property Damage Reduction during Hurricane Sandy
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Middle Township, NJ Photo credit: Metthea Yepsen, TNC
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Property Damage Reduction By Mangroves During Hurricane Irma
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Financing Natural Infrastructure For Coastal Flood Damage Reduction
www.lloyds.com/coastalresilience
Catalyzing Public and Private Investment In Reef Restoration
• Significant Funding • Insurance
opportunities • Recovery Funding is
biggest source • Need critical data on
benefits & costs • All approaches for
funding gray infra open to Nat Infra
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23
Economics of Climate Adaptation
Katrina
Aims • Work with worlds 2nd largest re-insurer • Public cost effectiveness model that includes nature • Identify where nature-based defenses are cost effective
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Risk in 2030
High Economic Growth (3%)
2010 Growth Clim Change 2030
Da
ma
ge
s (
$ B
illio
ns)
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Economics of Coastal Adaptation
Reguero, Beck et al (2018). PLOS ONE
Benefit to Cost ratio
Averted Damages ($ Billions)
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REEF RESILIENCE & INSURANCE FUND IN QUINTANA ROO, MEXICO
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Combining Reef Restoration &
Insurance to Build Resilience
Insurance
Payout
Resilience
Investment Risk Premiums
Risk Reduction
Effects
Investment
Amortization
Reduction of
Contingent Liability A resilience insurance
solution overcomes trade-
off between risk reduction
& risk transfer:
• Up front reef restoration
investment reduces risk
• The risk mitigating impact
reduces premiums
• An incentive is created for
restoration & risk transfer
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1-in-100yr
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Benefits of Coral Reefs for Risk Reduction (1in100yr flood)
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Benefits of Coral Reefs for Risk Reduction Informing FEMA & Puerto Rico Recovery Efforts
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Implications and Opportunities
• Include Nature in Industry Risk Models
• Private incentives- Insurance, Resilience Bonds
• Public incentives- Pre- and Post- disaster spending (special purpose tax districts, FOPREDEN)
• Prioritizing Natural Infrastructure in Policy (Philippines Greening Program, US ACoE)
Photo credit: Jim Wright/LightHawk/TNC
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SUMMARY
• Wetlands and reefs reduce flood risks
• We can rigorously values these benefits
• Better values drive critical funding opportunities
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Thanks
RequestforWorkingGroupProposals
Page 1
Science for Nature and People Partnership
Request for Proposals Due Date: 25 April 2016, 9:00 am PDT
Website: www.snap.is For inquiries email [email protected]
The Science for People and Nature Partnership (SNAPP) was founded by The Nature
Conservancy, the Wildlife Conservation Society, and the National Center for Ecological
Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) at the University of California, Santa Barbara. The SNAP
Partnership delivers evidence-based, scalable solutions for problems at the collective interface of
economic development, nature conservation, and human well-being. SNAPP funds and convenes
multidisciplinary and cross-sector collaborations to catalyze innovative solutions with a clear
pathway to implementation. We are pleased to announce the fourth annual Request for Proposals
(RFP) for working groups to fill important knowledge gaps and advance solutions for people and
nature. In this RFP, we are especially interested in receiving proposals from the development and
humanitarian sectors as well as academia, governmental agencies, and conservation
organizations.
In September 2015, the United Nations adopted a new sustainable development agenda to end
poverty, protect the environment, and provide prosperity for all people. To advance the
sustainable development agenda, professionals from conservation and development fields must
collaborate in inclusive, flexible, and innovative ways. With 23 SNAPP working groups that
collectively include over 400 participants, representing 200 institutions from more than 30
countries, SNAPP is providing an opportunity for such engagements. SNAPP is rapidly
converting research into action by generating the type of applied science that today’s complex
problems demand. The SNAP Partnership is inviting applicants to submit working group
proposals to help realize the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.
Interested applicants should carefully review the information in this RFP including AppendixA:
Proposal Table. Proposals most likely to succeed are developed in collaboration with a member
of the SNAP Partnership (see page 5). To apply, proposals should be uploaded as a PDF at
http://www.nceas.ucsb.edu/snap/rfpform by 9:00 am PDT on Monday, 25 April 2016.
Late or incomplete submissions will be returned without review.
International Climate Initiative
[email protected] Contact after January 1 [email protected] UCSC Research Professor
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Extra Slides Follow
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1.Catastrophic Events:
• >625 Million US$ during Hurricane Sandy
• >11% on average where wetlands remain
2.Annual Flooding:
• Properties with marshes save >15% in average annual losses
Flood Reduction Benefits from Wetlands
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FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
Community Rating System Explorer
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Wave Height
Reguero, Beck, et al.. 2018. J. Env. Mgmt. 210:146-161.
Pilot Project - Reef Restoration for Risk Reduction Grenville, Grenada
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The reef at low tide
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1. Storm parameters: ~2000 events
2. Annual flood losses for grid of properties
3. Marsh presence: Marshes and watersheds by Shepard et al. using GIS
4. Control for various factors
Effect of Salt Marshes on Annual Flood Damages to Properties
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Key Findings: Properties With Marsh see lower losses across most elevations
Effect of Salt Marshes on Annual Flood Damages to Properties
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Flood Model Example for Delaware Bay Wetland Effects on Property Damage Reduction during Hurricane Sandy
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StationObservations
<1.5
1.5 to1.75
1.75 to 2
2 to 2.25
2.25 to2.5
2.5 to 3
3 to 3.5
>3.5
RMS FloodModelFootprint
<1.5
1.5 to1.75
1.75 to 2
2 to 2.25
2.25 to2.5
2.5 to 3
3 to 3.5
>3.5
StationObservations
<1.5
1.5 to1.75
1.75 to 2
2 to 2.25
2.25 to2.5
2.5 to 3
3 to 3.5
>3.5
RMS FloodModelFootprint
<1.5
1.5 to1.75
1.75 to 2
2 to 2.25
2.25 to2.5
2.5 to 3
3 to 3.5
>3.5
Wetland Effects on Property Damage Reduction during Hurricane Sandy
Model Validation: Observed versus Predicted Surge Heights for Sandy (m)
RMS Model Surge Height (m)
Observed Surge Height (m)
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Study: Wetlands as Natural Defenses During Hurricane Sandy
Narayan et al., 2016. Scientific Reports 7, 9463
Hurricane Sandy: • Made US landfall in New
Jersey on October 29th 2012
• Widespread losses in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico
• In US, storm surge affected 12 coastal states, caused $50 B in damages
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The Difference in Risk Assessed Socially vs Economically Would Our Priority Areas Change?
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Meet Multiple Management Objectives
Adaptation & Risk Reduction
Objectives
Conservation
Objectives
New Priorities & Actions
Risk = Exposure * Social Vulnerability Vulnerability = Susceptibility, Coping Capacity Adaptive Capacity
Representation Redundancy Resilience
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Global Annual Expected Benefits from Mangroves
People Flooded (Millions)
Property Damaged ($ Billions)
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Study: Effect of Salt Marsh Presence on Annual Flood Losses in Ocean County
Behind Marsh No Marsh
Annual flood losses in Barnegat Bay, NJ Locations behind marsh versus locations with no marsh ~2000 storm events