http://www.SmartDrivingCar.com Monday, July 22, 2013

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Summary of:

July 16-19, ’13 Stanford University, Palo Alto| Agenda | Breakout Sessions | Demonstrations As anticipated, the workshop was excellent. It attracted over 300 attendees most of whom not only stayed engaged for the whole 3 days but participated in both pre-and post-workshop activities. While organized by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) this workshop received no government funding and was supported entirely by the participants. All organizers, speakers and attendees paid the registration fee which was lowered substantially by support from the following Benefactors:

Among the benefactors were small research-oriented entities as well as one major insurance company and one well-known communications company. Unfortunately, the major players did not underwrite this workshop, even though they benefitted mightily from the attendance and themselves attended at the subsidized rate. So it goes in the zig zag world of transportation policy where bean counters vie with creators for control over the future that can be imagined.

AutonomousStuff gave one of the more compelling demonstrations of several different sensor technologies that form the “eyes” of automated vehicles. Each of these sensor technologies had been easily installed their rental car which confirmed the after-market viability of these technologies and demonstrated among many other capabilities the ability to readily identified Bobby and me.

Of the plenary presentations, the most compelling was the “off-the-record” presentation made by R.David Edelman, Senior Advisor for Internet, Innovation & Privacy, The white House. David laid out the opportunities and challenges of this emerging disruptive technology in a way that is essentially in complete agreement with the perspectives that I have presented SmartDrivingCars. Should we be so lucky as to have the White House’s various executive departments align with his view will certainly accelerate innovation and market adoption that captures the enormous safety, mobility, energy, environmental, decongestion, employment and quality-of-life enhancements of this transformative technology.

The second most compelling entity was Google’s Anthony Levandowski’s reiteration of Sergey Brin’s intention to avail the public to “Level 4” mobility within 5 years. This is compelling because of the time frame. Given that Segey made the claim last year, this could be as soon as 2017 that the “public” (not “research” or “demonstration”) would begin to capture not only the safety benefits of Levels 1, 2 and 3 but the mobility, energy, environmental, decongestion, employment and quality-of-life enhancements that become available when vehicles no longer need drivers to share in the use of the existing roadway infrastructure. The reality that this transformative opportunity which, to date, has been confined to science fiction may be as near as 4 years away is oblivious to most of the policy and planning community as well as the general public. Anthony made NO statement as to how Google intends to bring “Level 4” technology to market which led several of us to speculate and debate: will they buy a car company?, will they buy Tesla?, will they partner with Lexus or some other car company?, will they test market these as they’ve done with Google_Glass?, will they create a “PRT-like” autonomusTaxi (aTaxi) service on the Google campus?, or ??? We had a lot of fun speculating; however, one thing is clear: irrespective of how Google brings “level 4” to market, it is imperative that the planning community immediately begin to take serious “Level 4” technology. Long range planning was mandated and implemented many years ago and is the foundation of all public sector expenditures in surface transportation. Essentially none of those surface transportation plans consider the existence of “Level 4” entities on public roads at any time in the future, let alone as early as 2017 (which next year makes them eligible for inclusion in short-range plans). There needs to be a wake-up call to the planning community. I participated in the Transit & Shared Mobility breakout group and this clarion call opportunity was central to our deliberation as summarized below.

The third most rewarding takeaway from the plenary sessions was the openness and genuine collegiality of the Federal DoT participation. I’ve attended many conferences and workshops, every TRB annual meeting since 1971, and found this workshop to be without question the most open and collaborative. Credit must be given to Mike Schagrin of the DoT ITS Joint Program Office for setting the tone and creating an environment where there was true engagement by all participants with DoT intensively listening and engaging as opposed to pontificating the prevailing legislative initiatives.

As mentioned above I participated in the Transit & Shared Mobility breakout sessions, a synopsis of which will appear in a paper to be presented at the TRB annual conference next January. Presentations and draft research statements can be found at the workshop website: http://www.vehicleautomation.org/program/agenda

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Opinion: The era of the driverless auto is coming “…But the increasing pace of technological breakthroughs in the field of transportation, coupled with initiatives on the political front, may lead to a day in the not-too-distant future when the idea of hopping into our car to brave a highway trip may actually bring a smile to our face….” Read more Regular readers of SmartDrivingCars will find this to be very familiar. Alain

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Injuries to 'distracted pedestrians' on the rise with smartphone “…More than 1,500 pedestrians were estimated to be treated in U.S. emergency rooms in 2010 for injuries related to using a cellphone while walking, says Nasar…” Read more; Original paper The problems with inattentiveness associated with our insatiable needs to talk & text is not just limited to when we are driving cars but must be associated with us whenever we are on the go. At least in cars, SmartDrivingCar technology can keep us safe while we text and talk. I guess that someone needs to develop a phone-based short-range collision avoidance and “side-walk keeping” app to keep us safe while we Walk&Text; else, we’ll need to outlaw it.. ;-) Alain*****************************************************************************

Will BMW Dominate Ownerless, Driverless Car Branding? “Recall some of the memorable car advertising slogans of old?

“See the USA in your Chevrolet” Ford’s “Better ideas driven by you” Pontiac’s “We build excitement” Chrysler’s “Your next car”

They stem from a world when you owned the car and drove it, too. Both assumptions seem enduring, if not unchallengeable. The fact is: These near certainties are by no means givens anymore….” Read more The rest of the article is old news and refers to the NYT article that follows which better describes the expansion of the car rental business to car sharing. In my mind, there are two fundamental challenges in car sharing: 1. The front-end transaction cost/hassle associated with initiating the transaction (validation/authentication of the user) and 2. “empty-vehicle repositioning”. The first can be addressed in many ways; however, the 2nd is either enormously labor intensive or reverts back to the traditional car-rental business model which requires the user to return the vehicle to its original location; else, incur an expensive empty-vehicle repositioning cost, aka “one-way charge”. To avoid the “one-way charge” the typical car rental “sits around in parking lots waiting for the customer to return to the airport”. This is where “driverless” becomes really valuable. It allows for empty vehicle repositioning without the labor cost. Now instead of that car sitting around in a parking lot, it can be moved to another customer who can use it instead of waiting for me to return to the airport. When it comes time for me to return to the airport, that or another car can be driverlessly dispatched for me to use to return to the airport or where ever I now wish to go. This demand responsive taxi-like service model becomes enormously interesting once the labor charge is extracted. The rental company can now charge me a higher rate per unit time because I will rent it only for travel and not for the time that it sits around waiting for me. Since rental (and all other) cars sit around more than 90% of the time waiting for our next trip, there are bound to be opportunities by which managed sharing could substantially increase the travel utilization of individual cars. Alain*****************************************************************************

NYT Car Sharing Grows With Fewer Strings Attached “…Two of Germany’s biggest automakers are squarely behind the idea. DriveNow is a joint venture of BMW and the car rental company Sixt, and Car2Go is a subsidiary of Daimler. (In the United States, DriveNow is solely BMW’s venture.)…” Read more *****************************************************************************

1.5 Million smart fortwo Produced “…“1.5 million smart fortwo vehicles underline the uniquely compact smart’s success as city car. It inspires drivers in more and more metropolitan areas around the world, because no other car is so perfectly adapted to urban driving; and with traffic and parking becoming increasingly challenging in these areas, many more smart will follow, “ said Dr. Annette Winkler, head of smart. “Powered by combustion engine or increasingly with fully-electric drive train, as private and fleet vehicle and also as tailored car for mobility concepts like car2go, the smart meets a worldwide demand. As of 2014, we will additionally offer our customers an entirely newly developed four-seated urban mobility car again.”…” Read more. Original Daimler Press Release: smart Hambach plant celebrates production milestone

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Saturday, July 13, 2013

Mobileye, a Maker of Automated Driving Systems, Raises $400 Million*****************************************************************************

Smart Driving CarsThursday, June 30, 2013

State Senator Thomas H. Kean, Jr. : autonomous vehicle legislation. *****************************************************************************

Smart Driving CarsWednesday, June 16, 2013

Sneak peek at what Dr. Jerome Lutin, former Senior Director at NJ Transit will say at the symposium entitled:

Application of Autonomous Driving Technology to Transit - Functional capabilities for Safety and CapacityUSA Industry-wide average of 63,000 bus crashes per year, resulting in 14,000 injuries and 351 fatalities.

NJ TRANSIT had four pedestrian fatalities in 2012 and 217 injured in 34 bus collisions and 163 incidents. NJ TRANSIT reported paying out $43.2 million in injury and damage claims in FY 2012. Assuming 33% of claims

are allocated to Bus Operations on the basis of passenger miles suggests $14.0 million in bus claims. With an owned and contracted fleet totaling 2,403 buses (excluding 624 buses leased to private carriers), the average claims cost is estimated $6,404. per vehicle for the year 2012.

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Thursday, June 6, 2013

NHTSA Preliminary Statement of Policy Re: Automated Vehicles http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Automated_Vehicles_Policy.pdf contains the details of this preliminary policy. I highly recommend that you read it. My interpretation: http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/CommentOnNHTSA_PrelimStatement.pdf

Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fa talities in 2012 Not a pretty picture. Early estimates show a 5.3% increase in fatalities over ’11 to 34,080 due to a very large YoY increase in Q1 (12.6%) and a an extremely large increase of greater than 15% in the Northeast region. While some of this may be attributable to increased VMT, Fatalities per VMT also increased. http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/EarlySafetyFacts2012NHTSA.pdf

Smart Driving CarsWednesday, May 29, 2013

“ Intelligent Drive: networked with all senses

The Road Ahead: Advanced Vehicle Technology and its ImplicationsMay 15 2013 2:30 PM Russell Senate Office Building - 253 Archived webcast Starts @ 26:20 AlainK Analysis *****************************************************************************

Smart Driving CarsThursday, May 14, 2013

Mercedes “Hard to Imagine” Commercial. I watch little TV, but I am pleased that Mercedes continues to hit prime spots with this ground-breaking commercial. NBC had it right after the running of the Kentucky Derby and it aired several times in the New York market during the Rangers Playoff games. They are even playing this spot on during the Daily Show. They must be seeing traction. *****************************************************************************

Uncongested Mobility for All: NJ’s Area-wide aTaxi System Part 1, The Demand for Mobility This year my students and I have been conducting a quantitative assessment of the mobility implications of the ultimate in Smart Driving Cars. The task was simple: How well could a truly safe fleet of self-driving cars serve the full spectrum of personal mobility needs…

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Thursday, May 2, 2013 *****************************************************************************

Smart Driving CarsFriday, April 25, 2013

Mercedes is 1st Mover and Lifts Bar with ‘14 Mercedes E-Class Safety Features Supported by the following TV Commercials (If you haven’t seen them on TV they are worth watching “

“Hard to Imagine” Commercial “Clown” Commercial

From the Public Sector: My response to the US DoT on Surface Transportation System Automation (http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Kornhauser_%20Response2AutomationRfI.pdf*****************************************************************************

Smart Driving CarsFriday, April 19, 2013

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Monday, April14, 2013

The Business Case for SmartDrivingCars: For the consumer, SmartDrivingCars have three main values: increased safety, comfort and convenience. Of these safety is most easily quantified because damages are largely adjudicated in monetary terms. AAA estimates that traffic fatalities and injuries amounted to $256B in 2011, or a cost of about $1,328 in ‘05 dollars for each licensed driver. Of this amount approximately 50% ($664) is paid by private insurance, the pass-through portion of insurance premiums. Individual crash victims absorb 26% ($340) of the cost (basically the deductible of what the insured has to absorb if involved in an accident), other 3 rd parties absorb 14% ($185), the Federal treasury absorbs 6% ($80) and local municipalities 4% ($50). Google’s simulation of the operation of its self-driving car on the range of real crash scenarios resulted in a forecast of 81% fewer fatalities and 65% fewer injuries. This substantial reduction in car crashes would save in the US $183 billion annually. Moreover, these safety improvements would be enjoyed proportionally by each owner/user of a Google car. Thus, the insurer of the average licensed driver switching to a “Google car” could expect to reduce its pass-through liabilities by an average of $475 per year. Since these are simply pass-though dollars, one could expect that an insurance price-leader might readily offer discounts of up to, say, $450, keeping the expected remaining $25 for its “generosity”. The Google car user would also forgo $247 in expected “deductible self-insured” obligations.

The $450 insurance discount could readily finance, if not the expensive Google “lidars”, the lower cost radars and cameras contemplated by the auto industry for its initial wave of automated lane keeping and “always-on” collision monitoring and avoidance systems. For example, the Mercedes “jam-assist” system is expected to be available on 2014 models as a $3,000 “driver assistance safety option”. While jam-assist doesn’t have all of the features of a Google car, it may be able to capture as much as two-thirds of the safety benefits through the collisions that jam-assist can be expected to avoid during the car’s lifetime. If so proven, then the $300 discount that Flo, or the Gecko, or Good Hands or the General or some other insuer can readily offer would essentially finance this $3,000 safety feature. In fact Flo should escort you to the Mercedes dealer and pay for the option if you agree to buy a Mercedes and continue your current policy payments. (Remember, in giving Mercedes $300 per year over say 12 years, she is also keeping that $25 “generosity” for her effort, so she is happy.) In addition to substantially reducing the probability that this car is going to kill you, what’s in it for you? Well, how about the two-thirds of the $247 self-insurance expected obligation that you would avoid each year. More importantly you get the anxiety-relief that flows from having driving assistance while traveling in some of the most tedious, boring and unpleasant roadway conditions. Finally, society wins because we can’t really place a value on the injuries and fatalities that will be prevented. They are priceless!

Going all the way with Google Cars (or even just two thirds of the way with “jam-assist”) would mean for New Jersey an annual avoidance of 500 (340) fatalities and 28,000 (19,000) injuries “valued” at $3.55 ($2.38) Billion per year.

We MUST make this happen. Everybody wins. *****************************************************************************

Smart Driving CarsMonday, March 31, 2013

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Smart Driving CarsMonday, March 25, 2013

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Monday, March 18, 2013 European Update: Workshop: Automation in Road Transport (contains links to participants & presentations)

….As background if you haven’t read it: from June 29,2011: Definition of necessary vehicle and infrastructure systems for Automated Driving Final report SMART 2010/0064

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Monday, March 11, 2013Best videos from Workshop: Automation in Road Transport (contains links to participants & presentations)

Automated Steering Avoidance of imminent collision on Frozen Lake done Feb 23, 2013. Videos of automated collision avoidance maneuvers involving only steering followed by Volvo Platooning video

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Smart Driving CarsThursday, February 28, 2013

This is BIG!!!

Continental and BMW Group Working Together to Develop Freeway-Grade Highly Automated Driving BMW Press Release                                                                                                                 Continental Press ReleaseThis is BIG, not only because they have “an agreement to jointly develop an electronic co-pilot for this purpose”, but because…

It aligns a component supplier with a manufacturer. Where does this leave Daimler and VW/Audi? To join up with Bosch?? What about Delphi? Join back with GM on this one?? Where does this leave the other manufacturers; will they align? The competitive race to attract consumers to the showroom has really heated up.

They’ve realized that safety is now clothed in comfort & convenience. Together, they make a powerful message to the car buying public. This technology will draw people into the showrooms. The wake-up call was delivered by the emergent competitor, , rather than government edicts or rule-makings. “… [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…- competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph A Shumpeter (1883-1950)

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Smart Driving CarsThursday, February 21, 2013

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Smart Driving CarsThursday, February 14, 2013

Smart Driving CarsFriday, February 8, 2013

Smart Driving CarsThursday, February 7, 2013

Smart Driving CarsThursday, January 31, 2013

mailto:alaink@princeton.edu