innovation trends serie robots: friends or nightmare? robots in the spotlight of the big technology...
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INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE
Robots: friends or nightmare?
Robots in the spotlight of the big technology companies
ROBOTSHOW ROBOTICS WILL CHANGE OUR LIVES
02
01
04
03 INFOGRAPHICThe evolution of Robots
Robot fever
05 INTERVIEW
“Robots aren't a threat and they're not going to replace people”
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
Robots: friends or nightmare?
01China is set to lead the global production of robots, followed by Europe and USA. But the debate over the potential benefits and risks of humanoids is already raging ( ).
The robotics revolution is supposed to come in 2030, but you won't need to wait that long to see signs of coexistence between humans and robots. In two years China will lead global robot production, churning out close to 400,000 units, well ahead of the 340,000 that Europe is expected to produce and the 300,000 set to be built in the United States, according to figures from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR).
Will robots become man's best friend, or his nightmare? This is the question that is always raised whenever we see a boom in robotics, and all sorts of answers are always proffered. According to the scientist Stephen Hawking… he cautioned in this interview for the BBC.
The physicist has been warning of the risks inherent in artificial intelligence for years, and this June he presented a letter in Buenos Aires that rallied against the development of so called "killer robots". The open letter, signed also by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, founder of Tesla and co-creator of PayPal Elon Musk, the linguist Noam Chomsky and Demis Hassabis, Chief Executive of the Google artificial intelligence firm, stated the concerns harbored by thousands of scientists due to the development of autonomous military robots, capable of operating without human intervention.
Stephen Hawking
“ Robots represent a threat to humanity. Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete, and would be superseded
“
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
“It is only a matter of time before the weapons end up in the hands of terrorists and warlords (...), autonomous weapons have been described as the third revolution in warfare, after gunpowder and nuclear arms (...), autonomous weapons are ideal for tasks such as assassinations, destabilizing nations, subduing populations and selectively killing a particular ethnic group (...). Starting a military AI arms race is a bad idea," warns the letter.
Although Hawking is not entirely against humanoids and admits that the potential benefits
could be "enormous", he cautions that current robot development is channeled more toward the destruction of people. “Artificial intelligence could serve to eradicate war, disease and poverty from the world. However, we are seeing priority given to investments that will usher in an arms race,” he said.
Leaving aside military purposes and concentrating instead on industrial uses, this report from the Pew Research Center, based on interviews with around 2,000 tech experts, scientists and academics, found that half of those
surveyed believe that machines will perform much of the tasks now done by humans, while the other half expect robots to create more jobs. The report concluded that 2025 will be the year in which robots play a very significant role in people's lives. A more recent study found that humanoids would take away 18 million jobs in Germany within 20 years.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
Rodolphe Gelin, Director of Aldebaran Robots, is more optimistic. He points out that humanoids have "a heart" and will represent the backbone of smart homes, controlling lighting, temperature, cleaning and food, providing the chief interface for operating electronic appliances.
Aldebaran's robots are social and programmed to learn humans' habits and intervene when necessary. Their artificial intelligence allows them to interact with people via voice and even recognize emotions. According to Gelin, the fears that robots arouse are unjustified: "Like any object or technology developed by man, robots could pose a threat to humanity. Fire, cars, electricity, nuclear energy and even writing can do both good and bad for humanity. It all depends on what you do with it. Robots intrinsically do not pose a danger to humanity."
The human robot ( ).
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
Instead, he believes “robots will build a better future. They will bring out the best in people. There are fears, such as of a spontaneous robot rebellion, or robots being put to bad use as a result of piracy. But such problems are not specific to robots; they apply to all
smart objects with which we interact ( ). Computer researchers, specialists in IT security and even attorneys are working to resolve such problems even before we begin living with robots. It is very important that everyone understand the foundations of robots. Fear
is often born of ignorance. If every child is made familiar with robots, just as they are taught to use the Internet properly, they will dominate robotics. And the future of robotics will be in good hands: those of the people," he concludes.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
In 1942, science-fiction acclaimed writer and scientific dissemination essayist Isaac Asimov established in his short story Runaround the Three Laws of Robotics that every robot should be programmed to respect.
The Three Laws of Robotics
A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.
A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
These laws were complemented with the addition of the Zeroth Law, that appeared on Asimov's work, The Bicentennial Man, stating: A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
In 2011 the most prominent engineering organizations in the United Kingdom published five ethical principles of robotics, for robot designers and engineers to comply with.
Robots should not be designed solely or primarily to kill or harm humans.
Robots are manufactured artefacts. They should not be designed in a deceptive way to exploit vulnerable users; instead their machine nature should be transparent.
Humans, not robots, are responsible agents. Robots are tools designed to achieve human goals.
Robots are products. They should be designed using processes which assure their safety and security.
The person with legal responsibility for a robot should be attributed.
Robots in the spotlight of the big technology companies
02
Artificial intelligence projects have moved $20 billion in the last five years. An example of this trend is Google, which has bought a dozen robotics companies in just three years ( ).Fad or serious commitment? Robotics is attractive to large companies and what
appeared to be a whim of their CEOs is emerging as one of the sectors to track in the coming years.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
2013 was the year that Google placed its focus - and money - on robotics with the acquisition of numerous companies. It finished the year by purchasing Boston Dynamics, one of the market leaders, which provides services to the Pentagon and has a star among its ranks: Cheetah robot, which is faster than Usain Bolt.
Google's obsession with robots has not diminished in recent years. In 2014 it bought the British company specializing in artificial intelligence DeepMind Technologies for $400 million. In 2015 one of the latest operations of
the Mountain View company in the field of industrial robotics was the agreement with the American pharmaceutical group Johnson & Johnson to manufacture surgical robots.
The advantages for patients of surgeries performed by robots controlled by doctors are high-precision and less-invasive operations.
Human errors cause between 44,000 and 98,000 patient
deaths annually in the United States, according to the MRI Technology School.
Although Google seems to be more directed toward industrial robotics, it doesn't want to leave out the social aspect.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
At mid-year, it registered the Methods and systems for robot personality development patent to customize the robots that may "be programmed to take on the personality of a person from the real world (such as user behavior, a deceased loved one or a celebrity) and take on the character traits of people emulated by a robot".
That personality could be transferred from one robot to another, or shared among several through cloud-based computing: "This way, a user could travel to another city and download the personality of his or her own home robot into a robot based in
the other location. Robotic personality would thus become
something transportable and transferable” ( ).
Projects related to artificial intelligence have accounted for almost $20 billion dollars (around 18 billion euros) since 2009 but some have come with much controversy. Several intellectuals and scientists warned against so-called "killer robots”, Stephen Hawking at the head, Bill Gates was very concerned about the "threat" of artificial intelligence.
Although some people are not as critical as informed in this article published
in El País that includes the reflections of the researcher at the University of Toronto, Hector Levesque: “Today's computers are downright stupid.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
For example if you ask, "Joan thanked Susan for all the help she had given. Who gave the help, Joan or Susan?" Google can't answer that question. That's the ghost missing from the machine: common sense. Sadly, much of the research on
artificial intelligence conducted these days is content with systems that only read massive amounts of data, without any sense. These are the systems that should scare us. Those that are autonomous but have no common sense."
Facebook is confident ( ) in the common sense of robots and tests conducted by the laboratory developing new intelligence led by the French researcher LeCun. The US company hired the renowned scientist whose mission is "to produce software with the language skills and common sense necessary to maintain a basic conversation."
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
"Instead of having to communicate with machines by pressing buttons or entering carefully-selected search terms, we could say what we want as if we were talking to another person. Our relationship with the digital world will completely change through intelligent agents with which you can interact ", he predicts. He believes that deep learning can "produce software that understands our sentences and is able to
respond with appropriate answers, clarifying questions, or making their own suggestions," as noted in this report in Technology Review.
Both Facebook and Google seem to be clear that the future is in the hands of robots, provided they are always controlled by humans.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
The evolution of robots
03/INFOGRAPHIC
The enormous progress being made in robotics has seen jobs in some industries being automated, which has sparked a debate on whether robots might eventually replace humans.
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INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
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The new Robots
COMPANY:Rethink Robotics
HEIGHT: 190 cm
Designed to support programming and provide flexibility to small manufacturers.
COMPANY: Boston Dinamics /Google
HEIGHT: 188 cm
The DRC workhorse, used by U.S. teams with a range of software.
COMPANY: Willow Garage
HEIGHT: 165 cm
An advanced personal service robot, used chiefly in laboratories.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
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COMPANY: Google
HEIGHT: 146 cm
Designed to complete tasks with its hands, supported by extensive Japanese expertise in humanoid robots.
COMPANY: KUKA
HEIGHT: 203 cm
Industrial robots used in the world's most advanced factories.
COMPANY: Kaist
HEIGHT: 130 cm
Developed as a platform for a range of research projects.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
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COMPANY: NASA - JPL
HEIGHT: 120 - 170 cm
An experimental robot with multiple use limbs built based on identical tracking.
COMPANY: Honda
HEIGHT: 120 cm
The most recent Honda creation is used for practical applications.
COMPANY: Aethon
HEIGHT: 120 cm
Automated hauler and transport robot, without charisma, used in hospitals.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
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COMPANY: Unbounded Robotics
HEIGHT: 97 cm
A one-armed robot capable of performing a series of tasks.
COMPANY: iRobot
HEIGHT: 200 cm
A robot that demonstrated its value helping to defuse improvised explosive devices in Iraq and Afghanistan.
COMPANY: AIST
HEIGHT: 57 cm
Provides company to senior citizens, with therapeutic and social benefits.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
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COMPANY: iRobot
HEIGHT: 35 cm
The world's most popular cleaning robot since 2002.
COMPANY: DJI
HEIGHT: 35 cm
Able to fly to any location using a system of cameras, opening new markets and attracting new fans.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
1,200,000
1,000,000
932,000
750,000
605,000
454,000
2014
2010
2005
2002
1995
1990
The global robotics industryIn 2013 there was one robot for every 5,000 workers
Robots in numbers
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
454.000
Robot densityThe number of robotic workers is growing. For example, in Japan for every 1,000 workers there are 34 industrial robots performing similar tasks.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
Other9.7%
Optics9%
Food1.5%
Communication2.5%
Metal3.7%
Non-specific
25%
Automotive33.1%
Electricity9.9%
Chemistry9.4%
Machinery4.3%
July 2015. The Henn Na hotel, or “Weird Hotel”, has opened. The news is in all of around the world. It is the first establishment where robots attend to guests. It costs 66 euros to stay the night surrounded by androids who, although cannot make the bed, do not ask for a wage and can work without a break seven days a week, 24 hours a day.Henn Na is a good
example of robot fever in Japan. The country, one of the leading countries in terms of robots, continues to focus on this technology. A month ahead of the opening of the “Weird Hotel”, the robot called Pepper had sold out just one minute after it went up for sale. Its price, 1,500 euros, did not stop the madness over this
Robot fever04Around 320 million workers could be replaced by robots everywhere in the world. There is a proliferation of studies that analyze the economic impact of robots, which could surpass 1.7 trillion dollars by 2025 in the health, manufacturing and services sectors, among others ( ).
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
small android --120 centimeters tall, weighing 28 kilos and a 14-hour battery-- which can interpret emotions and interact with people.
"Depending on the emotion at the time, Pepper talks more loudly or sighs, relaxes around people it knows, is pleased when it receives a compliment, or is frightened when the lights go out", explain its
creators. On top of the initial price, it costs 177 euros a month for three years to connect to the cloud, which allows Pepper to keep up its learning with the rest of the Peppers on the market. This pushes its price up to a grand total of 8,000 euros.
Although it was initially designed with families in mind, Pepper can also attend to clients at Japanese establishments.
The country, which has an unemployment rate of 3.3%, is struggling to alleviate the aging of its population. Japan has around 127 million people. Out of them, only 12.8% are less than 14 years old. The Japanese government estimates that by 2060 the population will total 86 million people, 40% over 65 years old. That is why it is looking to robots to make up for the lack of workforce ( ).
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
The economic impact of robots
The robot industry and production automation technology rose by 14.4% compared to 2014, although not only Japan is experiencing a robot revolution. A study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) reveals that robots will replace factory workers at a faster rate than expected over the next decade, bringing labor costs down by 16%. Investment in robots will rise by 10% a year in the 25 main exporting countries by 2025 ( ).
“Connected and capable of resolving complex problems, the new generation of robots will be able to take on 25% of
automated tasks versus the10% that traditional robotscurrently perform”, according to the study, which goes on to say that over the next 10 years investment in robots will total 60,000 million euros, compared to 25,000 million this year.
Using robots will bring
down labor costs by 33% in South Korea, 25% in Japan, 24% in Canadaand 22% in the United States and Taiwan. Just 10% of jobs that can be automated are currently performed by robots. In 2025, machines will account for more than 23% of these job posts, according to forecasts by Boston Consulting.INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
Regarding their efficiency, another study, “The robots are coming”, by Deloitte, highlights that robots have an error margin of 0.02% and adds that they can perform any rule-based, repetitive process subject to human error, with peak workloads that require night shifts or overtime and are not essential for the company.
According to Deloitte, “the reality is that automation and robots lower costs and are quick to implement because it only takes two to four weeks to automate any process”. Deloitte explains that in the UK a robot costs a ninth of the
total cost of an employee.McKinsey estimates that the invasion of robots will have an economic impact of 1.7-4.5 trillion dollars by 2025 in sectors such as health, manufacturing and services, and that in the medium-term some 320 million workers could be replaced by robots everywhere in the world. The robot revolution seems to be a serious thing this time.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
"Robots aren't a threat and they're not going to replace people"
05/INTERVIEW
Luis Moreno, professor at the Carlos III University in Madrid, emphasizes that although countries are going to demand more robots, it won't result in a process for replacing people ( ).
Luis Moreno, robotics expert and professor at the Carlos III University in Madrid, works on developing exoskeletons for restoration, manipulating artificial hands to give them a human sensitivity, and on differentautonomous systems so as robots can calculate routes, avoid walls and obstacles and even find paths on Mars.
What's the challenge of robotics? ( )There are quite a few challenges. The old mobile robotics, vehicles with sensors that move with a certain understanding of the environment and avoid obstacles, is going to be applied in two fields: the vehicles field (Google) and space exploration, which is a less visible field.
Another field is the service robot, or the so-called social robots. They don't have a great ability to handle things, but they have many qualities for social relationships. They're able to synthesize speech and understand part of what is being said, with obvious limitations. This is reaching hospitals for Alzheimer patients and hotels, and a lot of work is being put into the exoskeleton, or humanoid, part.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015
What do you think about Google purchasing dozens of robotics companies over the last few years?Google's purchase sounds amazing because it's Google, but all the technology that's currently on the market, such as the automatic parking of cars, is what robotics laboratories were doing in the '80s.Google's case is highly publicized, but to give you an example, years ago we had a car in Madrid that came down from the mountain to the city on its own. The technology was already mature and Google hasn't done any marvelous research, although what's being done isn't at all bad as it's not easy to put this technology on the market.
What problems is robotics facing?Robotics is a bank of integration for any technology. It's facing energy problems and actuator problems.We can't develop robots that are more sophisticated or that have more human skills because the actuators we have are still engines, mainly electric.
Another challenge is understanding situations. Making a robot understand. Another huge problem we are facing is how to teach them. Programming a robot's activity is very complicated, and nowadays you pretty much need an engineer to be
with it continuously, and every laboratory around the world is
trying to teach robots. Learning things is a challenge, although we mustn't forget about the sensory part.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
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At present, we aren't able to develop anything equivalent to a human hand in terms of ability, sensitivity and strength. Sensors have their limitations, for example, robots can only see between 7 and 8 meters of volumetric image.
Are robots going to replace people in day-to-day jobs? ( )No. The most robotic countries are the richest countries and those that have the highest levels of employment. Japan, Korea and the United States, for example, don't use robots to replace people and they aren't interested in doing so. Robots are expensive, very expensive, and they are used to improve product quality. The car industry didn't introduce
robots to
replace people, possibly because robots are much more expensive. However, robots can weld with a very high precision. They're not going to replace people. The most automated countries tend to produce products with a higher quality, they sell more products around the world, and therefore have more wealth and employment. That's the reality.
So robots aren't a threat?I don’t think so. Countries are going to demand more robots. This is the case, for example, of Japan with social robots. They don't replace anyone, they accompany patients, they check their health, they remind them to take their medication, they chat to each other. They don't replace anyone because no one else is doing that. Exoskeletons aren't going to fire anyone. The person who gives them the job will be in charge.The feeling of threat isn't real right now.
China
What country will lead robotization over the next few years?China will become robotic but not to fire people. It will do so because many of its products aren't of a very high quality. China will become more clearly robotic over the next twenty years. It has an industry that needs to produce higher quality. It can't continue to just sell cheap products. It will have to become robotic,since human hands can't assemble products with a high quality.
And how do you see Europe?Germany is very robotic, and France, Italy and Spain have good levels, especially in certain industries such as cars and electronics. They're not doing badly at all.
Latin America?Latin America still doesn't have a huge manufacturing industry, which is where robotics come in. The level is lower due to the type of industry and they don't have a high need.
What do you think about the controversy of the so-called "killer robots"?Every technology that's developed around the world has a double use. Drones don't shoot by themselves.Behind each robot is a person that's programming its movements and actions. Vaccinations can be used to kill or cure. Everything, not just robots, can be used in one way or another, for good or for bad.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
BBVA Innovation Center creates the Innovation Trends Series to keep you updated with cutting edge innovation trends and their appliance to your everyday life. In this papers you will find all key facts, analysis, case studies, interviews with experts and infographics to visualize the data that each and every trend describes.
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