innovative approaches used in the 2016 canadian census · the canadian census a five years cycle:...
TRANSCRIPT
Session d: Innovations in census
methodology and technology, and
results of testing
Prepared by Marc Hamel (Statistics Canada)
Presentation to the Expert Group Meeting on Population and Housing Census
Geneva, 2016
Innovative approaches
used in the 2016 Canadian
Census
26/10/2016Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada2
Outline
The Canadian Census
The census collection methodologies
Results from 2016
Response management
Adopting corporate systems for the Census
Tailored communication strategy
Lessons Learned
26/10/2016Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada3
The Canadian Census
A five years cycle : Canada conducts a census of population and dwellings every 5 years. The most
recent one took place in May 2016 and expanded on methodological changes
introduced for the 2011 Census.
Overview: The wave collection methodology encourages response via internet while
ensuring a high level of self-response. The basic approach was extended to a
larger portion of dwellings (82%) in 2016.
New for 2016 was the use of Statistics Canada’s common systems for the
census program
The communication strategy was also revamped.
The census brand was modernized
Specific strategies were developed for different key populations, including difficult to
reach groups
Collection efforts planned and coordinated based on predictive response model
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The census collection methodologies
Various collection methodologies:
Mailout using the information available in an Address Register - 82% of
dwellings in 2016
Questionnaire delivered to the dwellings by a census enumerator as
part of a list and leave operation - 16% of dwellings
Census collected directly at the door by a census enumerator - 2% in
First Nations communities, and in remote and northern areas
Income data obtained directly from the Canada Revenue Agency
Long-form collected for 1 in 4 households
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The Wave collection methodology
A little bit of history: The wave collection methodology used for the 2016 Canadian Census is largely
based on the theory of Dilman, and was first introduced for the 2011 Census.
The process: Based on the results of tests conducted during the 2011 Census, the method
was applied more uniformly for 2016, with a single treatment for mailout areas as
opposed to two different treatments in 2011.
It was left unchanged for list and leave areas.
The choice of treatments in mailout areas in 2011 (letter only or paper
questionnaire delivered in wave 1) was determined based on the propensity of
the population to self-enumerate as demonstrated in the 2006 census and on the
2006 Census internet take-up rate by area.
6
2016 Census Wave Methodology
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4
Letter Reminder
Letter
QuestionnaireAutomated Call
+Non-Response
Follow-up
Non-Response Non-Response Non-Response
May 11-13 May 18-27
May 2-9
Reminder /
Thank you
card
Non-Response
Follow-upNon-Response
May 11-13
Lis
t/L
ea
ve
(1
6%
)M
ail
-ou
t (8
2%
)C
an
va
ss
er
(2%
)
No Waves
May 2
Paper Questionnaire Request System
Questionnaire
Begins June 1
Begins May 20
All
26/10/2016Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada7
Results from 2016
Response objectives for the 2016 census were surpassed:
Overall collection response rate: 98.4%
with fairly low variance in rates at the Census sub-division level (communities)
Internet collection rate: 68.3%
Overall collection self-response rate: 88.8%
Collection response to the long-form: 97.8%
The higher quality of responses received by internet has been
demonstrated in previous censuses.
Lower rates of item non-response in 2016 compared to 2006 and 2011
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
01/0
5/2
01
6
02/0
5/2
01
6
03/0
5/2
01
6
04/0
5/2
01
6
05/0
5/2
01
6
06/0
5/2
01
6
07/0
5/2
01
6
08/0
5/2
01
6
09/0
5/2
01
6
10/0
5/2
01
6
11/0
5/2
01
6
12/0
5/2
01
6
13/0
5/2
01
6
14/0
5/2
01
6
15/0
5/2
01
6
16/0
5/2
01
6
17/0
5/2
01
6
18/0
5/2
01
6
19/0
5/2
01
6
20/0
5/2
01
6
21/0
5/2
01
6
22/0
5/2
01
6
23/0
5/2
01
6
24/0
5/2
01
6
25/0
5/2
01
6
26/0
5/2
01
6
27/0
5/2
01
6
28/0
5/2
01
6
29/0
5/2
01
6
30/0
5/2
01
6
31/0
5/2
01
6
01/0
6/2
01
6
02/0
6/2
01
6
03/0
6/2
01
6
04/0
6/2
01
6
05/0
6/2
01
6
06/0
6/2
01
6
07/0
6/2
01
6
08/0
6/2
01
6
09/0
6/2
01
6
10/0
6/2
01
6
11/0
6/2
01
6
12/0
6/2
01
6
13/0
6/2
01
6
14/0
6/2
01
6
15/0
6/2
01
6
Internet and Mail daily return rate (National)
Internet
Self-Response
Wave 1
Receiv
ed on
May 2
Wave 2
Received
between May
11-16
Wave 3
Received
between May
19-26
Voice
Broadcast
On May 30-31
Census
Day
On May
10
Impact of
Wave 2 Impact of
Wave 3
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
02/0
5/2
01
6
03/0
5/2
01
6
04/0
5/2
01
6
05/0
5/2
01
6
06/0
5/2
01
6
07/0
5/2
01
6
08/0
5/2
01
6
09/0
5/2
01
6
10/0
5/2
01
6
11/0
5/2
01
6
12/0
5/2
01
6
13/0
5/2
01
6
14/0
5/2
01
6
15/0
5/2
01
6
16/0
5/2
01
6
17/0
5/2
01
6
18/0
5/2
01
6
19/0
5/2
01
6
20/0
5/2
01
6
21/0
5/2
01
6
22/0
5/2
01
6
23/0
5/2
01
6
24/0
5/2
01
6
25/0
5/2
01
6
26/0
5/2
01
6
27/0
5/2
01
6
28/0
5/2
01
6
29/0
5/2
01
6
30/0
5/2
01
6
31/0
5/2
01
6
01/0
6/2
01
6
02/0
6/2
01
6
03/0
6/2
01
6
04/0
6/2
01
6
05/0
6/2
01
6
06/0
6/2
01
6
07/0
6/2
01
6
08/0
6/2
01
6
09/0
6/2
01
6
10/0
6/2
01
6
11/0
6/2
01
6
12/0
6/2
01
6
13/0
6/2
01
6
14/0
6/2
01
6
15/0
6/2
01
6
Internet daily return rate (2011 vs 2016)
Internet % 2016
Internet % 2011Impact of
Wave 3
Impact of
Wave 2
Census Day
26/10/2016Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada10
Response management
Strategy to manage the collection process
Dynamic predictive microsimulation model improved from 2011 to
optimize use of human and financial resources in pursuit of response
objectives.
Projected the end of collection by region based on a number of
parameters such as: Self-response levels;
Productivity of enumerators;
Projected attrition of enumerators;
Remaining number of cases to be resolved;
Hours worked per day by enumerator by area and by collection supports units
(telephone follow-up capacity).
Also forecast collection costs until the end of collection
Modeled every week during collection
Estimate the number of work hours to be added in any given
region/area to complete collection operations by the end of July at the
targeted response level.
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Response management (cont’d)
The results:
Because of actual and predicted favorable conditions during the 10
weeks of non-response follow-up, most areas in the country never
moved below tier 2.
At tier 2, collection continued in any given geographic area until a
response rate of 98.5% was reached for the short-form and 96% for the
long-form.
The preliminary assessments show that the predictive power of the
model was very accurate.
26/10/2016Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada12
Adopting corporate systems for the Census
Corporate Business Architecture
IT solutions and business processes developed for corporate use rather than for
individual program specific requirements.
The Census Program successfully adopted such solutions for 2016,
allowing economies of scale for the department and the census
program itself.
Common internet application (eQ) to replace the census-specific application
used since 2006.
Collection Management Portal (CMP) to replace the Field Management System
used in 2011.
Overall, the adoption of corporate solutions for the Census was
successful in 2016, and it is expected that their re-use in 2021 will
allow for important efficiencies
26/10/2016Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada13
Tailored communication strategy
The Integrated Communications Strategy (ICS) was designed as a social
marketing campaign.
Emphasis on research, segmentation, targeting and positioning.
Targeting strategy consisted of full market coverage and use of differentiated
marketing to reach difficult to enumerate audiences.
Statistical analyses guided the design, implementation and monitoring of
census communications activities.
ICS employed behavioral economics and sociodemographic segmentation to
identify hard-to-enumerate audiences.
Some adjustments to these solutions will be necessary for 2021.
Contributed to the overall increase in self-response compared to 2016.
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Preliminary results analysis
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Cumulative Returns - All Segments
2011 2016 projected 2016
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Preliminary results analysis
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
01-M
ay
02-M
ay
03-M
ay
04-M
ay
05-M
ay
06-M
ay
07-M
ay
08-M
ay
09-M
ay
10-M
ay
11-M
ay
12-M
ay
13-M
ay
14-M
ay
15-M
ay
16-M
ay
17-M
ay
18-M
ay
19-M
ay
20-M
ay
21-M
ay
22-M
ay
23-M
ay
24-M
ay
25-M
ay
26-M
ay
27-M
ay
28-M
ay
29-M
ay
30-M
ay
Daily Returns - Low-income Tenant
2011 2016
26/10/2016Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada16
Preliminary results analysis
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
01-M
ay
02-M
ay
03-M
ay
04-M
ay
05-M
ay
06-M
ay
07-M
ay
08-M
ay
09-M
ay
10-M
ay
11-M
ay
12-M
ay
13-M
ay
14-M
ay
15-M
ay
16-M
ay
17-M
ay
18-M
ay
19-M
ay
20-M
ay
21-M
ay
22-M
ay
23-M
ay
24-M
ay
25-M
ay
26-M
ay
27-M
ay
28-M
ay
29-M
ay
30-M
ay
Daily Returns - Single Unattached Mobile
2011 2016
26/10/2016Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada17
Lessons Learned
What’s next for Statistics Canada? : The approaches used to increase internet and self-response in the Canadian
census have again proven to be a success in 2016, following the successful
introduction of many of these in 2011.
The focus of the evaluations from 2016 will be on the potential for expansion of
the mailout universe which would increase the benefits of the methodology
further for 2021.
Particular attention will be dedicated to improving the methods of contact with
dwellings, anticipating that the efficiency of using traditional mail as the primary
mode of contact will diminish in the next 5 years as more and more people rely
on other means of communication, such as Internet.
26/10/2016Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada18
Fort McMurray
26/10/2016Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada19
Contact Information
Marc Hamel
(613) 951-2495