insights on disaster resilience from 2008’s disasters and disaster planning scenarios walter hays,...
TRANSCRIPT
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INSIGHTS ON DISASTER RESILIENCE
FROM 2008’S DISASTERS AND DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIOS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
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SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE DISASTERS
AND THE CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS
2008
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NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2008NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2008NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2008NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2008
CYCLONE NARGIS
WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE
FLOODING IN MIDWESTERN USA
TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES
WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA
ERUPTION OF VOLCANO CHAITEN
CATALYSTS FOR CHANGECATALYSTS FOR CHANGE
NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
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MAIN IDEA
Each disaster provides deeper insights on: 1) Protection, 2) Preparedness, 3)
Early Warning, 4) Emergency Response, and 5) Recovery and Reconstruction
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BOOK OF
BOOK OF
KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE
- Perspectives
- Perspectives
On Science, Policy,
On Science, Policy,
And DISASTER
And DISASTER RESILIENCE
RESILIENCE
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GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE
FLOODS
SEVERE WIND STORMS
EARTHQUAKES
DROUGHTS
LANDSLIDES
WILDFIRES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
TERRORISM
INCREASED TECHNICAL AND POLITICL CAPACITY OF COMMUNITY TO COPE
INCREASED TECHNICAL AND POLITICL CAPACITY OF COMMUNITY TO COPE
INCREASED OWNERSHIP AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE
INCREASED OWNERSHIP AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE
IMPROVE ON PAST IMPROVE ON PAST PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE
IMPROVE ON PAST IMPROVE ON PAST PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE
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YOURYOUR
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
YOURYOUR
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•PROTECTION•PEPAREDNESS•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT.
FIVE PILLARS OF FIVE PILLARS OF RESILIENCERESILIENCE
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QUICK REVIEWS
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SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS DURING 2008
• CYCLONE NARGIS, MYANMAR (BURMA), MAY 2-3
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PATH OF CYCLONE NARGIS: WARNING IGNORED: MAY 2-3, 2008
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CYCLONE NARGIS:
• People unprepared.• The storm's 120 mph winds
blew roofs off hospitals, downed trees, and cut electricity to the country's largest city, Rangon.
• Torrential rain caused local flooding.
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•Myanmar’s policies of self-sufficiency delayed entry of food and materials from all but a few countries, and usually without the skilled disaster workers.
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MAIN INSIGHTS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS
• WHEN YOU HAVE EARLY WARNING, USE IT TO EVACUATE THE PEOPLE IN HARM’S WAY
• MORE LIVES ARE SAVED AND RECOVERY IS ACCELERATED WHEN YOU ARE PREPARED TO ACCEPT INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
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SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS DURING 2008
• VOLCANO CHAITEN (CHILE), MAY 3
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AFTER 10,000 YEAR DORMANCY, CHAITEN ERUPTS IN CHILE
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CHAITEN‘S ERUPTION CHANGED THE STATUS QUO
•PRESIDENT DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY
•1500 EVACUATED
•DRINKING WATER CONTAMINATED
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CHAITEN CAUSES SEA EVACUATIONS
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MAIN INSIGHTS FROM VOLCANO CHAITEN
• EVACUATE THE PEOPLE IN HARM’S WAY WHEN YOU HAVE RELIABLE EARLY WARNING
• DON’T BECOME UN-PREPARED JUST BECAUSE NO ERUPTIONS HAVE HAPPENED FOR A LONG TIME, EVEN IF THE VOLCANO IS NOT IN YOUR COUNTRY
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SEVEN NOTABLE DISASTERS DURING 2008
• WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTH-QUAKE; MAY 12
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WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE
• 88,000 DEAD
• 25 MILLIONS HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED
• NO MODERN BUILDING CODE
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45,690,000 people were affected by the disaster.
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MAIN INSIGHTS FROM WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE
• BUILDINGS COLLAPSE, INFRASTRUCTURE LOSES FUNCTION, LIVES ARE LOST, AND MONEY IS WASTED WHEN BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE ARE NOT PROTECTED BY MODERN BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS.
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SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE DISASTERS DURING 2008
• FLOODING IN MIDWEST USA, JUNE 5-16
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AFFECTED MIDWESTERN STATES: JUNE 2008
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Thousands Evacuated and Hundreds of Thousands
AffectedFew Deaths, but Losses Reach
Billions5-16 June 2008
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FLOODED CORNFIELDS IN DECATUR, ILLINOIS; JUNE 5TH
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ILLINOIS' LEVEE BREAKS: JUNE 10TH
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SAND BAGS: CEDAR FALLS, IOWA; JUNE 11TH
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UNUSUAL FLOODING IN IOWA:
A “500 YEAR FLOOD” SITUATION DEVELOPED AS NINE IOWA RIVERS REACHED OR APPROACHED HISTORIC LEVELS.
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FLOODING: CEDAR RAPIDS, IOWA; JUNE 12TH
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MAIN INSIGHTS FROM USA’S FLOODS
• MONITORING, EARLY WARNING, EVACUATION, AND WETLANDS, SANDBAGS, LEVEES, AND DAMS ARE VITAL FOR SAVING LIVES AND PROTECTING PROPERTY.
• BEING PREPARED INCLUDES CONSIDERATION OF POSSIBLE WATER-BORNE DISEASES
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SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE DISASTERS DURING 2008
• 16 SEVERE WINDSTORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN; 2008 SEASON
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MAIN INSIGHTS FROM 2008’S SEVERE WINDSTORMS
• EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION TO MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY ARE VITAL FOR SAVING LIVES
• WIND ENGINEERING PROTECTS PROPERTY
• INSURANCE SPREADS RISK
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SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS
• CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES, JULY
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t
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MAIN INSIGHTS FROM CALIFORNIA’S WILDFIRES
• EARLY WARNING PROVIDES TIME TO EVACUATE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE IN HARM’S WAY
• POST-WILDFIRES SLOPES ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MUDFLOWS
• REGIONAL COOPERATION SPEEDS RESPONSE AND RECOVERY
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SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS
• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, ONGOING
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GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: A DEVELOPING ISSUE
• Small European glaciers are melting.
• Larger glaciers, Greenland, and Antarctica are also melting, but much slower.
• Average global temperature is rising.
• Sea level is rising.
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MAIN INSIGHTS FROM GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
• LONG-TERM MONITORING IS VITAL FOR UNDERSTANDING WHAT IS HAPPENING OVER TIME,AND WHY
• UNDERSTANDING IS THE KEY TO REALISTIC ADAPTATION TO THE CHANGES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES AND POLICIES
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CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIOS
NOVEMBER 2008
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ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR
Source: US Geological Survey
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THE GOAL: Identify the physical, social and economic conse-quences of major earthquakes in California, so that end users can identify what they can change now—before the earthquake —to avoid catastrophic impacts after the earthquake.
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• The Bay Area straddles the boundary between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates. • Much of the stress release is on the San Andreas fault, but some of it is relieved by the Hayward fault and other smaller parallel faults.
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• A Hayward fault earthquake is likely to be one of the nation's biggest natural disasters.
• A Hayward fault quake damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses and the campus of UC Berkeley and impacts 7 million people.
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• A M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage.
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• The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will likely lose some or all of their function for days to weeks.
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• The M7.8 ShakeOut earthquake will cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion losses. • These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs for buildings and lifelines.
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• The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses are as large as they are because much more retrofitting can still be done.
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MAIN INSIGHTS FROM THE CA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS
• DISASTER PLANNING IS INCOMPLETE WITHOUT REALISTIC INTEGRATION OF THE PAST WITH THE PRESENT