integrated assessment of mobility systems · technology lca costs fleet current future current...

SCCER Efficient Technologies and Systems for Mobility

Overview and Selected Topics from the Capacity Area B2

Stefan Hirschberg et al., PSI, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Coordinator B2

Integrated assessment of mobility systems

16.09.2016 3rd Annual Conference SCCER Mobility 1

SCCER Efficient Technologies and Systems for Mobility 16.09.2016 3rd Annual Conference SCCER Mobility 2

Integrated Assessment of Mobility Systems (CA B2)

Methods and Tools:

Vehicle Simulation, Life Cycle Assessment, Impact Pathway Approach, Comparative Risk Assessment, Learning Curves, Partial Equilibrium Modeling, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Living Labs.


Comprehensive assessment of a wide spectrum of options on the technological and overall system levels

Addressing sustainability of future mobility

Integrating socio-economic developments shaping the transport system and supporting the transformation process

Combining top-down vision with bottom-up approaches

3rd Annual Conference SCCER Mobility 3

How this research supports the SCCER Mobility Mission

16.09.2016

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f 2

01

0 V

alu

es

Goods transport

Passenger transport

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pe

rce

nta

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f 2

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0 V

alu

es

Goods transport

Passenger transport

Final energyconsumption

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50%

100%

150%

200%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f 2

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alu

es

Goods transport

Passenger transport

Final energyconsumption

CO2 emissions

Fuel Switching

Aerodynamics Hybridization

Increased Efficiency

Lightweighting

Fuel Cells

Modal Shift

SCCER Efficient Technologies and Systems for Mobility 16.09. 2016 Gil Georges et al. 4

Energy demand of the CH heavy-duty truck fleet based on individual vehicle movements and specifications

useful energy end energy

end energy market demand for end-energy

Image source: Eidgenössische Zollverwaltung

BFS surveys

LSVA

distance + payload

MOFIS

sta

t. m

odel

SCCER Efficient Technologies and Systems for Mobility 16.09.2016 Gil Georges et al. 5

Usage of the Swiss Heavy Duty Trucks goal: assess the sectorial Energy Demand

mobility demand

FE

CO2

BfS surveys

LSVA

movements of goods (type, weight, distance)

movements of vehicles (kind, capacity, distance)

performace of vehicles (odometer at given times)

Vehicle usage profile (payload + distance over time)

vehicle / fleet specs

MOFIS Catego- rization

Current gen. specs.

vehicle

specifications

trailer

specifications

Vehicle

specs

vehicle

simulation

driving cycle

vehicle trip

reconstruction

procedure

payload [kg]

sector-

specific

data


Average load factor: 72.3%

Average load capacity vs. distance share of «laden» distance, resolved by stage (= driving mission)

= 𝑙𝑘𝑚

𝑣𝑘𝑚 ∈ [0,1]


Example interventions on the Swiss road-based Freight Sector for more information refer to poster

Light Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty Vehicles

Interventions to all vehicles:

HEV: Hybrid electric vehicles

BEV: Battery electric vehicles

FCEV: Fuel cell electric vehicles

Interventions to all “Lastwagen” vehicles:

BEV: Battery electric vehicles

FCEV: Fuel cell electric vehicles

1) 18t, limited range

2) 40t, limited range

3) 40t, unlimited range

Light delivery truck Truck Sattelschlepper

SCCER Efficient Technologies and Systems for Mobility Stefan Hirschberg et al. 8

Transport LCA and Cost Result Status

16.09.2016

Technology LCA Costs Fleet

Current Future Current Future Current Future

Ge

ne

ral Fuel Cells

Co-ordinated with THELMA Project

(broad spectrum of results available) Batteries

Fuel Production

Pa

sse

ng

er

Cars As above Complete 2017

Motorcycles Complete Complete 2017

Buses 2016 2017

Trains Complete 2016 2016 2017

Airplanes Complete 2016 Complete 2017

Fre

igh

t

LDV Complete 2018 2018 2019

HDV Complete 2018 2018 2019

Trains Complete 2018 2018 2019

Airplanes Complete 2016 Complete 2017


Comparison of passenger transport modes

0 50 100 150 200 250

Urban

Regional

Interregional

City

Coach

<4 kW

4-11 kW

11-40 kW

>40 kW

Mini Car

Mid-sized Car

Luxury Car

Tra

inB

us

Mo

torc

ycle

Ca

r

g CO2 eq/passenger km

Road/ Track Production

Vehicle Production

Maintenance

Energy Supply

Exhaust Emissions

Brian Cox et al. 16-Sept-16 9


Sample Results- Aircraft

0 100 200 300

Mid sized car2050-OPT2050-BAU

20151990

2050-OPT2050-BAU

20151990

2050-OPT2050-BAU

20151990

Wid

eB

ody

Na

rro

wB

ody

Re

gio

na

l

Climate change (g CO2 eq/pkm)

Airport

Aircraft

Fuel Production

Landing and Take-Off

Cruise

0

50

100

150

200

0 4000 8000 12000

g C

O2

eq

/p

km

Distance (km)

REG

LNB

LWB

10

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8


20151990

2050-OPT2050-BAU

20151990

2050-OPT2050-BAU

20151990

Wid

eB

ody

Na

rro

wB

ody

Re

gio

na

l

Photochemical smog (g NMVOC eq/pkm)

Airport

Aircraft

Fuel Production


Cruise

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20


20151990

2050-OPT2050-BAU

20151990

2050-OPT2050-BAU

20151990

Wid

eB

ody

Na

rro

wB

ody

Reg

iona

l

Particulate Matter (g PM10 eq/pkm)

Airport

Aircraft

Fuel Production


Cruise

16-Sept-16 Brian Cox et al.


Integrative Assessment Methodology & Data Flow

11 Stefan Hirschberg et al. 16.09.2016

Fleet scenarios definition

(sales by drivetrain, energy source)

Env. impacts & external costs

(impact pathway approach,

ENSAD risk db)

Agent driving plans

Vehicle & energy chain LCA

(Ecoinvent background db)

Vehicle materials & energy chains

Grid modeling

(Optimal Power Flow)

Integrative analysis

Traffic simulation

(agent-based planning

for min travel time)

Vehicle performance

(driving cycle energy

use model)

System/scenario data

Charging energy demand

Charging generation mix

Energy, cost, LCI, LCIA

Optimal BEV/agent match

(payback distance)

Fleet modeling

(multi-criteria vector summation)

Decision aiding

(MCDA)

(class, drivetrain, materials, fuels)


Source: Hirschberg et al., 2016

12

Annual car fleet GHG emissions for base year 2012 and 2050 scenarios

16.09.2016

0

4

8

12

16

An

nu

al G

HG

em

issi

on

s (M

io t

on

ne

s C

O2 e

q) Direct (Tailpipe)

Drivetrains

BEV - Battery Electric Vehicles FCEV - Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles EV - ½ BEV, ½ FCEV HEV - Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Hydrogen

SMR - Steam Methane Reforming HYD - Electrolysis using Swiss Hydropower

Numbers are % fleet sales penetration in 2050. Balance of fleet is internal combustion vehicles.

0

4

8

12

16

An

nu

al G

HG

em

issi

on

s (M

io t

on

ne

s C

O2 e

q)

Additional lifecycle(in Switzerland)

Direct (Tailpipe)

0

4

8

12

16

An

nu

al G

HG

em

issi

on

s (M

io t

on

ne

s C

O2 e

q) Additional lifecycle

(Foreign)Additional lifecycle(in Switzerland)

Direct (Tailpipe)

Electricity

POM - Demand is SFOE “Political Measures” BAS - Supply is gas-dependent strategy RES - Supply is renewables strategy AVE - Charging is average generation mix MAR - Charging is marginal generation mix


Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Hierarchy

13 16.09.2016 Stefan Hirschberg et al.

SCCER Efficient Technologies and Systems for Mobility Source: Hirschberg et al., 2016 22-Aug-16 14 SCCER Mobility | |

Car Fleet Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Ranks - 50/50 Primary Non-Renewable Energy & GHGs


MCDA Ranks (equal weights)

Source: Hirschberg et al., 2016

22-Aug-16 15 SCCER Mobility | |


• Time horizon: 2010 – 2100

• Hourly representation of weekdays & weekends in Summer, Winter and an intermediate season

• Five end-use sectors with subsector description

Six industrial subsectors (chemicals, cement, metal, food,…)

Four categories of residential heating (existing-, new-, single- and multi-family houses)

• Detailed electricity and energy conversion modules

Existing and new electricity/heat generation technologies, hydrogen, biofuels, etc.

• Fully calibrated to the BFE’s 2010 energy balance

16

Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)

16.09.2016 Kannan Ramachandran et al.


Scenario Definition

• Base

Travel demands from SES 2050

Nuclear phase out and option for new gas power plants

Annual self-sufficiency in electricity supply

17

• Transport CO2 emission mitigation

40% CO2 emission reduction from 2010 level in transport sector as in the POM scenario (T-40)

T-60 (NEP target)

• Energy system wide CO2 mitigation

Whole energy system wide CO2 emission reduction of 60% by 2050 from 2010 level as in the NEP scenario variant C (S-60)

~ NEP variant E – i.e. 67% total reduction (or 80% in domestic CO2

emission) or (S-67) 16.09.2016 Kannan Ramachandran et al.

SCCER Efficient Technologies and Systems for Mobility 18

Car fleet in 2050: Technology



Electricity supply in 2050



• Sectoral vs. system approach Sectoral transport emission

cap shifts the emissions

20 16.09.2016 Kannan Ramachandran et al.

Total CO2 emissions in 2050

Additional cumulative costs (2015-

2050) compared to the Base case:

• 16-152 billion CHF for T40/T60

• 44-614 billion CHF for S60/S67


Research approach for system transformation: multi-level perspective with trend, stakeholder and individual behavior analysis

16.09.2016 Merja Hoppe et al. 21

Present Transformation Future

Mobility context and trends Energy transition

Mobility

Land use

Economy

Socio-economy

Socio-culture

Infra-structure & accessibility

Technology

Macro-level System transformation

Meso-level Socio-economic development

Micro-level Individual behaviour

Indicators of transformation

Recommendations


System Transformation: model for individual mobility behavior change => measures supporting change II. phase, model used for other projects

16.09.2016 22 Merja Hoppe et al.


Action fields: transformation process to be specified until end of phase I. => further elaborated in phase II.(Swiss transformation principles)

16.09.2016 Merja Hoppe et al. 23

• Short-term measures to quickly increase energy-efficiency

• Use of sustainable energy sources

• Introduction of new technologies

Efficiency increases and technological innovation

• Time-efficiency

• Cost-efficiency

• Energy-efficiency

Avoidance of rebound effects of efficiency increases on mobility demand

Paradigm shift from mode-based to intermodal mobility

• Digital and flexible workplaces and working times

• Distances between workplace and home

Development of the working world to meet sustainable mobility requirements

• Sufficiency principles for planning and decision making

• Quality of life in cities/agglomerations and mobility for leisure activities

Integrated spatial and transport planning


We run medium-to-large-scale

living lab experiments

(a few hundred users, voluntary participation)

16.09.2016 24 Francesca Cellina et al.

SCCER Efficient Technologies and Systems for Mobility Francesca Cellina et al. 16.09.2016 25

Reduce car use

Provide

motivation to change

Extrinsic

motivation

Provide alternatives

for change

Every living lab faces a different, specific aspect

We are not performing comprehensive analyses

Intrinsic

motivation

Dynamic

ridesharing +

public transport

Shuttle buses for

companies

Use different cars

Diffusion of

eletric mobility Intrinsic

motivation

Provide

motivation to change

Reduce car use


Every living lab faces a different, specific aspect – we a re not performing comprehensive analyses

Interdisciplinary approaches, combining social sciences, transport and ICT competences

Insights on the opportunities and barriers for behaviour change at the individual level

Identification of policy recommendations for future mobility scenarios (system transformation)

Concluded

in Spring

2015 e-mobiliTI

Potentials for the diffusion of electric vehicles and

for a wider transformation of

individual mobility patterns.

Concluded

in Spring

2016

MOBALT

MOBility

ALTernatives

Reduction in the use of the individual car when

commuting to work.

Use of a smartphone application providing

information on mobility alternatives.

Ongoing

GoEco! [in cooperation

with CAB1

ETHZ/IKG]

Reduction in the use of the individual car.

Use of mobility tracking algorithms and

gamification techniques (intrinsic motivation),

within a smartphone application.

Just

kicked-off SmarterLabs

Reduction in the use of individual car.

Use of mobility tracking algorithms and

gamification techniques (extrinsic motivation),

within a smartphone application.

Ongoing Social Car

Dynamic carpooling in urban areas by means of

a smartphone application.

Pilot study and assessment of the effectiveness

and barriers to its diffusion.

Living lab case studies

Francesca Cellina et al. 16.09.2016 26


Example: the GoEco living lab

Can we stimulate people to reduce car use

by providing them with information feedback on

their mobility behaviour and comparison with the

performances of other persons?

We use a «gamification» approach

27 Francesca Cellina et al. 16.09.2016


576 eligible participants

199 active users

602 applications

461 App downloads

Activity rates of the participants

were definitely lower than expected

Numbers are however larger than similar experiments

Francesca Cellina et al. 16.09.2016


The participants’ reference mobility patterns

16.09.2016

Six weeks tracking period (March-April 2016) Francesca Cellina et al.


Many participants have already reduced car use

Weren’t we looking for car-dependent people?

Francesca Cellina et al. 16.09.2016


CA B2 goals for Phase 1 will be reached; some will be exceeded

In Phase 2 we are aiming at:

Achieving “completeness” of interdisciplinary assessment of all current and future (known) modes of transportation

Implementing the full set of technologies in the overall system model integrating the future mobility and the energy system

Putting more emphasis on demand-related aspects including behavioral aspects (Joint Activities with SCCER CREST)

Supporting the transformation process

Increasing national and international visibility

Striving for increased external funding

31

Outlook

16.09.2016


L. Küng, G. Pareschi, M. Hugentobler, G. Gil, K. Boulouchos (ETHZ) “Strategic Guidance: Example interventions on the Swiss road-based Freight Sector”

G. Pareschi, L. Küng, G. Georges, K. Boulouchos (ETHZ) “Characterization of the Usage of the Swiss Heavy Duty Trucks with the Purpose of Assessing the Sectorial Energy Demand”: Pareschi Giacomo ([email protected]), Küng Lukas, Georges Gil, Boulouchos Konstantinos

A. Martinez (ETHZ), Bettina Hirl (SUPSI) “Energy Literacy, Environmental Attitudes and Efficient Vehicle Ownership”

Merja Hoppe, Tobias Michl (ZHAW), “Swiss Mobility System: Transformation Potential and Process”

D. Bucher, D. Jonietz, M. Raubal (ETHZ), F. Celina, R. Rudel, F. Mangili, C. Bonesana, A.-E. Rizzoli (SUPSI) “Challenges and Results from Deploying the GoEco! TrackerApp” (together with B1)

B. Cox and C. Mutel (PSI), “Environmental and Cost Assessment of Current and Future Urban Buses”

B. Cox, W. Jemiolo, C. Mutel (PSI) “Environmental Assessment of Swiss Aircraft Fleet Approach”

S. Hirschberg, C. Bauer, B. Cox, T. Heck, J. Hofer, W. Schenler (PSI), ”Integrated Assessment of Current and Future Mobility – SCCER Mobility & THELMA results”

K. Ramachandran, S. Hirschberg (PSI) “Long Term Swiss Mobility Energy Scenarios – An Integrated Energy System Approach”

32

CA B2 posters and acknowledgements

16.09.2016


Contact: [email protected]

Questions?

16.09.2016 3rd Annual Conference SCCER Mobility 33

integrated assessment of mobility systems · technology lca costs fleet current future current...

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