Integrated Environmental Modeling of Estuarine Systems

Peter Goodwin, Jay R. Lund,

Josué Medellín-Azuara,Christopher Enright, Benjamin Bray

June 7, 2016

International Association of Great Lakes Research Conference

University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada

Authors Team• Robert Argent, Bureau of Metereology Melbourne, AU

• Jiro Ariyama, California Delta Stewardship Council

• John F. Bratton, Limnotech

• Alvar Escriva-Bou, Public Policy Institute of California

• Joseph Lee, Hong Kong University of Science and Tech.

• Steve Lindley, US Geological Survey

• Michael McWilliams, Delta Modeling Associates & AnchorQEA

• Nigel Quinn, Reclamation, L. Berkeley National Laboratory

• Stuart Siegel, Siegel Environmental

• John Wolfe, Limnotech

• Integrated Environmental Management of Estuarine Systems Symposium Participants

http://integratedmodeling.ucdavis.edu

Estuarine Systems• About 22% of the cities

in the world are located in estuaries

• Provide ecosystem services and resources to support human needs and economic development in regions

• Subject to stress from many sources including• Changes in streamflows• Waste and nutrient

management• Loss of habitat• Fisheries• Invasive species

http://marlimillerphoto.com/estuaries.html

Estuary Systems are Inherently Complex• Physical Processes

• Multiple objectives

• Stakeholders• Upstream water users

• Water diverters

• Dischargers

• Interests

• Analysis is hard

Complexityexplorer.org

Bratton, DePinto, Wolfe (2015)

Models are useful, yet often create interdisciplinary lines

• Models• Improve understanding individual

processes

• Organize information and discussions

• In complex systems like estuaries • Disciplinary lines

• Reinforces fragmentation of science, management and policy discussions

• An interdisciplinary approach is needed, no single discipline is sufficient

Lesswrong.com

Symposium on Integrated Environmental Modeling of Estuarine Systems

• Funded by NSF, the California Delta Stewardship Council and UC Davis Center for Watershed Science

• May 21-23,2015 at UC Davis

• About 160 attendees

• Government agencies, academia, consulting firms, NGOs

• http://Integratedmodeling.ucdavis.edu

Symposium on Integrated Environmental Modeling of Estuarine Systems: Guiding Principles

1. Credibility, legitimacy and relevance

2. Models are never completed, just enhanced, evolved or abandoned

3. Implicit analysis of uncertainty and sensitivity

4. No generic model will address system complexity for every location

5. Common protocols should be encouraged

Integrative Approach Elements

• Data infrastructure

• Data driven models and data mining

• Open source

• Visualization and virtualization• Facilitate communication

• Inform decision makers

• Assist communication of issues

• Community modeling

Lach (2016)

Some Institutional and Technical Approaches can Help

• Institutional• Venue for Agencies, consulting firms, academia,

stakeholders• Institutional support, funding• Transparency and access to data and information• Moving from authority and competition to collaboration

• Development of interdisciplinary scientific understanding• Modular modeling• Component based• Open source• Data infrastructure• Visualization and virtualization

Peckham et al. (2013)

Water Resources in California

10

Hanak et al. (2011) Managing California’s Water

11

Problems of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

• Physical instability• Land subsidence

• Sea level rise

• Floods

• Earthquakes

• Ecosystem instability • Habitat alteration

• Invasive species

• Economic instability• High costs to repair islands

• Worsening water quality for agric. & urban users

California faces the high-stakes task of improving the Delta’s ecosystem health

• Multiple stressors are harming native species

• Scientific uncertainty, costs of mitigation fuel “combat science”

• Fragmented institutions impede effective management

• No time to waste for environment, economy

12

Most Californians use Delta resources and share responsibility for its ecosystem woes

A Delta Modeling Collaboratory

• Physical location

• Minimum staff

• Venue for collaborative work

• Model repository

• Conceptual model development

• Forum for problem solving: • algorithms,

• data infrastructure,

• web service interface

A Business CaseAttribute Current Practice Proposed Approach

Financial costs and financing

Project specific Economies of scale for general capability and staff for specific project,

Fragmentation and inefficiency

Costs of fragmented modeling high

Reduce fragmentation

Maintaining capabilities Costly for entities to maintain

Lower costs distributed across entities

Timeframe of information Drawn out, discussion on details, small group

Common models

Integrated understanding Discipline specialization Multidisciplinary

Prioritizing model and data

Difficult to achieve Coordination committee

Access to modeling expertise

Institutional barriers Broad access, available resources, rapid to teploy

Building and retaining long term talent

Limited career paths, misalignments, mentoring

Opens career pat, collaboration to build expertise supports agency program

Collaboratory Additional Features

• Establish and manage in partnership UC, USGS, CWEMF, Delta Science, NGOs and private

• Problem based, convene modelers

• Physical location with meeting space and virtual network

• Minimum staffing

• Capacity and contracting ability to receive funding

• Training for managers, legislative staffers, modeling experts

• Business model developed

• Support conceptual models and facilitation of regular updates

Description1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Development specific proposal for Delta

Modeling Center

Funding Aquirement

Formation of a Model Coordinating

Committee/Board of Directors

Development of a common modeling plan

Collaborative modeling of Delta

management in drought

Data sharing and its platform development

Development of web interface, animations,

and descriptions

Establishment of the Delta Modeling Center

Improvement in fish/ecosytem modeling

Improvement in operations and water

curtailments modeling

Improvement in economics modeling

Continuous model update and integration

Development of cooperation mechanismConsistent Effort

1st Year 2st Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th year and later

Actions with focus time

Timeline

Concluding Remarks• Estuaries are complex systems

• Models help improve quantitative understanding

• Fragmentation occurs and creates inefficiencies

• Successful schemes involve integration, cross-discipline, openness, data infrastructure

• No perfect data, no perfect models, learn from mistakes, hard to change the paradigm

• A Collaboratory can help advance research for managing estuarine systems

jmedellin@ucdavis.eduThank Youjmedellin@ucdavis.edu