integrated food production system
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Integrated
Food Production System1
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1CONSUMPTI0N
LAND
WATER
CLIMATE
PRODUCTION
SEED
FER
TILIZER
PES
TICIDE
MAC
HINERY
MATERIALS
INFORMATION
SYSTEMS
CAPITAL
HUMANRESOURCE
INSTITUTION FRESH FOODS
PROCESSED FOODS
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Less land
Less water
Climate changes
More food
Higher quality
Safer
The Challenges
HUMAN
ACTIVITIES
POPULATION
GROWTH
ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
CONVERSION
DEGRADATION
DEMAND
CON
STRAINT
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Todays resource scarcity is not only anacute problem in isolated locations;
it is also a global threat.
Schneider et al. (2011)
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The global dimension of the threat:
Total use of resources for food production
over all countries has reached substantial
proportions.
Todays societies are increasingly connected.
Cumulative impacts of local land use
decisions may cause significant global
environmental feedback, foremost throughclimate change
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Use of resourceshas reached substantial proportions
In 2005, agriculture occupied about 38% of theglobal land area (FAOSTAT, 2007)
Agriculture would need an area equivalent to
one half and two-third of the current terrestrial
land area by 2030 and 2070, respectively
Schneider et al. (2011)
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Global societiesare increasingly connected
More international trade National land use related policies are
increasingly embedded in international policies
Many different international treaties have been
adopted
Schneider et al. (2011)
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Impacts of local land useon global climate change
Impacts on availability and fertility of land, thelength of the growing season, fresh water
endowments, pest occurrences, CO2
fertilization, and the frequency of extreme
events related to draughts, flooding, fire, and
frost
Schneider et al. (2011)
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Population
Growth
Food Demand
Agric. Land
Demand
IncreaseUrban Area
Land
Conversion
Land
Degradation
Agric.
Intensification
Income
Growth
Animal-based
Food Demand
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The Solution
INTEGRATED
FOODPRODUCTION
SYSTEM
NATURAL
RESOURCES
HUMAN
RESOURCES
TECHNOLOGY
CAPITAL
POLICY &
REGULATION
INSTITUTIONS
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Integrated assessments are only valuable
if their results can be adequately
understood, interpreted, and compared
to other studies.
Schneider et al. (2011)
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From the application of this model to four alternative
development scenarios*, Schneider et al. (2011)gained several insights:
First
total global food production, consumption, and price levels
are relatively stable until 2030.
Secondrestricted arable land expansion into unmanaged forests has
little impact on food prices.
Third
per capita income changes have the highest positive impact
on per capita food consumption levels and exceed the
individual impacts of technical change.
* Four scenarios Global Orchestration, Order from Strength, and Adaptation Mosaic of the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and a revised B1 baseline emission scenario of the Special
Report on Emissions Scenarios
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Required Technology
TECHNOLOGY
ON-FARMTECHNOLOGY
PESTICIDE
SEED
AGRIC.
MACHINERY
FERTILIZER
DISTRIBUTION
TECHNOLOGY
PROCESSING
TECHNOLOGY
PACKAGING
STORAGE
TRANSPORT
TRADITIONAL
MODERN
MARKETING
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