inter fellous freilich

NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010 1

New Opportunities – International CollaborationUnderstanding Climate Change

Jean-Louis FELLOUSExecutive Director

Committee on Space Research

2NASA Project Management Challenge 2010 – Galveston, 9-10 February 2010

Observing climate and climate change

Climate observation present daunting challenges Detecting global temperature trends of 0.1° per decade, or

variations in solar constant of 0.1% over the same period of time, or global sea level rise of a few mm per year

Characteristics of a global climate observing system Climate-quality measurements should be taken with accurate,

calibrated instruments, converted into geophysical data, quality-controlled and stored in standard format. Data sets should be precise enough for the early detection of trends over the next decade, homogeneous in location, time and method, uninterrupted and long enough to resolve decadal trends, and with sufficient coverage and resolution to permit a description of spatial and temporal patterns of change.

Current observing systems are far for being adequate


Advances in observing techniques

Progress in satellite techniques (e.g., electronics miniaturisation, antenna design, communication rates, microwave radar techniques, stability of oscillators, detector sensitivity, etc.) have led to the development of active sensors and of smaller/better/cheaper satellites, providing huge amount of all-weather observations with ever-increasing resolution in space and time. Progress also affected ground-based (in situ) observing

systems, computing capabilities and numerical models. Space-based measurements can give access (uniquely

in some cases) to a wide range of climate variables relating to the atmosphere, ocean and land domains


Challenges and opportunities in building a global climate observing system

Financial and geographic challenges Necessary international cooperation and coordination

Compatibility challenge Combining data from different systems with varying

original purposes and diverse data collection, processing and storage schemes

Knowledge and innovation challenges New capabilities from R&D space agencies

Continuity challenge Once their value has been established, these

capabilities need to transition into ongoing, “operational” capabilities.


“Crossing the Valley of Death”

In a report to the U.S. National Research Council, a group of experts have compared the challenge of bridging the gap between research and operations to “crossing the Valley of Death.”


Four major issues

1. Observations of climate change Which are the key observations that require space-

based observations?2. Understanding climate change

Which are the key parameters that we do not observe sufficiently well today?

3. Modeling and forecasting Which are the observable parameters required by

models?4. Mitigating the consequences of climate change

What is the role of space observations?


Global observation needs for climate

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) was established in 1992 to address climate-related issues Over the years GCOS has published Adequacy Reports and a

10-year Implementation Plan to resolve the inadequacies The COP-10 (10th Conference of the Parties to the

United nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) adopted in December 2004 the following “Decision on research and Systematic Observation”: “Invites Parties that support space agencies involved in global

observations to request these agencies to provide a coordinated response to the needs expressed in the GCOS Implementation Plan”

The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) presented its response to COP-12 in November 2006


1. Do we know what needs to be observed and how?

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.”

(From IPCC AR4,Summary for Policy-makers)

A large fraction of climate change observations now come from space-based systems.

Source: IPCC AR4


Global Average Sea Level Rise:1.3 mm/yr from 1960 to 2003

Church et al., 2004, 2006

Holgate and Woodworth, 2004

Altimetry Satellites3,2 mm/yr

1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yr (1960 à 2000)


Arctic Sea Ice Extent Declinefrom microwave imagery – 1979-2009

Source: NSIDC


Yes, requirements have been carefully stated by GCOS…

Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-based Products for Climate

Supplemental details to the satellite-based component of the “Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (GCOS-92)”

**************************************************

GCOS Secretariat

GCOS-107WMO/TD No. 1338 September 2006


… and space agencies are well aware of the GCOS requirements

CEOS Response to the GCOS Implementation Plan – September 2006

Satellite Observation of the Climate System

The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Response to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Implementation

Plan (IP)

Developed by CEOS and submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) on behalf of CEOS by the United States of

America (USA) delegationVisit http://www.ceos.org for the full report


Do we miss something?

The space component of the World Weather Watch in 2006


Atmospheric Essential Climate Variables, status as of mid-2006


Terrestrial Essential Climate Variables, status as of mid-2006


Oceanic Climate Variables, status as of mid-2006


10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Ocean Surface Topography Constellation Roadmap

Jason-1 Fr./USA

ENVISAT ESA

High accuracy SSH from mid-inclination orbit

CRYOSAT-2 ESA

GFO US

Medium accuracy SSH from high-inclination sun-synchronous orbit

Jason-2 Europe/USA

Jason-3 Europe/USA

Jason-Continuity Series Europe/USA

Swath altimetry from high-inclination orbit (several orbit options)SWOT/WaTER-HM USA/Europe

Saral/AltiKa India/France

Jason-CS successor Europe/US

In orbit Approved Planned/Pending approval Needed

Orbit to be assessed

Sentinel-3B, -3C, -3DSentinel-3A Europe

HY-2B, -2C, -2DHY-2A China

ERS-2 ESA

0908


Yes, we mostly miss continuity !Pending Jason-3 decision

Situation improved thanks to decisions on ESA

Sentinels


Press release – February 2, 2010

Global sea level rise monitoring secured for next decade The transatlantic Jason-3 Program has now been approved by

EUMETSAT Member States (…). Nineteen EUMETSAT Member States have agreed to subscribe

to the Jason-3 ocean altimetry satellite program: Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Together, these countries are prepared to contribute €63.6 million (at 2009 economic conditions) to the €252-million program cost of Jason-3.

The Jason-3 program is led by EUMETSAT and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In addition, the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), the French space agency, is making a significant in-kind contribution to the program (…). The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), in conjunction with the three other partners, will support science team activities.


GEOSS – The Global Earth Observation System of Systems


CEOS Virtual Constellations for GEO

New implementation framework To inspire and facilitate commitments aimed at

harmonizing and sustaining observations within CEOS members in support of GEO and GEOSS

Four Initial Prototype Constellations Land Surface Imaging Ocean Surface Topography Global Precipitation Mission Atmospheric Composition

New Constellations Ocean Surface Wind Vector Ocean Color Radiometry


Land Surface Imaging Constellation

TERRA

LANDSAT

SPOT

ALOS

RESOURCESAT

IRS

CBERS

SAC-C

ALOS 50 m mosaic over Borneo

Forest Carbon Tracking Project

Landsat acquisition over Borneo


The Global Precipitation Constellation

The Global Precipitation Mission will include a rain radar and several passive microwave radiometers in polar-orbit …

… and the French-Indian MEGHA-TROPIQUES satellite to be placed in

20° inclination orbit in 2010


The Atmospheric Chemistry Constellation

Five of the six missions from the A-Train are already in orbit providing coordinated atmospheric composition measurements


Sentinel 1 – Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)All weather imagery, interferometry, polar regions

Sentinel 2 – Super-spectral optical imageryContinuity of Landsat, Spot & Vegetation data

Sentinel 3 – Ocean monitoringOcean color, sea surface temperature and sea surface topography

Sentinel 4 – Atmospheric Monitoring from GEOAtmospheric composition, transboundary pollution

Sentinel 5 – Atmospheric Monitoring from LEOAtmospheric composition

The European Space Agency Sentinels Program

http://www.esa.int/export/images/ibpIlu_ers,1.jpg�

http://esamultimedia.esa.int/images/envisat/sat_atmosphere_O.jpg�


2. Some major uncertainties in climate change understanding

Clouds and aerosols A-Train Polar ice balance CryoSat-2 Ocean natural variability vs. trends Jason +

Goce GHG sources/sinks Gosat/Ibuki, (OCO-2 ?) … and more


3. Space observations and decadalpredictions (after Trenberth, 2009)

Initialization Ocean, sea ice, land processes.

Forward integration of the coupled model The external forcing by greenhouse gases is prescribed.

Ensemble generation To give probabilistic nature

Calibration of model output Because of deficiencies in the component models the coupled

model output needs calibration. Verification of results and skill assessment

A priori knowledge of the quality of the forecastis required based on past performance.

Requires observations

Requires observations


4. Many space observations of climate change impacts, e.g., sea level rise…

Church et al., 2004, 2006

Holgate and Woodworth, 2004

Altimetry Satellites3,2 mm/yr

1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yr (1960 à 2000)


… or Arctic sea ice decline…

Source: NSIDC

Source: ESA/Envisat


… are there, but do we take these warnings seriously enough?

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

Michael H. Freilich10 February 2009

New Opportunities: International Collaboration –Understanding Climate Change

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OVERARCHING PRINCIPLES and OBJECTIVES

• The Earth is an integral, complex system– Many processes, with varying time and spatial scales– Quantitatively describing the interactions between processes is key

• Measurements must span all important variables, and all important scales

• Research leads to greater understanding, which is codified in numerical models – prediction

• Societal benefits result when understanding is combined with measurements so that useful information products are generated and actually used

• The problem of understanding and predicting climate change is too large for any single agency or even any single nation – efficient , effective collaborations are essential

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OUTLINE

• Brief overview of NASA Earth Science and Applications

• Key issues in Earth System Science collaboration– Need for rapid, transparent, free and open data exchange– Plethora of potential partnerso Many nationso Research and operational agencies

– Scope (measure new quantities) vs. continuity– Collaborative missions or collaborative programs?o Differences in program structures and approaches

between different international space agencies– Role(s) of (multiple) international coordination entitieso CEOS, WMO, GEOSS, ...

– Societal impacts/benefits lead to increased national leadership visibility

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Earth Science Division Overview• Overarching goal: to advance Earth System science, including climate

studies, through spaceborne data acquisition, research and analysis, and predictive modeling

• Six major activities:• Building and operating Earth observing satellite missions, many with

international and interagency partners• Making high-quality data products available to the broad science

community• Conducting and sponsoring cutting-edge research

– Field campaigns to complement satellite measurements– Analyses of non-NASA mission data– Modeling

• Applied Science• Developing technologies to improve Earth observation capabilities• Education and Public Outreach

• NASA’s Earth Science Program is unique: Space program with a comprehensive, broad-based research and applications element, and a research science/applications program with expertise and access to space

5

NASA Operating Missions – January 2010

OSTM/Jason 2 X

X

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NASA Operating Missions – International Collaborations

OSTM/Jason 2 X

X

International A-Train (end of CY2010)

88

CloudSat and Calipso in the A-Train

Vega

CloudSat trackCALIPSO track; CALIOP laser

Taken at 5/28/09, 3am local, 6 sec exposure; track visible because satellites illuminated while surface still in darkness

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FOUNDATIONAL PRINCIPLES OF EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS

• The Earth is an integral, complex system– Many processes, with varying time and spatial scales– Quantitatively describing the interactions between processes is key– Measurements must span all important variables and all important scales– Open, timely data exchange/availability is essential

• Understanding the integrated system requires coupled, coordinated activities (“end-to-end” approach)

– Measurements are important but not sufficient– Research combines measurements, develops understanding– Models codify knowledge, extend data, and can be used for prediction

when coupled with measurements– Open, timely data exchange/availability is essential

• Societal benefits result from useful information products based on research– Accurate, focused, timely – Predictably available– Understandable (product + user)

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Data Sharing/Availability Policy

• NASA commits to the full and open sharing of Earth science data obtained from NASA Earth observing satellites, sub-orbital platforms and field campaigns with all users as soon as such data become available.

• NASA recognizes no period of exclusive access to NASA Earth science data.

• NASA makes available all NASA-generated standard products along with the source code for algorithm software, coefficients, and ancillary data used to generate these products.

• All NASA Earth science missions, projects, and grants and cooperative agreements include data management plans to facilitate the implementation of these data principles.

• NASA enforces a principle of non-discriminatory data access so that all users will be treated equally. For data products supplied from an international partner or another agency, NASA restricts access only to the extent required by the appropriate MOU.

• NASA charges for distribution of data are no more than the cost of dissemination (OMB Circular A-130).

• NASA promotes an open data sharing policy in national and international fora including GEO and US GEO. NASA is vice-chair of the CEOS Strategic Implementation Team, and is also a contributing member of the Interagency Working Group on Digital Data.

http://nasascience.nasa.gov/earth-science/earth-science-data-centers/data-and-information-policy

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OUTLINE






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Diverse Range of Potential Partners/Participants

• In contrast with Space Science (Planetary, Astrophysics), many different agencies/nations, with differing resources and aspirations, have the desire and the capability (and accomplishments) to contribute to Earth observations from space– NASA, ESA, JAXA, CSA, CNES, CONAE, Korea, ISRO, Brazil, Thailand, ASI, …

• Interests and foci often overlap or compete • Sampling considerations can justify some coordinated

multiple measurements of the same quantity, but unnecessary duplication or low quality is not helpful

• Data product quality, transparency, and timeliness often vary between research vs. “operational” organizations

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Joint Missions, or Collaborative Programs?

• Joint missions are typical collaborations– Multiple contributions of hardware and services to a single

mission– Both research and operational organizations– Must manage for schedule to be successful

• Collaborative programs involve complementary missionsdivided among agencies– More common among operational agencies (NOAA does PM

polar met orbit, EUMETSAT covers mid-morning; GEO met sats, etc.)

– Absolutely requires transparent, full data exchange• Mission selection/definition approaches must be compatible

– Mission vision/definition (e.g. Decadal Survey) vs. competitive mission focus selection (e.g. Earth Explorer, Venture-Class)

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Decadal Survey Missions Next Generation

VENTURE-CLASS

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NASA Operating Missions – International Collaborations

OSTM/Jason 2 X

X

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BACKUP

inter fellous freilich

Technology

observations of climate

climate system

global observations

climatethe global climate

space based observations

consequences of climate

global observing system

spacebased systems