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THE NUMBER of ARTICLES

RESEARCH and APPLICATIONAN ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX AND CREDIT CARD EXPENDITURES IN TURKEY 1-18İsmail Orçun GÜNDÜZ, Gökhan SÖNMEZLER, Umut AKDUĞAN

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE OPINIONS OF TEACHER CANDIDATES ON THE INCLUSIVE EDUCATION 19-34Zeki ÖZKARTAL, Ahmet DÖNGER

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY EXAMINING DETERMINANTS OF FIRST HAND MORTGAGED HOUSE SALES IN TURKEY 35-49Umut AKDUĞAN, Gökhan SÖNMEZLER, İsmail Orçun GÜNDÜZ, Berk KÜÇÜKALTAN

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Dear readers, precious scholars.,

In this issue of our magazine, we have included a total of 03 research and application studies. In this issue of the journal, we would like to express our sincere thanks to the authors who support us with their valuable studies. We would also like to express our thanks and appreciation to the precious arbitration committee members who never leave us alone and enable this issue to meet with our dear readers with their worthful efforts and contributions, as they have done in each issue. We also greatly appreciate the efforts of the editorial board, system management, and the precious scholars taking place in the editorial board for making an effort in the background of the publication of this journal. Dear sci-entists, we still continue our applications and works to enable our journal to be in different indices. Our announcements about the evaluation of the studies published in our journal to be assessed by different readers and literatures also still continue. We have also speeded up our communication studies and the delivery of the journal and its issues to scientists and scholars all around the world. The next issue of our journal will reunite with the readers in December, 2017. In the hope of reuniting and meeting with you again with our next issue, we sincerely wish you, dear readers and precious scholars of the science world happiness, peace, goodness, and days full of science. Peace be with you, yours respectfully.

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX AND CREDIT CARD EXPENDITURES IN

TURKEY 1

İsmail Orçun GÜNDÜZ1, Gökhan SÖNMEZLER2, Umut AKDUĞAN3

1-2 Trakya University, School of Applied Sciences, Banking Department, Edirne / Turkey3 Trakya University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Public Finance

Department, Edirne / Turkey

ORCID ID: 0000-0002-8754-29151, 0000-0002-4301-60082, 0000-0001-8659-541X3

Abstract: The relationship between consumer confidence and household expenditures is analysed from a broad perspective. Consumer confidence, which reflects tendencies about future financial and economic situations related to certain events and/or uncertainties, has brought the generation of consumer confidence indexes that measure such tendencies into question. According to a hypothesis proposed, consumers are willing to spend more as their confidence about future personal economic situations and general economic conditions increase and they finance this tendency with increased credit limits. In this study, it was aimed to examine the relation-ship between consumer confidence index and consumers’ credit card expenditures in Turkey empirically. In this regard, the relationship between consumer confidence index and credit card expenditures was analysed through regression analysis by using monthly data retrieved from 2004:1 and 2006:1 periods. As a result of the analysis, unidirectional causal relationship from consumer confidence index towards household credit card expenditures was found. Also, when close attention was paid to the direction of relationship, upstream changes in consumer confidence index in previous terms increased household credit card expenditures in examined term.

Key Words: Consumer Confidence Index, Credit Card Expenditures, Turkey, Regression Analysis, Granger Causality Test

(1) Corresponding Author: İsmail Orçun GÜNDÜZ, Trakya University, School of Applied Sciences, Banking De-partment, Edirne / Turkey [email protected] Arrival Date 13.05.2017 Date of Admission: 19.09.2017 Article Type: (Research Application) Conflict of Interest No “Ethics Committee No”

Doi: 10.17364/IIB.2017.3.1

IIB INTERNATIONAL REFEREED ACADEMIC SOCIAL SCIENCES JOURNAL

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IIB INTERNATIONAL REFEREED ACADEMIC SOCIAL SCIENCES JOURNALwww.iibdergisi.com

July – August – September Issue 27 Spring Summer Year: 2017GEL CODE: C01-C13-D12-E00-E20-E70-R20 ID: 538 K: 383

(Economy)ISSN PRINT: 2146-5886 ISSIN ONLINE: 2147-172X

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INTRODUCTION

The analysis of consumer behaviour towards consumption expenditures has been a point of interest in the macroeconomic literature. Such interest towards consumer behaviour reflects a general opinion which emphasizes that macroeconomic accruements heavily de-pend on consumers’ expectations about fu-ture economic conditions (Cotsomitis and Kwan, 2006:597). This interest is bilateral: by considering that expenditure has the larg-est component of GDP, the first one which is in the academic field, is about factors affect-ing consumer behaviour; the second refers to an important variable for the ones who steer the economy because consumption is a reli-able pioneer indicator (Lamdin, 2008:281). Therefore, predicting trends in consumer ex-penditures is crucial. In this regard, the rela-tionship between consumer confidence and household expenditures is analysed from a broad perspective. However, consumer con-fidence is not a clearly-defined term (Berry and Davey, 2005:282). Consumer confidence conception cannot be explained solely in terms of macroeconomic variables bases and it includes other factors such as psychological components (Golinelli and Parigi, 2004:150). For example, times such as political crises or wars when economic uncertainty is high re-duce household expenditures by causing high fluctuations in consumer sentiment. In ad-dition to that, while consumer confidence is

considered to be one of the main determinants of the financial crisis, at the same time, it is seen as one of the factors that can stimulate economic recovery (Campelo et al., 2016:2). Joseph Stiglitz, an economist and an owner of Nobel Prize, has stated that dramatic decrease in consumer confidence caused 2008-2009 fi-nancial crisis. Yet, it is difficult to come to a conclusion on whether decrease in consumer confidence is a reason or a result of an eco-nomic crisis. Nevertheless, there is a common sense about losing of confidence increases depth of crisis, duration of crisis and particu-larly its negative impacts on real sector (Dees and Brinca, 2013:2).

Consumer confidence, which reflects ten-dencies about future financial and economic situations related to certain events and/or un-certainties, has brought the generation of con-sumer confidence indexes that measure such tendencies into question. The first consumer confidence survey has been developed by the University of Michigan in 1940s in the USA (Dion, 2006:2). Notion of designing con-sumer confidence indexes might help predict-ing consumption was proposed in 1963 for the first time (Croushore, 2005:436). Today, many organizations design and apply surveys to collect and to analyse data about the eco-nomic and financial situations of the consum-ers. Responses given to survey are compiled and used to create consumer confidence index. Consumer confidence index provides useful

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information about expenditure plans of the customers because it is related to changes in expenditures (Croushore, 2006:1). According to a hypothesis proposed, consumers are will-ing to spend more as their confidence about future personal economic situations and gen-eral economic conditions increase and they finance this tendency with increased credit limits. It is an empirical problem whether this behaviour reflects over data or not (Lamdin, 2008:279).

The purpose of this study is to examine the re-lationship between consumer confidence in-dex and consumers’ credit card expenditures in Turkey empirically. In this regard, the rela-tionship between consumer confidence index and credit card expenditures will be analysed through regression analysis by using monthly data retrieved from 2004:1 and 2006:1 peri-ods. Within this context, primarily the stag-nation of the series will be examined through both traditional unit root tests, and structural refracting unit root tests. Then, Granger cau-sality test will be used to determine causality relationship between the variables. An appro-priate model among the different regression models which will be generated through ob-tained and the results of the prediction will be interpreted. In this study, firstly, the theory of consumption, consumer confidence and literature review will be discussed; then used econometric methods and the findings will be

given. In the conclusion the assessment of the results of the analysis will be included.

CONSUMPTION THEORY, CONSUM-ER CONFIDENCE and LITERATURE REVIEW

Basically, consumption expenditure is a func-tion of income. Economist John Maynard Keynes has connected income and consump-tion expenditures for the first time. Keynes’s absolute income hypothesis indicates that if income increases, consumption expendi-tures increase as well, but such increase in expenditures will be less than income. The approach that connects Keynes’s consumer expenditures with short-term income also brings inconsistency of expenditures into consideration. On the other hand, in standard Keynes approach, ‘animal spirits’ concept has influenced economic thought for a long time; it has been at the heart of the impor-tant discussions in terms of the confidence of economic agents and the economy. In this regard, consumer confidence has become one of the most common topics (Lahiri et al., 2016:1254). However, the standard theory of consumer behaviour was developed by Frango Modigliani and Richard Brumberg (life-cycle hypothesis, 1954) and by Milton Friedman (permanent income hypothesis, 1957) (Dion, 2006:2). According to the life-cycle hypothesis, households create expendi-ture plans based on savings in high-income

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periods, and spending their savings in low-income periods. Therefore, savings allow income transfers from high-income periods to low-income periods. As a result, current consumption is shaped according to current wealth and lifetime income. In permanent income hypothesis, while the planning hori-zon which consumers use as base has been narrow-defined, the changes in permanent in-come need to be confirmed in order to identify whether they are temporary or not. Life-cycle hypothesis has made significant contribu-tions to the consumption theory literature by considering saving tendencies of households and adding wealth to the consumption func-tion. Likewise, permanent income hypothesis supports consumption theory literature with its emphasis on how consumers shape future expectations on income (Özdemir, 2013:6-7). Lifelong income and permanent income theory can be summarized by the equation as follows:

In this equation, C indicates consumption, r indicates fixed real interest rate, Y indicates disposable income, and E indicates expecta-tions (Dion, 2006:4).

Robert E. Hall has expanded these theories by explaining how households appraise life-long revenues in the future (Dion, 2006:4). Therefore, Hall has argued that current con-

sumption is sufficient to predict future ex-penditures with his rational expectations permanent income hypothesis (Khan and Che, 2012:518). Also, there is no income un-certainty in rational expectations permanent income hypothesis. Factor which stretches this specific assumption is that income un-certainty causes precautionary savings (Dion, 2006:4). According to Hall, consumption has a random progress, so future consumption is just a function of current consumption, and all other information is irrelevant (Fornell et al., 2010:28). Accordingly, consumption is ir-relevant with any variable observed in previ-ous periods (Hall, 1978:972). So, consumer confidence index should be expected values of macroeconomic variables and that’s why they cannot provide any additional informa-tion (Kilic and Cankaya, 2016:3062).

Rational expectations permanent income hypothesis has been criticized from some perspectives. According to Campbell and Mankiw (1991:753), consumption is not only affected by changes in permanent income, but also changes in current income. Mishkin (1978:218,229) has stated that consumers who feel financial stress and who have dif-ficulties to make current payments try to have liquid financial assets, and reduced their expenses by reducing their demands for du-rable goods which are difficult to exchange to liquid and costly within the framework of liquidity hypothesis. Financial attitudes of in-

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dividuals coincide with the definition of the financial stress of the questions in the survey related to individuals’ work-related expecta-tions and conditions of purchasing household goods. Thus, Mishkin has stated that con-sumer confidence index provides information about expenditures for durable goods because it measures the possibility of having financial stress .

Within this framework, another approach is to associate consumption with animal sprits (Dees and Brinca, 2013:2). George Katona has tried to enlighten various elements that traditional consumption theories have been inadequate in explaining by using his psycho-logical approach. According to this approach, consumers’ consumption claims are not only identified by reactions given to economic variables, but also other factors such as politi-cal crisis and wars (Özdemir, 2013:8). There-fore, consumer confidence reflects consum-ers’ subjective situations besides economic conditions. According to Katona, consumers’ confidence level regarding their financial sit-uation in the future is the main indicator of consumption decisions (Kilic and Cankaya, 2016:3063). In their study, Acemoglu and Scott have revealed that consumer expendi-tures might also be affected by non-economic factors, and affect household consumption demand negatively with increasing uncer-tainty perception (Dees and Brinca, 2013:2). Moreover, they have stated that consumer

confidence can predict consumption, it has showed that to contribute to the prediction of consumption does not make consumers to use all of their knowledge sets; that’s why they have pointed that consumption goes beyond the definition of rational expectations perma-nent income hypothesis (Özdemir, 2013: 9, 10). Akerlof and Shiller (2009: 34) have ex-plained that there will not always be a reason for the confidence of people, so it is not only formed of a rational prediction.

The potential prediction power of consumer confidence index has necessitated the revi-sion of the life cycle and permanent income hypothesis. In current literature, it has been observed that consumer confidence can pre-dict the part of consumption that cannot be explained by the traditional macroeconomic variables. Following equation summarizes revised the life cycle and permanent income hypothesis. In this equation, Z is a vector of macroeconomic variables (Dion, 2006:7).

Studies about the consumer confidence index constitute quite a large and a rich literature. It is possible to provide some up-to-date studies as examples. Lahiri et al. (2016: 1274) and Kilic and Cankaya (2016:3071) have found that consumer confidence significantly and positively contributes personal consumption expenditures in their studies focusing on US

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economy in 1982-2014 and in 1994-2013 re-spectively. Karasoy and Yunculer (2015:3) have reached similar results in their study that focuses on 2002-2014 period in Turkey. Dees and Brinca (2013:13) have also found simi-lar results in their study that focuses on US and European Union, and they have revealed that the relation becomes more obvious when there are dramatic changes in household sur-vey indicators. In a study examining Euro-pean Union, Celik and Ozerkek (2009:164) found similar results, and they concluded that there were long-term relationships between consumer confidence index, stock index, real foreign exchange, and personal consumption expenditures. On the other hand, it has been observed that the number of studies examin-ing the relationship between consumer con-fidence index and credit use is quite limited in the literature. In the study which Lamdin (2008:279) held in the USA between 1978-2007 the relationship between consumer con-fidence index and credit card use has been ex-amined and the study has concluded that con-sumer confidence impacted credit card use at different delay levels. Klopacka (2017:693) has conducted a study to examine impact of consumer confidence households’ tendency on savings and overdraft in Poland with re-spect to 2002-2014 period, and has concluded that consumer confidence has power to pre-dict saving and overdraft and it has potential to provide information about future saving

and overdraft rates of households. Arısoy and Aytun (2014:33) have found statistically pos-itive and meaningful relationships between consumer confidence index, consumption ex-penditures, and consumer credits as a result of the study that has examined 2005-2012 pe-riod in Turkey.

DATA, METHOD and FINDINGS

In this study, data regarding “Consumer Con-fidence Index (CCI)” variable was retrieved from Turkish Statistical Institute, and data regarding “Credit Card Expenditures (CC)” variable was collected from the Interbank Card Centre and it covers the 2004M01-2016M01 period. Series of credit card expen-ditures was deflated by “Consumer Price In-dex (2003=100)” values retrieved from Turk-ish Statistical Institution.

In this study which has focused on the im-pact of consumer confidence on credit card spending in Turkey, causality and regression analyses have been conducted. In this regard, primarily, stability of series belonged to the examined variables was analysed through unit root tests because series included in the analyses should not have a strong trend in order to reveal meaningful relationships be-tween variables. Thereby, reality or artifici-ality of relationships revealed by regression analysis is closely related to stationarity of time series.

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Although there are several methods to exam-ine stability of time series, Augmented Dick-ey Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Ng-Perron unit root test that are among traditional unit root tests will be used in this study. In ADF unit root testing developed by Dickey and Fuller (1979), it is shown whether time series variables are explained with an autoregres-sive process or not. When a regression model is designed with values of series in t period and t-1 period in order to understand the kind of process that time series pass through, this model becomes first-level autoregressive model as shown below (Enders, 2003:211-221).

In the model stated above, is the stochastic error term. is time series with con-vergence. If | < 1 then series is stable, but if | | = 1 then series is not stationary and vari-ance of is . In general, this process is named as random progress and first level dif-ferences of this random progress are stable.

On the other hand, it is known that other unit root tests such as ADF, PP, and KPSS have some disadvantages. Such disadvantages have been defined as the tests having low power, the roots of the moving average ap-proach to -1 in the implementation of these tests causing sample volume distortion, the affecting of the length of the delay selected to the distortion of the volume of the sam-ple selected when the roots of the equation for an autoregressive unit root tests are close to one or less than one (Esteve and L-Lopis, 2005:2330). Ng-Perron unit root tests are tra-ditional unit root tests observed in the volume size distribution of the error terms to correct the distortion, resulting in improved tests and generally give more reliable results. Thus Ng-Perron unit root test provides more reli-able results than traditional unit root tests.

In this respect, Table 1 and Table 2 show the results of ADF unit root test and Ng-Perron unit root test respectively.

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Table 1. ADF Unit Root Test Results

Series ADF Test StatisticsCritical Values Deterministic components included in

the model%5 %10

CC -2,4871 (13) -3,4444 -3,1470 Coefficient, Trend

ΔCC -1,2436 (13) -1,9433 -1,6150 -

Δ2CC -9,8727* (12) -1,9433 -1,6150 -

CCI -2,5649 (2) -3,4417 -3,1454 Coefficient, Trend

ΔCCI -9,0784* (1) -1,9430 -1,6152 -

Note: “Δ” indicates first difference series, whereas “Δ2” indicates second difference series. (*) indicates significance at 5% level. Maximum delay length is 13. Optimal delay lengths were determined based on Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), which are shown in parenthesis next to ADF test statistics. Critial values provided by MacKinnon (1996) were shown by statistical software package. Deterministic components (coefficient and trend) included in the model were selected by examining time way graphics of time series.

According to ADF unit root test results, CC series is second degree stable, whereas CCI series is first degree stable.

Table 2. Ng-Perron Unit Root Test Results

Series

CC -60,7068* -5,4258* 0,0893* 1,8895*

CCI -6,6217 -1,7713 0,2675 13,795

ΔCCI -51,2986* -5,0484* 0,0984* 0,5187*

Note: Model used for analysis of CC and CCI variables includes both trend and coefficient, whereas model that was used for ΔCCI include only coefficient deterministic component. Delay length is determined as 5 by using formula. Based on this, obtained critical values were retrieved from Ng-Perron (2001) and (*) indicates significance at 1% level.

According to Ng-Perron unit root test results, CC series is stable at level value, whereas CCI series is first degree stable.

One of the criticisms of standard unit root test is related to stable series with structural re-

fraction seems like it is not stable. There is a possibility of rejecting the null-hypothesis by mistake if stationary time series is ex-posed to structural break at level, trend or both, and if structural break is not included in unit root tests (Patterson, 2007:277-278).

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As seen in both Table1 and Table 2, the re-sults may differ as they differ in CC series when structural refraction is not taken into consideration in ADF and Ng-Perron unit root tests. On the other hand, Lee-Strazicich (2004) unit root test is one of the unit root tests that consider structural refraction. With one structural refraction LM unit root test (Lee-Strazicich, 2004) and two structural refraction LM unit root test (Lee-Strazicich, 2003), Lee-Strazicich unit root test has some advantages when it is compared to other unit root tests that take structural refraction into consideration. One break unit root tests might cause false rejection problem if there is a re-fraction, and this problem has been addressed in (Lee-Strazicich, 2003, 2004) one and two refraction(s) unit root tests. In this regard,

Lee-Strazicich (2003, 2004) developed one and two refraction LM unit root test, which allows structural refraction under the null and alternative hypotheses. According to Cook (2005:56), if a test developed for this purpose rejects null hypothesis then this truly shows stability.

It is critically important to determine appro-priate models in Lee-Strazicich structural re-fraction LM unit root tests. In this study, an approach from general to specific was adopt-ed. Tests were started with two refraction LM unit root test. Depending on the significance of refractions, an appropriate model has been chosen by either narrowing the model or switching to the one refraction LM unit root test. Table 3 shows the results indicated by one and two structural break unit root tests.

Table 3. Lee-Strazicich One and Two Break LM Unit Root Test Results

SeriesCritical values

%1 %5 %10

CC2008:11

2011:03-8,43a

260,67

(0,43)

-535a

(-3,54)

-1172b

(-1,97)

-1114a

(5,83)-6,45 -5,67 -5,31

CCI 2010:05 -3,821,101

(0,42)

1,691a

(2,95)- - -5,11 -4,51 -4,17

ΔCCI2006:04

2008:11-10,05a

-5,04c

(-1,83)

2,89a

(3,57)

5,84b

(2,16)

-1,74a

(-2,91)-6,16 -5,59 -5,27

Note: estimated break date, t-statistics for LM unit root test, t statistics are shown in parenthesis. Critical values regarding test statistics were retrieved from Lee-Strazicich (2003, 2004) based

on calculated ve values. a, b and c indicate 1%, 5% and 10% level significance respectively. Normal distribution table is used for critical values for dummy variables which were used to determine significance of breaks, and values are 2,576, 1,96 and 1,645 at 1%, 5% and 10% significance level respectively.

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As a result of stationary analyses, CC series, which is related to credit card expenses, was stable under two refraction level, whereas CCI series, which is related to consumer con-fidence index, was stable under two-refrac-tion level after taking the difference.

Refractions determined as a result of structur-al break LM unit root tests were assumed as the reason of obtaining different results from stability analyses run by using ADF and Ng-Perron unit root tests which belong to tradi-tional unit root tests. In this phase, the analy-sis was progressed using stability modes of series used for predicting regression models.

However, before this phase, series that are sta-ble under refractions should be cleared from the refractions. According to Lee-Strazicich one and two refraction LM unit root test re-sults, forcing series to become stable by tak-ing first difference might be misleading and might cause fake results if there is a structural refraction in series. For this reason, series that become stable under structural refractions should be cleared from impacts of structural refractions (Altinay and Karagol, 2005:854). Within this context, removing impact of re-fractions in series that has structural refrac-tions is possible with the following model.

In this model, if t ≥ then ; other-wise, if 0 and t then ; if then . which is the resid-ual series obtained by predicting the regres-sion indicates series purged from refractions. In practice, latter A was added to the name of the series in order to indicate series purged from refractions.

Before continuing to regression analysis, VAR based on “Granger Causality Test/ Block Exteriority Wald Test” will be applied to de-termine possible causal relationships between

variables. In Granger causality test based on VAR, statics were calculated for each variable by taking appropriate delay length that cause Chi-Square distribution that has (n-m) degrees of freedom when dimen-sions of constraint vector becomes nxm. For this test, AIC information criteria was consid-ered to determine appropriate delay length, attention was paid to have a decisive model that has no autocorrelation and constant vari-ance. Table 4 shows the results of Granger causality test.

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Table 4. Granger Causality Test Results

Chi-Sq df Prob.

0,597 2 0,7419

10,9252* 2 0,0042

(*) indicates statistical significance at 1% level. df indicates degrees of freedom and optimum delay length of the models.

According to obtained results, null hypoth-esis that states “ACC is not a Granger cause of ACCI” has not been rejected at all signifi-cance levels, but null hypothesis that indi-cates “ACCI is not a Granger cause of ACC” has been rejected at 1% significance level. Based on this, there is a unidirectional causal relationship from consumer confidence index towards credit card expenditures.

Accordingly, different regression models have been developed by using variable of credit card expenditures, ACC, which was

purged from refractions and was stable at level as dependent variable; current value of variable related to consumer confidence in-dex, ACCI, which has also been purged from refractions and stable with delayed values of ACC and ACCI variables as independent variables. Depending on significance of vari-ables and conformity of model as a whole, the best model has been chosen among those predicted regression models and its results have been discussed. In this context, predict-ed multiple linear regression model has been determined as follows:

In this model, included in the right hand side of the model indicate current and delayed values of consumer confidence in-dex, whereas indicates delayed val-ues of credit card expenditures. Designed models will be predicted using least squared method. In order to analyse assumptions of this model, Breusch-Godfrey LM autocorre-lation test and autoregressive conditional het-

eroscedasticity (ARCH-LM) will be used. An approach from general to specific has been adopted for designed models. First, broad model has been predicted then the model has been narrowed depending on the significance of parameters and results of diagnostic tests run for the model. Also, Akaike information Criteria (AIC) and Schwarz Information Cri-teria (SIC) have been considered to determine

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appropriate delay times for the model, and the model has been chosen as the best model when AIC and SIC were minimum. In this

regard, predictive results of designed models and results of diagnostic tests run for model fit are shown in Table 5.

Table 5. Prediction Results Obtained from Regression Models

Independent variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5

41,94

(0,39)- - - -

22,60

(0,70)

22,15

(0,69)

24,33

(0,76)

31,25

(1,00)

88,13a

(2,73)

89,33a

(2,78)

94,35a

(2,99)

90,31a

(2,89)

94,04a

(3,03)

-36,66

(-1,08)

-32,66

(-0,98)

-38,93

(-1,19)- -

-38,57

(-1,03)

-34,15

(-0,93)- - -

0,82a

(9,54)

0,81a

(9,58)

0,82a

(9,75)

0,80a

(9,72)

0,79a

(9,69)

0,22b

(2,03)

0,16c

(1,91)

0,16c

(1,84)

0,18b

(2,16)

0,18b

(2,17)

-0,08

(-0,93)- - - -

Adj-R2 0,9187 0,9194 0,9195 0,9191 0,9192

AIC 16,67 16,65 16,63 16,63 16,62

SIC 16,83 16,77 16,74 16,70 16,68

F-Statistics

(prob.)

227,25a

(0,0000)

265,25a

(0,0000)

320,97a

(0,0000)

402,14a

(0,0000)

535,88a

(0,0000)

Breusch-Godfrey

LM Test (2)

1,70

(0,1865)

1,36

(0,2590)

1,16

(0,3135)

1,06

(0,3472)

1,20

(0,3021)

ARCH-LM (1)0,0058

(0,9391)

0,0012

(0,9720)

0,0004

(0,9831)

0,0000

(0,9991)

0,0003

(0,9854)

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All predicted models have satisfied the ma-jority of the assumptions. However, as shown in table 5, model 5 was the model that has minimum delay lengths determined based on AIC and SIC information criteria. Addition-ally, statistical significance of each coefficient obtained as a result of prediction analysis, all

parameters included in model 5 were signifi-

cant. Adj-R2 that indicates explanatory power

of a model was at the highest level in model

5 when compared to others. In this regard,

prediction results obtained from model 5 are

discussed.

Credit card expenditures have been affected by consumer confidence index positively after one term delay. In other words, the up-ward change in the consumer confidence in-dex in the examined period increases credit card expenditures. Credit card expenditure is also affected by its own delay. In this regard, first and second delays of credit card expen-ditures affect current value of credit card ex-penditures positively. However, it was also revealed that the impact of first delay value is larger than the impact of second delay value. So, explanatory rate reduces future delays in credit card and it disappears after second de-lay.

CONCLUSION

Consumer confidence is considered to be one of the main macroeconomic indicators since it is an indicator of the way of households’ spending plan. In this regard, it is expected that when people are worried about the fu-ture, they spend less money but when peo-ple feel secure, they are willing to spend

more and use credits to meet their increasing spending. In this study, consumer confidence index has been tested as an explanatory vari-able of household credit card expenditures empirically. As a result of the analysis, unidi-rectional causal relationship from consumer confidence index towards household credit card expenditures has been found. This result shows similarities with results indicated by a study conducted by Lamdin who has ana-lysed 1978-2007 time periods in the USA. Also, when close attention is paid to the di-rection of relationship, upstream changes in consumer confidence index in previous terms increase household credit card expenditures in examined term. Therefore, obtained analy-sis result corresponds with common sense which indicates that increases in credit card expenditures are indicators of consumer con-fidence index.

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TÜRKİYE’DE TÜKETİCİ GÜVEN ENDEKSİ İLE KREDİ KARTI HARCAMALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ

Öz: Giriş: Tüketici tutumunun tüketim harcamaları üzerindeki etkilerinin analiz edilmesi mak-roekonomi yazınında süregelen bir ilgi alanı olmuştur. Tüketici davranışlarına olan bu ilgi mak-roekonomik gerçekleşmelerin ağırlıklı olarak tüketicilerin gelecekteki ekonomik koşullarla il-gili beklentilerine bağlı olduğuna dair genel bir düşünceyi yansıtmaktadır. Bu ilgi iki yönlüdür: İlki akademik alanda olup özellikle tüketimin GSYİH’nın en büyük bileşeni olduğu gerçeği altında tüketim davranışlarını nelerin etkilediği ile ilgilidir. İkincisi ise tüketimin güvenilir bir öncü gösterge olması nedeniyle ekonomiyi yönetenler için önemli bir değişken olmasıdır. Dolayısıyla, tüketici harcamalarındaki gelişmeleri öngörmek kritik önemdedir. Bu doğrultuda tüketici güveni ile hanehalkı harcamaları arasındaki ilişki geniş bir ölçüde analiz edilmektedir. Ancak, tüketici güveni çok açık olmayan bir kavramdır. Sadece makroekonomik değişkenler temelinde özetlenemeyen bu kavram, psikolojik faktörler gibi diğer unsurları da içerir. Örneğin, politik kriz veya savaş gibi ekonomik belirsizliğin yüksek olduğu dönemler, genellikle tüketi-ci hassasiyetinde yüksek düzeyde dalgalanmaya neden olarak hanehalkı tüketiminde düşüşe neden olur. Bunun yanısıra, tüketici güveni finansal krizlerin başlıca belirleyicilerinden biri olarak değerlendirilirken aynı zamanda ekonomik iyileşmeyi harekete geçirebilecek faktörl-erden biri olarak görülür. Nobel Ödüllü iktisatçı Joseph Stiglitz 2008-09 finansal krizinin güven kaybında yaşanan büyük bir düşüşten kaynaklandığını ifade etmiştir. Yine de güven kaybındaki düşüşün finansal krizin nedeni mi yoksa sonucu mu olduğu konusunda kesin bir yargıya varmak zordur. Buna karşın güven kaybının krizin derinliğini, süresini ve özellikle reel sektör üzeri-ndeki olumsuz etkilerini artırdığı konusunda bir fikir birliği olduğu ifade edilebilir. Tüketici güveninin gelecekteki finansal ve ekonomik durumla ilgili belli olaylar ve/veya belirsizlikler ile ilgili eğilimleri yansıtması, bu eğilimleri ölçecek tüketici güven endekslerinin oluşturulmasını gündeme getirmiştir. İlk tüketici güveni anketi 1940’lı yıllarda ABD’de Michigan Üniversi-tesi tarafından geliştirilmiştir. Tüketici güven endekslerinin oluşturulmasının tüketimi tahmin etmede yararlı olabileceği fikri ise ilk olarak 1963 yılında gündeme gelmiştir. Günümüzde birçok kuruluş tüketicilerin ekonomi ve mali durumlarıyla ilgili ne söylediklerini incelemek amacıyla anket uygulamaktadır. Ankete verilen cevaplar derlenmekte ve tüketici güven endeksi oluşturmak için kullanılmaktadır. Tüketici güveni, harcamalardaki değişimle ilişkili olduğu için tüketici güven endeksleri tüketicilerin harcama planları ile ilgili yararlı bilgi sağlarlar. Konu ile ilgili ortaya konan bir hipoteze göre tüketiciler gelecekte kendi ekonomik durumu ve genel ekonomik şartlarla ilgili güveni arttıkça daha fazla harcama yapmaya istekli olurlar ve bunu

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artan kredi miktarı ile finanse ederler. Bu davranışın verilere yansıyıp yansımadığı ise ampirik bir sorundur. Amaç: Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de tüketici güven endeksi ile kredi kartı harcamaları arasındaki ilişkinin ampirik olarak analiz edilmesidir. Yöntem: Çalışmanın amacı doğrultusunda 2004:1-2016:1 dönemine ilişkin aylık verilerle tüketici güven endeksi ve kredi kartı harcamaları arasındaki ilişki regresyon analiziyle incelenmiştir. Bu kapsamda öncelikle serilerin durağanlıkları hem geleneksel birim kök testleriyle hem de yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi ile analiz edilmiş, sonrasında Granger Nedensellik Testi ile değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi ortaya konulmuştur. Serilerin durağanlıklarının incelenmesinde ADF birim kök testi, Ng-Perron birim kök testi ve Lee-Strazicich bir kırılmalı ve iki kırılmalı LM birim kök testinden faydalanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerinin Granger ne-densellik testi ile belirlenmesinden sonra elde edilen bulgulara göre farklı regresyon modelleri oluşturulmuştur. Oluşturulan modeller En Küçük Kareler (EKK) yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Modellerin tahmini ile ilgili genelden özele yaklaşımı benimsenmiş, öncelikle geniş model tahmin edilerek parametrelerin anlamlılığına göre ve modelle ilgili tanısal testlerin sonuçlarına göre daraltılmıştır. Ayrıca modelin uygun gecikme uzunluğunun belirlenmesinde bilgi kriterl-erinden yararlanılmıştır. Bulgular ve Sonuç: Durağanlık sınamalarında ADF birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre, kredi kartı harcamaları serisinin ikinci dereceden, tüketici güven endeksi seri-sinin ise birinci dereceden durağan olduğu görülmektedir. Ng-Perron birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre ise, kredi kartı harcamaları serisinin düzey değerinde durağan, tüketici güven endeksi seri-sinin ise birinci dereceden durağan olduğu görülmektedir. Kırılmalı birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre de kredi kartı harcamalarına ilişkin serinin iki kırılma altında düzeyde durağan olduğu, tüketici güven endeksine ilişkin serinin ise farkı alındıktan sonra iki kırılma altında durağan hale geldiği bulunmuştur. Dolayısıyla yapısal kırılmalar sebebiyle geleneksel birim kök tes-tleriyle kırılmalı birim kök testi sonuçları arasında farklılıklar olduğu görülmüştür. Bu sebeple kırılmalar altında durağan olan seriler söz konusu kırılmalardan arındırılarak düzeltilmiş seril-erle analize devam edilmiştir. Regresyon analizine geçilmeden yapılan Granger nedensellik tes-tine göre, tüketici güven endeksinden kredi kartı harcamalarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca ilişkinin yönüne bakıldığında bir dönem önceki tüketici güven endeksinde gerçekleşen yukarı yönlü değişim incelenen dönemdeki kredi kartı harcamalarını arttırmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, elde edilen analiz sonucu kredi kartı harcamalarındaki artışın tüketi-ci güvenin bir işareti olduğuna dair genel görüşle örtüşmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Tüketici Güven Endeksi, Kredi Kartı Harcamaları, Türkiye, Regresyon Analizi, Granger Nedensellik Testi

1919

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE OPINIONS OF TEACHER CANDIDATES ON THE INCLUSIVE EDUCATION 1

Zeki ÖZKARTAL1, Ahmet DÖNGER2

1 Akdeniz University, Serik Gülsün Süleyman Süral Vocational School, Antalya / Turkey2 Hakkari University, Faculty of Education, Hakkari / Turkey

ORCID ID: 0000-0001-9392-50341, 0000-0002-1929-063X2

Abstract: Inclusive education is mainstreaming of education and training of students with special needs who require special education with other students. The aim in inclusive education is to provide students, who need special education to socialize, express themselves, integrate educationally and offer equality of opportunity together with students who do not need a special education. The purpose of this study is to explore the opinions of the teacher candidates studying at Faculty of Education about the inclusive education considering some demographic variables. The sample of the study consists of 168 prospective teachers studying at the fourth grade in Mustafa Kemal University Faculty of Education in 2017-2018 academic year. The Cronbach’s Alpha internal reliability coefficient of the Opinions Relative to Inclusive Scale used in this study was computed again by researcher and determined as 0.83. General Survey Model was used in the study. It was found that teacher candidates were sensitive about the inclusive education and especially communication and interaction between the students were important in inclusive education and the knowledge and skills of the classroom teachers about the inclusive education were in sufficient level and there was no statistically significant dif-ference between the male and female teacher candidates according to the results of study. Also, it has been found that disabled students should be given more time and opportunity to be able to express themselves better in the classroom.

Key Words: Inclusive Education, Special Education, Individual Differences, Classroom Teacher

(1) Corresponding Author: Zeki ÖZKARTAL, Akdeniz University, Serik Gülsün Süleyman Süral Vocational School, Antalya / Turkey [email protected] Arrival Date 17.06.2017 Date of Admission: 28.09.2017 Article Type: (Research Application) Conflict of Interest No “Ethics Committee No”

Doi: 10.17364/IIB.2017.3.4


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July – August – September Issue 27 Spring Summer Year: 2017GEL CODE: I23 ID: 540 K: 722

(Education Management)ISSN PRINT: 2146-5886 ISSIN ONLINE: 2147-172X


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INTRODUCTION

Improvements in democracy and human rights have prompted the consideration of individual differences and inclusion of indi-viduals with disabilities or people who need special education (Kuz, 2001). People who need special education can wind up notice-ably profitable and independent people in so-ciety yet just through different trainings that can be given to disabled individuals. Educa-tion of individuals who need special educa-tion is achieved in two ways. These trainings are inclusive education and special education. Inclusive education and special education are two concepts that are interlaced however dif-ferent from each other.

The Ministry of Education Regulation on Special Education Services characterizes the special education in the Decree on the special education numbered 573 as follows; staff

specifically trained to meet the educational and social needs of individuals requiring spe-cial education, improved education programs and methods created as per the individual ca-pabilities of the person who require special education in a domain proper to the develop-ment characteristics of the individual (MEB, 2000). That is, special education is the train-ing of students who need special education in private settings with specially educated staff.

Inclusive instruction refers to special educa-

tion services based on the principle of continu-ance in private and public pre-school, primary education, secondary education and non-for-mal education institutions that provide educa-tion for individuals requiring special educa-tion with individuals who do not have disabil-ities according to article 67 of the Ministry of Education special education services (Special Education Services Regulation Amendment: 31.07.2009/Official Gazette: 27305). For this case, inclusive instruction is defined as train-ing of students in general education classes with providing support and special education services for students (Kırcaali-İftar, 1992). It is planned to be carried out with education support given to the individuals, the students who need special education and who should be educated in the same school and and the same class together with the other brothers in the family and peers and they should be inte-grated in this way (York & Tundidor, 1995).

The primary systematic structuring of spe-cial education dates back to the 16th century. Schooling began in the field of special edu-cation for the first time in the 17th and 18th centuries and since that date special education has continued to expand. Particularly since the first half of the twentieth century, school-ing and studies in the field of a special educa-tion has increased. Nonetheless, in these years education was carried out in various settings, because it has been thought that students who require special education would be harmful to

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their school and their classmates in that they would distract and lead to loss of time and disruption of school discipline and progress (Gearheart, Weishahn & Gearheart, 1996). All students with physical handicaps who are studying in normal schools in the United States in 1913 have begun their training in schools that have been particularly opened for them (Lewis & Doorlag, 1999). In these years, various criticisms of the current educa-tion system have been made, to some degree, on the execution of inclusive education, and in a few schools in the UK outwardly sight-disabled students have started to study in normal schools (Kargın, 2004). Nonetheless, inclusive practices started to become wide-spread and implemented after the 1960s and have been included in the education system or curriculum of many countries, especially Italy, England, Sweden and the United States since the 1970’s (OECD, 1995). Inclusive ed-ucation is yet implemented in these countries in the same way.

In our country, special education implementa-tions depend on the precedence of the Repub-lic. In the Ottoman Empire, instruction was given to the gifted students in the Enderun schools (Akçamate & Kaner, 1999). In 1889, different schools for sight-disabled and deaf students were opened in Istanbul, yet these schools were closed again in 1912 and the in-stitute of deaf and blinds was opened in Izmir in 1921 and trainings proceeded until 1950

(Sucuoğlu & Kargın, 2006). In the Republi-can period, special education situated studies began after the 1950s and in those years spe-cial classes for students with intellectual dis-abilities were opened in two primary schools in Ankara. In 1952, a department on special education teacher education was opened in Gazi University. After two graduations, the department was closed again and another Psychological Service Unit was opened in Ankara in the same year (Sucuoğlu & Kargın, 2006). In 1965, a department to train spe-cial education staff was opened in Ankara University. Until the 1980s any department was not set up to educate special education teachers at universities other than Ankara University. From this date, new departments related special educations were opened in Es-kisehir University and Gazi University and certificates were begun to be given (Çağlar, 1990). Studies began to take place after the 1990s about inclusive education. In 1991, the Special Education Council was gathered, to expand inclusive education. The concept of inclusive was included in a law in 1997and it was begun to be applied in schools since that date (Sucuoğlu & Kargın, 2006). How-ever, in the 2000s, a regulation on how inclu-sive education should take place has started to be practised and it has been clearly defined how to carry out the education (Özgür, 2015). Since inclusive education is new in our coun-try contrasted with different countries, there

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are yet different issues emerging from educa-tional program, practices or lack of staff.

Combining students who need special edu-cation with classroom climate or classroom behavior is a challenging process (Walker & Lamon, 1987). Meeting the needs of special needs students differing from normal stu-dents, ensuring to interact healthy with the classroom, and provide them not to alienated by the society in future is largely due to the fact that the teacher provides successful in-clusive education (Bal & Avcı, 1999).

The achievement of inclusive education de-pends particularly on teachers’ class skills, their metacognitive capacities, and their ex-perience, knowledge and attitude about spe-cial education. The greater part of teachers in our country are not able to carry out the inclu-sive education because they are not educated about special education, and also because the classes are crowded, and they cannot find support from others about materials related to special education (Çankaya & Korkmaz, 2012).

Also, inspectors in our country expressed that inclusive education was not at the desired level and that this was caused by the lack of material, knowledge, self-confidence and at-titude (Gözün & Yıkmış, 2004). Similarly, teachers in kindergartens have likewise de-fined inclusive education in their classrooms as unsuccessful, and it has been observed that

teachers are challenged in certain activities related to inclusive education and failures despite participation of students (Karamanlı, 1998; Yavuz, 2005). Furthermore, it has been resolved that the failures identified with in-clusive education and attitudes towards in-clusive education can be eliminated or en-hanced by different trainings that can be given to teachers (Brown, Bergen, House, Hitle & Dickerson, 2000; Karamanlı, 1998; Yavuz, 2005). Consequently, giving informa-tion about special education to teacher candi-dates in education faculty will enable them to tackle issues that they may experience about future inclusive education.

Another reason behind the failures of teach-ers is related with their attitudes. Attitude is disposition that an individual is ascribed to and that is a consistent way of feeling, think-ing and behaving related a psychological object (Kağıtçıbaşı, 1999). There is also im-pact of the attitudes of the school staff on the change in the quality and quantity of educa-tion to be given to these students in the inclu-sive of the disabled people. Nevertheless, it is seen that society and teachers have nega-tive and stereotypical dispositions towards students with disabilities. Notwithstanding, it is additionally considered that the attitudes towards inclusive can change with education (Diken & Sucuoğlu, 1999). It is conceivable that teacher candidates studied in education faculties will encounter students who need in-

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clusive education in their future lives. Thus, all the teacher candidates studying in the edu-cation faculties should be given the necessary courses in order to develop a positive attitude towards the disabled students.

METHOD

Problem Statement

At what level are the opinions of teacher can-didates who are studying at the Faculty of Ed-ucation about the inclusive education towards the students with disabilities?

Purpose of the Study

The purpose of this study is to try to deter-mine the opinions of teacher candidates studying at the Faculty of Education about the inclusive education towards the students with disabilities by considering the arithmetic mean of the responses given to the scales and demographic variables such as gender and the department.

Population and Sample

The population of study consists of all of the students studying at the departments attached to Mustafa Kemal University Faculty of Ed-ucation and sample consists of 168 students studying at Mustafa Kemal University Faculty of Education in departments of Turkish Lan-guage Teaching, Painting Teacher Education, Science Teacher Education and Computer and Instructional Technology Education.

Research Model

The purpose of his study to try to determine the opinions of teacher candidates studying at the Faculty of Education about the inclusive education towards the students with disabili-ties by considering the arithmetic mean of the responses given to the scales and demo-graphic variables such as gender and depart-ment. For this purpose, Opinions Relative to Inclusive Scale developed by Antonak & Larivee (1995) was used in the study.

Attitudes toward Inclusive Education Scale created by Antonak and Larivee (1995) uti-lized in study, has been developed to deter-mine the attitudes of teachers towards students with disabilities in any class affiliated to the state. The adaptation of scale to Turkish was completed by Kırcaali-Iftar (1996). Opinions Relative to Inclusive Scale is composed of 20 items and 5 sub-dimensions. 3., 13., 12., 14., 18. and 19th items of scale are related with classroom management in inclusive; 9., 15. and 17th items of scale related with efficacy of classroom teacher; 2., 3., 13., 16., 20th items of the scale related with Benefits of Inclusive education; 1. and 6th items of scale is related with Efficacy of Disabled Student and 10 and 11th related with Negative Effect of Inclusive Education.

The items used in the scale rated as 1 (Total-ly agree), 2 (Agree), 3 (Undecided), 4 (Dis-agree) and 5 (Totally Disagree)as a part of the

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scale are evaluated as 1 (All Participate), 2 (Participate), 3 (Undecided), 4 (Disagree) and 5 (Absolutely Disagree) in the 5-likert type. The scores of ten negative items in the scale are calculated reversely. As the scores given to the attitudes increment, the student atti-tudes become negative, yet since the scores reversed, the attitudes end up noticeably neg-ative as the score decreases as a result of the analysis of scale items. The answers given to the scale items of the students participating in the study based on the demographic variables were calculated by using the F test, t-test and ANOVA with one-way analysis of variance with SPSS 20 statistical package program. The Cronbach Alpha internal consistency coefficient which is the coefficient of valid-ity and reliability of the scale, was calculated and was determined as 0.83 by the researcher. The option range of the scale items used in the research and the general evaluation were determined as follows (Sarıgöz & Özdinç, 2014; Sarıgöz, 2015-2016-2017):

SA: Option Range

EYD: Highest Value

EDD: Lowest Value

SS: Number of Options

1.00 - 1.80: I totally agree

1.81 - 2.60: I agree

2.61 - 3.40: Undecided

3.41 - 4.20: I disagree

4.21 - 5.00: Totally disagree

The general survey model which is one of the descriptive scanning methods is utilized in the study. The general survey model involves in arrangements on a sample group in a larger population with many populations in order to conclude about that population (Karasar, 2010: 79). The general survey model is a re-search model used to determine data types such as people’s attitudes, beliefs, values, habits, and thoughts (Mcmillan & Schum-acher, 2001).

FINDINGS

In this section, views and comments of pro-spective teachers studying at the Faculty of Education towards inclusive education for students with disabilities are included. For the purpose of the study, Opinions Relative to Inclusive Scale was applied to the teach-er candidates and the answers given by the teacher candidates to the scales were tabu-lated and interpreted.

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Table 1. Results of t-Test Analysis of the Answers Given by the Prospective Teachers Who Studying in the Faculty of Education to Opinions Relative to Inclusive Scale Ac-

cording to the Gender Variable

Gender N x Ss Sd t p

1.Female 110 80.67 5.892 166 .470 .639

2.Male 58 81.14 6.487

p>0.05

As the data in Table 1 are examined, it has been determined that there is no significant difference between the opinions of the female and male teacher candidates studying in the Faculty of Education about the inclusive edu-cation for the students with disabilities as a

result of statistical analyses (p>.05). Accord-ing to the results of the analysis, it can be said that the views of the female teacher candi-dates and the male teacher candidates study-ing in the faculty of education are equal or close to each other with respect to inclusive education towards the disabled students.

Table 2. Anova Test Analysis Results of the Answers Given by the Prospective Teachers Studying at the Faculty of Education on the Opinions Relative To Inclusive Scale Ac-

cording to the Type of Department Variable

Department N x Ss Vr. Ky. Kar.Top.

Sd Kr.Or.

F p Sign.Differ.(Anova)

1)Turkish 59 80.17 6.51 Wth gr 100.02 3 33.338 .898 .444

2)Painting 22 80.68 5.73 Btw gr 6091.32 164 37.142

3)Science 60 81.03 5.99 Total 6191.34 167

4)CEIT 27 82.30 5.63

Total 168 80.83 6.09

p> 0.05

As the data in Table 2 is examined, according to statistical analyses, there is no significant difference between the teacher candidates studying in different departments affiliated to

faculty of education; in Turkish Teacher Edu-cation, Painting Education, Science Teacher Education and Computer and Instructional Technology Education. In light of the results of the study, it can be said that the opinions of teacher candidates studying in various depart-

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ments of faculty of education are equivalent or close to each other about the inclusive edu-

cation toward the students with disabilities.

Table 3. The Arithmetic Mean and Skill Levels of the Answers Given by the Prospective Teachers Who Studying in the Faculty of Education to Opinions Relative to Inclusive

Scale

Opinions Relative To Inclusive Scale x Skill Level

7. Integrating students with disabilities requires significant changes in the normal classroom order.

4.44 Totally Disagree

2. The integration of disabled students requires intensive training of classroom teachers who will be involved in inclusive practices


1. Most of the disabled students execute sufficient effort to do their homework 4.25 Totally Disagree

3. The social interaction provided by the inclusive facilitates the understanding and acceptance of the differences between the students


13. Integration of the disabled student is useful in terms of normal students in the class 4.20 Disagree

20. Disabled students are not abstracted from other students in normal class 4.18 Disagree

14. Disabled student may lead to confusion in the normal class 4.17 Disagree

17. In-class behavior of the disabled student does not require the teacher to show more patience than other students show

4.17 Disagree

4. The disabled student is more likely to show behavior problems in normal class 4.16 Disagree

12. It is not difficult to provide control in a class with an inclusive student, even if the class is without an inclusive student.

4.11 Disagree

8. Comfort in the normal class leads to experience disorder of the disabled student. 4.08 Disagree

9. Normal class teachers are capable of working with disabled students 4.05 Disagree

19. Separate education in private classes is beneficial for the social and emotional development of the disabled student

3.95 Disagree

6. The challenging conditions caused by existing in the normal class accelerate the academic development of the disabled student.

3.91 Disagree

5. Special attention to disabled student in the normal class leads to anxiety among other students

3.86 Agree

11. The integration of the disabled student does not contribute to independence 3.83 Disagree

16. Students with disabilities should be given every opportunity to participate in all activities in normal class.

3.84 Disagree

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15. Normal class teachers have sufficient knowledge and skill about the education of the disabled students

3.82 Disagree

10. The presence of a disabled student in the class does not contribute to normal students’ acceptance of differences between students

3.80 Disagree

18. The person who will actualize the education of the disabled students best is the special education teacher.

3.48 Disagree

General arithmetic mean: 4.04 (Disagree)

In table 3, the arithmetic mean and skill lev-els of the answers given by the prospective teachers studying in the Faculty of Education to the Opinions Relative to Inclusive Scale were calculated. In the arithmetic mean of students’ answers to the Opinions Relative to Inclusive Scale, it is found that the 7th item “Inclusion students with disabilities requires significant changes in the normal classroom order” ( x =4.44), 2nd item “The integra-tion of disabled students requires intensive training of classroom teachers who will be involved in inclusive practices” ( x =4.33), 1st item “Most of the disabled students exe-cute sufficient effort to do their homework” ( x =4.25) and 3rd item “The social interac-tion provided by the inclusive facilitates the understanding and acceptance of the differ-ences between the students” ( x =4.21) are determined as items has highest arithmetic means in scale.

It can be said that there is no requirement for teachers to change the classroom for disabled students and teachers do not need intense education for training disabled students, dis-

abled students also will do their homework devotedly, interaction and communication of disabled with the other students will increase according to arithmetic averages of answers given by teacher candidates to scale.

Again from table 3, according to the arithme-tic mean of the answers given by the prospec-tive teachers who studying in the Faculty of Education to the Opinions Relative to Inclu-sive Scale, it can be said that item 18 “The person who will actualize the education of the disabled students best is the special educa-tion teacher.” ( x =4.44), item 10 “The pres-ence of a disabled student in the class does not contribute to normal students’ acceptance of differences between students” ( x =4.33), item 15 “Normal class teachers have suffi-cient knowledge and skill about the education of the disabled students” ( x =4.25) and item 16 “Students with disabilities should be given every opportunity to participate in all activi-ties in normal class” ( x =4.21) are the items which have lowest arithmetic means in scale.

On the premise of the responses given to the scale items, it can be said that education of teacher candidates should be given only by

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the special education teachers, the other stu-dents who meet disabled students will consid-er differences, and duties should be given in every activity for disabled students by teach-ers according to arithmetic averages of the answers.

CONCLUSION

Results

It has been determined that there is no signifi-cant difference between the opinions of the fe-male and male teacher candidates studying in the Faculty of Education about the inclusive education for the students with disabilities as a result of statistical analyses. According to the results of the analysis, it can be said that the views of the female teacher candidates and the male teacher candidates studying in the faculty of education are equal or close to each other with respect to inclusive education towards the disabled students.

It has been determined that here is no sig-nificant difference between the teacher can-didates studying in different departments af-filiated to faculty of education; in Turkish Teacher Education, Painting Education, Sci-ence Teacher Education and Computer and Instructional Technology Education. In light of the results of the study, it can be said that the opinions of teacher candidates studying in various departments of faculty of education are equivalent or close to each other about the

inclusive education toward the students with disabilities.

It can be said that there is no requirement for teachers to change the classroom for disabled students and teachers do not need intense education for training disabled students, dis-abled students also will do their homework devotedly, interaction and communication of disabled with the other students will increase according to scale items which have highest arithmetic means of answers given by teacher candidates to scale.

It can be said that inclusive education of teacher candidates should be given only by the special education teachers, the other stu-dents who meet disabled students will con-sider differences, teachers had information about educating disabled students, teacher candidates had high positive attitudes in is-sues such as assigning tasks in every activ-ity for disabled students according to low-est arithmetic means of the answers in scale items used in study.

The general arithmetic mean of the scale from the responses given by teacher candidates to the scale items is 4.04 which indicate skill level of ‘disagree’. However, it was expected that the arithmetic average of answers of the teacher candidates to the scale items would correspond to the 4.21 to 5.00 and totally dis-agree with the skill level. Prospective teach-ers should be able to think more sensitively

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or express more precise ideas about inclusive education based on the acquired skill level.

Recommendations

Prospective teachers studying in the faculty of education should be educated by special courses about special education on the other hand, the level of knowledge of the teacher candidates should be increased a little more and candidates should be more precise about the inclusive education through practical courses.

Courses are taught in universities for teach-ers practically and candidates are only trained in the final year and in selected institutional schools. Therefore, candidates who do not practise internships in the schools most of-ten need special education. For this reason, the candidates should be sent to the intern-ships from the third year rather than the last year and sent to the rehabilitation centers for at least one term so that they should be more informed and made more conscious about the characteristics of the children who need spe-cial education.

All teachers who are right now on occupation and teaching should be informed about in-service training as well as symposiums, semi-nars and congresses to be held about students with special needs and inclusive education and teachers should be made more sensitive in this issue.

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ÖĞRETMEN ADAYLARININ KAYNAŞTIRMA EĞİTİMİNE İLİŞKİN GÖRÜŞLERİNİN İNCELENMESİ

Öz: Giriş: Günümüzde demokrasi ve insan haklarında meydana gelen gelişmeler bireysel fark-lılıkların göz önüne alınmasına ve engelli bireylerin veya özel eğitime ihtiyaç duyan bireylerin topluma dahil edilmesine sebep olmuştur. Özel eğitime ihtiyaç duyan bireylerin toplum içeri-sinde üretken ve kendi kendilerine yetebilen bireyler haline gelmesi ancak engelli bireylere verilebilecek çeşitli eğitimler sayesinde olabilir. Özel eğitime ihtiyaç duyan bireylerin eğitim-leri genellikle iki şekilde yapılmaktadır. Bu eğitimler kaynaştırma eğitimi ve özel eğitimdir. Özel eğitim ve kaynaştırma eğitimi birbiriyle iç içe girmiş ancak birbirlerinden farklı iki kav-ramdır. Özel eğitimin ilk defa sistemli bir şekilde yapılanması 16. yüzyıla dayanmaktadır. 17. ve 18. yüzyıllarda ilk defa özel eğitim alanında okullaşmaya başlanılmış ve bu tarihten itibaren özel eğitim artarak devam etmiştir. Özellikle 20. yüzyılın ilk yarısından itibaren özel eğitim alanındaki okullaşmalar ve çalışmalar giderek artmıştır. Ancak bu yıllarda özel eğitime ihtiyaç duyan öğrencilerin normal okullarda eğitim görmelerinin kendilerine ve sınıf arkadaşlarına za-rar vereceği ve bu öğrencilerin öğretmenlerinin dikkatlerini dağıttığı ve zaman kaybına neden olacağı, okul disiplinini ve ilerlemeyi engelleyeceği düşünüldüğünden eğitimleri farklı ortam-larda yapılmaktaydı. 1913 yılında ABD bulunan normal okullarda eğitim gören fiziksel engelli tüm öğrenciler eğitimlerini kendileri için özel olarak açılan okullarda yapmaya başlamışlardır. Bu yıllarda kısmen de olsa gerek kaynaştırma uygulamalarının yapılması hakkında gerekse de mevcut eğitim sistemine yönelik çeşitli eleştiriler yapılmış ayrıca İngiltere’deki bazı okullarda görme engelli öğrenciler genel okullarda eğitim görmeye başlamışlardır. Ancak kaynaştırma uygulamaları 1960’lı yıllardan sonra yaygınlaşmaya ve uygulanmaya başlanmış ve özellikle 1970’lerden sonra İtalya, İngiltere, İsveç ve ABD gibi birçok ülkenin eğitim sisteminde veya öğretim programlarında yer almıştır. Bu tarihlerden itibaren kaynaştırma eğitimi bu ülkelerde hala aynı şekilde uygulanmaktadır. Ülkemizde ise özel eğitim uygulamaları Cumhuriyetten daha öncelere dayanmaktadır. Osmanlılarda Enderun mekteplerinde üstün zekalı öğrencilere eğitim verilmekteydi. 1889 tarihlerinde İstanbul’da görme ve işitme engellilere yönelik çeşitli okullar açılmış ancak bu okullar 1912 yılında tekrar kapatılmış daha sonra 1921 yılında İzmir’de sağırlar ve körler Müessesesi açılmış ve bu okuldaeğitimler1950 yılına kadar devam etmiştir. Cumhuriyet döneminde ise özel eğitime yönelik çalışmalar 1950’li yılardan sonra başlamış ve o dönemde Ankara’da iki ilkokulda zihinsel engelli öğrenciler için özel sınıflar açılmıştır. 1952

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yılında Gazi Üniversitesinde özel eğitim öğretmenliği ile ilgili bir bölüm açılmış iki dönem mezun verdikten sonra bölüm tekrar kapatılmıştır, aynı yıllarda Ankara’da yine bir Psikolojik Servis Birimi açılmıştır. 1965 yıllında ise Ankara Üniversitesinde özel eğitim personeli yetiştir-mek amacıyla bir bölüm kurulmuştur. 1980’li yıllara kadar Ankara Üniversitesi dışında başka bir üniversitede özel eğitim öğretmeni yetiştirecek bir bölüm kurulmamıştır. Bu tarihten itiba-ren Eskişehir Üniversitesi ve Gazi Üniversitesinde özel eğitim ile ilgili yeni bölümler açılmış ve bu alanda sertifikalar verilmeye başlanılmıştır. Kaynaştırma eğitimi ile ilgili ise ancak 1990’lı yıllardan sonra çalışmalar yapılmaya başlanmıştır. 1991 yılında Özel Eğitim Konseyi toplanmış ve kaynaştırma eğitiminin yaygınlaştırılması kararı alınmıştır. 1997 yılında bir ka-nunla kaynaştırma kavramına yer verilmiş ve bu tarihten itibaren okullarda uygulanmaya baş-lanılmıştır. Ancak 2000’li yıllarda kaynaştırma eğitiminin nasıl olması gerektiği konusunda bir yönetmelik yürürlüğe girmiş ve eğitimlerin nasıl yapılacağı açıkça tanımlanmaya başlanmıştır. Kaynaştırma eğitiminin ülkemizde diğer ülkelere göre çok yeni olmasından, öğretim program-larından, uygulamalardan veya personel eksikliğinden kaynaklı olarak hala çeşitli sorunlar or-taya çıkmaktadır. Özel eğitime ihtiyaç duyan öğrencilerin sınıf iklimine veya sınıf davranışları-na kaynaştırılması oldukça zor bir süreçtir. Özel eğitime ihtiyaç duyan öğrencilerin normal öğrencilerden farklılık gösteren ihtiyaçlarının karşılanması, sınıfla sağlıklı etkileşim kurması ve gelecekte öğrencinin toplum tarafından dışlanmaması çoğunlukla ve büyük ölçüde öğretmenin başarılı kaynaştırma eğitimi vermesine bağlıdır. Kaynaştırma eğitiminin başarılı olması özellik-le öğretmenlerin sınıf becerisine, üst bilişsel yeteneklerine, özel eğitim hakkındaki bilgisine, tecrübesine ve tutumuna bağlıdır. Ülkemizde kaynaştırma eğitimi veren öğretmenlerin çoğun-luğu özel eğitim ile ilgili eğitim almadıkları, sınıfların kalabalık olması ve özel eğitim ile ilgili materyallerin ve dışarıdan alınabilecek destek bulamadıklarından kaynaştırma eğitimini isteni-len düzeyde yapamamaktadırlar. Ayrıca ülkemizdeki müfettişler okullarda kaynaştırma eğitimi-nin istenilen düzeyde olmadığını bunun sebebinin de materyal, bilgi, özgüven ve tutum eksik-liğinden kaynaklandığını belirtmişlerdir. Benzer şekilde anaokullarında eğitim veren öğretmen-ler de sınıflarda uyguladıkları kaynaştırma eğitimlerini genellikle başarısız olarak tanımlamışlar ve öğretmenlerin kaynaştırma ile ilgili belirli etkinliklerde zorlandıkları ve öğrencilerin katılı-mına rağmen başarısızlık oldukları gözlenmiştir. Ayrıca yapılan araştırmalarda kaynaştırma eğitimi ile ilgili yaşanan başarısızlıkların ve kaynaştırma eğitimine yönelik tutumların öğret-menlere verilebilecek çeşitli eğitimler ile giderilebileceği veya geliştirebileceği belirlenmiştir. Dolayısıyla özel eğitim ile ilgili bilgilerin öğretmen adaylarına eğitim fakültelerinde verilmesi adayların ileride kaynaştırma eğitimi ile ilgili karşılaşabilecekleri sorunları çözmede onlara

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yardımcı olacaktır. Öğretmenlerin kaynaştırma eğitiminde başarısız olmalarının bir diğer nede-ni de tutumlarından kaynaklanmaktadır. Tutum, bir bireye atfedilen ve onun bir psikolojik obje ile ilgili düşünce, duygu ve davranışların düzenli bir biçimde oluşturduğu eğilimdir. Engelli bireylerin topluma kaynaştırılmasında bu öğrencilere verilecek eğitimin niteliği ve niceliğinde-ki değişiminde okul personelinin tutumlarının da etkisi vardır. Bununla birlikte genel olarak toplumun ve öğretmenlerin engelli öğrencilere yönelik olumsuz ve kalıplaşmış tutumlara sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Ancak kaynaştırmaya yönelik tutumun eğitimle değişebileceği de düşü-nülmektedir. Tüm eğitim fakültelerinde eğitim alan öğretmen adaylarının gelecek yaşamlarında kaynaştırma eğitimine ihtiyacı olan öğrenciler ile karşılaşması muhtemel bir durumdur. Bundan dolayı eğitim fakültelerinde okuyan tüm öğretmen adaylarına engelli öğrencilere karşı olumlu yönde bir tutum geliştirebilmeleri için fakültede gerekli dersler verilmelidir. Bu araştırmanın amacı; Eğitim Fakültesinde okuyan öğretmen adaylarının engelli öğrencilere yönelik kaynaştır-ma eğitimleri hakkındaki görüşlerini ölçek maddelerine verilen yanıtların aritmetik ortalamala-rı, cinsiyet ve öğrenim görülen bölüm demografik değişkenlerini de göz önünde bulundurarak belirlemeye çalışmaktır. Araştırmanın örneklemini Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi Eğitim Fakül-tesine bağlı Türkçe Öğretmenliği, Resim Öğretmenliği, Fen Bilgisi Öğretmenliği ve Bilgisayar ve Öğretim Teknolojileri Öğretmenliğinde okuyan toplam 168 öğrenci oluşturmaktadır. Araştır-mada betimsel tarama yöntemlerinden birisi olan genel tarama modeli kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonuçlarında, öğretmen adaylarının kaynaştırma eğitimi konusunda hassas oldukları, kaynaştır-ma eğitiminde özellikle öğrenciler arasındaki iletişim ve etkileşimin önemli olduğu, sınıf öğret-menlerinin kaynaştırma eğitimine yönelik bilgi ve becerilerinin yeterli seviyede olduğu, bayan öğretmen adayları ile erkek öğretmen adayları arasında kaynaştırma eğitimi bakımından istatis-tiksel olarak anlamlı düzeyde bir görüş farkının olmadığı ve kaynaştırma eğitiminde engelli öğrencilere sınıf içerisinde kendilerini daha iyi ifade edebilmeleri için daha fazla zaman ve fırsat verilmesi gerektiği gibi sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Kaynaştırma Eğitimi, Özel Eğitim, Bireysel Farklılık, Sınıf Öğretmeni

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AN EMPIRICAL STUDY EXAMINING DETERMINANTS OF FIRST HAND MORTGAGED HOUSE SALES IN TURKEY 1

Umut AKDUĞAN1, Gökhan SÖNMEZLER2, İsmail Orçun GÜNDÜZ3, Berk KÜÇÜKALTAN4

1Trakya University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Public Finance Department, Edirne / Turkey

2-3-4 Trakya University, School of Applied Sciences, Banking Department, Edirne / Turkey

ORCID ID: 0000-0001-8659-541X1, 0000-0002-4301-60082, 0000-0002-8754-29153, 0000-0002-2766-32484

Abstract: In this study, factors affecting the first hand mortgaged house sales are aimed to be determined by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing and monthly time-series with reference to the 2013-2016-time-period. The number of first hand mortgaged house sales is included in the model as the dependent variable while consumer confidence index, house price index, weighted average interest rates applied to house loans that are determined by banks, and exchange rate series are identified as explanatory variables. The findings show that a long-term relationship exists between the variables. In this respect, long-term estimated results of the ARDL model revealed that there is a significant and positive influence of both consumer confidence index and house price index on first hand mortgaged house sales whereas interest rate and exchange rate variables influence the dependent variable significantly but negatively. Furthermore, estimated ECM results point out that deviations that may occur in the short-term converge to the long-term balance.

Key Words: Housing Sector, First Hand Mortgaged House Sales, Turkey, Cointegration, ARDL

(1) Corresponding Author: İsmail Orçun GÜNDÜZ, Trakya University, School of Applied Sciences, Banking Depart-ment, Edirne / Turkey [email protected] Arrival Date 13.05.2017 Date of Admission: 19.09.2017 Article Type: (Research Application) Conflict of Interest No “Ethics Committee No”

Doi: 10.17364/IIB.2017.3.1


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INTERNATIONAL REFEREED ACADEMIC SOCIAL SCIENCES JOURNALwww.iibdergisi.com

July – August – September Issue 27 Spring Summer Year: 2017GEL CODE: C01-C22-D10-E00-R20-R31 ID: 539 K: 383



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INTRODUCTION

According to the official data from Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI) statistics, the con-struction industry has 8.2% share in GDP. In addition to its magnitude in the economy, its contribution to employment and relation-ship with the other industries indicate the sig-nificance of the construction industry for the Turkish economy.

The housing sector has the largest share in the construction sector. House sales have in-creased dramatically especially after 2012; however, after the second half of 2016, it fol-lowed a moderate increase path. In order to revive the construction industry, the mortgage interest rates were reduced by banks, although several supports, such as reducing the down payments, extending the payment dues, and providing some benefits regarding tax pay-ments were made. The main goal here was to increase the first hand new house sales and affect the acceleration of destocking in new houses because the level of sales in first hand house affects not only destocking, but also the persistency of dynamism in the construction industry.

According to the TSI data in 2016, the per-cent of first hand house sales in total house sales is approximately 47%, whereas the per-cent of first hand mortgaged house sales in total house sales is around 15%. When the relatively low share of first hand mortgaged

house in sales is considered, its increase will leverage the total first hand house sales. Thus, the factors affecting the first hand mortgaged house sales become very crucial. In this study, the factors affecting the first hand mortgaged house sales will be analyzed by using ARDL bound testing for the time-period between 2013 and 2016. The following explanatory variables will be used as determinants of first hand mortgaged house sales: Consumer con-fidence index, house price index, weighted mean interest rates determined by banks that applied to mortgages, and the exchange rate. In this regard, long-term and short-term rela-tionships between variables will be examined and the findings will be discussed in this pa-per.

LITERATURE REVIEW

In general, applied studies in the literature emphasize factors that affect house demand whose determinants have been examined within the frameworks of different explana-tory variables. For example, the literature in-cludes numerous studies on the effects of in-terest rates on house demands. Some of these are summarized below.

Uysal and Yigit (2016:185) analyzed the de-terminants of house demand between 1968 and 2006 in Turkey, and found out that there existed positive correlations between house demand and interest rates and inflation rates; however, the relationship between house de-

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mand and money supply was negative. In their study, Akkas and Sayilgan (2015:367) revealed that increase in mortgage inter-est rates caused decrease in house demand and delayed decrease in house prices for the 2010-2015 time-period in Turkey. Likewise, Bekmez and Özpolat (2013:170) examined the role of macro variables on house demand for 1986-2009 time-periods. This study re-vealed that correlations between per capita income, unemployment rates, inflation rates, and house demand were positive, whereas correlations between interest rates, stock ex-change index and house demand were nega-tive. In their study, Yi and Zeng (2007:143) found that decrease in interest rates caused increase in house demand for investment pur-poses. Painter and Redfearn (2002:243) in-dicated that effect of interest rates on house demand was low in the short term, but was almost non-exist in the long term.

On the other hand, literature includes studies that attempted to determine price flexibility of house demand. Some of these studies re-vealed that price flexibility of house demand was positive (Carliner, 1973:528; Hausman and Wise, 1980:75) although some of them indicated that the price flexibility of house de-mand was negative (Rosen, 1979:1; Hanush-ek and Quigley, 1980:449; Elder and Zumpa-no, 1991:341; Ermisch et al., 1996:64; Tiwari et al., 1999:10783). As a result of a section analysis completed using survey data, Maisel

et al., (1971:410) found that prices negatively impact house demand. In studies that focus on price flexibility of house demand in Tur-key, Durkaya and Yamak (2004:75) found that price flexibility of house demand for 1964-1997 time-period ranged between -0,1 and 0,03. Similarly, Halicioglu (2007:62) de-termined price flexibility of house demand for 1964-2004-time-period as -0,2. Lebe and Yigit (2009:62) calculated price flexibility of house demand in Turkey as -0, 056.

The literature also includes studies examin-ing both interest rates and house prices as fac-tors affecting house demand. Lebe and Akbas (2014:57) conducted a study that covers 1970-2011 time-period, and found that both inter-est rates and house prices negatively affected house demand. Özturk and Fitoz (2009:21) examined determinants of house demand and house supply for 1968-2006 time-period, and concluded a positive relationship between house demand and house price and interest rates that are indeed explanatory variables of house demand.

MODEL and DATA

The function designed to determine the fac-tors affecting mortgaged house sale rates in Turkey is presented below:

Definitions of the terms in this function are as follows:

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H: Total number of mortgaged house sales,

CCI: Consumer confidence index,

HPI: House price index,

i: Weighted mean interest rates determined by banks that offer mortgage,

e: Exchange rate.

In the model, logarithmic variables were used and the estimated model then becomes

In this study, analyses were made by using monthly time sequences between 2013 and 2016 for each variable. The monthly time se-quences used for Turkey were retrieved from the webpages of TSI and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Regarding the methodological framework of this study, or-der of stationarity was calculated by using unit root tests for each variable. Afterwards, long-term relationships between variables were examined through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing ap-proach. Finally, long-term dynamics were ex-amined by using the established ARDL mod-el, and error correction model was estimated for the short-term analysis. The methods used in this study are summarized in the following section.

METHODS and FINDINGS

Under the methodological framework of the study, bound testing based on ARDL method was used to determine long-term relation-ships and short-tern dynamics between first hand mortgaged house sales (LH), consumer

confidence index (LCCI), house price index (LHPI), interest rate (Li), and exchange rate (Le) as determinants of first hand mortgaged house sales. In this method which was de-veloped by Pesaran and Pesaran (1997), and Peseran, Shin, and Smith (2001), there is no need to have series which have the same lev-el order of stationary. Another advantage of the ARDL bound testing approach when it is compared to similar methods like Johansen and Engle-Granger approaces is to use un-restricted error correction model, which pro-vides better statistical features and reliable results when working with small samples (Narayan and Narayan, 2005:429). Equa-tion 3 was estimated before studying the long-term relationships through two-phased ARDL bound testing approach. In the first phase of this approach, cointegration be-tween variables is examined with the help of bound testing, and in case of a cointegration between variables, long-term and short-term parameters are estimated in the second phase. Estimated unrestricted error correction model adopted for this study is as follows:

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In equation 3, “ ” indicates difference opera-tor. In this model, , , and in-dicate short-term relations, whereas , , and indicate long-term relations between series. In bound testing approach, relationships between variables are estimated through LSM method based on F-test. When null hypothesis that indicates there is no coin-tegration between variables, as a result of standard F-Test is adopted to Equation 3, new null hypothesis becomes as follows:

When calculated F-test statistics are com-pared to critical values, if calculated value is above the upper bound of the critical value then null hypothesis, which indicated there is no cointegration between variables are reject-ed; whereas if calculated value is below the lower bound of the critical value then the null hypothesis is accepted. On the other hand, in selection of delay lengths, there is a sensitive balance between selecting large delay lengths and parameters of restricted error correc-tion model to minimize the autocorrelation problem (Narayan, 2005:1206). In this study, maximum delay length was chosen as 2 based on Schwarz Information Criteria (SIC) as suggested by Narayan and Smyth (2003) and

Narayan (2005) because of relatively small sample of the study.

As emphasized before, there is no condition to have same order of stationarity in ARDL method. However, Pesaran et al., (2001) sug-gested examination of order of stationarity of series in advance because of critical values determined depending on zero order of sta-tionarity (I(0)), and first difference stationar-ity (I(1)). In this regard, first, order of station-arities of the series is examined in this study. Series are accepted as stationary if there are no systematic changes in mean and variance, or there are no systematic fluctuations in se-ries throughout the examined period. As a re-sult, in the situation that the mean value and variance of a stochastic Yt process is stable throughout time, and the covariance of this process is independent from the past, the pro-cess is assumed to be stationary (Granger and Newbold, 1977:257). In order to determine the stationarity of the series, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Ng-Perron, unit root tests are used in this study, and the results are shown in Table 1.

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Table 1. Unit Root Test Results

LH LCCI LHPI Li Le

ADF

Level -3,74*** (0)

-2,57 (0) -1,74 (1) -2,71 (1) -2,26 (0)

1. Difference - -6,38*** (2) -3,71*** (0)

-3,29*** (0)

-4,73*** (0)

PP

Level -3,73*** (2)

-2,54 (13) -1,37 (3) -1,61 (2) -2,37 (3)

1. Difference - -8,23*** (22)

-3,69*** (1)

-3,00** (10)

-4,65*** (3)

N g -Perron

Level

-18,44*** -6,46* -5,36 -7,61 -9,35

-2,94*** -1,75* -1,51 -1,81 -2,15

0,16*** 0,27* 0,28 0,24 0,23

1,64*** 3,92* 16,6 12,28 9,76

1. Difference

- - -16,89*** -11,17** -16,58***

- - -2,82*** -2,34** -2,76***

- - 0,16*** 0,21** 0,16***

- - 1,74*** 2,26** 1,90***

Note: In ADF unit root test, optimum delay lengths were determined based on Schwarz Information Criteria (SIC) by choosing maximum delay length 9. In PP unit root test, optimum delays were automatically calculated based on Newey-West estimator, and critical value enclosed in MacKinnon (1996) was considered. For the Ng-Perron unit root test, unit root delay lengths were calculated through formula, and 4 was determined as delay length. Critical values were retrieved from Ng-Perron (2001). In all three tests, deterministic components (coefficient and trend) included in the model were determined based on the time way graphics of the time series (*)shows that it is statistically meaningful at 10% significance level, (**) at 5% significance level, and (***) at 1% significance level.

According to ADF and PP unit root test re-sults, it is determined that series of LH vari-able are stationary at level value (I(0)) and series of LCCI, LHPI, Li and Le variables become stationary after taking first level dif-ference (I(1)). Ng-Perron unit root test re-sults indicate that series of LH and LCCI are

stationary at level value (I(0)), and series of LHPI, Li, and Le variables become station-ary after taking first level difference (I(1)). The stationarity levels of series of variables enclosed in the model are examined, it is ob-vious that all series are not at the same level of order of stationarity. When this situation is

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taken into consideration, ARDL border test, which provides valid results in small sam-ples, is used.

In this study, existence of cointegration rela-tionship between series is examined through the ARDL model based on bound testing, and results are discussed based on long-term

and short- term dynamics. The model which is used to examine cointegration relations between series is designed according to the Schwarz Information Criteria and choosing maximum delay length as 2. Table 2 shows estimated results calculated based on ARDL (1,0,0,0,1) model which is considered to be the appropriate model.

Table 2. Estimated results of ARDL (1,0,0,0,1) Model

Variables Coefficient Standard Error t-Statistics

0,008 0,122 0,07

0,565* 0,287 1,96

2,309*** 0,420 5,49

-0,797*** 0,274 -2,90

0,875 0,887 0,98

-2,901*** 1,043 -2,77

R2 = 0,62

Adj-R2 = 0,58

DW = 2,20

A. LM (2) = 0,61 [0,55]

B. White = 0,76 [0,74]

C. RESET (2) = 2,98 [0,06]

Note: (*) shows that it is statistically meaningful at 10% significance level, (**) at 5% significance level, and (***) at 1% significance level.A: LM Test completed to determine autocorrelation between error terms,B: ARCH test completed to detect changing variance problem,C: Ramsey-Reset test completed to detect whether there is an identification error,[ ] : indicates likelihood values.

When the diagnostic test results of ARDL model which is designed to identify the deter-minants of first hand mortgaged house sales in Turkey are examined, it was observed that there was no problem regarding autocorrela-

tion and changing variance in this study. In addition, Ramsey-Reset test indicated that there was no identification error in the model. Based on these conclusions, the results of the study are accepted and assessed statistically

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significant since the model used for analysis indicated appropriateness and stability. Also, the coefficient was not included in model and estimated results because since the coeffi-cient included in Equation 3 was not statisti-

cally significant. In this regard, ARDL bound test (F-Test) was completed in the first phase in order to examine possible long-term rela-tionships (cointgeration relations) between variables. The results are shown in Table 3.

Table 3. Bound Test Results

F-statistics Critical Values

% 1 % 5 % 10

I (0) I (1) I (0) I (1) I (0) I (1)

14,58 3,07 4,44 2,26 3,48 1,9 3,01

ARDL bound test results indicated F-statis-tics that was higher than the 1% significance level, which identifies cointegration relations between variables. In this direction, long-

term relationships between the variables were determined by using ARDL model in the next phase. The long-term model used to estimate long-term coefficients is shown below.

Table 4 indicates the long-term results ob-tained as a consequence of the estimation based on the model shown in equation 4.

Table 4. Long-Term Coefficients

Coefficient Standard Error t-statistics

LCCI 0,57* 0,29 1,95

LHPI 2,33*** 0,29 8,03

Li -0,80*** 0,28 -2,87

Le -2,04*** 0,58 -3,53

Note: (*) shows that it is statistically meaningful at 10% significance level, (**) at 5% significance level, and (***) at 1% significance level.

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Based on this, the long-term results can be summarized as follows:

• There is a positive correlation between consumer confidence index and first hand mortgaged house sales at 10% sig-nificance level. 1% increase in consumer confidence index causes 0,57% increase in first hand mortgaged house sales.

• There is a positive relationship between house price index and first hand mort-gaged house sales at 1% significance level. 1% increase in house price index causes 2,33% increase in first hand mort-gaged house sales.

• There is a negative relationship between interest rates determined by banks and

first hand mortgaged house sales at 1% significance level. %1 increase in mort-gaged interest rates causes 0,8% decrease in first hand mortgaged house sales.

• There is a negative relationship between exchange rate and first hand mortgaged house sales at 1% significance level. 1% increase in exchange rate causes 2,04% decrease in first hand mortgaged house sales.

The next phase was to determine the short-term relationships between the variables af-ter identifying the long-term correlations. In this phase, following error correction method (ECM) was estimated.

Estimated ECM for analyzing short-term dynamics indicates whether short-term bal-ance converges to long-term balance or not, and if it converges, the model estimates the calibration speed. A negative and statistically significant parameter of coeffi-cient enclosed in Equation 5 indicates a con-vergence to long-term balance. If it is found as -1< <0 then the irregularities in

previous term should be corrected at level and should be included in the current period, so long-term balance is satisfied 1/ term later. If it is found as >0 then there is a di-vergence from the long-term balance.

Estimated results calculated based on ARDL error correction model identified by equation 5 are shown in Table 5.

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Table 5. Error Correction Model Estimated Test Results

coefficient Standard error t-statistics

0,565* 0,287 1,96

2,31*** 0,420 5,49

-0,79*** 0,274 -2,90

0,87 0,887 0,98

-0,99*** 0,122 -8,09

Note: (*) shows that it is statistically meaningful at 10% significance level, (**) at 5% significance level, and (***) at 1% significance level.

Based on the estimated results of the error cor-rection model shown in Table 5, it is seen that the coefficients of house price index and in-terest rates regarding the current period values are statistically significant. The relationship between current value of house price index and first hand mortgaged house sales is at the same direction in short-term period. In addition, a negative correlation was found between cur-rent value of interest rates and first hand mort-gaged house sale in short-term. On the other hand, error correction mechanism worked and the relationship between these two variables became in balance in long-term because ecm (-1) term had a coefficient between 0 and -1 (-0.99) and it is statistically significant. This situation indicates that short-term irregularities converged to long-term balance.

CONCLUSION

The results obtained in this study revealed that the coefficients of the determinants of

first hand mortgaged house sales in Turkey, which are consumer confidence index, house price index, mortgage interest rates deter-mined by banks, and exchange rate, were sta-tistically significant. It was also determined that the impacts of consumer confidence index and house price index on first hand mortgaged house sales were positive in the long term whereas interest rates and changes in exchange rate negatively affect first hand mortgaged house sales. On the other hand, when the long-term coefficients were exam-ined, it was observed that house price index and changes in exchange rate affect first hand mortgaged house sales more than consumer confidence index and interest rates. Accord-ing to the estimated results achieved by the error correction model, consumer confidence index and house price index affected first hand mortgaged house sales positively while mortgage interest rates affected first hand mortgaged house sales negatively.

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TÜRKİYE’DE İLK EL İPOTEKLİ KONUT SATIŞLARININ BELİRLEYİCİLERİ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA

Öz: Giriş: İnşaat sektörü TUİK rakamlarına göre GSYİH içindeki payı cari fiyatlarla yüzde 8,2’dir. Ekonomi içindeki büyüklüğünün yanı sıra gerek istihdama katkısı gerekse diğer sek-törlerle ilişkisi inşaat sektörünün Türkiye ekonomisi için önemini ortaya koymaktadır. İnşaat sektöründe en büyük pay konut sektörüne aittir. Konut satışları, özellikle 2012 yılından itibaren hızlı bir büyüme bir seyri içine girmiştir ancak 2016 yılının ikinci yarısından sonra daha ılımlı bir büyüme patikasına geçmiştir. İnşaat sektörünü canlandırmak amacıyla bankalar tarafından konut kredi faiz oranları indirilirken kredili konut satışlarında peşinat oranının indirilmesi, to-plam vadenin uzatılması, bir takım vergisel kolaylıklar gibi bir dizi destekler sağlanmıştır. Bu-radaki asıl amaç özellikle ilk el konut satışlarını artırmak ve yeni konutlarda stok erime hızını etkilemektir. Çünkü ilk el satışların düzeyi stok erimesinin yanı sıra inşaat sektöründe canlılığın devamı açısından önemlidir. TUİK rakamlarına göre 2016 yılı itibariyle ilk el konut satışlarının toplam konut satışları içindeki yeri yaklaşık yüzde 47 oranındadır. İlk el ipotekli (kredili) ko-nut satışları ise toplam konut satışlarının yaklaşık yüzde 15’ini oluşturmaktadır. Göreli olarak düşük payı dikkate alındığında ilk el ipotekli satışların artması toplam ilk el satışların artmasını sağlayacaktır. Dolayısıyla, ilk el ipotekli konut satışlarını etkileyen faktörlerin ne olduğu önem kazanmaktadır. Amaç: Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de ilk el ipotekli konut satış sayılarını etkileyen faktörlerin incelenmesidir. İlk el ipotekli konut satış sayısının belirleyicilerinin araştırılmasında açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak tüketici güven endeksi, konut fiyat endeksi, bankalarca açılan konut kredilerine uygulanan ağırlıklı ortalama faiz oranları ve döviz kuru değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Bu doğrultuda değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkileri incelenecek ve elde edilen bulgular değerlendirilecektir. Yöntem: Çalışmada Türkiye’de ipo-tekli konut satış sayılarını etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi için oluşturulan modelde toplam ilk el ipotekli konut satış sayısı, tüketici güven endeksi, konut fiyat endeksi, bankalarca açılan konut kredilerine uygulanan ağırlıklı ortalama faiz oranları ve döviz kuru değişkenleri yer almaktadır. Modelde tüm değişkenlerin logaritmik biçimleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada söz ko-nusu değişkenlere ilişkin 2013-2016 dönemine ait aylık zaman serileri kullanılarak analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmanın yöntemsel çerçevesine bakıldığında ilk olarak değişkenler için birim kök testleri yapılarak durağanlık dereceleri belirlenmiştir. Durağanlık sınamalarında ADF

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birim kök testi, Phillips-Perron birim kök testi ve Ng-Perron birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Sonrasında değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisi ARDL modeline dayalı Sınır Testi yaklaşımıyla incelenmiştir. Son olarak da belirlenen ARDL modeli ile uzun dönem dinamikleri incelenmiş, kısa dönem analizi için ise hata düzeltme modeli tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular ve Sonuç: ADF ve PP birim kök testleri sonuçlarına göre toplam ilk el ipotekli konut satış sayısı değişkenine ilişkin serinin düzey değerinde durağan olduğu, diğer değişkenlere ait serilerin ise birinci farkı alındıktan sonra durağan hale geldiği tespit edilmiştir. Ng-Perron birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre ise toplam ilk el ipotekli konut satış sayısı ve tüketici güven endek-si değişkenlerine ilişkin serilerin düzey değerinde durağan olduğu, diğer değişkenlere ilişkin serilerin ise birinci farkı alındıktan sonra durağan hale geldiği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Mod-elde yer alan değişkenlerin durağanlık derecelerine bakıldığında bütün serilerin durağanlık de-recelerinin aynı olmadığı görülmektedir. Bu durum dikkate alındığında, küçük örneklerde de sağlıklı sonuçlar veren ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımıyla analize devam edilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda ilk aşamada belirlenen ARDL modeline dayalı sınır testi (F testi) gerçekleştirilerek değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki (eşbütünleşme ilişkisi) olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. ARDL sınır testi sonuçlarına bakıldığında değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin var olduğu görülmüştür. Bu doğrultuda bir sonraki aşamada değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisi ARDL modeli yardımıyla belirlenmiştir. ARDL modeli uzun dönem tahmin sonuçlarına göre açıklayıcı değişkenlerin hepsinin toplam ilk el ipotekli konut satışları üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Seriler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkileri be-lirlendikten sonra değişkenler arasındaki kısa dönem ilişkileri hata düzeltme modeli yardımıyla belirlenmiştir. Hata düzeltme modeline ait tahmin sonuçlarına göre; konut fiyat endeksi ve faiz oranı bütçe değişkenlerinin cari dönem değerlerine ilişkin katsayıların istatistiksel anlamlı olduğu görülmüştür. Konut fiyat endeksinin cari değeri ile ilk el ipotekli konut satışları arasında kısa dönemde aynı yönlü ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bunun yanında faiz oranının cari değeri ile ilk el ipotekli konut satışları arasında ise kısa dönemde negatif ilişki olduğu bulunmuştur. Diğer yandan hata düzeltme mekanizmasının çalıştığı ve bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin uzun dönemde dengeye geldiği tespit edilmiştir. Diğer bir ifadeyle bu durum kısa dönemdeki dengesizliklerin uzun dönem dengesine yakınsadığını göstermektedir. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular Türkiye’de ilk el ipotekli konut satışlarının belirleyici faktörleri olarak modele da-hil edilen tüketici güven endeksi, konut fiyat endeksi, bankalarca konut kredilerine uygulanan faiz oranları ve döviz kuru değişkenlerinin katsayılarının istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Tüketici güven endeksi ve konut fiyat endeksinin uzun dönemde ilk el ipo-

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tekli konut satışları üzerindeki etkisinin pozitif olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Faiz oranı ve döviz kuru değişimlerinin ise ilk el ipotekli konut satışları üzerindeki etkisinin negatif olduğu bulunmuştur. Diğer taraftan uzun dönem katsayılarına bakıldığında, ilk el ipotekli konut satışları üzerinde konut fiyat endeksi ve döviz kurunun etkisinin görece daha fazla olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Son olarak kısa dönemde tüketici güven endeksi ve konut fiyat endeksi ilk el ipotekli konut satışlarını pozitif, bankalarca konut kredilerine uygulanan faiz oranları ise negatif etkilemek-tedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Konut Sektörü, İlk El İpotekli Konut Satışları, Türkiye, Eşbütünleşme, ARDL

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18. Is an author allowed to suggest a referee to contribute to the evaluation process? It is out of question. The field and system editors decide on the issue. Authors cannot interfere in this process.

19. Are the authors to sign the transfer agreement or publishing transfer contract? This situation is stated on the main page of the journal in the section titled publication princip-les. All the submitted papers are accepted to be transferred to the journal with exclusive rights. The author is not asked to sign the document concerning the submission. However, in some cases the author should sign the contract, required by the field editors or admi-nistrative board and submit it to the chief editor officially. Otherwise the paper will not be published.

20. Is an author allowed to withdraw his/her paper when desired? If the evaluation pro-cess has started, papers cannot be withdrawn. The paper can only be withdrawn in case of plagiarism and scientific disquality and if the author sends an official letter, explaining the situation to the chief editor. The journal acts unilaterally in this issue.

21. What is the process in papers requiring the approval and report of ETHICS BOARD? As in “Media Organs” of National and International journals, author(s) has to upload “Date of Report”, “Report Information-Report Number” to “Ethics Board Report Information” part of the publication sub mission system of the journal in “EXPERIMENTAL, CASE

STUDY and INSTITUTIONAL” works requiring ETHICS BOARD approval and report. The chief editor has the right to ask for the original report if deemed necessary with an official approval of the institution. In such cases, if the chief editor doesn’t get the ethics board report despite the request made, the manuscript cannot be included in the system and published even if it has obtained referee approval and completed the publication pro-cess. The paper is rejected with the decision of chief editor and other editors. In this case, author(s) cannot make a demand for right. This information isn’t necessary for the papers not requesting ethics board report or being lack of this report. However, this information should be uploaded to the system by author(s) for the papers requesting and having the ethics board report. Author(s) are held responsible for this situation. Our journal doesn’t accept any liability and responsibility regarding this matter. The whole responsibility in le-gal process belongs to author(s). Otherwise, our journal cannot bear any legal, spiritual and material responsibility. Journal management and referees cannot be imposed any liability in this matter. In case of a possible negative condition, our journal unilaterally reserves its legal rights.

INFORMATION FOR AUTHORS

1. The language of the journal is English. Original researches, analyses, compilations, case studies, projects and book launches are accepted (they must be in an article format).

2. If the editorial board and the administrative board approve the papers prepared in different languages, it is accepted. The journal acts unilaterally.

3. The journal has a printed and electronic version. The articles are downloaded from the web-site and the relevant manuscript can be used on condition that it is referred to our journal and “article”. The readers can have an access to all volumes of the journal for free on the website.

4. Papers are accepted on condition that the author is registered to be a member of the journal.

5. None of the authors can assert legal rights on the journal.

6. The journal cannot be held ethically and biostatistically responsible for the papers; ho-wever, the author himself/herself is unilaterally responsible for the articles. Our journal cannot be put under an obligation. Author(s) must get the relevant approvals and inform the journal management for the articles requiring ethics board or institutional approval. The in-formation of the papers requiring ethics board and institutional approval should be entered into the system by the responsible member author while uploading the article. In case of a problem, author(s) are unilaterally held responsible. Our journal never accepts liability in any matters.

7. The papers, submitted to the journal, should not have been sent to another journal previo-usly and under consideration of another journal for publication simultaneously. Also, if it is determined that an article sent and processed in our journal has been in the publication pro-cess at the same time, our journal unilaterally reserves its legal rights against the relevant author(s). If such cases occur, the article is rejected on condition that refutation is published and the journal imposes the required sanctions on the author(s).

8. Each study is evaluated by the two referees, and the approved papers by the two referees are saved to be published in the following issues. Evaluation period of papers is three months

according to the responses of referees. The papers that don’t yield any response regarding the evaluation within three months are directed to another referee. In this case, a time ex-tension is in question and a demand cannot be raised. The author cannot claim any right or withdraw the article from the system. The manuscripts in the referee evaluation process must be analyzed in terms of plagiarism and they should be sent to us and uploaded to the system in line with the scientific ethical rules. In case it has been determined that the artic-les published in our journal don’t comply with the scientific ethical rules, we reserve our legal rights against the relevant author(s).

9. None of the studies and authors has privileges in the journal. Each author and study has the same rights and they’re equal. No privilege is granted.

10. The names of the referees-experts in their fields will not be revealed to the authors. Infor-mation concerning the authors is known only by the system manager and the editor. It is kept confidential.

11. The papers uploaded to the system are first evaluated by the editor. A correction demand can be raised by our editorial board for the manuscripts not complying with the spelling rules. The articles edited in line with the spelling rules are sent to referee evaluation. The corrections demanded by the referee can be seen on the system by the relevant responsible author with the membership information and the correspondent author is informed via the system by e-mail. Every referee has the right to claim correction three times for a paper. If the correction isn’t still made after three demands, the paper is automatically “REJEC-TED”. The papers corrected in accordance with the referee suggestions are “ACCEPTED” or “REJECTED” after being evaluated by the editor again. The correspondent author is informed via the system by e-mail. The paper can be REJECTED with the decision of chief editor even though it has gone through the referee approval. All rights belong to the chief editor in this matter. None of the author(s) can impose a sanction on the decisions of chief editor or raise any demand.

12. If the article is produced from the thesis, presentation, and so on, it should be stated and explained in the footnote. Otherwise the author is accused of plagiarism. In that case, the journal cannot be held responsible for this situation.

13. If the paper is not within the scope of the journal, it is the editors and the administrators who will accept or reject the paper unilaterally. The author cannot assert any legal rights.

14. The uploaded study belongs to the journal with its exclusive rights by author(s). For this re-ason, it is not necessary for the author(s) to sign any other documents. The studies uploaded

to the system are regarded as being transferred to our journal with all rights. If necessary, author(s) can be demanded a transfer contract with wet signature.

15. In the articles evaluated in our journal, the correspondent author is regarded as the addres-see; other authors are not communicated and informed. The journal is not supposed to give information to other authors.

16. The referees act independently in the journal. Authors cannot exercise power over the refe-rees or cannot demand anything from the referees.

17. The journal publishes four times a year in March, June, September and December. Ho-wever, there might be changes in the periods depending on the publication process. The journal cannot be held responsible for this.

18. Following the evaluation process of the papers, the referee report can be seen on the system and sent to the correspondent author by e-mail. After completing the two-referee evaluation process, correction demand can be made via the system by e-mail. The corrections made before that cannot be allowed in the system. The edited paper should be uploaded again with the registered ID number. The authors should make the required corrections in 15 days. If the corrections are not made within 15 days, the article is rejected by the system automatically. None of the authors can impose sanctions on the journal in this case.

WRITING RULES OF THE JOURNAL

• The bibliography is arranged according to the Turkish alphabet order. The sample article for the writing rules and preparation of papers can be found on our website in Word format. All authors are required to take into account the writing format in the last volume of the journal.

• The main text of papers, abstract, tables and footnotes that will be sent to the journal must be written in MS Word Program, with Times New Roman in 12 pt. and single spaced.

• Page layout must be with 3 cm margin in the top, bottom, left and right.

• Texts must be between 15-20 pages, they must be no longer than 20 pages and page number must be indicated at the bottom of the page. Annex documents, tables, figures, charts and similar materials aren’t included in the number of pages.

• Page layout must include the titles, abstract and tables written in one column, the main text and the references should be given in two columns, justified and without indentation, spacing 12nk below the titles and paragraphs. Extended English Abstract must be provided after the references in 12 pt. and one column.

• On the first page, Özet and Anahtar Kelimeler in Turkish must be below the Turkish he-ading, Abstract and Key Words must be below the English heading. Abstract in Turkish and English must be no longer than 150-200 words in 12 pt. Sub-headings must include Abstract, Aim, Method, Findings, Conclusion and Key Words. Anahtar Sözcük(Ler)/Key Words must be given in 3-7 words below the Abstracts by capitalizing the first letters of each word. In addition to this, key words must be written in the space provided by the system by capitalizing the first letters of each word and by separating each word by com-ma. It is necessary to choose the Turkish keywords according to “Türkiye Bilim Terimleri” and English key words in accordance with the “Index Medicus Medical Subject Heading (MeSH)” standards (http://www.bilimterimleri.com).

• If the article has been presented in a conference, the title of the conference, the date and the place of the conference and the type of the presentation must be provided below the “Author’s note,” after the References part. For example, Author’s Note: This study has

been presented at “1.Ulusal Ana Çocuk Sağlığı Kongresi,” on 19-20 December 2014, in İzmir as an oral presentation.

• The names and the affiliations of the authors must not be given on the text below the title; this information must be uploaded to the system on the website.

• It should be stated that research articles have been prepared according to the scientific et-hical principles and ethical board report information (Name of the institution from which report is received, its date and the serial number of report) must be added to the system. It is also necessary to scan the ethical board’s report and the institution’s permit document and to send to our editorial office via e-mail. For the papers without ethical board report, a signed document indicating that it doesn’t have the ethical board report must be sent to the editorial board via e-mail.

• The main text must include such parts as Introduction, Method, Findings, Discussion, Conclusion, References, Acknowledgement (persons and institutions not participated in the study but contributed to the development of the study should be acknowledged here) and Extended Abstract. Extended English Abstract must be 750 words and more. Extended abs-tract must be prepared apart from Turkish abstract. It must be added to the paper after the references. The title (Extended English Abstract) must be written in capital letters, bold and centered, and the text must be justified without indentation, in 12 pt. and one column. Be-low the titles of Definition and Importance (references can be given only in this part), Aim, Method, Findings, Results and Conclusion, data concerning the article must be provided.

• Tables and figures must be placed in the text appropriately. Numbers and headings of tab-les/figures must be above the table; sentence case must be used in 12 pt., bold and justified. There must be a full stop between the table number and heading. Tables must only contain horizontal line. Each table must be referred to within the text. Items in the table must be in 1 line spacing and 12 pt. Explanations of the tables must be indicated below the table in 10 pt. and by putting * before it. E.g.: *Saraçoğlu, 2004:416-21.. Explanations about the abbreviations must be stated below the table and figure by using “*,**” or “a, b” in 12 pt. The number of tables and figures must be no longer than 6.

• Reviews must incorporate Turkish and English Headings, Abstract, Text, References and Extended English Abstract. Text should include a structure within a purpose, Conclusion parts must be completed. Headings, Abstract must be in one column; Text, References and Extended English Abstract must be in two columns, justified without indent and with 12 nk spacing in heading and at the end of the paragraph. Extended English Abstract must be 750 words and more. Extended abstract must be prepared apart from Turkish abstract. It must be added to the paper after the references. The title (Extended English Abstract) must be

written in capital letters, bold and centered, and the text must be justified without indentati-on, in 12 pt. and one column. Below the titles of Definition and Importance, Aim, Method, Findings, Results and Conclusion, data concerning the article must be provided within the Extended English Abstract.

• Case reports must include Turkish and English headings, Abstract, Introduction, Case Re-port, Discussion, References and Extended English Abstract. Headings and Abstracts must be 12 pt. and in one column; Introduction, Case Report, Discussion, References must be 12 pt. and in two columns justified without indent and with 12 nk spacing in heading and at the end of the paragraph. Extended English Abstract must be 750 words and more. Extended abstract must be prepared apart from Turkish abstract. It must be added to the paper after the references. The title (Extended English Abstract) must be written in capital letters, bold and centered, the text must be justified without indentation, in 12 pt. and one column. Be-low the titles of Definition and Importance, Aim, Method, Findings, Results and Conclusi-on, data concerning the article must be provided. Reports can be supported with photos and flow charts. Necessary permissions must be taken for photos and flow charts and references must be indicated in 10 pt. with “*”. E.g.: *Saraçoğlu, 2004:416-21.

REFERENCES WITHIN PAPER

• The sample article in the system must be used for citation rules. In other words, references are indicated with the name of author, the year of publication and page numbers in parent-heses beside the main text (Surname, Year of Publication: Cited Page Number).

• Footnotes of extra explanations about the content and other explanations must be given below the page. Notes numbered in the text are located below the page by numbers with the explanations.

• Citations made from a source are indicated between double quotes in the text.

• Citations longer than 30-40 words are given as an indented paragraph without using quotes.

• While providing references, if the name of the author isn’t within the text, the surname of the author and date of publication and the cited page are indicated in parenthesis: (Kork-maz, 2007: 23-45).

• If the name of the author is in the text, only the publication date of source and page number is given in parenthesis: Oskay et al.. (2005:36) in his/her study……….

• In sources with two authors, the surnames of both authors are indicated. If it is an English publication, it is separated with “and” (Morley and Robins, 2007:20).

• If it is Turkish, in sources with more than two authors, “vd.” is indicated: (Yücel vd., 2012:236).

• If it is English, in sources with more than two authors, “et al.” is indicated: (Hossain et al., 2007:156).

• If more than one study from the same author published in the same year must be used, the sources are separated by adding the letters like a, b, c: Such as (Ortaylı, 1999a:25) (Ortaylı, 1999b:43).

• If more than one source about the same subject is cited within the text, sources are separa-ted with a semicolon: (Geray, 2005:33; Moran, 2006:36).

WRITING REFERENCES

• Only the sources cited in the text must be included in the references and those sources must be put in order alphabetically by the surnames of authors. If more than one study belonging to the same author is included in the references, it must be sorted by the date of publication (from old to new).

• If the number of the authors is 6 or less, all the authors must be listed, if it is 7 or more, the first 6 authors must be listed and “vd.”, for Turkish articles and “et al.” for English articles must be used. After the last author, “&” must be used before “vd.” or “et al.”

• Anonymous writers from Internet sources must not be cited.

* BOOKS

SEVİL, Ü., YANIKKEREM, E., (2006). Kadına yönelik aile içi şiddet. İzmir, Türkiye: İzmir Güven Kitabevi, ss.36-66

*CHAPTERS IN A BOOK

TAŞKIN, L., YANIKKEREM, E., (2014). Aile planlaması. İçinde Kadın Sağlığı Hemşireliği, 12. Baskı, Ankara, Türkiye: Özyurt Matbaacılık, ss.527-545

SEVİL, Ü., YANIKKEREM, E., (2008). Adölesan dönemi. İçinde A. Şirin (Ed.), Kadın Sağlığı , İstanbul, Türkiye: Bedray Basın Yayıncılık, ss.57-90

BAYIK, A., SEVİL, Ü., (2004). Hemşirelik disiplini ve araştırma. İçinde İ. Erefe (Ed.), Hemşi-relikte Araştırma İlke Süreç ve Yöntemleri, 3. Baskı, İstanbul, Türkiye: Odak Baskı Ofset, ss.13-26

* ARTICLES

EGELİOĞLU, N., MUSLU, G.K., ŞEN, S., GÜNERİ, S.E., BOLIŞIK, B., SARUHAN, A., (2014). Ege Bölgesinde doğum sonu dönemde uygulanan geleneksel uygulamalar. Ulus-lararası Hakemli Hemşirelik Araştırmaları Dergisi (UHD), 1(1):22-35. Doi: 10.17371/UHD.2014018935

ÖZCAN, B., KOCAMAN, H., (2016). Eşler Arasındaki Yaş Farkının Boşanmalar Üzerindeki Etkisi, ACED Dergisi, 10:1-17 Doi: 10.17359/ACED.20161024262

ŞEN, E., GÜNERİ, S.E., YANIKKEREM, E., HADIMLI, A., KAVLAK, O., ŞİRİN, A., et, al., (2012). Determination of knowledge requirements and health practices of adolescent pregnant women. International Journal of Caring Sciences, 5(2):171-178

PUBLICATION PRINCIPLES

1 Papers which are submitted to the journal for publication are expected not to have been published somewhere else, not to be in the evaluation process of another publication organ. If it is determined that the manuscript uploaded by the relevant author(s) has been sent for evaluation or REJECTED by another journal, we reserve all kinds of legal rights about the relevant author(s).

2 Papers outside the accepted disciplines and fields in our journal are rejected. The accepted fields are stated under the “DISCIPLINES” title of our journal. None of the papers outside these fields can be published or requested to be published in this journal.

3 The content and scientific responsibility of the papers cannot be imposed on the journal under any circumstances. The whole responsibility belongs to relevant author(s).

4 In articles with more than one author, the correspondent author is the one who ranks first. Or the member uploading the paper to the journal accepts and has to accept the whole res-ponsibility.

5 The abstract should be prepared both in Turkish and English and between 150 and 250 words. The title should also be both in Turkish and English. The purpose of the paper, sco-pe, method, limitations of research, findings and conclusion should be included in Turkish and English parts.

6 If the paper has been prepared from such organs as thesis, book etc., it should be stated at the end of references part with “Author’s Note” by referring to the first title. If the paper has been prepared from a master’s or doctoral thesis, the name of the advisor should be ranked in the second place. If the thesis advisor doesn’t want to see her/his name in the relevant paper, our journal should be informed about this situation with a document. It should be a document with wet signature. Our journal and management doesn’t have such a liability to question author(s) about the source of papers reproduced from thesis or another paper. The whole responsibility belongs to author(s). The author(s) already accept these conditions.

7 Sources used in the works must be prepared according to the appropriate template of the jo-urnal. This template is presented to all author(s) as a Word file on our website. Besides, the last volume of our journal should always be taken into account. Our journal and manage-ment unilaterally belongs the right to change these criteria in line with their own demands.

8 Every paper evaluated should get the approval of two referees. If one of the referees has rejected and the other one has approved, the editor sends the paper to the third referee. In line with the opinions and suggestions of the third referee, editor acts in accordance with her/his own authority. Chief Editor of the journal unilaterally reserves the right to REJECT even if the paper has been approved by referees. In this case, none of the author(s) can cla-im a right or demand. All kinds of management, practice and procedure belong to the chief editor of the journal. The relevant paper prepared in English is evaluated by the English language editor. Also, every paper is evaluated in terms of the writing rules of our journal by the technical editor. If the English language editor decides that the paper is inappropriate for our journal, the authorized person who will REJECT or amend this decision is the chief editor. Language editor and technical editor don’t have the right to REJECT. They transmit their suggestions to the chief editor and the chief editor unilaterally applies the decision in line with the demands and suggestions. Field editors transmit their opinions regarding eva-luation and publication of the papers uploaded to the system to the chief editor. The chief editor acts with her/his own authority in line with the opinions and suggestions of field editors. Major or minor corrections can be made after the evaluation of papers. Author(s) are requested for corrections THREE times. If the corrections aren’t made after three de-mands, the article is rejected after the chief editor is informed by the system editor. The manuscripts uploaded to the website are first analyzed by system editor or technical editor before sending to the referee. This analysis is performed within the framework of spelling rules. System or technical editor informs author(s) about the necessary demands. If these demands aren’t satisfied, the chief editor is informed about the result. Chief Editor makes the final decision according to the information. This decision is unilaterally up to the chief editor either in a negative or positive way. None of the institutions and individuals has the right to impose sanction on the decision made.

9 English and Turkish abstracts should be written in Times New Roman with 12 pt. All author(s) are obliged to act and arrange their papers in accordance with the sample article format on our website.

10 The names of the institutions of author(s) should be written in 12 pt. and italic with Times New Roman. It is stated in the sample article format.

11 The paragraph spacing of the whole manuscript should be single spaced.

12 The references should be stated in a way that the reference is italic and the name and author’s surname rank at the first place just like in the sample article. For example; YILMAZ, A., GÜVEN, M., (2017). İşletmelerde Sağlık Yönetiminin Önemi, …………………………… Dergisi, Sayı: 1, Cilt: 1, ss.1-2. The references should be indicated within the text as (Yıl-maz, 2017: 1-2) or (Yılmaz, et al., 2017: 1-2). Internet resources are never used within the text. These sources are numbered and indicated at the bottom of the page. The citations made from such internet resources as Wikipedia should never be used. If such use of reso-urces is determined, the manuscript is unilaterally REJECTED. None of the author(s) can impose a sanction and raise a demand on our journal in this matter.

13 The internet resources should be indicated in the references part under the title of “INTER-NET RESOURCES”. The link should be included in the resources and the Access date should be after the link like “E.T. 01.01.2017).

14 Typesetting and editing of the paper should be in accordance with the sample article format on the website and the references within the text must be prepared as per the sample article.

15 The current papers are uploaded to the system by the author being the member of the system step by step. The paper uploaded is sent to the relevant field editor by the system manager and asked for approval for referee evaluation. If there are more than one author name in the paper, this information should be inserted in the system together with the na-mes and institutions of author(s) while uploading the paper to the system. Our journal and management never accepts responsibility regarding the problems that may arise about the names and institutions of authors related to the article. This information must be unilate-rally inserted in the system by author(s). Our journal and management aren’t responsible to insert this information to the system. Our journal and management only take into account the information uploaded to the system by author(s).

16 The language of our journal is English. However, the papers prepared in different situations and principles are accepted in other languages. In this case, the publication board unilate-rally reserves the right to use initiative or reject. Relevant author(s) cannot be effective or impose sanction on our journal in this matter.

17 The author cannot decide on which referee will evaluate the paper and won’t know the in-formation of the referee making the evaluation. After the referee evaluation of the relevant paper, the correspondent author who accepts the responsibility in uploading the paper to the system is informed via the web system. The e-mail address in the journal system should be valid and correct. The member author is unilaterally responsible for any delay and problem that may arise about the authors whose membership information isn’t valid and correct in the system. Our journal doesn’t address comments to other authors. The member author

who uploads the paper to the system is the addressee and the responsibility belongs to the relevant author. If the paper is uploaded to the system by someone else whose name isn’t in the paper, the relevant member becomes responsible for this situation. Our journal and management are never responsible for possible problems. All kinds of correspondences and information related to the article are directed to the member author. Our journal isn’t supposed to inform other author(s).

18 Information about the authors and the materials of communication are confidential and it is only known by system manager and the editor. Therefore, authors don’t have such a right to ask for referee evaluation or any other demand. Information on referees and authors are only shared with the system editor, technical editor, chief editor and the field editor.

19 The number of pages uploaded to the system is 20. This number can increase according to the subject of the paper. Annexes and tables can be excluded from this number. However, publication board, field editor and the chief editor unilaterally reserve their right to make a positive or negative evaluation. Author(s) cannot claim a right in this matter.

20 Our journal is an “e” electronic journal but is also published in paper version. Individuals who would like to get printed version of the journal can obtain it by paying the necessary fee to the relevant printing company. Our journal does not have to provide printed version of the journal to any author or individual. Annual membership fee should also be sent to re-levant printing company for works sent to our journal. A reasonable amount of fee is reques-ted from the author of the paper approved for publication considering the journal expenses and according to the conditions of that time. The relevant author or the person who makes the payment is sent a receipt about the payment by the beneficiary company.

21 Evaluation process of works uploaded to the system is two months. Works which are not evaluated within this period of time and about which information report is not received are sent to a different referee. Author(s) cannot claim a right on our journal and management because of this delay. It is out of question for the papers being in the referee evaluation process to be withdrawn from the journal under any circumstances.

22 Our journal publishes four times a year. The journal and publication board has a right to publish special issues. This is up to the initiative of journal management.

23 Publication and copyright of published papers belong to our journal. Publication right of every paper uploaded to the system is automatically transferred to the journal. The respon-sible author approves the transfer contract created at the same time with the button on the website while uploading the paper to the system. None of the authors are requested to sign the copyright agreement for this procedure. Journal management has the right to demand

transfer agreement with wet signature if required. The papers being in the referee evalua-tion process cannot be withdrawn from the publication. A valid reason should be indicated for the papers that are withdrawn. Otherwise, legal action is unilaterally taken against the relevant author(s). Author(s) approve these conditions in advance for the paper uploaded to the system. None of the author(s) have a right to object.

24 Relevant author(s) are supposed to insert the ethics board or institutional approval whi-le uploading the paper to the system if necessary. The whole responsibility unilaterally belongs to author(s) in case of a possible problem if the information of papers for which ethics board or institutional approval is required isn’t inserted in the system or the journal management isn’t informed. Our journal is never asked to accept such a responsibility. Our journal and management doesn’t have to ask or monitor this information.

IT IS CONSIDERED THAT ABOVEMENTIONED 24 ITEMS OF PUBLICATION PRINCIP-LES GUIDELINE ARE ACCEPTED BY AUTHOR OR AUTHORS WHO ARE INVOL-VED IN THE SYSTEM. NO AUTHOR HAS THE RIGHT TO OBJECT TO THESE PRIN-CIPLES. OUR JOURNAL HAS UNILATERAL RIGHT IN TERMS OF PUBLICATION PRINCIP LES, AND PUBLISHING, EVALUATION OR REFUSAL OF WORKS. THIS RIGHT CANNOT BE CHANGED UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES AND CONDITI-ONS. OUR JOURNAL HAS THE RIGHT TO USE ITS LEGAL RIGHTS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF RELE VANT LAWS AND LIABILITIES IN CASE OF AUTHOR/AUTHORS WHO DO NOT ACT IN ACCORDANCE WITH RELEVANT PRINCIPLES AND RULES. EVERYBODY WHO IS INVOLVED IN THE SYSTEM HAS AUTOMA-TICALLY AGREED ON THESE POINTS IN ADVANCE.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

1 Is your journal a refereed and international journal? Our journal is a refereed, scientific and international journal. It is indexed by many international indices.

2 Which fields are accepted in your journal? Only the papers in the fields accepted by the journal are approved.

3 Does your journal charge any publication fee? A certain amount of fee is requested per the manuscript accepted for publication in return for some expenses. There is no such de-mand for the rejected papers.

4 Are the readers allowed to access to the volumes andthe articles without being a mem-ber of the journal? All the volumes can be downloaded from our website in pdf format without being a member.

5 What is the publication frequency of the journal? The journal publishes three times a year; the volumes with full texts are uploaded to the system at the end of April, August and December. However, some special issues can be published in some cases.

6 Are the authors informed about the evaluation process of the submissions? The journal is web-based, and the authors can follow all kinds of information concerning their submis-sions from the membership panel of the system. The authors will also be provided with the necessary information about the process and procedure.

7 How many referees evaluate a manuscript? Manuscripts are firstly evaluated by the fi-eld editors and then the ones found appropriate are sent to the referees by the field editors. Field editors send the approved papers to two field referees and referee evaluation process begins. This process takes two months at most according to the referee evaluation. If evalu-ation reports are not received within three months, the article is sent to the third referee. If there is still not any progress, field referee, and the editorial board decide on the publication process.

8 Is any information concerning “the author and authors” confidential? In this journal and all the international refereed journals, information, concerning the author(s) is known

only by the system editors, field editors, chief editor and assistant chief editors. This in-formation is completely kept confidential. The referees or members of the journal are not allowed to access to the relevant information.

9 Are there a certain number of articles to be published in the journal? There are not a certain number of articles in the journal. Each article, approved by the referees and the edi-torial board, is accepted to be published in the journal without delay and sent for the layout process which is the final stage.

10 Is an author allowed to submit more than one paper in the same issue? It is out of the question in terms of ethics. However, more than one manuscript of the same author can be published in the same journal or the following issues if the publication and editorial board approve the articles. But this situation is only valid for specific cases and those requiring initiative. This case is only valid for special conditions and those requiring initiative.

11 Is there sufficient number of referees in all the fields that the journal accepts articles? All the submissions sent to our journal are subjected to evaluation by expert academicians and scientists and referees are not getting paid for the evaluation they make. Evaluation and reports are only on a volunteer basis.

12 What is the duty of the science and advisory board? The science and advisory board is responsible for solving the incompatibility problems that the referees experience; the board gives the final decision independently, and they act actively to solve such problems. The decisions of the science and advisory board are accepted without questioning. The decisi-ons are applied accordingly. Their decisions cannot be changed and offered to be changed.

13 Is an author allowed to submit his/her paper to the science and advisory board in a negative situation? This situation is out of the question. Functionality of science and advi-sory board occurs only with the approval of the editor-in-chief.

14 If an author submits her/his paper simultaneously to another journal for considera-tion, and the paper is accepted in that journal too, what kind of procedures is taken? The executive board and editorial board give the final decision in such cases. As the publi-cation board does not regard such attitudes as ethical, even if the paper has been published, it is removed from the system on condition that refutation is published, necessary institu-tions are informed, and the rights are reserved. However, in order to avoid such problems, the guidelines for the authors should be read carefully and the appropriate papers should be submitted. Our journal’s all rights are kept reserved under the guidance of journal’s legal advisors within the framework of Turkish Commercial Law and Law on Intellectual and

Industrial Rights in such negative conditions. It defends its material and moral rights within the framework of Laws of Turkish Republic.

15 Does your journal accept papers from other languages? Currently, the language of our journal is Turkish and English. However, studies in English and other languages are also accepted.

16 Is an author allowed to get information about referees evaluating her/his paper? It is out of question. The names of the referees will never be revealed to the authors even if they want to learn. The author cannot recommend a referee for the paper s/he sent. Only the editor-in-chief, assistant editors, field editor and system editor can decide on this. It is also out of the question to assign a referee outside those boards and to give information.

17 Is an author allowed to give a name of a referee that s/he does not want her/his paper to be evaluated by? If such a problem occurs, and the referee is in the journal list, on con-dition that the process is confidential, the author should submit the necessary explanations and reasons in an official document to the editor-in-chief. If this is approved by the chief editor, necessary steps are taken; otherwise, common procedures and standard working are carried out.

18 Is an author allowed to suggest a referee to contribute to the evaluation process? It is out of question. The field and system editors decide on the issue. Authors cannot inter-fere in this process.

19 Are the authors to sign the transfer agreement or publishing transfer contract? This situation is stated on the main page of the journal in the section titled publication principles. All the submitted papers are accepted to be transferred to the journal with exc-lusive rights. The author is not asked to sign the document concerning the submission. However, in some cases the author should sign the contract, required by the field editors or administrative board and submit it to the chief editor officially. Otherwise the paper will not be published.

20 Is an author allowed to withdraw his/her paper when desired? If the evaluation pro-cess has started, papers cannot be withdrawn. The paper can only be withdrawn in case of plagiarism and scientific disquality and if the author sends an official letter, explaining the situation to the chief editor. The journal acts unilaterally in this issue.

21 What is the process in papers requiring the approval and report of ETHICS BOARD? As in “Media Organs” of National and International journals, author(s) has to upload “Date of Report”, “Report Information-Report Number” to “Ethics Board Report Information” part of the publication sub mission system of the journal in “EXPERIMENTAL, CASE

STUDY and INSTITUTIONAL” works requiring ETHICS BOARD approval and report. The chief editor has the right to ask for the original report if deemed necessary with an official approval of the institution. In such cases, if the chief editor doesn’t get the ethics board report despite the request made, the manuscript cannot be included in the system and published even if it has obtained referee approval and completed the publication pro-cess. The paper is rejected with the decision of chief editor and other editors. In this case, author(s) cannot make a demand for right. This information isn’t necessary for the papers not requesting ethics board report or being lack of this report. However, this information should be uploaded to the system by author(s) for the papers requesting and having the ethics board report. Author(s) are held responsible for this situation. Our journal doesn’t accept any liability and responsibility regarding this matter. The whole responsibility in le-gal process belongs to author(s). Otherwise, our journal cannot bear any legal, spiritual and material responsibility. Journal management and referees cannot be imposed any liability in this matter. In case of a possible negative condition, our journal unilaterally reserves its legal rights.

Atakent Mah. Akasya 1 Evleri C2/23 Blok Kat 4 Daire 17 Halkalı Küçükçekmece İstanbul

IIB International Refereed Academic Social Sciences JournalIIB - Uluslararası Hakemli Akademik Sosyal Bilimler DergisiKayaşehir Mah. Evliya Çelebi Cad. Başakşehir Emlak Konutları

1/A D Blok Kat: 4 Daire: 29 Başakşehir, İstanbul, TürkiyeTel: +90 212 801 40 61 Fax: +90 212 801 40 62

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