international conference on ccs: session 1.2 - mr. juho lipponen
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2010
Carbon Capture and Storage: Carbon Capture and Storage: Global Potential and ChallengesGlobal Potential and Challenges
NDRC and ADB International CCS ConferenceNDRC and ADB International CCS ConferenceBeijing, 28 July 2011Beijing, 28 July 2011
Juho LipponenJuho LipponenHead of Unit, Carbon Capture and StorageHead of Unit, Carbon Capture and Storage
International Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2010
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
IEA countriesOECD countries, but not IEA members
Inter-governmental body founded in 1973, currently 28 Member Countries Policy advice and energy security coordination Whole energy policy spectrum and all energy technologies Flagship publications include WEO and ETP Host to more than 40 technology-specific networks (“Implementing
Agreements” or “IAs”) Operated independently with their own membership and financing Includes GHG IA
Active in CCS since 2000; dedicated CCS unit created in 2010 Provides policy advice Supports broader IEA cross-technology analysis
© OECD/IEA 2010
IEA – China NEA Joint Statement
Mr. WU Yin, Deputy Administrator, National Energy Administration,
China, during the Meeting of the IEA Governing Board at Ministerial Level in Paris on
14 October 2009.
Energy security Energy efficiency Renewable energy Market reform Cleaner coal Energy statistics Technology collaboration Personnel exchanges Translation of publications
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CONTENTS
1. Trends and targets in energy use and related emissions
2. Potential of carbon capture and storage
3. Challenges ahead for CCS
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GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS DOUBLED
Global energy-related CO2 emissions have more than doubled in past 40 years, from 14Gt to 30Gt
Until very recently, emissions driven by OECD countries Since 2005, non-OECD countries emit more than OECD Current CO2 concentration in atmosphere roughly 390ppm
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ENERGY DEMAND CONTINUES TO GROW
Energy demand +35% by 2035 China: 35% of global incremental demand OECD demand stagnates
* “New Policies Scenario”, IEA World Energy Outlook 2010
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1990199520002005201020152020202520302035
Mto
e ChinaUnited StatesEuropean UnionIndiaMiddle EastJapan
Inter-regional (bunkers)Rest of world
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CO2 EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO GROW
Energy-related CO2 emissions 35 Gt by 2035 Gas-related CO2 emissions grow fastest (1,3%pa),
followed by coal (0,5%pa) 650ppm CO2-eq pathway
* “New Policies Scenario”, IEA World Energy Outlook 2010
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TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE FUTURE Current policies or “reference scenarios” unsustainable Scientific evidence and policy ambitions now often target
“450ppm scenarios” (50-50 chance to keep temperature increase at ≤2C)
Critical period NOW to establish policy and develop technology
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CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE: LIMITED ROLE WITH KNOWN POLICIES...
Steady improvement of average coal plant efficiency Share of CCS in coal-fired power remains below 10% in 2035 (and
only 3% of total power generation) No gas-CCS No or very limited industry-CCS
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… BUT CRITICAL IN “450” SCENARIOS
IEA analysis assigns critical role for CCS in a least-cost pathway to reaching 450ppm scenario
Role of CCS increases after 2030 contributes 1/6 of total needed reductions against baseline 2010-2050
450ppm achievable without CCS, but at higher cost Stronger reliance globally on gas replacing coal is alone not enough to
stabilise emissions
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CAN THE POTENTIAL OF CCS BE EXPLOITED?
3000+ projects across the globe 3000+ across industries: CCS not only about coal-fired power 150Gt CO2 captured and stored
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CCS IN INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS
NEW publication
Release on 20 September in Beijing!
CCS a key emissions abatement option in industry; in several industries, deep emission cuts can only be achieved through CCS
Potential to reduce CO2 emissions by up to 4.0 Gt annually by 2050 Up to 1800 projects globally by 2050 Investment of some 880bn USD 2010-2050 Applying CCS in high-purity sectors represents early opportunity
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CO2 IS CAPTURED AND STORED AS WE SPEAK…
Sleipner 1Mt Snohvit 0,7Mt
Weyburn >2,3Mt
In Salah 1,2Mt Rangely 1Mt
Five integrated large-scale projects are currently storing >5Mt CO2 per year; also other relevant projects
Several smaller-scale pilot installations across the globe Applied R&D by government, industry and research community Academic research into capture, transport and storage
technologies and related sciences China: several pilot projects demonstrating technologies needed
to capture, transport and store CO2
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… AND MORE IS PLANNED
72 other integrated large-scale projects in various stages of development
Source:
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CHALLENGES REMAIN FOR CCS Firm decisions to address climate change Understanding of CCS and recognition of its role CCS in industry and biomass
OECD vs. non-OECD countries International legal issues e.g.
London Protocol and OSPAR
Knowledge on storage capacity Time required for storage site development Long-term liability Public acceptance
CAPEX, OPEX Market
dynamics, incl. impact of cheap gas
Industrial deployment bottlenecks
Infrastructure planning and coordination
Existing public support 25-35bn USD globally
OECD – non-OECD Incentive policy
pathways
Need to mobilise 5 trillion USD 2010-2050
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CONCLUDING REMARKS
Energy demand and emissions continue to grow CCS has potential to deal with 1/6 of needed
emission reductions by 2050 This potential WON’T be realised if the world
does not adopt policies towards 450ppm type outcomes
This potential MAY be realised, if ambitious policy and incentives exist…
…and other challenges are solved China has developed significant experience in
CCS technologies and can leverage this position
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ADVANCING DIALOGUE IS ESSENTIAL
AND MANY OTHERS!
