INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Energy Technology Policy Progress and Way Forward

Fridtjof UnanderEnergy Technology Policy Division

International Energy Agency

ECCP II ConferenceBrussels

24 October 2005

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Presentation Overview

A look back on past trendsLooking ahead; scenarios to 2030 and

2050Technology policy messagesFuture work: G8 Plan of Action

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Looking backLooking back

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Energy Demand and Savings since 1973 Energy Demand and Savings since 1973 IEA -11IEA -11

Without energy savings achieved since 1973 energy demand in 1998 would have been 50% higher

Actual energy use

Additional energy use without

savings

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997

ex

ajo

ule

s

50%

OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises &Climate

Challenges

Hypothetical energy use, without savings

IEA-11 Energy Use IEA-11 Energy Use Impact of Energy Savings Impact of Energy Savings

OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises &Climate

Challenges

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Ave

rag

e A

nn

ual

% G

row

th

Hypothetical Energy Use Hypothetical Energy Use without Energy Savingswithout Energy Savings

IEA-11 Energy Use IEA-11 Energy Use Impact of Energy Savings Impact of Energy Savings

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Ave

rag

e A

nn

ual

% G

row

th

Energy Energy SavingsSavings

Actual Actual Energy UseEnergy Use

Hypothetical Energy Use Hypothetical Energy Use without Energy Savingswithout Energy Savings

Rates of energy savings have slowed significantly after 1990, leading to rapid demand growth

OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises &Climate

Challenges

IEA COIEA CO22 Emissions 1973 - 2001 Emissions 1973 - 2001

Recent trends show steady increase

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

in

19

90

= 1

00

%

0.1%/year

1.1%/year

OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises &Climate

Challenges

IEA COIEA CO22 Emissions per GDP Emissions per GDP 1973 - 20011973 - 2001

Rate of decline has slowed since 1990

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

CO

2/G

DP

(k

g C

O2

/US

D)

-2.6 %/year

-1.2 %/year

OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises &Climate

Challenges

IEA-11 COIEA-11 CO22 Emissions Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy SavingsImpact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings

OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises &Climate

Challenges

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Ave

rag

e A

nn

ual

% G

row

th

Hypothetical CO2 Emissions@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency

IEA-11 COIEA-11 CO22 Emissions Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy SavingsImpact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings

OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises &Climate

Challenges

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Ave

rag

e A

nn

ual

% G

row

th

Less carbon Less carbon in fuel mixin fuel mix

Hypothetical CO2 Emissions@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency

IEA-11 COIEA-11 CO22 Emissions Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy SavingsImpact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings

Slowing energy savings rates primary reason for accelerated growth in emissions after 1990

OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises &Climate

Challenges

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Ave

rag

e A

nn

ual

% G

row

th

Less carbon Less carbon in fuel mixin fuel mix

Energy Energy SavingsSavings

ActualActualEmissionsEmissions

Hypothetical CO2 Emissions@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Looking aheadLooking ahead

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Rapid Growth in CO2 Emissions Expected Ahead

CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt

of C

O2

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

Source: WEO 2004

Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios

CO2 emissions are 16% less in the Alternative scenario in 2030,

a reduction of about 6 Gt of CO2

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

Source: WEO 2004

Contributory Factors in CO2 Emission Reduction, 2002-2030

Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use

for 20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

49%

10%

8%

12%

21%

OECD

63%

1%

21%

15%

Transition economies

67%

7%

17%

4%5%

Developing countries

58%

World

End-use efficiency gains

7%

Fuel switching in end uses

5%

Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation

10%

Increased nuclear in power generation

20%

Increased renewables in power generation

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

But this is not enough…But this is not enough…

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[Gt C

O2/

yr]

50$/t CO2 w ith CCS

50$/t CO2 w ithout CCS

Example of IEA Technology Analysis : Role of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)

$50/tCO2: 2050 emissions would be 25%

higher in absence of CCS

+ 25%PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Long-term Technology OpportunitiesLong-term Technology Opportunities

No silver bullet, but some features are clear: Accelerating energy efficiency improvements can

make a difference in the short and long term CCS is a crucial technology in the medium term Renewables can steadily make an increasing impact

and is key for the long-term sustainability

Need to pursue a “portfolio” approach in developing policies for technology deployment and R&D

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Future workFuture work

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

IEA Analysis of Long-term Technology IEA Analysis of Long-term Technology Opportunities planned for 2006Opportunities planned for 2006

Update of IEA World Energy Outlook Alternative Policy Scenario including analysis of new energy technologies that are expected to emerge from 2030 to 2050

New IEA publication “Global Energy Technology Perspectives” will address in detail how technologies may impact long-term energy markets (2050)

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

IEA Roles in the G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action

Dialogue partner Advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies Transform the way we use energy

Energy indicators Buildings Appliances Surface transport Industry

Powering a clean energy future Cleaner fossil fuels Carbon capture and storage Develop renewable energy IEA Implementing Agreements Electricity grids

Promoting Networks for Research and Development Enhance the Implementing Agreements and reinforce links with

developing countries and industry

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Working with Others

The IEA technology networkNational governments

Major developing countries

Industry

Other international organisations

Existing international initiatives