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International Gun Homicide Data & Perspective on the Gun Control

Debate

Gaetan Lion

December 19, 2012

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The US stands out…

Firearm Firearm Firearm homicide rate

per 1,000 in millions per 100,000US 88.8 270 2.97Switzerland 45.7 3.4 0.77Finland 45.3 2.4 0.45Sweden 31.6 2.8 0.41Norway 31.3 1.4 0.05France 31.2 19 0.06Canada 30.8 10 0.51Austria 30.4 2.5 0.22Germany 30.3 25 0.19Iceland 30.3 0.1 0New Zealand 22.6 0.9 0.16Australia 15 3 0.14Japan 1.8 0.7 0.01

Sources: the Guardian Datablog, UNODC 2011 & Small arms survey 2007.

Among other developed countries, Americans’ ownership rate of guns (firearm per 1,000) is far higher at 88.8. The prevalence of guns is amazing at 270 millions. And, the related gun crime rate (2.97 per 100,000) is a high multiple of any other developed nations shown.

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Very high correlation between gun ownership rate and gun homicide rate

This correlation stands at 0.9 very close to a perfect positive correlation of 1. Therefore, gun ownership rate explains 81% (square of correlation) of gun homicide rate.

Firearm Firearm homicide rate

per 1,000 per 100,000US 88.8 2.97Switzerland 45.7 0.77Finland 45.3 0.45Sweden 31.6 0.41Norway 31.3 0.05France 31.2 0.06Canada 30.8 0.51Austria 30.4 0.22Germany 30.3 0.19Iceland 30.3 0New Zealand 22.6 0.16Australia 15 0.14Japan 1.8 0.01

Correlation 0.90

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Other study finds close correlation between % of households with guns vs % of crimes that are murders

Note the variables are different than the ones I used. And, the relationship is not linear but exponential. Yet, the strength of that relationship is amazing.

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Even factoring higher gun ownership, the US homicide rate stands out

Actual Trend est.Firearm Firearm

Firearm homicide rate homicide rate Actual/per 1,000 per 100,000 per 100,000 Trend

US 88.8 2.97 1.03 2.9Switzerland 45.7 0.77 0.47 1.6Finland 45.3 0.45 0.46 1.0Sweden 31.6 0.41 0.28 1.4Norway 31.3 0.05 0.28 0.2France 31.2 0.06 0.28 0.2Canada 30.8 0.51 0.27 1.9Austria 30.4 0.22 0.27 0.8Germany 30.3 0.19 0.27 0.7Iceland 30.3 0 0.27 0.0New Zealand 22.6 0.16 0.17 1.0Australia 15 0.14 0.07 2.1Japan 1.8 0.01 na na

A linear regression generates pretty good homicide rate estimates of a country given its gun ownership rate.

However, for the US its actual gun homicide rate is nearly 3 times higher than what the regression line trend suggests

What this means is that not only Americans have a lot more guns than anyone else, but that Americans use them nearly 3 times as much to kill each other than citizens of other developed countries.

More guns times more usage = much higher homicide rate.

Visual Data

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This visualizes the data on the previous slide. The red dots are the actual data. The blue ones are the regression estimates that fit the data very well of any other country except for the US (at the right) where the actual homicide rate level is nearly 3 times the estimate.

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Thoughts

Reducing gun ownership through gun control legislation is indispensable to resolving this issue. But, other related confounding cultural factors remain that cause the US homicide rate to be so much higher than as predicted.

Key questions include who owns those guns? Why do they own them? And, what kind of guns are they?

Notice that Switzerland and Scandinavian countries have relatively high gun ownership rates. Yet, their related homicide rate is far smaller than the US. In Switzerland, the ownership rate is boosted by the fact that every male active in the military (2 weeks mandatory service per year) keeps his military rifle at home. And, this fact probably accounts for nearly 100% of the gun ownership in this country. Probably similar factors are true in Scandinavia and other European countries. From a homicide implication, the answers to the mentioned questions are probably more problematic (causal) for the US.

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Data access

You can readily access the data at this link.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/jul/22/gun-homicides-ownership-world-list.

I encourage you to study the data firsthand and draw your own conclusion and share your findings with friends and colleagues.

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Is there hope?

Yes, there is. A quick “Images” Google Search reveals that while the US crime rate is extraordinarily high for a developed country, it has declined since the early 90s…

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# of Crimes has declined since the mid 90s

The current crime level is where it was back in the mid 80s. This means the actual crime rate is a lot lower than in the mid 80s.

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# of crime by weapons has declined since the 90s

Notice how handguns account for the majority of the crimes.

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Crime rate has declined since the 90s

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Different types of crime rates have declined since the 90s

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Nonfatal gun related crime is dropping too

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Good trends in 2009 over 2008

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Gun Homicide rate by region

The blue surface represents the national trend. The red one represents the region’s trend.

See how low New England is, and how high West South Central is. Those trends probably correlate with income, education, unemployment.

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Crime rate for four major cities

Three out of the four cities show spectacular decline. However, Houston’s crime rate trend remains flat.

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Crime rate by age group

The aging of the population bodes well for crime rate.

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Conclusion• In the first half of this presentation, we observed how both gun ownership

and gun related crime rates are extraordinarily high in the US vs any other developed country;

• In the second half of the presentation, we shared how US crime rates of all types have declined for the past twenty years;

• The combination of those two themes suggests that first there is a lot of room for improvement. The US has a long way to go before it will narrow the gap vs the much lower crime rate of its international counterparts. But, second the situation is far from hopeless. Existing trends alone suggest our crime rate should continue declining. This declining trend may be supported by a combination of factors we have not explored much if at all including: 1) aging of the population, 2) rising education levels, 3) rising living standards, and 4) overall empowerment of women. Additionally, an improved Federal gun control legislation would most probably support the mentioned crime rate downtrend. To consider the counter argument, how could a gun control legislation truly increase the gun related crime rate?