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International migration in Birmingham Migration is broadly defined as a change in a person’s usual residence, it is an important contributory factor to population and social change. Migration can be divided into moves across national boundaries (international) and within a country (internal). The UK does not have a comprehensive system for monitoring international migration, however we can draw on administrative data. Internal migration is covered in a separate briefing. This briefing will look at a variety of data sources that give an indication of international migration in Birmingham. Components of population change National Statistics estimate components of change during the calculation of the annual mid-year population estimates for local authorities. The mid-year 2019 estimate for Birmingham’s population is 1,141,800. Figure 1 shows the components of population change since mid-2010. For the year to June 2019 there is estimated to be a net flow of 4,400 international migrants, this is down 38% compared with the previous year and is the lowest estimate since 2012 to 2013. Natural change (births minus deaths) of 7,479 further adds to Birmingham’s population. This is offset by a net loss of 11,600 Birmingham residents, leaving to live elsewhere in the UK. This resulted in a very modest population growth of 400 people between 2018 and 2019. Table 2 provides a more detailed breakdown, it shows that over the last decade there was an average net outflow of 6,400 Birmingham residents to other parts of the UK, a net inflow of 6,600 international migrants and an additional average of 8,660 people from natural change. 2010 to 2019 the average population growth is 9,200 people per year.

Figure 1: 2010 to 2019 Components of population change – Birmingham

Source: ONS, population estimates, Crown Copyright 2020

Table 1: Components of change in Birmingham’s population 2010-2019

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National Insurance number (NInos) registrations year to June 2020 In the 12 months to June 2020, 14,000 NInos were registered to foreign nationals living in Birmingham. This is down on 15,200 (8%) the previous year. Figures 2 and 3 show the proportion and number of NIno applications registered between 2011 and 2020 by world area. Since 2019 the majority of applications have been from other EU nations, however the latest figures show a change, where 55% of applications were from outside the EU. Applications from the EU have started to show a marked decline following the EU Referendum in 2016.

Figure 2: 2011 to 2020 National Insurance numbers issued to foreign nationals by world region

Source: Department of Works and Pensions, Crown Copyright 2020

July 1st 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019

start population 1,050,100 1,061,100 1,074,300 1,085,200 1,092,200 1,101,500 1,113,000 1,128,100 1,137,100 1,141,400

births 17,100 17,500 17,600 17,500 17,200 16,800 17,200 17,000 16,200 15,700

deaths 8,200 8,100 8,000 8,400 8,200 8,700 8,400 8,500 8,600 8,200

natural change 8,800 9,400 9,600 9,100 9,000 8,200 8,700 8,500 7,600 7,500

internal in-migration 38,300 38,000 42,300 40,800 42,500 42,900 43,300 51,100 50,300 52,000

internal out-migration 44,900 43,600 45,500 46,500 47,600 47,400 47,800 58,800 60,700 63,500

internal net-migration -6,600 -5,500 -3,200 -5,600 -5,100 -4,500 -4,500 -7,600 -10,400 -11,600

International in-migration 13,300 16,100 11,700 12,000 13,700 15,800 17,700 14,200 16,100 16,500

international out-migration 6,900 8,600 7,200 8,600 8,300 7,900 6,900 5,900 9,000 12,100

international net-migration 6,400 7,500 4,500 3,400 5,400 7,900 10,800 8,300 7,200 4,400

overall net-migration -200 2,000 1,300 -2,200 300 3,400 6,300 700 -3,200 -7,200

special 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 -100 100

other changes 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0

UPC 2,500 1,800 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

total population change 11,000 13,300 11,000 7,000 9,400 11,500 15,200 9,100 4,300 400

end population 1,061,100 1,074,300 1,085,200 1,092,200 1,101,600 1,113,000 1,128,100 1,137,200 1,141,400 1,141,800

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Figure 3: National Insurance numbers issued to foreign national 2011 to 2020

Source: Department of works and pensions, crown copyright 2020

Table 2 shows the top ten countries of origin for foreign workers registering for a NIno in the year to June 2020. There were more registrations from Romania (2,290) than any other country, this was followed by Pakistan (1,010). Romania (-930,-40.6%) and India (-410,-58.6%) showed the largest decline compared with the previous year. The largest increase in registrations was from Pakistan (620, 38%).

Table 2: NIno registrations - top 10 countries, Birmingham Country Registrations

mid-2020 Registrations

mid-2019 2019 to

2020 Change number

2019 to 2020

Change percent

Romania 2,290 3,220 -930 -40.6 Pakistan 1,630 1,010 620 38.0 Italy 1,370 1,220 150 10.9 India 700 1,100 -410 -58.6 Spain 490 640 -150 -30.6 Poland 400 290 100 25.0 France 390 300 90 23.1 Portugal 340 390 -50 -14.7 China 330 390 -60 -18.2 Bangladesh 330 310 20 -6.1

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Table 3: NIno registrations year to June 2020 - Constituencies Westminster Parliamentary Constituencies

European Union Asia

Rest of the

world All

countries Ladywood 1,910 1,640 930 4,470 Hodge Hill 850 570 320 1,740 Perry Barr 770 580 280 1,630 Edgbaston 600 450 380 1,420 Hall Green 590 570 250 1,410 Yardley 560 330 180 1,070 Erdington 540 190 180 900 Selly Oak 310 340 220 870 Northfield 150 90 80 310 Sutton Coldfield 80 40 40 160 Total 6,340 4,790 2,850 13,980

Figure 4: Birmingham National Insurance numbers allocated to overseas nationals year to June 2020 -Westminster Parliamentary Constituencies

Source: Department for Works and Pensions, Crown Copyright 2020

Table 3 and figure 4 show the number and proportion of NIno registrations by Westminster Parliamentary Constituency. In the year to June 2020 the highest number of registrations was in Ladywood (4,470), followed by Hodge Hill (1,740). Compared to EU nations, there were registrations from non-EU countries for all Constituencies, except for Yardley and Erdington. The difference in Yardley was modest, however in Erdington the registrations from EU nations were 30% higher than from non-EU nations.

Figure 5 shows NIno registrations for small areas in the year to June 2020. Registrations are few in the north and south of the city . Registrations are most concentrated to the west of city, registrations are also above average in the central third of Birmingham, excluding the eastern periphery.

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Figure 5

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Overseas students School Children

According to the January 2020 Schools Census there were 185,423 Birmingham school children from reception age to year 11. The largest ethnic group was White British (28.3%) followed by Pakistani (24.4%). Table 5 and figure 7 show how ethnic group distributions in Birmingham schools have changed since 2011. The White British, Black Caribbean and Indian groups’ share in the school population has declined while all other ethnic groups have increased. Within the White group the number of children classified as Gypsy or Romany heritage was less than 100 in 2011, this has risen to over 1,000 in 2020. The number of Black African school children has almost doubled since 2011. Figure 8 shows the distribution of school children living in Birmingham by ethnic group, there are fewer non-white school children living in the North and South of the city. Higher proportions are found in neighbourhoods that are among the most deprived in England

Table 5: Birmingham school children classified by ethnic group - percentage Year White

British Other white

background

Mixed background

Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Caribbean African any other

ethnic group

2011 39 2.9 6.4 5.7 24.1 5.3 5 5.2 5.7 2012 37.5 2.9 6.7 5.7 24.7 5.4 4.9 5.5 6 2013 36.3 3.1 6.9 5.6 25.1 5.6 4.8 5.6 6.2 2014 34.8 3.4 7.1 5.6 25.3 5.6 4.6 6.2 6.6 2015 33.2 3.8 7.6 5.6 25.2 5.6 4.4 6.6 7.3 2016 32 4.3 7.8 5.5 25.1 5.6 4.2 7 7.9 2017 30.9 4.7 8.3 5.4 24.8 5.6 4 7.3 8.2 2018 30 4.8 8.6 5.4 25 5.8 3.8 7.5 8.4 2019 28.9 5.0 9.0 5.4 25.0 5.9 3.6 7.9 8.7 2020 28.3 4.9 9.0 5.3 24.4 5.8 3.4 7.9 8.8 Source: Schools Census, Crown Copyright 2020

Figure 7: Ethnic group of Birmingham school children – 2011 compared to 2020

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. Source: Department for Education (DFE), Crown Copyright 2020

Figure 8

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Parents country of birth

Table 6: Parent’s country of Birth (mother) – Birmingham Year All

live births

UK All countries

EU New EU, (A8, A2)

Europe (non EU)

Middle East & Asia

Africa Rest of World

%live births to non-UK born

2019 15,483 8,962 6,521 1,305 990 145 3,431 1,419 221 42.1 2018 15,916 9,220 6,696 1,392 1,083 143 3,483 1,417 261 42.1 2017 16,506 9,619 6,887 1,336 1,060 138 3,685 1,497 231 41.7 2016 17,404 10,215 7,188 1,394 1,103 131 3,828 1,552 283 41.3 2015 16,828 10,032 6,796 1,195 950 124 3,749 1,461 267 40.4 2014 16,925 10,156 6,768 1,109 866 88 3,926 1,322 323 40 2013 17,421 10,609 6,811 986 762 93 4,062 1,379 291 39.1 2012 17,766 10,932 6,833 894 667 91 4,175 1,341 332 38.5 2011 17,423 10,743 6,680 800 579 70 4,168 1,319 323 38.3 2010 17,240 10,695 6,545 733 531 72 4,127 1,318 295 38 Source: ONS, Crown Copyright 2020

There were 15,483 Live births to mothers resident in Birmingham in the year to June 2019, of these, 6,521 (42.1%) births were to non-UK born mothers. Overall, the number of births was down on 2018, for both UK and non-UK born women. Figure 9 shows the gap closing between UK and non-UK born women. 2010 to 2019 there was an increase in the number of births to non-UK born mothers of 2.4%. This compares with a -16.6% decrease for UK born women.

Figure 9: Live births to UK and non-UK born women living in Birmingham

Source: ONS, Crown Copyright 2020

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Table 7: Parents country of birth – Birmingham

Year Live births

Live births

where one

parent is born

outside the UK

% Live births

where one

parent is born

outside the UK

Live births

where both

parents are born

outside the UK

% Live births

where both

parents are born

outside the UK

Live births

where either

one or both

parents are born

outside the UK

% Live births

where either

one or both

parents are born

outside the UK

2019 15,483 3,274 21.1 4,283 31.2 8,097 52.3

2018 15,916 3,253 20.4 5,007 31.5 8,260 51.9

2017 16,506 3,428 20.8 5,130 31.1 8,558 51.8

2016 17,404 3,561 20.5 5,358 30.8 8,919 51.2 Source: ONS, Crown Copyright 2020

Table 7 shows that when the country of birth of the father is taken into account that over 50% of births are to families where either one or both of parents were born outside of the UK. Unfortunately, there is no information on a parent’s date of entry into the UK. It is not possible therefore to use this data to estimate migration. Nevertheless, the data illustrates the indirect, demographic effects of international migration.

New migrant GP registrations In year to June 2019 there were 21,500 new migrant GP registrations In Birmingham, this is a -10% decrease on the previous year and up 38% since 2010. Figure 8: 2010-2020 Birmingham new migrant GP registrations.

Source: ONS, Crown Copyright 2020

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Appendix 1 Table 9: National Insurance registrations to foreign nationals (where number of registration exceeded 100) – Birmingham Nationality 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 population

change 2019 to

2020

% population

change 2019 to

2020

population change 2011 to

2020

% population

change 2011 to

2020

Romania 363 305 427 1,897 5,659 6,203 5,313 4,047 3,218 2,293 -925 -28.7 1,930 531.7

India 2,450 1,129 763 547 843 747 741 714 1,009 1,626 617 61.1 -824 -33.6

Pakistan 3,283 2,296 1,306 775 1,204 965 1,072 1,163 1,222 1,371 149 12.2 -1,912 -58.2

Italy 168 207 333 429 932 1,309 1,514 974 1,101 696 -405 -36.8 528 314.3

Spain 264 337 485 498 868 837 754 570 635 486 -149 -23.5 222 84.1

Norway 64 71 84 92 152 129 184 168 291 395 104 35.7 331 517.2

Sweden 78 100 98 88 147 127 128 153 301 392 91 30.2 314 402.6

France 336 309 307 302 484 507 440 437 386 341 -45 -11.7 5 1.5

Portugal 120 167 253 230 410 389 418 311 391 328 -63 -16.1 208 173.3

Nigeria 377 358 248 280 388 299 263 245 312 327 15 4.8 -50 -13.3

China 770 625 413 377 555 483 457 437 378 324 -54 -14.3 -446 -57.9

Bangladesh 426 291 238 191 282 302 306 295 330 294 -36 -10.9 -132 -31.0

Poland 1,253 1,229 1,532 1,280 1,890 1,581 1,093 606 471 268 -203 -43.1 -985 -78.6

Iran 381 182 203 109 244 212 245 201 214 255 41 19.2 -126 -33.1

Netherlands 221 227 271 261 518 503 353 258 322 235 -87 -27.0 14 6.3

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Nationality 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 population change 2019 to

2020

% population

change 2019 to

2020

population change 2011 to

2020

% population

change 2011 to

2020

Greece 59 110 166 135 235 264 284 284 298 228 -70 -23.5 169 286.4

Ghana 71 54 58 52 107 88 105 95 159 206 47 29.6 135 190.1

Somalia 241 109 98 53 71 61 58 79 96 198 102 106.3 -43 -17.8

Sudan 159 89 85 88 151 244 173 150 161 189 28 17.4 30 18.9

Germany 196 199 157 133 212 206 213 170 203 181 -22 -10.8 -15 -7.7

Eritrea 172 99 111 103 263 171 333 250 263 180 -83 -31.6 8 4.7

Bulgaria 95 93 114 209 395 395 462 280 222 178 -44 -19.8 83 87.4

Iraq 245 66 53 34 55 68 77 108 103 149 46 44.7 -96 -39.2

Afghanistan 254 159 105 79 106 93 109 103 162 145 -17 -10.5 -109 -42.9

Albania 16 12 14 16 34 31 34 55 97 134 37 38.1 118 737.5

Belgium 61 42 57 80 88 94 120 82 125 124 -1 -0.8 63 103.3

Vietnam 53 50 44 58 96 38 50 71 86 100 14 16.3 47 88.7

Gambia 72 37 49 51 58 38 44 39 51 99 48 94.1 27 37.5

Egypt 27 42 34 38 39 35 63 45 79 95 16 20.3 68 251.9

Ireland 191 166 191 199 301 288 241 176 145 93 -52 -35.9 -98 -51.3

United States 65 75 79 87 100 74 105 93 88 93 5 5.7 28 43.1

Hungary 107 182 228 184 238 235 195 167 105 84 -21 -20.0 -23 -21.5

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Nationality 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 population change 2019 to

2020

% population

change 2019 to

2020

population change 2011 to

2020

% population

change 2011 to

2020

rest of the world 3,729 2,801 2,305 1,931 2,807 2,599 2,403 2,165 2,215 1,871 -344 -15.5 -1,858 -49.8

Birmingham 16,367 12,218 10,909 10,886 19,932 19,615 18,350 14,991 15,239 13,978 -1,261 -8.3 -2,389 -14.6

Rounded to the nearest 10. Figures may not add due to rounding. Source: DWP, Crown copyright 2019

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How International migration is estimated

An international migrant is a person who changes their country of usual residence for a least a year. International migration estimates are made up of immigration, emigration, asylum seekers and refugees and their dependents. Migration is the least robust component of population estimates as there is no system for recording migration. International migration is estimated using the International Passenger Survey (IPS). The IPS identifies people who intend to change their country of usual residence for at least a year. It is a sample survey, meaning that no all migrants are interviewed. These surveys are undertaken at airports, sea routes and the Channel tunnel. The migrant survey responders are scaled to produce a national international migration estimate. As is the case with sample surveys the results are subject to a degree of statistical uncertainty. It is not possible to obtain local authority estimates using the IPS. Estimates are derived using a variety of data sources and methods. International Passenger Survey (IPS) National estimates of population are based on the IPS, this is an ONS survey that operates at UK ports of arrival and departure. The goal is to identify people who intend to stay or leave the UK for at least 12 months. This is a sample survey, so only some of the migrants are interviewed and of those only a small proportion will be long-term international migrants. The responses obtained are scaled to produce a national migration estimate. Some local authorities may have low or no representation in the IPS sample. Also, migrants may change what they said they would do, so the IPS is not suitable for obtaining international migration estimates. Local authority estimates for international migration are derived using a variety of data sources and methods: Visitor switchers and migrant switchers: A migrant switcher is a person who said they were coming for over 12 months but actually departed within a year. A visitor switcher is a person who said they were coming for less than 12 months but stayed for longer. Migrant and visitor switchers are identified by the IPS as they complete their journey. An estimate of switchers is calculated for the proportion of migrants who changed their minds about the duration of their stay. Immigration-local authority estimates: a variety of data sources are used Migrant workers scan (MWS)- this is the main source used to distribute immigrant workers, it provides a count of foreign nationals applying for National Insurance numbers. Customer Information System (CIS) - CIS contains a record for all individuals who have registered and been issued with a National Insurance number and it enables MWS, HESA, PRDS to be more accurately linked together, (this only applies from mid-2015 onwards). Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data – is used for distributing publicly funded higher education and private higher education students. Administrative data sources from Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and Welsh Government (WG) – this is used to distribute further education student immigrants from the EU. Census data – this is used for distributing returning UK-born migrant flows. Patient Register Data Service (PRDS) – FLAG 4 registrations are used alongside other administrative sources to distribute the remaining immigrants – children, those aged 17-59 who are not students or workers and those aged 60 and over.

Age structure The 2011 Census data on immigrants has been used to group local authorities into clusters with similar age and sex structures. The sex and age distribution is based on the average sex and age distribution of the cluster group.

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International emigration A statistical model is used to estimate emigration at local authority level. The relationship between the estimate of immigration from the IPS and estimates from other data sources (covariates) is used to produce a more robust estimate of emigration than using the IPS alone. The model requires a response variable and covariates. The response variable is the weighted estimate of emigration (based on a three year average). The covariates are from the census, administrative and survey data that have been found to have a strong relationship with emigration at local authority level. Covariates are:

• Usual residents with limiting of long-term illness • Usual residents with Mid-or Far East-Asian country of birth • Usual resident of Oceania country of birth • Usual residents of North American country of birth • Usual residents of South – Asian country of birth • Usual resident living in hostels • Accommodation owned with mortgage • Accommodation rented • Retired people • Employed aged 16 and over • Number of births with country of birth of mother EU2 • Number of births with country of birth of mother EU8 • EU Students ( excluding the UK) in higher education in final year of study aged 20 to 25 • Migrant workers ofEU8 nationality • International in-migration estimates for the year of interest • GP registered patients aged 5 to 15

The modelled estimates at the local authority level are constrained to the IPS estimates at the regional level. The sex and age breakdown is obtained by combining 2011 Census data with the IPS data. This process groups local authorities into clusters based on sex, age and citizenship data. Census data for immigrants is used to classify local authorities into clusters that have similar patterns of UK and non-UK born migration as a proportion of the total population. Immigration data is used as emigration data is unavailable. It is assumed that immigration data is likely to show similar patterns of UK born and non-UK born migration to that shown in emigration patterns at local authority level. Using the local authority clusters derived from the census, IPS data for emigrants are used to create a distribution by citizenship (British, non-British) and sex for each cluster. It is assumed that British and non-British emigrants are likely to have different age structures. Three years of IPS data is used to provide a detailed single year of age distribution, by citizenship and sex.

Asylum seekers and dependents The UK Border Agency provides ONS with data about asylum seekers and their dependents. Any asylum seeker flows captured by the IPS are excluded from process, this ensures that flows are not double counted. Asylum seeker flows are only available at regional level. Local authorities have records for those that received support from the National Asylum Support Service (NASS). There are no records at local authority level for those that claim asylum but not support. When distributing asylum seekers to local authorities 60% are assumed to receive support and 40% are unsupported. The 60% assumed to be receiving support are distributed using the local authority distribution for those receiving support for accommodation. The remaining 40% are assumed to have the same geographical distribution as those given subsistence-only support by NASS.

Refugees The Home Office operates a number of international resettlement schemes, eligible people are granted humanitarian protection, while they are referred to as refugees, they do not strictly have refugee status. Refugees are now a separate component of the mid-year population estimates. Any inflows of refugees captured by the IPS

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are discounted, to prevent double counting as the home office supplies an extract of the resettlement database to ONS. The database includes information on age, sex and citizenship of the refugees. For those entering under the Syrian Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Scheme (SVPR) information on their initially assigned local authority is also available. This initial local authority is assigned as their place of usual residence. It is thought that outward flows of refugees would be very small, but ONS suggest this would be covered by the IPS as they leave their port of departure. November 2020