Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006

International Telecommunication UnionInternational Multimedia Telecommunications Consortium

ITU-T

IPTV market trends IPTV market trends

Noel Matthews – TANDBERGTV

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 2

ITU-T

TV over last 10 years

o Increase in digital TV platforms• 1995 = 5• 2000 = 100• 2005 = 230

o STB prices decreased• 1995 = $300+• 2005 = $50-

o Worldwide adoption of digital standards• DVB and ATSC

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 2004

Subs

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 3

ITU-TConsumed

Digital TV growing and replacing analogTime shifted viewing goes mainstream (VOD & PVR)Interactivity spreading based on a proven business model

Acquired and deliveredProduce once, deliver manyIP everywhere!Driving new delivery models for contribution and DTH deliveryHDTV spreading worldwide

MonetizedNew revenue models exploit new technology & changing viewer habits

Continuous changes

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 4

ITU-T

High Definition TV

o HD is already a mass market in the USA • 15M HDTV Broadcast Viewers by

the end of 2005 – MPEG2• HD cable boxes up 170% in 2005• Direct TV = 1,650 channels by

2007 – H.264

o APAC is already there• Australia and Japan• PCCW launching HD over DSL

o H.264 HD services happening in Europe• 14m HD homes receiving HDTV

by 2009

Source: In-Stat Mar 05

Global HDTV Viewers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Millions Viewers

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 5

ITU-T

On demand content

o 10% of today’s television is time shifted

• 2010 – 50% of television will be viewed on the PVR

o Video on demand will drive cable and IPTV growth

• Comcast on Demand:

— 2003: 1,400 titles with 21M views/month

— 2005: 3,400 titles with 107M views/month

— 2007: 50,000+ titles!

Digital VoD Growth

717

23 27 31 35 38 42 45 49 52

127

44

3 23

2 2 0 -

47 43 39 36 33 30 27 24 21 20 17

-1020304050607080

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Subs

crib

ers

(m's

)Digital: VoD Digital: non-VoD Non-digital

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 6

ITU-T

Interactive Television

o Service providers need to differentiate

o Interactive allows delivery of specific content FOR the consumer• No longer just the push

model of broadcast TV• Logical extension of on

demand content

o Interactive is the future of Television • Red button applications in

UK• Over 20,000 hours of iTV in

USA last year

US Operator Revenues from Interactive Services

$0m

$200m

$400m

$600m

$800m

$1,000m

$m

Year $34m $102m $233m $452m $780m

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source : Kagan 2005

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 7

ITU-T

Broadband TV

o Broadband networks allow delivery of TV directly to the home• Direct connection between

the content owner and the consumer

• No platform operator!• Forrester estimating 2006

broadband TV advertising revenues of $200 M

o MTV Overdrive broadband site delivered 13 million videostreams from the Video Music Awards, during or after the show ran on cable networks.

o Already there• SKY movies• MTV Overdrive • VH1 VSpot,• Nickelodeon, • CNN Pipeline• Comedy Central, • Country Music

Television),• ESPN,

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 8

ITU-T

Mobile video

o Mobile will have a significant impact on the TV industry• For both the creation and

delivery of contento 2005 market for mobile

content was £600mo By 2008 there will be 10.8

million mobile video users• 2004 revenue $29M• 2008 revenue $1.4B

o O2 UK trial• 3 hours per week average

and 23 minutes per viewing session

• 36% used it at home!

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2004 2006 2008

Mobile Video Users

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 9

ITU-T

IPTV

o Telcos, ISPs and utility companies are engaging in IPTV• Defensive strategies

o 2005 - Real success stories• Imaginio (Telefonica Spain)• Jazztelia TV (Jazztel)• Belgacom (Belgacom) • Fastweb TV (Fastweb)• MaLigneTV (France Telecom)• Lyse Bredbånd TV (Lyse)• NOW Broadband TV (PCCW)• Dubai Internet City (Dubai)

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 10

ITU-T

European IPTV market

o 700k subscribers by end of 2005• France = 281,000

(Free + Maligne)• Italy = 190,000

(Fastweb)• Spain = 58,000

o IPTV penetration• Norway = 1.5%• France = 1.1%• Italy = 0.86%

o Forecast = 9m by end of 2009• France = 2.4m• Italy = 1.5m• UK = 1m

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 11

ITU-T

European IPTV launches

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 12

ITU-T

European IPTV Subscriber Growth

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009

Source: External research Nov’05

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 13

ITU-T

Market Trends by Region

Total IPTV Households

02468

1012141618

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mil

lio

ns

EuropeUSAsia

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 14

ITU-T

IPTV reality - 2005

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 15

ITU-T

IPTV market offerings

o H.264 is the key enabling technology for DSL

• SD = 1.5 Mbit/s• HD = 6 – 8 Mbit/s• Hybrid TV services

o But “me2TV” is not enough

• Very competitive market• Telcos need to capitalise on inherent 2-way

IP networko Content on demand – including video

• Everything is an asset• On demand and push models

o Enhanced TV experience

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 16

ITU-T

IPTV service offering

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 17

ITU-T

Challenges for IPTV

o Network

• Improved access technologies for higher rate DSL

• True end to end QoS – in to the home network

• Intelligent network resource allocation (BRAS)

o IPTV Service provision

• Picture quality on DSL (Advanced video coding)

• Advanced “Content on demand” services (Network PVR)

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 18

ITU-T

AVC – bit rates for HD and SD

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Resolution

Bit

Rat

e (M

Bits

)

MPEG-2

WindowsMedia™ 9

High end HD broadcast1080i30 (1920 pixels)SD

AVC

2,000+ 2,000+ channels channels AVC AVC delivered!delivered!

HD for Europe?720p50

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 19

ITU-T

Challenges - VoD and advertising

o IPTV operators must run Ondemand serviceso On demand changes the revenue model

• Linear advertising no longer works

o Dynamic on demand ad insertion enables revenue generation• For free and premium content.

o As VoD volumes build so does the attractiveness to the advertising world

o Targeting on demographic/geographic basis now possible• Particularly in an IP network

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 20

ITU-T

Placement Decisions

Intelligent Ad Placement Decisions

Site Info

Targeting Engines• Geographic• Demographic• Psychographic

Tag Information• Local Dealers• Proximity Mapping

Site Customer Info• Zip Codes Served• RFI privacy masking

Site Customer Info• Zip Codes Served• RFI privacy masking

Tech Info

Tech Information• Software • iTV availability• DVR, other hardware info

Tech Information• Software • iTV availability• DVR, other hardware info

Media Types• iTV• DVR• RFI

Title Info

Placement Rules• Genre/Type• Avail Rules• Brand Associations

Title Information • Metadata• Avails

Title Information • Metadata• Avails

Long Form Ads

Neighborhood Tagging

Dynamic Streams

iTVDVR Ad placement

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 21

ITU-T

CatcherCatcher

AdPackaging

AdPackaging

Avail-Enabled Program

Assets

Avail-Enabled Program

Assets

AdAssets

Real-Time Placement Messages

Asset Avail List

Avail MarkingAvail

MarkingProgram

AssetPackaging

ProgramAsset

Packaging

Reporting

Campaign Delivery

VOD Server/Broadcast Inserter/

DVR Device

VOD Server/Broadcast Inserter/

DVR Device

PlacementRules

Ad AssetsInternet Push

Delivery Satellite Push

Delivery

Inventory & Delivery Schedule

Internet Pull

LocalCampaignManager

LocalCampaignManager

AdRepository(s)

AdRepository(s)

Ad AssetsNational

CampaignManagers

NationalCampaignManagers

AssetManagement

System

AssetManagement

System

VOD/DVR Ad Placement architecture

CatcherCatcher

Program Asset

Delivery

PlacementManager

PlacementManagerAs Run Log

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 22

ITU-T

On demand content in the network

o Open architecture for greater flexibilityo Distributed architecture across the networko Content encrypted throughout the entire networko Content ingest process must be streamlinedo Produce once, know where it is and deliver many time!o Timeshift TV brings technical and legal challenges!

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 23

ITU-T

Multi platform delivery

o Consumers will expect content delivery to a range of devices

o Platform operators want common infrastructure

o Many challengeso Technical:

• Format for many devices• Content work flow and

storage for multiple formatso Production:

• Content does not look the same on different devices

• Wide screen shots• Contrast ratios

o Role of standards?

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 24

ITU-T

Open standards

o Digital TV’s success is directly related to open standards

o Core to the success of IPTV is non-proprietary, standard based delivery architecture• Published, open APIs• no vendor lock-in

o In particular:• Open interfaces/API for

content management• International Metadata

standards for IPTV and cable

Joint ITU-T Workshop and IMTC Forum 2006 “H.323, SIP: is H.325 next?“San Diego, 9-11 May 2006 25

ITU-T

Summary

o The future is not just delivery of content to the viewer but for the consumer• When, what and where the

consumer wants it

o Revenue models will change• VoD vs linear• There will be winners and

losers

o IPTV is happening and will become an important player in the content delivery market• But not just “me2tv”• Build flexible networks and

play to their strengths