International Trade IssuesMaria C. ZiebaDirector of International Affairs

Data Source: USDA-FAS Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) CY Basis

$0

$30

$60

$90

$120

$150

1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Billion U.S.

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)

Kennedy Round Of GATT

Trade Act of 1974

Tokyo Roundof GATT Japan: Beef

and Citrus

Trade Act of 1988

NAFTA

Uruguay Roundof GATT

Fast TrackChina in WTO

Doha Development Round

Trade Promotion Authority

CAFTA-DR

Korea, Colombia,Panama Trade Agreements

U.S. Agricultural ExportsU.S. Agricultural Imports

$115 billion

$135 billion

Trade Agreements Create Opportunities for U.S. Agriculture

TRADE WORKS Promotes rural prosperity

Exports added over $53 to price of each hog marketed

110,000+ U.S. jobs are dependent on pork exports

U.S. Free Trade Agreements Lead to Increased Opportunities for Pork Exports

Data Source: USDA FAS

Canada FTA

NAFTA(Mexico)

WTO Uruguay Round (Japan)

China WTO Accession

Singapore FTAChile FTA

Australia FTADR-CAFTA

Peru FTA

Korea FTAColombia FTA

Panama FTA

0

225,000

450,000

675,000

900,000

1,125,000

1,350,000

1,575,000

1,800,000

2,025,000

2,250,000

2,475,000

Met

ric T

ons

Annual U.S. Pork Exports

U.S. Exports More Pork to 20 FTA Countries than Rest of World

Combined

Data Source: USDA-FAS Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS)

$3.09 billion

$2.8 billion

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

20 FTA 174 Non-FTA

Nearly ½ of Pork Exports Destined for NAFTA, South Korea in 2017

Data Source: USDA FAS

NAFTA

NAFTA Termination is still an option

Next round Feb. 26

Issues:– Autos: Rules of Origin – ISDS– Government Procurement– Sunset Review– Currency Manipulation

– New market access– Trade Remedies

• Chapter 19• Seasonal and regional

CVD/AD

NAFTA Maintain current market access

– Mexico #2 export market - $1.35B in 2016– Canada #4 export market - $798M in 2016– 16,225 U.S. jobs (combined)

Terminating NAFTA would cost the industry $1.5 billion or $12.40 per animal

KORUS

KORUS Maintain current market access

– #5 export market – $365 million in 2016– $258.6 million in 2017

Terminating KORUS would cost the industry $4.71 per animal

TRADE ACTIONS

2018 Trade Actions Section 201: Washers, Solar Panels Section 232: Steel, Aluminum Section 301: China

Could invoke retaliation by biggest export markets: – Canada– Mexico– China– S. Korea

COMPETITION

Source: USTR; IDB Integration and Trade Sector based on INTrade.

RTA Expansion 1975

RTA Expansion 1995

Source: USTR; IDB Integration and Trade Sector based on INTrade.

Source: USTR; IDB Integration and Trade Sector based on INTrade.

RTA Expansion 2014

World is moving on… TPP moving on without U.S., TPP-11

– “Strengthen free and fair trade throughout the Asia-Pacific region”

EU– Japan– Vietnam

Pacific – Alliance– Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru

Mercosur– Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay

RESPONSE

U.S. Bilateral Deals U.S.- Japan economic talks

– Slow, Japanese tepid response to FTA

Asia-Pacific FTA’s

U.K FTA– Comprehensive and international standards are adopted

Time is of the essence

What is NPPC doing? Argentina Australia Brazil China India Jamaica Nigeria

Paraguay Singapore South Africa Taiwan Thailand U.K. Vietnam

QUESTIONS?