Trends & future scenarios in the RAC&HP market By Andrea Voigt, EPEE

INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON GREEN COLD CHAIN TECHNOLOGIES

Beijing – 9 September 2016

1. Small – medium – large size companies

2. Over 200,000 direct employees, over €30bn turnover

3. Production throughout Europe

4. Main Activities:

• Promote Energy Efficiency

• Ensure responsible refrigerant management

• Raise awareness on market surveillance

5. Use of all types of refrigerants

Who is EPEE? The full value chain. A true voice.

The European context: New F-gas Rules to meet ambitious EU targets

The need for a European answer to reduce emissions from HFCs

2006 Fgas Rules would only stabilize emissions The wish to be a leader in terms of combatting climate

change The need to adopt ambitious yet feasible rules.

The Answer: A Phase-Down for the EU

• Not refrigerant specific: Based on CO2-equivalent

• Technology neutral

• Accelerates move towards lower GWP refrigerants

• Encourages containment & end-of-life recovery

• Promotes recycling

• Fosters innovation and competitiveness yet helps to reach environmental objectives

Photo: BSRIA

Flexibility for industry Takes into account market evolution & adaptation But: need to tackle barriers such as training, building codes &

product safety standards

How to get there: Data to understand the market & scenarios for the future….

Study on Phase-down of HFC consumption in the EU: SKM Enviros 2012

1. MARKET SEGMENTATION

2. SUB-SECTOR ASSESSMENT

3. SCENARIO MODELLING

7 main sectors 48 sub-sectors

Understand the market (size, growth rate, refrigerant charge, leakage rate, energy efficiency, capital costs)

Evaluation of alternative refrigerants: energy efficiency, capital, operating costs, and potential barriers (product safety standards, building codes )

Assumption of refrigerant mix up to 2040

Different phase-down scenarios vs BAU

Economic impact in EUR/environmental impact in Tonnes of CO2

….and a Roadmap to achieve the phase-down: The EPEE Gapometer

A 2-stage project to understand and monitor the phase

down of HFCs in the EU

• Stage 1: EU Phase Down Roadmap (developed 2015) – to show how the challenging phase down targets can be met

– creating a good understanding of what actions must be taken

• Stage 2: Monitoring progress (ongoing) – market research to assess the actions being taken

– and to identify any significant “gaps” between required and actual progress

Core actions to achieve the EPEE roadmap

2. Actions for existing equipment

• leak prevention

• retrofit with low GWP alternatives

Existing Equipment

1. Actions for new equipment

• use lower GWP alternatives

• design for less refrigerant charge and low leakage

New Equipment

3. Use of reclaimed refrigerant

• recovered from equipment at end-of-life

• recovered during retrofit of existing equipment

Reclaimed Refrigerant

Contributions from core actions

Cuts in MT CO2

New Equipment

-36 -64

Reclaimed Refrigerant

-24

-20

Existing Equipment

-30

-39

Cuts in MT CO2

-47

-15

-12

-51

-15

-15

-20

-14

Chillers

Transport

Commercial Refrigeration

Industrial Refrigeration

SAC Mobile AC

Non RAC

Contributions from main market sectors

Small hermetic Condensing units Large packs

Example of roadmap scenario: Modelling assumptions

• early switch from R-404A to lower GWP alternatives

• small split air-conditioning: switch from R-410A to R-32 and HFC/HFO blends

• retrofit of R-404A systems affected by service ban

• significant efforts made to reduce leakage in large commercial refrigeration systems

• significant use of reclaimed refrigerants between 2017 and 2025

Existing Equipment

New Equipment

Reclaimed Refrigerant

Commercial Refrigeration

R-404A is quickly phased out in new commercial refrigeration equipment It is replaced with a range of different low GWP alternatives

R-404A

CO2

Lower Flammability blends

R-134a

Non-flammable blends (GWP 1400 – 2100)

% of total tonnes of refrigerant used in new equipment

New Equipment

New small / medium split air-conditioning equipment

New Equipment

R-410A is phased out in new split air-conditioning It is replaced with lower flammability refrigerants

R-410A

R-407C

R-32 and

R-32 / HFO blends

% of total tonnes of refrigerant used in new equipment

Leakage assumptions for 3 market sectors

By 2018 we need average leakage from commercial

refrigeration below 10%

Existing Equipment

Retrofit of R-404A bank Existing

Equipment

We need nearly half of supermarket packs retrofitted

by end 2017 – a tough challenge

Amount of reclaimed / recycled refrigerant

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2018 2021

Total AvailableMT CO2

Reclaim forecastMT CO2

79 MT

88MT

66MT

6% 27% 31%

% of available reclaimed

Assumed reclaim rates can be improved if proper action is taken

If reclaim rate is doubled the impact on the required cuts will be very significant – an extra 20 MT CO2 cut in both years

But, significant new infrastructure required to support active reclaim industry

Reclaimed Refrigerant

• an early move away from R-404A in new systems is important

• introduction of a range of new lower GWP fluids for new equipment and products needs to be done quickly – but impact will probably be after 2018

• wider use of flammable refrigerants (both A3 and A2L) is vital

• early retrofit of R-404A is crucial

• leak prevention remains important – proper implementation of rules in the EU F-Gas regulation is key

• compliance with mandatory recovery rules is important

• setting up a good infrastructure for reclaim / recycling is crucial

• safety codes / legislation and training issues must be addressed

• the 2018 phase-down step cannot be achieved if everyone waits for bans

What does the roadmap scenario tell us?

Existing Equipment

Reclaimed Refrigerant

New Equipment

Other issues

Next Steps: Stage 2 of the Gapometer – Monitoring progress

OEM Survey – nearly finished

(manufacturers of RAC&HP equipment)

Supermarkets Survey – started

(main supermarket chains)

Recycling/Reclaim Survey - upcoming III

II

I

Conclusions

• Policy decisions need to be based on solid data.

• In Europe (and beyond) change is

happening already today: – Move to lower GWP technologies is a

must. – Critical to look at barriers in any

previsions / assumptions.

But then we must work to continuously assess and address them! – Product safety standards, building

codes – Training – Awareness & communication…

Want to know more about the industry in Europe? Come to EUREKA 2016!

13 DECEMBER – THE HAGUE – THE NETHERLANDS

More info: http://www.eureka-hvacr.eu/ Register for free: http://www.eureka-hvacr.eu/register/

Four Panels:

Reducing food waste

Indoor Air Quality & Thermal Comfort

F-Gas rules and their impact

Energy efficiency in buildings

Organised by EPEE & EVIA The European heating,

cooling, refrigeration and ventilation industry

associations

Thank you very much for your attention!

For further information, please contact: EPEE Secretariat: secretariat@epeeglobal.org Andrea Voigt: a.voigt@epeeglobal.org

Questions?

@EPEEsecretariat