introducing scenaria, inc. - october 2011
DESCRIPTION
Scenaria, Inc. (scenaria.com) is a member of The AVL Group and a leader in analytics-based strategic planning. We leverage model-based market research and planning methods to support objective and informed decisions concerning technology, products, and capacity.TRANSCRIPT
October 2011
Leaders in analytics-based strategic planning
Technology Planning
For All Scenarios
Where Do You
Invest Scarce Resources?
How Do You Address Uncertainty?
Economic
Political
Social Technological
Environmental
Legal
Economic Uncertainty
Predict the average price for a gallon of
gas in 2025 (Reg. Unleaded in USD)
Text Your Choice To 1-747-444-3548
$3.00 = 146727
$4.00 = 146729
$5.00 = 146731
$6.00 = 146735
$7.00 = 146736
$8.00 = 146737
Visualizing Your Technology Options
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
7
Full Hybrid /
EV Technology
Engine
Technology
Transmission
Technology
Mild Hybrid
Technology
Vehicle
Technology
Pre
fere
nc
e R
an
kin
g (
-)
Fuel Economy Improvement (%)
(%)
Gas Price
$3
Example Data
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
7
Full Hybrid /
EV Technology
Engine
Technology
Transmission
Technology
Mild Hybrid
Technology
Vehicle
Technology
Pre
fere
nc
e R
an
kin
g (
-)
Fuel Economy Improvement (%)
(%)
Gas Price
$8
Example Data
Impact of Uncertainty on Technology
Legal Uncertainty:
Predict the annual percentage increase
regulated by the 2017-2025 fuel
economy standards
Text Your Choice To 1-747-444-3548
3% = 145122
4% = 145124
5% = 145135
6% = 145138
Efficient Frontier
Full Field of
Options Lowest Cost
Solution
All Technology
Combinations
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Fu
el E
co
no
my
(M
PG
)
Added Cost per Vehicle (USD)
$ 0 $ 2,000 $ 4,000 $ 6,000 $ 8,000 $ 10,000 $ 12,000
Example Data
Visualizing Your Vehicle Options
3%
6%
4%
5%
Impact of Uncertainty on Vehicles
Annual Increase In
Fuel Economy (2020)
scenaria.com
Think forward. Choose wisely.