investor presentation - groupe casino fr · investor presentation november 2014 . ... sources: cia...
TRANSCRIPT
KEY MILESTONES IN THE GROUP’S HISTORY
1898 : Geoffroy Guichard founds “Magasins Casino”
1901 : Launch of the first Casino private-label
1992 : Casino acquires Rallyes’ retailing business
1996 : First equity stake in Monoprix
1997 : Casino acquires the Franprix and Leader Price networks
1998 : Internationalization, acquisition of retailing companies located in :
1998 – 2002 : Asia : Big C (Thailand)
Vindemia (Vietnam)
2005 -2007 : Latin America : Libertad (Argentina)
Exito (Colombia)
GPA (Brazil)
2000 : Casino acquires Cdiscount
2005 : Jean Charles Naouri, controlling shareholder, becomes CEO
2012 : Casino takes effective control of GPA
2013 : Casino becomes the sole owner of Monoprix
2014 : Creation and listing of a global e-commerce pure player
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IN FRANCE, CASINO HAS UNDISPUTED LEADERSHIP IN CONVENIENCE FORMATS
H1 2014 figures
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Number
of stores
Average retail
space in sqm
444 c.1,600
601 c.1,200
886 c.420
1,450 c.160
914 c.270
1,708 c.100
Others (corners,…) 2,718 ns
Casino believes in smaller formats :
Various, segmented and flexible, they perfectly fit
the customers’ needs and behaviors for a more
diversified and easy-to-reach choice
Casino’s proximity stores in France
North-West
North-East
South-West
South-East
6%
39%
14%
41%
AND OPERATES TWO TYPES OF VALUE FORMATS
Hypermarkets with a dual model, retail and commercial real estate :
Géant : 126 stores*
Mercialys (Casino’s affiliate in commercial real estate) operates 91 sites including 61shopping centers with 588,300 m² of GLA in 2013
Discount stores :
Leader Price : 728 stores* (82% owned stores and 18% under franchise)
* October 2014
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CASINO HAS A DIVERSIFIED AND RESILIENT MIX OF FORMATS
2013 French sales by format (excluding petrol)
* Casino supermarkets, Franprix, Monoprix, superettes, restauration ** Leader Price
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Convenience
formats*
55%
Hard
discount**
14%
Géant (HM)
23%
Cdiscount
8%
Géant (hypermarkets) :
Private label products
Emphasis on fresh food offerings
50,000 SKUs on average
Leader Price (hard discount) :
Neighbourhood discount store , mainly outside the Paris region
Low costs, discount prices and a single brand-banner
4,000 SKUs on average
Casino supermarkets :
Fair prices, quality and convenient shopping
Private label and basic non-food offer
20,000 SKUs on average
Monoprix (supermarkets/convenience) :
City-centre banners (Monoprix, Naturalia, monop’, …) targeting busy urban shoppers
Present in 228 French cities
High quality food, health & beauty and apparel offer
30,000 SKUs on average
CASINO HAS BUILT ITS INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE WITH A CLEAR FOCUS ON ATTRACTIVE COUNTRIES
Casino has favored countries with the following characteristics:
Fast-growing markets
Large and young population
Business friendly environment
Casino has leading positions in 4 such countries representing c.400 million inhabitants : Brazil, Colombia, Thailand and Vietnam
Large and young populations
Thailand Vietnam Colombia Brazil
Modern trade* Traditional trade
Still low formal distribution Fast-growing markets
France
197
87 70
47
Millions of inhabitants
Thailand Vietnam Colombia Brazil
% of population below 15 years old
20% 25% 27% 26%
Sources: CIA World Factbook (May 2012), IMF World Economic Outlook
Database (April 2012), AC Nielsen , World Bank, Economists Consensus
*as opposed to traditional retail shops,
modern trade refers to a full range of sale
methods based on marketing techniques
0,3
4,9
1,3
5,6
1,0
4,6 4,3
5,8
2014
2015
Expected GDP growth
58%
86%
53% 52%
42%
14%
47% 48%
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CA
EBITDA
BIG C, EXITO AND GPA HAVE POSTED STEADY AND REGULAR GROWTH IN SALES AND EARNINGS SINCE THEIR ACQUISITION BY CASINO
SALES (in BRL millions)
EBITDA (in BRL millions)
SALES (in THB millions)
EBITDA (in THB millions)
SALES (in COP millions)
EBITDA (in COP millions)
9
0
50
100
150
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300
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400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GPA
IBOV
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exito
IGBC
Performance*: +235%
CAGR*: +23.1%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Big C
SET
WHICH HAS TRANSLATED INTO CONTINUOUS OUTPERFORMANCE OF THEIR SHARE PRICE
* Stock market performance in local currency, over the period: 31/12/2008 to 31/10/2014
Performance*: +509%
CAGR* : +36.3%
Performance*: +186%
CAGR* : +19.7%
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Capitalization: €5.0bn
Capitalization: €5.0bn
Capitalization: €8.6bn
FRANCE : A TRANSITION YEAR FOR PROFITABILITY OF OUR RETAIL OPERATIONS
The first 9 months have been characterized by the on-going recovery of Géant hypermarkets
Positive volumes since the end of 2013 and positive traffic in recent months
Following completion of its significant pricing investments, Leader Price is currently positioned as the least expensive banner in the market
Impact of -€60mn on H1 EBIT with similar magnitude expected in H2
Traffic and volumes have begun to resume growth
Resilience of supermarket banners : Casino supermarkets and Monoprix; Q3 trading impacted by adverse weather conditions
Expansion has gained momentum with 189 net stores’ openings* in the first 9 months
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* Excluding scope effect from the convenience segment
PURCHASING PARTNERSHIP WITH INTERMARCHE
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Intermarché and Casino have announced their cooperation in purchasing starting with negotiations for 2015
This peer-to-peer partnership, INCAA, applies to national brands only (in both food and non-food) and should cover €9bn of purchasing
INCAA is today fully operational with one single team
Both companies have very complementary business models with a similar entrepreneurship culture. They will continue to manage and develop their marketing and stores’ strategies separately
INTERNATIONAL : SOLID PERFORMANCE IN A CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
In Brazil, despite a deceleration in sales post World cup, GPA has increased its profitability
Under the impact of numerous action plans, GPA’s consolidated margin rose from 6.1% to 7.2% for the first 9 months of 2014
Casino’s stake in GPA was raised from 38.1% to 41.3%
Exito has enjoyed a steady profitability of 7.7% of EBITDA margin for the first 9 months of 2014 in a very competitive environment
In Thailand, the performance in the first 9 months of 2014 was solid with Big C posting 10.7% of recurring EBITDA margin, up +54bps
Vietnam posted good organic sales growth in Q3 2014
Expansion remains dynamic in 2014 : total net openings of 516 stores since the end of 2013
Forex negatively impacted sales and earnings the first 6 months and was neutral in Q3
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On May 6th Casino announced its plan to create an e-commerce platform combining Cdiscount’s activities in France, Colombia and Asia with those of Nova Pontocom in Brazil
Cnova generated €3.6b of GMV in 2013 with a +25% CAGR since 2008
Cnova posted +30.6% of GMV growth in Q3 2013 and +39% in orders
Cnova’s ordinary shares have begun trading on November 20, 2014 on the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the ticker symbol “CNV”
As of 21 November, Cnova has a market cap of $3.3bn
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
3.6 3.1
2.8
2.3
1.5 1.2
CAGR 25%
Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) (€ billion)
(1) At the end of September, customers who made at least one purchase through our sites during the last 12 months
(2) Total number of orders placed by customers, before cancellation due to fraud detection or customers not paying their order and orders placed in one period but not delivered until the following period
Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Change
GMV (€m) 841.3 1,098.8 +30.6%
Net sales (€m) 678.2 841.4 +24.1%
Active customers(1)
(millions) 10.1 12.9 +27.6%
Orders(2) (millions) 5.6 7.8 +39.0%
Units sold (millions) 9.8 13.5 +38.9%
Cnova’s contribution to Group sales in Q3
CREATING A UNIQUE E-COMMERCE PLAYER
CASINO CONTINUOUSLY MAINTAINS A STRONG FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE
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All international subsidiaries are FCF positive :
Strong cash-flow
Rigorous monitoring of capex and positive working capital generation
Casino operates in countries where dividends are fully convertible and can be repatriated without significant tax leakage
Our balance sheet no longer carries significant put options
Casino has a proven track record of optimizing its capital allocation through : Disposals
Asset rotation
Partial recap
HIGH LEVEL OF LIQUIDITY AS OF 30/09/2014
In July, Casino successfully issued a new 12-year bond of €900 million. It is the first 12-year Eurobond completed by an issuer rated BBB-.
Casino Group is rated BBB-Outlook stable by S&P and Fitch Ratings
Constant improvement in the Group's average bond debt maturity, which is of 6.1 years as of 30/09/2014
750
386
552 508
1,000
600
850
1,000 900 900
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Cash and cash
equivalents Undrawn
confirmed lines of credit
650
3,030
€3.7 billion in liquidity* At 30/09/2014
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4.4 4.5 4.8 5.6 6.1
Dec-13 Sept-14 Dec-11 Dec-12 June-14
Average bond debt maturity (in years)
* France scope: Casino Guichard Perrachon, Monoprix, FPLP and others ** Casino Guichard Perrachon bond maturities as of today excluding subordinated debt
Bond maturities** well spread over time
in €m in €m
AS OF TODAY, THE GROUP'S SIZE AND PROFILE ARE PROFOUNDLY TRANSFORMED
E-commerce**
International
France Retail
CONSOLIDATED NET SALES, 2009 / 2013 In € bn
Over the past five years, the Group has nearly doubled in size
It now has an excellent geographical mix. It has primarily developed in sectors and formats in line with current consumption trends :
Discount
Premium
Convenience
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* Proforma 2014: 100% consolidation of Monoprix; Mercialys accounted for under the equity method on 1 January 2013 ** Cdiscount and Nova.com sites
2009: €26.8 bn 2013*: €49.1 bn
56% 33%
62%
4%
38% 6%
ROLL OUT OF THE DISCOUNT BANNERS
In France, at end of Q3 2014, successful price repositioning of Géant and Leader Price
Géant presents an excellent pricing profile and is now a pricing co-leader* in hypermarkets
Leader Price is now the least expensive retail banner in the market*
Internationally, steady expansion in cash & carry and discount
1
20
* Source : Independent panelist
ACCELERATING EXPANSION IN CONVENIENCE 3
STRENGTHENING POSITIONING ON PREMIUM FORMATS
Strengthening the unique positioning on Monoprix, Carulla (Colombia) and Pão de Açúcar (Brazil)
2
In France, continued expansion, in particular under franchise
Internationally, rapid development of convenience formats in Brazil, Colombia and Thailand
21
BECOMING A MAJOR PLAYER IN NON-FOOD E-COMMERCE
Cdiscount is currently one of the leading players in non-food e-commerce in France
Growth will be supported by its price positioning, its successful marketplace and by the specialized as well as international websites (Colombia, Ecuador, Thailand, Vietnam and Ivory Coast)
Cnova Brazil is the fastest-growing e-commerce player in Brazil
Growth will be underpinned by low prices, well-known websites (pontofrio.com, casasbahia.com.br, extra.com.br) and the roll out of its marketplace
4
22
CASINO OPERATES IN A UNIQUE MIX OF COUNTRIES THROUGH LEADING RETAILERS
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H1 2014 Market capitalization (as of 10 October 2014): Bloomberg
#1 retailer
#2 e-tailer
1,992 stores
2.8m m²
#1 retailer
#1 e-tailer
982 stores
0.8m m² Co-leader
in HM
616 stores
1.1m m²
#1 in HM 38 stores 0.1m m²
#4 food retailer
#1 e-tailer
10,155 stores
4.2m m²
France
Vietnam
Thailand Brazil
Colombia Uruguay
€5.0bn market cap.
#1 retailer
54 stores
0.1m m²
€8.9bn market cap.
€9.1bn market cap.
€4.5bn market cap.
BREAKDOWN OF EBITDA AND TRADING PROFIT - FRANCE
(in € millions) H1 2013 published H1 2014
Trading Profit - Retail France 191 165
Franprix-Leader Price 68 5
Monoprix 100 130
Casino France* 23 29
25
* Casino France: excluding Mercialys and including Vindémia
(in € millions)
H1 2013 published H1 2014
EBITDA - Retail France 394 384
Franprix-Leader Price 112 50
Monoprix 138 183
Casino France* 144 151
BREAKDOWN OF TRADING PROFIT - INTERNATIONAL
(in € millions) H1 2013 published H1 2014
TRADING PROFIT - INTERNATIONAL 711 725
Latin America 597 618
Asia 114 107
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H1 2014 HIGHLIGHTS - KEY FIGURES
H1 2014 Organic change
vs. H1 2013 published
Consolidated net sales €23,248m +6.0%
EBITDA €1,353m +9.1%
EBITDA margin 5.8% +17 bp
Trading profit €880m +13.3%
Trading margin 3.8% +26 bp
Net underlying profit, Group share €176m +5.8%*
Cash flow €865m +9.3%*
Net financial debt (€7,836m) - €1,020m
vs. June 2013
27
* At constant exchange rates
Continuing operations
Q3 2014 – CONSOLIDATED NET SALES (BEFORE TAX)
28
CHANGE Q3 2014/Q3 2013
(in €m) Q3 2014 Total
growth
Organic
growth
Total continuing operations
11,967 +1.6% +2.8%
France
5,108 -2.6% -1.6%
International
6,859 +5.0% +6.1%
Excluding changes in scope and calendar effect, organic growth came to +2.8%, of which +6.1% internationally and -1.6% in France
The foreign exchange effect was neutral over the period
The average calendar effect was -0.7% in France and -0.3% internationally
Q3 2014 – PERFORMANCE BY SEGMENT
29
Sales for the food retailing business in France were impacted by the Group’s high exposure to touristic areas, price cuts, and deflation in fruits and vegetables
Food retailing activities in Latin America and Asia posted good performances
The Latam Electronics division posted a slight increase in sales in a context of early sales linked to the World Cup in Q2
The Group's e-commerce activity (Cnova) recorded very strong growth in all zones
(in €m) Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Total growth Organic growth
France Retail 4,920 4,730 -3.9% -2.7%
Latam Retail 3,603 3,776 +4.8% +7.0%
Latam Electronics 1,718 1,754 +2.1% +0.4%
Asia 858 866 +0.9% +3.1%
E-commerce 677* 841 +24.2% +23.6%
* Figures published in 2013
Q3 2014 – PERFORMANCE OF MAIN BANNERS
30
At Géant, FMCG volumes continued to grow (+1.4%) on an already increasing basis in 2013
Same-store sales at Casino Supermarkets were impacted by price cuts, including significant deflation in fruits and vegetables.
Monoprix sales were affected by the 9 p.m. closing time at some stores (impact of -1.1%) and the sale of stores at the request of the French anti-trust authority (impact of -0.5%)
(in €m) Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Total growth Organic growth
Géant Casino 1,307 1,232 -5.7% -3.9%
Casino Supermarkets 943 893 -5.3% -4.4%
Monoprix 944 921 -2.4% -1.9%
Franprix – Leader Price 1,026 1,012 -1.3% +0.2%
Convenience & Other* 701 671 -4.3% -4.3%
* Includes the cafeterias, real estate, other and Indian Ocean activities
GPA SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE AND MINORITY INTERESTS IN BRAZIL
43.3%*
Economic interest (as %)
GPA Food Viavarejo
Casino Group 41.3% 17.9%
Minority interests 58.7% 82.1%
at 9 September, 2014
Minority interests
58.7 %**
41.3%*
* Since 18 December 2013
** Since June 2014
31
Minority interests
56.7 %*
DISCLAIMER
This presentation contains forward-looking information and statements about Casino. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by the words “expects,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “intends,” “estimates” and similar expressions. Although the management of Casino believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of Casino securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Casino, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in Casino’s public filings with the Autorité des marchés financiers (“AMF”), including those listed under “Risk Factors and Insurance” in the Registration Document filed by Casino on 28 March 2013. Except as required by applicable law, Casino undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking information or statements.
This material was prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. All opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice.
This presentation and its contents are proprietary information and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Casino Group.